OT: Did Adam Dunn ruin his Hall chances

[Runscott]

David, I'm one of the guys who said he isn't HOF-worthy. I was just surprised at the personal shots you took at the guy. Personality and likability are good traits to have, even if you aren't a HOF-calibre baseball player. If Dunn was Albert Bell-like, this thread wouldn't even exist.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Is this thread going to turn into a daily report on Adam Dunn's most recent game? He could bat 1.000 for the rest of the year and it wouldn't change my opinion -- great power, an unusually poor hitter for someone with that much power, walked a lot so it's not quite as bad as it looks from BA alone, weak in other aspects of the game, not even close to HOF caliber.

[CMIZ5290]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Is this thread going to turn into a daily report on Adam Dunn's most recent game? He could bat 1.000 for the rest of the year and it wouldn't change my opinion -- great power, an unusually poor hitter for someone with that much power, walked a lot so it's not quite as bad as it looks from BA alone, weak in other aspects of the game, not even close to HOF caliber.

+1...I agree Peter, the idea of Dunn as a HOFer is almost laughable IMO...

[clydepepper]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Is this thread going to turn into a daily report on Adam Dunn's most recent game? He could bat 1.000 for the rest of the year and it wouldn't change my opinion -- great power, an unusually poor hitter for someone with that much power, walked a lot so it's not quite as bad as it looks from BA alone, weak in other aspects of the game, not even close to HOF caliber.

If he DOES bat 1.000 the rest of the year, suffice it to say, I will try to be open-minded.

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

I've stated that if this is indeed Dunn's last year, then he doesn't make the HOF. But let's say this isn't Dunn's last year. Let's say he goes on to play 3 more years and averages 30 HRs a year and finishes his career with around 550 HRs. Is he a HOFer then?

No.

I respect that you are an Adam Dunn fan. I think he's been a great power hitter, and I also think he's been more than just a power hitter with the walks he's taken. And I think if he reaches 500 home runs without taking any PEDs in an era when many did, he is to be commended.

But I still don't think he's a Hall of Famer. If he manages to hit 500 home runs, he did it by being one of the top home run hitters in the Majors for quite some time. But he was never the best home run hitter. He never led the American league in runs, home runs, RBI, average, slugging average, OBP, or OPS. Not once. In 14 seasons, he never led his league in any of the premier hitting metrics.

He's never won an MVP. But not only has he not won an MVP, he's never finished in the top 5 of any MVP vote. He's never finished in the top 10, or the top 15, or even the top 20 of any MVP vote. His best finish in an MVP race was 21st in 2010. That means every single one of the fourteen years he played, the Baseball Writers thought there were at least 20 other players in the American League...not even in all of baseball, but just in the American League, that were better than Adam Dunn.

Adam Dunn has never won a Silver Slugger. That means he was never even the best power hitter at his position in the American League. There was always somebody better.

There just isn't anything remarkable about Dunn's career. He gets points for longevity, and consistency.

I am a baseball fanatic. I watch 100 games at least every year. I watch the races. I read the newspaper. I subscribe to Baseball America, and MLB.tv, and watch the MLB channel religiously. At no time in the near decade and a half since Adam Dunn has been a Major Leaguer did I consider him a superstar, or Hall of Fame worthy. Again, he walks more than people probably were aware of. But besides the walks, Dunn is a home run hitter with a nearly 35% career strikeout rate. There isn't anything more to him.

You know how many 30 home run seasons there have been between 2001 and 2014?

371

Hitting 30 home runs is good. It is nothing special, however.

What about 40 home run seasons?

There have been 83 40 home run seasons between 2001 and 2014. Ok, that's, of course, tougher to do. Dunn appears on this list six times. Dunn's best season is good for 33rd on the list of best individual home run seasons since 2001. There have been 13 seasons of 50 or more home runs.

But typically, people that hit a lot of home runs and make the Hall of Fame did other things well. Mays and Aaron, Ruth, Frank Robinson, Mike Schmidt, Jimmie Foxx, Willie McCovey, Ted Williams, Ernie Banks, Eddie Matthews, Ken Griffey Jr, Barry Bonds. The other guys were great hitters. Some were elite fielders. Most of them were the best players in baseball at least once or twice in their career.

Dunn never finished in the top 20 of any MVP vote!

Adam Dunn should, and will be remembered as a great power hitter. But he wasn't, at least in my educated opinion, an elite baseball player. He could hit the ball out of the park. When he wasn't hitting a home run, he really wasn't contributing to his team much in an other way.

I just don't see him in Cooperstown.

Edit: by the way, JAWS (Jaffe War Score System) has Adam Dunn listed as the 133rd best left fielder of all-time.

[vintagetoppsguy]

Bill,

Thank you for taking the time to answer my question while others overlooked it. Although it was a hypothetical question (but a realistic possibility), I thought it was a valid question.

You may be right, 550 HRs may not be enough to get him into Cooperstown, who knows? But regardless of all his other stats (low BA, all the SO, etc), there has to be a point where they have to let him in just because of the number of home runs overshadows all the other stats. For example if he ends up playing another 5 years (puts him at 39 years old - again a realistic possibility) averaging 30 HRs a year, he would end up in the ballpark of 600 HRs. I don't think you can keep him out at that point, I don't care if his BA drops to .200 and he SO on every 4/5 ABs. 600 HR is HOF worthy no matter what (again not considering PED issues) in my opinion.

I get what you're saying about no MVP, SS, GG, etc. But there are other players in the HOF that never one any of those titles either. Look at Nolan Ryan. He never won a CY, won only 20 or more games twice in his 27 years, an ERA title only once and lost more games than he won 7 years. Yeah, he won 324 games in his career, but when you consider he played for 27 years, that's only 12 wins a year. He never had any of the accolades that you're (and others) saying Dunn never had. Don't get me wrong, I love Ryan and think he is great. We're from the same home town and I even played ball with his oldest son. But all I'm saying is that all of these titles you're (and others) saying Dunn has never won, well the same can be said for many HOFers.

Regards,

David

Originally Posted by the 'stache

No.

I respect that you are an Adam Dunn fan. I think he's been a great power hitter, and I also think he's been more than just a power hitter with the walks he's taken. And I think if he reaches 500 home runs without taking any PEDs in an era when many did, he is to be commended.

But I still don't think he's a Hall of Famer. If he manages to hit 500 home runs, he did it by being one of the top home run hitters in the Majors for quite some time. But he was never the best home run hitter. He never led the American league in runs, home runs, RBI, average, slugging average, OBP, or OPS. Not once. In 14 seasons, he never led his league in any of the premier hitting metrics.

He's never won an MVP. But not only has he not won an MVP, he's never finished in the top 5 of any MVP vote. He's never finished in the top 10, or the top 15, or even the top 20 of any MVP vote. His best finish in an MVP race was 21st in 2010. That means every single one of the fourteen years he played, the Baseball Writers thought there were at least 20 other players in the American League...not even in all of baseball, but just in the American League, that were better than Adam Dunn.

Adam Dunn has never won a Silver Slugger. That means he was never even the best power hitter at his position in the American League. There was always somebody better.

There just isn't anything remarkable about Dunn's career. He gets points for longevity, and consistency.

I am a baseball fanatic. I watch 100 games at least every year. I watch the races. I read the newspaper. I subscribe to Baseball America, and MLB.tv, and watch the MLB channel religiously. At no time in the near decade and a half since Adam Dunn has been a Major Leaguer did I consider him a superstar, or Hall of Fame worthy. Again, he walks more than people probably were aware of. But besides the walks, Dunn is a home run hitter with a nearly 35% career strikeout rate. There isn't anything more to him.

You know how many 30 home run seasons there have been between 2001 and 2014?

371

Hitting 30 home runs is good. It is nothing special, however.

What about 40 home run seasons?

There have been 83 40 home run seasons between 2001 and 2014. Ok, that's, of course, tougher to do. Dunn appears on this list six times. Dunn's best season is good for 33rd on the list of best individual home run seasons since 2001. There have been 13 seasons of 50 or more home runs.

But typically, people that hit a lot of home runs and make the Hall of Fame did other things well. Mays and Aaron, Ruth, Frank Robinson, Mike Schmidt, Jimmie Foxx, Willie McCovey, Ted Williams, Ernie Banks, Eddie Matthews, Ken Griffey Jr, Barry Bonds. The other guys were great hitters. Some were elite fielders. Most of them were the best players in baseball at least once or twice in their career.

Dunn never finished in the top 20 of any MVP vote!

Adam Dunn should, and will be remembered as a great power hitter. But he wasn't, at least in my educated opinion, an elite baseball player. He could hit the ball out of the park. When he wasn't hitting a home run, he really wasn't contributing to his team much in an other way.

I just don't see him in Cooperstown.

Edit: by the way, JAWS (Jaffe War Score System) has Adam Dunn listed as the 133rd best left fielder of all-time.

[pbspelly]

The last two posts are, in my opinion, the clearest (and most civilized) articulations of the two sides of the Adam Dunn HOF issue that I've read so far. We ought to just erase all the other posts--including my many longwinded and argumentative comments--and close the thread, agreeing that there are differences of opinion over Adam Dunn's value and what truly makes someone HOF-worthy.

[the 'stache]

No problem, David.

Regarding Nolan Ryan, I don't put a lot of weight in his win-loss record. He played for so many bad teams. I'd be willing to bet he was on more losing teams than winning ones. Maybe I'll look at that later tonight. But some of the best pitchers today, like Felix Hernandez and Clayton Kershaw, only have a few 20 win seasons between them, and that's not because of anything they've done. A great pitcher can win fewer games than a good pitcher if that good pitcher has a great defense, and a really potent offense behind them. In 1987, Nolan Ryan led the National League with a 2.87 ERA, in strikeouts, in Fip, in strikeouts per 9 innings pitched, in K:BB ratio, and ERA +. But he was 8-16. Those numbers don't reconcile in my brain.

Ryan has more strikeouts, and more no hitters than anybody in history, and really, there's nobody close to either figure. He has an 839 strikeout lead, and the guy he leads is retired. And the nearest active strikeout pitcher is more than 3,300 strikeouts behind Ryan. And while Dunn didn't lead in any major category, Ryan led his league in strikeouts 11 times, and ERA twice. He holds the single season strikeout record, too, with 383. And he never won a Cy Young, but he finished in the top 5 in Cy Young voting six times.

Also, his 6.6 hits per 9 innings pitched is the best ever. And he did that while pitching 5,386 innings.

I don't know what Adam Dunn would have to do to get in. I don't think there's anything he can do. Even if he hit 600 home runs, I don't think he gets in. He's playing in an era where home runs are plentiful. His one claim to fame is home runs, but he's never been the best at it. Every year, there was at least one guy better than him. He finished second in the league in home runs three times. Third once. Fourth twice. Fifth twice. So again, he was pretty good, but never the best. If he were a big time run producer, that might be a little easier to overlook. But he's not even that great an RBI guy. He's hit 462 homers, and driven in 1,162 runs. He's driven in 700 other base runners besides himself.

If you look at the first two 500 home run guys he'll meet if he gets to 500, here's how they'll match up RBI-wise.

Adam Dunn 462 home runs, 1,162* RBI
Eddie Murray 504 home runs, 1,917 RBI
Gary Sheffield 509 home runs, 1,676 RBI

Say Dunn plays one more year, hits 38 home runs, and drives in 100 RBI. He's at 1,262. He's 414 RBI behind Sheffield, and 655 behind Murray.

Dunn's best RBI seasons are as follows:
106 RBI 2007
105 RBI 2009
103 RBI 2010
102 RBI 2004
101 RBI 2005
100 RBI 2008

Why are his RBI totals so low? Adam Dunn is a career .225 hitter with runners in scoring position. He is a .229 career hitter in high leverage situations. He is a career .237 hitter in medium leverage situations, and a .242 career hitter in low leverage situations. You want your power hitters to perform well in high leverage situations.

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

Bill,

Thank you for taking the time to answer my question while others overlooked it. Although it was a hypothetical question (but a realistic possibility), I thought it was a valid question.

You may be right, 550 HRs may not be enough to get him into Cooperstown, who knows? But regardless of all his other stats (low BA, all the SO, etc), there has to be a point where they have to let him in just because of the number of home runs overshadows all the other stats. For example if he ends up playing another 5 years (puts him at 39 years old - again a realistic possibility) averaging 30 HRs a year, he would end up in the ballpark of 600 HRs. I don't think you can keep him out at that point, I don't care if his BA drops to .200 and he SO on every 4/5 ABs. 600 HR is HOF worthy no matter what (again not considering PED issues) in my opinion.

I get what you're saying about no MVP, SS, GG, etc. But there are other players in the HOF that never one any of those titles either. Look at Nolan Ryan. He never won a CY, won only 20 or more games twice in his 27 years, an ERA title only once and lost more games than he won 7 years. Yeah, he won 324 games in his career, but when you consider he played for 27 years, that's only 12 wins a year. He never had any of the accolades that you're (and others) saying Dunn never had. Don't get me wrong, I love Ryan and think he is great. We're from the same home town and I even played ball with his oldest son. But all I'm saying is that all of these titles you're (and others) saying Dunn has never won, well the same can be said for many HOFers.

Regards,

David

[Peter_Spaeth]

I'm more in the Bill James camp on Nolan Ryan -- he ranks him the 24th best pitcher of all time, considerably lower than most of the public -- but even so there is no meaningful analogy between Ryan and Dunn.

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I'm more in the Bill James camp on Nolan Ryan -- he ranks him the 24th best pitcher of all time, considerably lower than most of the public -- but even so there is no meaningful analogy between Ryan and Dunn.

I didn't mean for it to be an anology between Ryan and Dunn. My comments meant to show that you don't have to have all the titles that everyone keeps referring to (Silver Slugger, MVP, Golded Glove, Cy Young or whatever) to be a HOFer. There are plenty of guys in the HOF w/o any of those awards. Ryan was just one example.

[glynparson]

HE deserves to be mentioned in a display or film, maybe have one of his bats in an exhibit, but he does not deserve induction. I would feel this way even if he reaches 600 HR's.

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

I didn't mean for it to be an anology between Ryan and Dunn. My comments meant to show that you don't have to have all the titles that everyone keeps referring to (Silver Slugger, MVP, Golded Glove, Cy Young or whatever) to be a HOFer. There are plenty of guys in the HOF w/o any of those awards. Ryan was just one example.

I compare Nolan Ryan with Clint Eastwood. Nolan Ryan doesn't have all the awards because he spent the first part of his career entertaining us by throwing hard and raking up strike-outs, but he eventually became a better pitcher, showing more finesse, and I think that made up for the earlier years that were dominated by his strikeout stats....and he created his own award: the "7 no-hitters" award. Not sure Ryan would have made the HOF if he had sputtered out at the same time Carlton did.

Eastwood spent the early part of his career making spaghetti westerns and Dirty Harry movies - very entertaining and making a name for himself (like Ryan's strikeout years with the Angels), but not Oscar-worthy stuff. Like Ryan, he aged well and grew in the latter part of his career, taking some roles that showed that he had some acting skills, and becoming a good enough director. Now he's definitely movie-HOF worthy, but he's no Marlon Brando, just as Ryan is no Mathewson.

[bn2cardz]

The only help Dunn was to his team was hitting home runs, 28.50% of his hits were home runs.

Comparison to the top 10 home run hitters:

Bonds: 25.96%
Aaron: 20.02%
Ruth: 24.85%
Mays: 20.10%
A.Rodriguez: 22.25%
Griffey: 22.65%
Thome: 26.29%
Sosa: 25.29%
F.Robinson: 19.91%
McGwire: 35.85%

McGwire is the only player with a higher percentage of HR/Hit than Dunn on that list. Yet McGwire was able to do it while having a BA of .263 compared to Dunn's BA of .238 (this includes a horrible .159 in 2011).

Dunn did nothing to help in the field, Rpos -109 and his Batting just wasn't enough (Rbat= 218 [with a -27 in 2011, and only 10 seasons with 10 or more runs above average from batting). His horrible fielding combined with his mediocre batting put him -80 RAA, that is runs below the average player in his career. He also has a negative WAA replacement number at -9.2. There were 9 seasons were he was in the negative for RAA, and only one full season where he was above 10 (2004 with 27).

If a player is providing less runs for his team for most of his career rather than adding them he really shouldn't be in the HOF. He just happened to hit the ball a long distance when he happened to make contact, but he rarely made contact.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Runscott

I compare Nolan Ryan with Clint Eastwood. Nolan Ryan doesn't have all the awards because he spent the first part of his career entertaining us by throwing hard and raking up strike-outs, but he eventually became a better pitcher, showing more finesse, and I think that made up for the earlier years that were dominated by his strikeout stats....and he created his own award: the "7 no-hitters" award. Not sure Ryan would have made the HOF if he had sputtered out at the same time Carlton did.

Eastwood spent the early part of his career making spaghetti westerns and Dirty Harry movies - very entertaining and making a name for himself (like Ryan's strikeout years with the Angels), but not Oscar-worthy stuff. Like Ryan, he aged well and grew in the latter part of his career, taking some roles that showed that he had some acting skills, and becoming a good enough director. Now he's definitely movie-HOF worthy, but he's no Marlon Brando, just as Ryan is no Mathewson.

He walked 4.7 batters per nine innings. With better control, we would be comparing him to Mathewson.

[pbspelly]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

He walked 4.7 batters per nine innings. With better control, we would be comparing him to Mathewson.

An interesting thing about Ryan is that it wasn't just about control. A lot of it was his mentality. As Bill James has commented, Ryan's mentality was that no matter what the count, he refused to give hitters anything decent to hit. He would rather walk someone than give in and lay one over the plate. The result is pretty much what you'd expect for someone with great stuff and that mentality - lots of Ks, lots of BBs, and lots of no hitters. And lots of wins and lots of losses.

[glchen]

Originally Posted by pbspelly

... As Bill James has commented, Ryan's mentality was that no matter what the count, he refused to give hitters anything decent to hit. ...

I figured Ryan's mentality would have been: "you can't hit my stuff, I'm just going to blow a heater past you."

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by pbspelly

An interesting thing about Ryan is that it wasn't just about control. A lot of it was his mentality. As Bill James has commented, Ryan's mentality was that no matter what the count, he refused to give hitters anything decent to hit. He would rather walk someone than give in and lay one over the plate. The result is pretty much what you'd expect for someone with great stuff and that mentality - lots of Ks, lots of BBs, and lots of no hitters. And lots of wins and lots of losses.

Not sure where you deduced anything other than "lots of BBs", unless it was from reading the stats in MLB Ref.

[Bored5000]

The Adam Dunn-Nolan Ryan comparison just seems ridiculious, IMO. Even if Ryan's win total is completely discounted, he far and away struck out more batters than any man in the history of the game and threw three more no hitters than anyone else in the history.

On the four "Hall of Fame Statistics" metrics on baseball-reference.com, Ryan easily qualifies in all four metrics on what is a Hall of Famer. Adam Dunn does not make the threshold for what constitutes a Hall of Famers in any of the four metrics. Even more damning, the best Dunn ranks on any of the four metrics is 257th all-time. That is a Hall of Famer?

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by Bored5000

The Adam Dunn-Nolan Ryan comparison just seems ridiculious, IMO.

Let me say it one more time for those that have a problem understanding my point. It was not a Dunn-Ryan comparison. It was meant to show that one doesn't have to win certain awards to be inducted into the HOF. Earlier in the thread, several people mentioned that Dunn never won a MVP, etc., and therefore that was one of the reasons that he wouldn't be considered for the HOF. Ryan was mentioned (I could have used several other players to make my point, he just came to mind first) because he too never won an individual award (e.g. Cy Young), but it didn't keep him from the HOF.

My whole point is that one doesn't have to win a GG, SS, MVP, Cy Young, ROY, etc, to make the HOF. I simply made my point with Ryan, again it could have been one of many other players instead. If you still don't get my point, then maybe it's my fault. Maybe I'm not explaining it well.

[Centauri]

Close in awards also matters. Ryan was top ten in Cy Young voting 8 times, top 20 in MVP voting 3 times. Dunn's best is a #21 finish in the MVP vote. IT is a terrible comparison. Ryan is a true all-time great, even among the HOF guys he is way up there. Dunn is just a guy - a good player, earning a good living playing baseball, soon to be forgotten.

[nolemmings]

It isn't about not winning an MVP. It's about not ever even being close to being an MVP. How can you claim to be a prominent player in your league if you never lead that league in any meaningful stat and you are not deemed to even make the top 20 in MVP?

Ryan finished in the top 5 in Cy Young voting 6 times, and twice more in the top 10. He led the league in strikeouts --the meaningful kind where you throw the ball and not swing and miss-- 11 times and in ERA twice. Dunn?

Edited to add: I'm slow on the switch, that'll teach me to answer the phone!

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

Let me say it one more time for those that have a problem understanding my point. It was not a Dunn-Ryan comparison. It was meant to show that one doesn't have to win certain awards to be inducted into the HOF. Earlier in the thread, several people mentioned that Dunn never won a MVP, etc., and therefore that was one of the reasons that he wouldn't be considered for the HOF. Ryan was mentioned (I could have used several other players to make my point, he just came to mind first) because he too never won an individual award (e.g. Cy Young), but it didn't keep him from the HOF.

My whole point is that one doesn't have to win a GG, SS, MVP, Cy Young, ROY, etc, to make the HOF. I simply made my point with Ryan, again it could have been one of many other players instead. If you still don't get my point, then maybe it's my fault. Maybe I'm not explaining it well.

David - you have brought up two HOF'ers (Ryan and Ozzie) during a discussion of whether or not Dunn is worthy. If you aren't comparing him to either of these guys, then please find a current HOF'er to actually compare him to. The Adam Dunn total package is lacking. The Nolan Ryan total package is better.

[D. Bergin]

Jeez, if a guy like Jeff Bagwell can't get much more then 50% of the vote, I really can't see Dunn getting the benefit of the doubt, even if he all of a sudden has a historical resurgence and ends up with 700 HR's.

If players like Dick Allen, Albert Belle, Frank Howard, Alan Trammell, Lou Whitaker, Dale Murphy can't even come close to sniffing the Hall, then Dunn won't get out of the first year of eligibility.

I remember guys belly-aching on here when Jim Rice got in, and he was the premier power hitter in the AL for nearly a decade.

[CMIZ5290]

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

Jeez, if a guy like Jeff Bagwell can't get much more then 50% of the vote, I really can't see Dunn getting the benefit of the doubt, even if he all of a sudden has a historical resurgence and ends up with 700 HR's.

If players like Dick Allen, Albert Belle, Frank Howard, Alan Trammell, Lou Whitaker, Dale Murphy can't even come close to sniffing the Hall, then Dunn won't get out of the first year of eligibility.

I remember guys belly-aching on here when Jim Rice got in, and he was the premier power hitter in the AL for nearly a decade.

Well said Dave....

[glchen]

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

Jeez, if a guy like Jeff Bagwell can't get much more then 50% of the vote, I really can't see Dunn getting the benefit of the doubt, even if he all of a sudden has a historical resurgence and ends up with 700 HR's.

If players like Dick Allen, Albert Belle, Frank Howard, Alan Trammell, Lou Whitaker, Dale Murphy can't even come close to sniffing the Hall, then Dunn won't get out of the first year of eligibility.

I remember guys belly-aching on here when Jim Rice got in, and he was the premier power hitter in the AL for nearly a decade.

I think the reason that Dunn is being argued is that if he continues his career, he may pass the 500 HR plateau. Previously, 500 HR's was a lock for the HOF, similar to 300 wins or 3000 hits. However, b/c of Dunn's historically low batting average and lack of MVP vote credentials, he would be one of the hitters that really would be stretching this milestone number. For the other hitters that were mentioned, either they have had some suspicion of PED use or they never hit the 500 HR number. I'm pretty sure most people believe that Dunn is clean especially b/c of his batting average number. He's like a Dave Kingman as others have mentioned.

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by glchen

I think the reason that Dunn is being argued is that if he continues his career, he may pass the 500 HR plateau. Previously, 500 HR's was a lock for the HOF, similar to 300 wins or 3000 hits. However, b/c of Dunn's historically low batting average and lack of MVP vote credentials, he would be one of the hitters that really would be stretching this milestone number. For the other hitters that were mentioned, either they have had some suspicion of PED use or they never hit the 500 HR number. I'm pretty sure most people believe that Dunn is clean especially b/c of his batting average number. He's like a Dave Kingman as others have mentioned.

Gary, I've said it before but I think you missed it: the statement that 500 HR's is a lock for the HOF is FAILED LOGIC. '500 HRs' is not why these guys got into the HOF - it is only part of it. The guys with 500 HR's did a lot more than just hit 500 HR's. Adam Dunn has done a lot less.

[Davino]

FWIW, I used Dunn in a video game and he had TREMENDOUS power that stood out from even established home run hitters. LOL, this thread has been done to death.

[Peter_Spaeth]

[QUOTE=vintagetoppsguy;1318369}
I realize we're only 3 games into the month, but isn't 4 for 8 with 2 HRs and 4 RBIs is a pretty good start to September, or am I missing something?[/QUOTE]

How's Adam doing, we haven't heard from you?

[sportscardtheory]

To me, a "clean" 600 HRs is the new lock for Hall induction.

[sayhey24]

Just for fun, mlb.com does a quick glance at every player's last 10 games. in his last 10 games, Adam Dunn is batting .200 with 0 home runs and 8 strikeouts. He has however, scored 1 run.

Greg

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

How's Adam doing, we haven't heard from you?

Since joining the A's, he's batting .278 (better than his career average) with 2 HRs and 7 RBIs. Adam will be gald you asked about him

[packs]

I still believe that 500 homers is the magic number and should be a lock. The only players to eclipse that mark and not be voted in are suspected or admitted cheaters. If you have to cheat to accomplish a feat like 500 homers, then that must mean there is some significance to the accomplishment.

Craig Biggio reached 3,000 hits without ever being a great player. No MVP awards, though he did receive votes. Since he didn't make it, is the new number 3,500 hits? 3,250?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

Since joining the A's, he's batting .278 (better than his career average) with 2 HRs and 7 RBIs. Adam will be gald you asked about him

Don't sell that pile of Dunn rookies just yet!!

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Don't sell that pile of Dunn rookies just yet!!

That's my retirement fund. Who needs a 401k?

[pbspelly]

Originally Posted by packs

I still believe that 500 homers is the magic number and should be a lock. The only players to eclipse that mark and not be voted in are suspected or admitted cheaters. If you have to cheat to accomplish a feat like 500 homers, then that must mean there is some significance to the accomplishment.

Craig Biggio reached 3,000 hits without ever being a great player. No MVP awards, though he did receive votes. Since he didn't make it, is the new number 3,500 hits? 3,250?

Biggio will eventually make it. He only missed by two votes, and no player has debuted on the ballot with more votes and been shut out in the end. And besides Gil Hodges and Jack Morris, every player who has ever received at least 50 percent of the vote has ultimately landed in Cooperstown — either by election or via the veterans committee.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by Runscott

Gary, I've said it before but I think you missed it: the statement that 500 HR's is a lock for the HOF is FAILED LOGIC. '500 HRs' is not why these guys got into the HOF - it is only part of it. The guys with 500 HR's did a lot more than just hit 500 HR's. Adam Dunn has done a lot less.

I agree that 500 is not a lock. Adam Dunn is a liability to a team and should hold the record for the worst season in 2011 (but the manager played the stats game and kept him out of 6 extra at bats to make sure it didn't go down as a full season).

Originally Posted by packs

I still believe that 500 homers is the magic number and should be a lock. The only players to eclipse that mark and not be voted in are suspected or admitted cheaters. If you have to cheat to accomplish a feat like 500 homers, then that must mean there is some significance to the accomplishment.

Craig Biggio reached 3,000 hits without ever being a great player. No MVP awards, though he did receive votes. Since he didn't make it, is the new number 3,500 hits? 3,250?

Craig Biggio contributed a lot more to his team than Dunn did. Biggio's RAA (runs above average) is 306, with 257 coming from batting. Dunn's RAA is -82, he even has a worse number with batting than Biggio at 217.

The HOF should be smarter than looking at one stat, and they have been. No one has gotten in as a player with a negative RAA that I have seen (I could have missed someone EDIT - I looked through every HOF and there is one with a negative RAA: Lloyd Waner had a -4).

Here is a list of everyone with more career home runs than Dunn and their RAA. The lowest is 136 with Canseco. The lowest HOFer is 213 with Winfield.

RAA		# HR
1243	Barry*Bonds*(22)	762
862	Hank*Aaron+*(23)	755
1327	Babe*Ruth+*(22)	714
1041	Willie*Mays+*(22)	660
796	Alex*Rodriguez*(20, 38)	654
482	Ken*Griffey*(22)	630
383	Jim*Thome*(22)	612
301	Sammy*Sosa*(18)	609
613	Frank*Robinson+*(21)	586
379	Mark*McGwire*(16)	583
280	Harmon*Killebrew+*(22)	573
291	Rafael*Palmeiro*(20)	569
313	Reggie*Jackson+*(21)	563
363	Manny*Ramirez*(19, 42)	555
681	Mike*Schmidt+*(18)	548
788	Mickey*Mantle+*(18)	536
695	Jimmie*Foxx+*(20)	534
274	Willie*McCovey+*(22)	521
393	Frank*Thomas+*(19)	521
949	Ted*Williams+*(19)	521
692	Albert*Pujols*(14, 34)	518
284	Ernie*Banks+*(19)	512
578	Eddie*Mathews+*(17)	512
719	Mel*Ott+*(22)	511
270	Gary*Sheffield*(22)	509
242	Eddie*Murray+*(21)	504
862	Lou*Gehrig+*(17)	493
188	Fred*McGriff*(19)	493
809	Stan*Musial+*(22)	475
239	Willie*Stargell+*(21)	475
157	Carlos*Delgado*(17)	473
562	Chipper*Jones*(19)	468
213	Dave*Winfield+*(22)	465
152	David*Ortiz*(18, 38)	463
136	Jose*Canseco*(17)	462
-82	Adam*Dunn*(14, 34)	462

[sayhey24]

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

Since joining the A's, he's batting .278 (better than his career average) with 2 HRs and 7 RBIs. Adam will be gald you asked about him

Those numbers translate to 21 HR and 75 RBI over the course of a 150 game season -- those aren't the numbers you're looking for from a player whose only calling card for the Hall of Fame is his power.

Greg

[nolemmings]

"Adam Dunn is a liability to a team and should hold the record for the worst season in 2011 (but the manager played the stats game and kept him out of 6 extra at bats to make sure it didn't go down as a full season)."

I had forgotten just how awful he was in that 2011 season--his AL debut. He actually had more strikeouts than batting average points 177 to 159. .159? That's below the Mrs. Mendoza line.

EDITED to add: I see where he followed that up with another season of Ks>avg, when he whiffed 222 times and hit .204 in 2012.

[packs]

There's no defending that season. But if you're going to knock him for it then Reggie should be in the conversation too:

1983: hit .194 with 140 K's in 397 AB's with a .290 OBP.

At this point Reggie had not yet hit 500 homers.

[nolemmings]

Conversation maybe, but Reggie still had 11 more hits than Dunn in 99 fewer at bats, and had more HR, RBI and 60 OPS points on Dunn. Oh, and he was 37 years old, not 31 like Dunn, who was coming over to own the AL once he got to put his glove away. Or not.

EDITED TO ADD: Dunn finished 6 plate appearances from qualifying for the batting title. Assuming he went 1-6, a slight increase in his average, he would have finished with the worst BA by a qualifying hitter in 100 years.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by packs

There's no defending that season. But if you're going to knock him for it then Reggie should be in the conversation too:

1983: hit .194 with 140 K's in 397 AB's with a .290 OBP.

At this point Reggie had not yet hit 500 homers.

HAHA that is reaching. Reggie Jackson had already played 15 seasons after his rookie year debut. He was 37 years old.

Also Dunn has 3 worse season's than Jackson's second worst full (or aprox full, I dropped the requirement to more than 400PA, instead of the 502) in 1984.

Dunn's came 11 years after his rookie year debut and was 31. Also Jackson only got 458 PA due to injuries. Dunn only got 496 so that he wouldn't be considered the worst player in history. Again look at the overall RAA for the two players in their career, Jackson was at 313. He still attributed more than the average player did.

[Centauri]

By 1984, Reggie had 13 All Star appearances, 7 top tens in the MVP voting, winning in 73. Plus some medium level of success in the post-season, if I understand it right.

[packs]

I was just talking about all time worst seasons. Reggie's 1983 was pretty awful.

Do you think Reggie gets in first ballot if he retired after 1983?

Final stats if he did retire:

2,176 hits, 478 HR, 1435 RBI, 2106 SO's .268 ave


I have no opinion one way or the other. At least if he had retired in 1983 he would have avoided having more career strike outs than hits.

Keep in mind Reggie is a guy who got 93.62 % of votes in 1993. He received a higher percentage of votes than Ted Williams, Stan Musial, Joe DiMaggio and Roberto Clemente.

[D. Bergin]

These arbitrary HOF "lock" numbers are no longer applicable.

PED's, Bud Selig, Coors Field, the 24 hour news cycle, Advanced metric stats, etc.., etc.....have seen to that.

It's a case by case basis from here on out.

Hell, we might even be entering a new dead ball era. 250 HR's, a .280BA, and a .350 OBP might eventually get you in, if you stay out of the tabloids, don't do drugs, play with the right team, and inflate your Defensive WAR stats by cutting in front of team-mates to catch routine fly balls (Hello Jason Heyward).

[Peter_Spaeth]

Reggie was a rare player who was bigger than his stats due to his nickname, personality, and flair for the dramatic. The list goes on and on: the light tower home run, the straw that stirs the drink, the Reggie bar, being yanked from right field on national TV, and of course all the World Series dramatics. I think at any point after 13 years or so he was a lock first ballot HOFer.

[Runscott]

I was surprised he got in. To me, the HOF is for the truly great players, not just someone who is a personality with a bunch of t.v.-worthy moments and lots of time in the newspaper, along with being a very good, and well-above-average player. It's about 'great'. Unless you are a pitcher, you have to be a great hitter and a great fielder, and hitting involves average - .262 isn't a HOF batting average.

But before you start comparing Reggie to everyone else in the HOF, to me the HOF should be about half its current size.

[Dan Carson]

Who is Adam Dunn???

[Peter_Spaeth]

Scott if you were surprised Reggie made the HOF, you are the only one in the world, is my guess. You may think he doesn't deserve it, but that's a different matter.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by Runscott

I was surprised he got in. To me, the HOF is for the truly great players, not just someone who is a personality with a bunch of t.v.-worthy moments and lots of time in the newspaper, along with being a very good, and well-above-average player. It's about 'great'. Unless you are a pitcher, you have to be a great hitter and a great fielder, and hitting involves average - .262 isn't a HOF batting average.

But before you start comparing Reggie to everyone else in the HOF, to me the HOF should be about half its current size.

I agree, so if Reggie Jackson is a low end HOFer and his stats out rank Dunn's (and not by just a small margin) than it is obvious that Dunn is not a HOF by any stretch of the imagination.

[Runscott]

Peter - I can assure you I was not the only one. .262 is weak by almost anyone's standards. Just as thete are some who think there is an automatic induction number for career hr's, I naively thought there was an automatic exclusion level for batting average, and it had to be somewhere above .262


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