Money in the Hobby

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by packs

Over the next 20 to 30 years I think there will be a HUGE drop in prices for cards. When boomers die out and new buyers are scarce, you'll see lifetime collections go for a fraction of what they would today.

I agree that cards will take a dive in price but for completely different reasons. Between shill bidding, card doctors, and counterfeiting something is going to bring this hobby down.

I would love to know the % of T206's that have had nothing done to them, bet it is pretty low number. Would also like to know the % on "new" old cards in the hobby, bet that number would also surprise most.

To be fair I have been saying this for some time and it hasn't happened yet.

[joshuanip]

Originally Posted by bnorth

I agree that cards will take a dive in price but for completely different reasons. Between shill bidding, card doctors, and counterfeiting something is going to bring this hobby down.

I would love to know the % of T206's that have had nothing done to them, bet it is pretty low number. Would also like to know the % on "new" old cards in the hobby, bet that number would also surprise most.

To be fair I have been saying this for some time and it hasn't happened yet.

There will always be "authentication" issues like this, which is why TPGs are vital to this industry. There always is a side story to how much we can depend on TPGs, but that is a separate debate discussed earlier on this site.

That said, same can be said for artwork. When I was looking to add some cheap paintings to my walls, I was looking into the auctions. Above me, but you want a Jackson Pollock with high provenance, tens of millions. You want one where the auctioneer says they have no history and as is, couple grand...

[MW1]

I agree that cards will take a dive in price but for completely different reasons. Between shill bidding, card doctors, and counterfeiting something is going to bring this hobby down.

I would love to know the % of T206's that have had nothing done to them, bet it is pretty low number.

I see this argument from time to time on these forums and it just doesn't hold much water. I know of nearly a dozen different finds of original and extremely high-grade T206s. And I'm aware of collectors who still have large groups of high-grade, untouched T206s that have never been graded. One collector, in particular, has nearly 1000 of them that would fetch grades in the 7 to 9 range. Another hobbyist has a nearly complete T206 set that is also high grade and 100% original.

T206s were not produced in small quantities and some of them have survived the test of time quite well. With the exception of one or two pedigrees, the vast majority of high-grade T206s encapsulated by the major grading services are 100% legit. I've seen where they come from.

[MW1]

As long as the institution of sports exists, in this case, that of baseball, those items related to it, will have value to collectors.

Prices may fluctuate from time to time and some cards, particularly those that are modern that have manufactured scarcity, may lose a great deal of their value. Vintage cards and memorabilia, however, will always have a following. They are intrinsically linked to the sport of baseball itself, as modern players who excel will always be compared to and measured against the all-time greats of the game.

[LincolnVT]

Buy the best of the best and see an up-side and some financial gain in the long run...or...collect what you like, maybe see some financial gain and be happy in the long run. We're talking baseball cards here folks...America's Hobby...let's not make it only about the money. I've put some hard earned work dollars in to some pieces that I hope will appreciate in my lifetime or in my sons lifetime, but my 1988 ungraded Ken Griffey Jr. Vermont Mariners Minor League card is the only one on the mantle.

[LincolnVT]

Originally Posted by LincolnVT

Buy the best of the best and see an up-side and some financial gain in the long run...or...collect what you like, maybe see some financial gain and be happy in the long run. We're talking baseball cards here folks...America's Hobby...let's not make it only about the money. I've put some hard earned work dollars in to some pieces that I hope will appreciate in my lifetime or in my sons lifetime, but my 1988 ungraded Ken Griffey Jr. Vermont Mariners Minor League card is the only one on the mantle.

PS -- This was an invitation to pick a debate with me about my choice to collect and financially invest in baseball cards.

[seanofjapan]

Originally Posted by LincolnVT

PS -- This was an invitation to pick a debate with me about my choice to collect and financially invest in baseball cards.

OK, I'll bite

Or actually I guess I can't argue since I agree with what you said. I have two kids (both too young to collect, maybe someday but I'm not going to push them into it) and a collection that is worth something but I'm not a blue chip guy or anything like that. I collect what I like rather than what I think will be worth something in the future (partly since I'm pessimistic about the market's future if I viewed it solely as an investment I wouldn't buy anything). I definitely don't view my collection as a serious investment for my kids.

I kind of view the money I spend on cards as being flushed down the toilet, and if in the future they have some residual value then great, it'll feel like I found a bunch of money. I'll either give them to my kids (if they want them) or sell them and divvy up the cash.

My concern now actually is that I have this collection which would easily fetch a decent sum if auctioned on ebay, but nobody else in my family knows what its worth and if I die in an accident or something my wife would probably get ripped off (or at least get a horrible deal) in selling them. This reminds me that I should do something about that.....