Money in the Hobby

[Rich Falvo]

I would love to build more 50's to 70's sets, but the fun in that was going to shops and shows with my want lists and working the set. Now, there are very few shows and shops around here anymore. It's not nearly as much fun trying to build a 700 card set buying the cards individually or in small lots online.

[joshuanip]

Originally Posted by Rich Falvo

I would love to build more 50's to 70's sets, but the fun in that was going to shops and shows with my want lists and working the set. Now, there are very few shows and shops around here anymore. It's not nearly as much fun trying to build a 700 card set buying the cards individually or in small lots online.

Yeah it sucks to not have shows, can't window shop and congregate like you use to. Man, I still remember the nationals in the late 80's. There were lines just to get in. And the HOF autograph lines took 1-hour plus (and was a fraction of what they are charging now). Hell, anyone remember the tri-star convention where all the autos were FREE: Campanella, Ali, Namath, Jim Brown, Koufax(?a bit foggy?), list goes on. What a show. I remember my whole family lining up to get admission (auto ticket), rubbing that stamp off our hand, and getting another admission ticket... hahaha, those were fun days.

Obviously our industry has changed, the internet removed transaction costs and improved availability. TPGs providing authenticity and standardized grading, you no longer have to be in person to buy high ticket cards. But the result of that is no longer the need for dealers to pay for booths because it doesnt make economic sense for them to spend on travel, T&E, and booth costs when they can just sell on the internet. And many other dealers changed their stripes from selling vintage to modern pack/box volume (and now to breaks). So what we got remaining is us collectors and dealers who truly love vintage collecting, otherwise they wouldnt tie up their working capital.

The industry is changing, but I think its evolving into something better... because another aspect of admiring cards, is being able to share what we have with others and discussing about it. With message boards, blogs, tweets, facebook groups, we can do that and instantly find people who share common connections on loving cards, old and new. And the popularity of TPG has created a "flytrap" so to speak for this new ecosystem. I am excited with where the hobby is heading, so no doom and gloom here from me...

Except, it pisses me off more the only show relevant locally I can't go because my son has his first dance tonight and I am hosting my old friend to stay over tonight. And tomorrow I have a 40th birthday party to go to for another friend. Higher power up there wants me to save money.

[vintagebaseballcardguy]

Originally Posted by Leon

Collectors should generally be comfortable with the value in their collection, whatever the circumstances might be. If you feel you have too much tied up in it it is easy to right-size it. It is way more fun when it isn't financially burdening, not that any of us would ever do that.

To reiterate others, I don't think baseball card collecting will die off in any of our lifetimes. That said there are fewer and fewer 50s-70s Topps set collectors, just starting sets, and there is an overabundance of those cards in low to mid grade. If I had millions of those I might be a little concerned.

.

I get what you are saying, but the 1960s Topps sets are what I enjoy...commons and all. I have tried other avenues of this hobby but have circled back around to this. I generally work on a set at a time, nothing terribly high grade. This is just a hobby for me, and what I spend on the cards is not a factor in my family's lifestyle. Someday when I am dead and gone, whatever my daughters can get for them will be a bonus.

[Big Six]

Originally Posted by clydepepper

Based on this post, I have one question:





Adam - while I do realize it's a little late in the game, but, would your family be willing to adopt me? I'm 62 and fat, but I am house-broken.

Get in line...I’m 45 and “stocky”!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[btcarfagno]

What perplexes me a bit are the numbers of vintage collectors that were thrown around earlier in the thread. I mean...250,000 to 1,000,000 vintage baseball card collectors? There's no way on God's green earth that the number is anywhere close to those levels. I mean, you get literally two or three new collectors working on certain vintage issues and prices can skyrocket.

If you include even the most casual of collectors of vintage, the number likely doesn't approach 10,000.

As such, it wouldn't take much "new blood" into the hobby to keep things going. There will be ebbs and flows for individual issues or players as there always has been. But to think that the hobby would need to replace 250,000 or more collectors in order for prices not to bottom out is absurd.

[ALR-bishop]

I wonder if Mr Slim still collects baseball cards

http://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=AwrJ6...IAjiML6m5pQIU-

[mechanicalman]

Originally Posted by btcarfagno

What perplexes me a bit are the numbers of vintage collectors that were thrown around earlier in the thread. I mean...250,000 to 1,000,000 vintage baseball card collectors? There's no way on God's green earth that the number is anywhere close to those levels. I mean, you get literally two or three new collectors working on certain vintage issues and prices can skyrocket.

If you include even the most casual of collectors of vintage, the number likely doesn't approach 10,000.

As such, it wouldn't take much "new blood" into the hobby to keep things going. There will be ebbs and flows for individual issues or players as there always has been. But to think that the hobby would need to replace 250,000 or more collectors in order for prices not to bottom out is absurd.

My estimate of 250K was on TOTAL collectors, not vintage. I base that on the fact that there are about 20,000,000 total graded cards. If you make a very general assumption that each collector has 50 graded cards (some have more, some have less, some have none), you'd get about 400K card collectors. Just some rough numbers based on assumptions, but at least they're grounded in some actual data vs. some of the other arguments made in this thread.

That said, I agree with you sentiment that, when it comes to the vintage blue chip cards on which the "market index" is likely based, I'd bet the number of collectors is far smaller. Probably far less than 5k. But that's just gut. I don't think it will take many people to keep prices of blue chips healthy. As for the raw VGEX '65 Orlando Cepeda's...I have no idea what the market will do for those.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by clydepepper

Based on this post, I have one question:


Adam - while I do realize it's a little late in the game, but, would your family be willing to adopt me? I'm 62 and fat, but I am house-broken.

Sorry I maxed out my adopting tolerance when we got Giselle (dog) and Heimao (cat).

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

The market for antique furniture has pretty much collapsed. Anyone I know who were collectors or dealers for a long period of time say the same exact thing- the antique market is dead. Not everything goes up forever.

Boy, someone should tell that to "American Pickers" and possibly "Pawnstars" too--they certainly don't seem to be aware of it.

Hi, Barry!

Larry

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

Agreed.

That's ok if you're a pure collector, but I, and I suspect a significant number of others are more "collestor," i.e., a hybrid, or cross between a collector and investor. Yes, we love our cards,but we also want them to increase in value over time.

Just my two cents worth,

Larry

[barrysloate]

Originally Posted by ls7plus

Boy, someone should tell that to "American Pickers" and possibly "Pawnstars" too--they certainly don't seem to be aware of it.

Hi, Barry!

Larry

Hi Larry,
Every so often Antiques Roadshow airs an episode taped 10-15 years ago, and after the expert estimates the value, they will show you what that same piece is worth today. Only rarely is something worth more, and the vast majority of the pieces will have lost 25-50% of their value. Also, any antique collector I have spoken with has the same pessimistic response: the market is dead. I'm sure you can always find someone who feels otherwise.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by nat

An idea was floated above that these threads get started out of fear. That sounds right. But if your hobby is making you afraid, something has gone wrong. It's a hobby, it's supposed to be fun.

For my part, I don't know what the baseball card market is going to do, but I sincerely hope for a sharp drop. I'd be happy to buy Ruths and Gehrigs all day, once their prices fall enough that they cost "just for fun" money and not "double check to make sure that I can make the car payment" money.

Ah, but there are so many of you pure collectors for the moment that it wouldn't be long before their prices started rising at a substantial rate again! Simply demand vs supply once more reaching their natural equilibrium again. Which is a good thing!

Best to all,

Larry

[Steve_NY]

I tend to agree with Adam, and have been telling collectors since 1976 "when they ask" to "buy what they like" because the chances of making huge gains quickly is often slim to none. On the contrary, I have bought collections and items during a day at a show, and broke them up later in the day and sold them for a large profit. But every sports card dealer has such stories.

I find three types of collectors:

1 -- those that buy what they like or collect

2 -- those that are just investors, and

3 -- a combination of 1 and 2.

I buy for resale and can spot a true #1, #2, or #3 immediately. But I also think that there will always be opportunity to make a killing if you pick the right items.

Look at "Black Panther" which has made over $1 billion; did comic book collectors know that there early Black Panther comics would ever be worth big bucks?

Collectors kept them, and now investors are jumping in.

It can happen when you least expect it.

Look what Shaq and Jordan and Gretzky did for their respective sports card collectors.

My 2 cents: Collect what you like, and hope to make a profit someday, if that day ever comes.

Steve

[rjackson44]

Agree with Steve ,,

[Exhibitman]

We've all got flip stories, Steve. Many of us have also won a round or two of PSA lotto (I just took a risk on a raw card that came back an 8 and parlayed $90 plus a grade fee into $750, if the card was to go for sale, which it isn't). I even pulled a pricey insert card out of a pack once (1997 Topps, pulled the Jeter signed insert; still one of my favorite cards).



My point isn't so much that money isn't/shouldn't be a concern as it is that the obsession over what card collecting will be like in 10-20-30 years from now based on financial concerns is just a bit silly in the context of a pasttime. Unless you (the hypothetical "you", not you specifically) are making a living on this, the idea of this should be a diversion from work and money and other real world concerns, as Burdick says in the intro to the ACC. If you're going to replicate the financial stress of retirement planning, get out of cards, put the money that 'has to' work for you in equities, and go to a stock chatroom instead of here.

[Stampsfan]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

...If you're going to replicate the financial stress of retirement planning, get out of cards, put the money that 'has to' work for you in equities, and go to a stock chatroom instead of here.

+1.

Separate that money. I'm a pretty avid golfer, but I don't buy a new driver or wedge every year. I'd rather buy cards. However I have buddies that spend money on new clubs of some sort every year. That is where they choose to spend their extra cash. Their retirement money is not tied up in clubs, and I'm sure they don't sit around hoping the M1 driver they bought a few years ago is worth more today than it was. It doesn't even enter into the discussion.

I bought cards before the big money got in. I'll buy cards after the "crash" that so many folks believe will come. The fact that my hobby has increased in value is simply a pleasant byproduct, but not something I depend on or worry about.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

My point isn't so much that money isn't/shouldn't be a concern as it is that the obsession over what card collecting will be like in 10-20-30 years from now based on financial concerns is just a bit silly in the context of a pasttime. Unless you (the hypothetical "you", not you specifically) are making a living on this, the idea of this should be a diversion from work and money and other real world concerns, as Burdick says in the intro to the ACC. If you're going to replicate the financial stress of retirement planning, get out of cards, put the money that 'has to' work for you in equities, and go to a stock chatroom instead of here.

+1. Even if you're a "collestor" (Steve's #3), your retirement money should be primarily in other areas where it can work for you. If your collection turns out to appreciate in value, great; if not, you'll have your other avenues going for you.

Best to all,

Larry

[Leon]

Originally Posted by ls7plus

+1. Even if you're a "collestor" (Steve's #3), your retirement money should be primarily in other areas where it can work for you. If your collection turns out to appreciate in value, great; if not, you'll have your other avenues going for you.

Best to all,

Larry

I have found a balanced approach is best for me, as others have alluded to also.

.

[Rhotchkiss]

I am most definately a #3 on steve’s list above. I love cards, and have been collecting on and off my whole life, but my collecting now is much more focused on long term appreciation, as I view cards as an alternative investment. Again, I believe the upside is long term and I expect to keep most of the cards I acquire for 10+ years, and with a little luck, I will sell when I want to (not because I have to). I also focus primarily on the blue-chip - Cobb, Wagner, Jackson, Ruth, rare back t206 and t206 HOFers, etc. I have seen great cards of great players (Clemente, mantle, Rose, Aaron), retain their value and go up a lot over the past 30+ years, and I believe (strongly) that will continue - although I am banking this time around on the 50 year older versions of the aforementioned list.

[Touch'EmAll]

Bingo - balanced approach, aka diversification. They belong as a part of my overall portfolio. To me, YES, cards are investment. Trust me, if I thought cards will decrease in value, I would stop. Kind of a trick though - which cards are good cards for investment? My guess, like so many here are vintage higher end upper tier HOFers.

[MVSNYC]

Adam- great, rookie-era Jeter sig.

[mark evans]

I agree with those who advise against buying cards for their investment value.
I believe that the past performance of cards is no indication of their future performance. The fact that '52 Mantles have gone through the roof over the last 20 years is no indication that they will continue to increase in value, or even maintain their value, over the next 20 years in my opinion.

[JeffPrice]

The best of the best is the safest bet in my opinion. Art, Porsches, coins, etc. the high end has always been the safest and has highest return for decades. Now with said in cards I'm talking low- low pops. A Hank Aaron 10 will always have enough buyers with crazy money who want it. An Aaron 8 on the other hand will fluctuate with the economy /market.

[Touch'EmAll]

Like it or not, believe it or not, take it with a grain of salt. Forbes published article this February about how quality vintage cards have outperformed the S&P 500 during both the last 5 years and the last 10 years. That PWCC dude, Brent, has come up with an "index" with pretty darn solid evidence of conclusion. Thing is, remember, these are waterfront cards, not all the rest. They did not analyze cards such as T206 Lajoie, Exhibit Hornsby, Goudey Carl Hubbell, or Johnny Bench type cards which can typically be a large part of our own actual collections. And this is during one of the largest upticks in stock market history. Hmm.

[MR RAREBACK]

I want the list of the best 500 cards

[Exhibitman]

Mike: that's why I love the card--great design and a rookie-era still decent looking signature. So many players end up stylizing their signatures to the point where they look like hieroglyphics instead of autographs.

I saw that Forbes story. Not surprising since equities shat the bed in 2008 and spent most of the last decade making up lost ground.

[Touch'EmAll]

The stock market collapse was at its worst rock bottom in early 2009. 3 years later, by early 2012 the DOW had recovered to it pre-collapse days. We have had 6 years of solid uptick since.

[Exhibitman]

Good for the stock market.

[Touch'EmAll]

Nice one. And having outperformed stocks, lets get a rousing Standing O for baseball cards !

[silvor]

Originally Posted by 100backstroke

Like it or not, believe it or not, take it with a grain of salt. Forbes published article this February about how quality vintage cards have outperformed the S&P 500 during both the last 5 years and the last 10 years. That PWCC dude, Brent, has come up with an "index" with pretty darn solid evidence of conclusion. Thing is, remember, these are waterfront cards, not all the rest. They did not analyze cards such as T206 Lajoie, Exhibit Hornsby, Goudey Carl Hubbell, or Johnny Bench type cards which can typically be a large part of our own actual collections. And this is during one of the largest upticks in stock market history. Hmm.

Here's the article: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidse.../#7422c61064b1

What he fails to add is the reinvesting of dividends. Most everyone reinvests dividends, and if you add them in, like you should, the return is 142% on the Jan 2008 to Feb 2018.

And what are the 500 cards? And the grades of each card?

I think he's being very selective to get his numbers to push his point.

Additionally, you can invest $1 in the S&P. I'm sure whatever the top 500 cards are, you aren't getting one of them for $1.