![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
|
#101
|
|||
|
|||
![]() Quote:
Truth is, before now the card hobby hasn't been big and valuable enough for anyone in government to really care. It's a hobby! But with all the increasing value, things like "vaults" being created and companies maybe now starting to push fractional interests in cards, the whole business is starting to look more and more like some investment companies. You and I are long-time CPAs, and of anyone here on this forum, you know exactly how what the TPGs do for this card hobby industry is an outright joke, with absolutely no true oversight, regulation, standardization, and with virtually no consequences or accountability whatsoever for anything they do. Yet we both know that CPAs and TPGs main purpose is to provide the exact same thing.......an OPINION on the state or condition of something! As CPAs though, we go through sooooo much more crap and oversight because our opinions can end up affecting the entire financial markets of the world. But no one in authority apparently gives a rat's ass about a bunch of nerdy collectors accumulating pieces of cardboard. At least not yet! People on here, and elsewhere, had (and occasionally still do) talked long and hard about the FBI investigation into certain players in the card "hobby" industry, and the allegations of alteration fraud and other illegal activities they were suspected of being involved in. And since then many of those same people have bemoaned how it appears nothing has, or ever will, come or be done about any of it. If the card "hobby" industry were subject to some of these much higher levels of scrutiny and oversight as a truly recognized type of investment industry, with true governmental required oversight, like the SEC and FTC has over businesses here in the U.S., I'd venture to guess how much different those FBI investigations may have (or yet) turned out. I say "may" because technically they are still supposedly in an ongoing investigation, but nobody knows or has heard of anything new being done in regard to those investigations for some time now. I have touted here on the forum before how any of us card collectors can be one of three different things; a dealer, collector/hobbyist, or an investor, and how technically anyone can actually be all three at the exact same time. They just have to organize and keep their activities separate, and be sure to prepare and keep as accurate and complete records and data about their separate activities as possible for if/when any of the tax authorities may come calling with questions. I've explained the main different tax consequences/attributes that go with each of these three different types of card owners they can be. And I've seen you post once or twice mentioning the same thing about card collectors being one of these three types as well, so I know we agree on that. What hasn't to my knowledge been directly challenged in tax law going up against the IRS yet is if they will truly recognize that someone selling their baseball cards could strictly be nothing more than an investor. And therefore, when they sell a card they held strictly as an investment, any profit on that sale should be subject to the same maximum 20% federal tax rate on the LTCG, just like from the sales of other traditional investments, like stocks and bonds, and NOT be subject to the currently higher 28% maximum federal tax rate on LTCGs from the sale of a collectible, such as a baseball card. The other major difference is that if a card you sell is a true investment, and not just a collectible, any losses on the sale of an investment would be potentially deductible against other gains and taxable income, but losses as purely collectibles are absolutely not deductible at all, not even against other gains from selling other baseball cards. I'm waiting for one these deep-pocket collectors/investors to sell say a T206 Wagner card for a few million of profit, and then take on the IRS and claim the most they owe in federal taxes on the gain is only 20%, and not 28%. Until you get to a case with enough potential dollars involved, I don't see anyone wasting the time and expense to fight the IRS for maybe just a few hundred or a few thousand dollars. But I firmly believe the argument is valid, and there for someone to eventually act on. And in response to others who had asked what is maybe the difference between a baseball card being a collectible item or being an investment item, though I couldn't/still can't give them an exact, perfect and irrefutable definition and answer, the simplest way I had/have to put and describe it to everyone was, a collectible is something you would put on a shelf or hang on the wall in your man cave or office to show off and tell others about, an investment is something you'd be more likely to keep in your bank safe deposit box or in one of these new vault services that have just in recent years started operating. So when you take an operation like a PWCC or Goldin that has and operates a vault service for their clientele, and they also offer related/combined services to buy and sell those items on behalf of their clientele, it certainly starts to sound/look very similar to what you do when you call or otherwise contact your investment/financial planner/advisor/broker and ask them to buy/sell some stocks or other investments for you, doesn't it? And what is the old saying, if it swims like a duck, looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, it's a................................................. ..... Last edited by BobC; 09-20-2023 at 01:45 PM. |
#102
|
||||
|
||||
![]()
One of the things I've noticed about crypto and meme stocks and card investing is how similarly the participants behave. There is an almost palpable sense of giving the middle finger to The Man in all of it, hence the hostility of the young towards mainstream investments like mutual funds. The card 'bros i see at shows would be right at home selling weed. Same style as the drug dealers who used to supply our highs in college. That makes it harder to promote an investment angle on cards. Too many players want to be 'playas', not investors, and stubbornly resist efforts to professionalize the hobby or make it look like a mainstream investment. So many collectors also like the sheer transgressiveness of buying and selling in cash in a field without much regulation. It gives them that "G's and keys" swagger to throw around cash, feel like a street guy, but with cards and without any real danger. Look at some of the linguistic stylings of the hobby: buyer's premium is "vig", cards are "product", etc. The fact that the authorities don't really seem to care actually is a selling point.
__________________
Read my blog; it will make all your dreams come true. https://adamstevenwarshaw.substack.com/ Or not... Last edited by Exhibitman; 04-07-2023 at 10:46 PM. |
#103
|
||||
|
||||
![]() Quote:
Always thought and still think employment is the highest coefficient in card prices (as it affects demand (by people’s wherewithal) and supply (as people need to sell to fund cost of living). And with that metric we’re doing pretty good. Of course there’s asset beta, which is what we are feeling today, as people “trade” based on how far cards appreciated and where they think cards will go. But as a long term driver, it’s hard to argue against the initial point as to why cards are a good store of value in a diversified asset portfolio. |
#104
|
||||
|
||||
![]() Quote:
![]() They're a lot prettier to look at than a deed.
__________________
Read my blog; it will make all your dreams come true. https://adamstevenwarshaw.substack.com/ Or not... Last edited by Exhibitman; 04-10-2023 at 08:05 AM. |
#105
|
||||
|
||||
![]()
Over/Under on the PSA 1955 Koufax in Goldin was set at $345k.
We are at $258k w/ BP on the one in REA, with 4 days left. I took the under, but doubting that a little Last edited by Rhotchkiss; 04-22-2023 at 07:20 AM. |
#106
|
|||
|
|||
![]()
A Paige mint 9 just sold for $211k at Mile High. A stones throw away from the last sale of $228k which was the only post-pandemic sale and up 7x from the last time one sold in 2018! So the super high end rare stuff is certainly strong. The less rare stuff not so much it seems. I noticed the Seaver rookie for instance still is well off it’s highs from the past few year as one example of a card that while isn’t rare with around 100 mint example, still doesn’t come up every other auction.
|
#107
|
|||
|
|||
![]()
Thanks, Ryan. I’d like to participate, but it’s too painful. In the mid 90’s, I had a chance to buy one for $1,800 (“2 x High Beckett”)… AND I PASSED!
|
#108
|
||||
|
||||
![]()
hi whos buying these cards hedge funds,high end collectors ,,who lol..i just bought a 48 leaf joe gordon almost had a heart attack.
|
#109
|
|||
|
|||
![]()
They seem to change hands like musical chairs from auction house to auction house.
|
#110
|
||||
|
||||
![]()
hi johnny your correct about that and the new stuff trades at huge loses
|
#111
|
|||
|
|||
![]() Quote:
So is some, key word some of the vintage… 52 Mays PSA 8 and 52 Jackie PSA 8 well off their highs. A couple ended last night |
#112
|
|||
|
|||
![]() Quote:
http://milehighcardco.com/1952_Topps...-LOT92067.aspx
__________________
Trying to wrap up my master mays set, with just a few left: 1968 American Oil left side 1971 Bazooka numbered complete panel |
#113
|
||||
|
||||
![]() Quote:
![]() Octavio, I imagine that 99% of the people seeking to buy a card like this, view the card as an asset/investment. Perhaps it is a speculator or Fund of sorts, who simply looks at the card as a commodity. Or, it could be someone, like me, who loves cards and really enjoys owning them, but is really looking at cards as a separate form of investment/asset. For example, Ken Kendrick probably bought the Gretzky Wagner bc he thought it would be awesome to own, but you know he 100% bought it expecting to make money and thinking it was a great place to invest $5mm (or whatever it sold for). Bottom line, the buyer is buying it for investment. |
#114
|
||||
|
||||
![]()
One thing I've thought about is whether being on a multiiplayer RC hurts value. Just seems that quite a few of the "gee, that should cost more" postwar rookies are multiplayer cards.
__________________
Read my blog; it will make all your dreams come true. https://adamstevenwarshaw.substack.com/ Or not... |
#115
|
|||
|
|||
![]()
It certainly hasn't hurt the Ryan rookie being a multiplayer card....
|
#116
|
||||
|
||||
![]()
Robert Edwards has a Koufax PSA 9 ending tomorrow. Let's see where that one ends.
|
#117
|
||||
|
||||
![]()
I actually built a multivariate statistical model to measure the effects of a player's RC being a multi player card, which also measured the effects of their 2nd year card being their first solo card (and not, for those with solo RCs), and the effects of having the rookie cup on the card. The data I collected took all HOFers first 3 years of Topps cards (excluding 52 & 53) and their relative prices in similar grade/value ranges.
I'd have to dig to find it, but I seem to recall that having a multi player RC made it worth something like 30% less on average than it would have been were it to be a solo RC. And that having a 2nd year card with a rookie cup or trophy being a player's first solo card made it worth something like 20% more than it would have otherwise been were that not the case.
__________________
If it's not perfectly centered, I probably don't want it. |
#118
|
|||
|
|||
![]()
Also, they have been many huge finds of High grade 1968 topps. That also must weigh on prices
__________________
"Trolling Ebay right now" © Always looking for signed 1952 topps as well as variations and errors |
#119
|
||||
|
||||
![]()
And the REA Koufax is officially over 345K. We have a winner!
__________________
194/240 1933 Goudeys (Ruth #144, #149, Gehrig #92) 131/208 T205s 42/108? Diamond Stars |
#120
|
||||
|
||||
![]()
Ha, I was just checking that! Now, the over/under was technically on the Goldin 9, which has not yet come to auction (it was in a preview that came out before we knew REA has a 9).
The over/under was $345k and its currently at $384k ![]() |
#121
|
||||
|
||||
![]() Quote:
On the second bet I’m going REA because it was first Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
#122
|
||||
|
||||
![]()
For the past 6-7 years, I have kept a running spreadsheet tracking items that I am interested for sale in current auctions. For each card I am interested in, I track the current bid, the cost with BP, and the cost of the next bid with BP; I also have a side sheet that adds taxes and other expenses, so I can estimate the all-in cost to me. As part of this spreadsheet, I do a deep valuation of the cards I track and I often account for the overall SGC-PSA population (both separate and combined). I color-code each item -- blue is within 10% high or low of my estimate, green is 10%+ lower than my estimate, and red is 10%+ higher than my estimate. In general, I am pretty good at estimating the final price (hammer + BP) on items I am interested in.
I did this for the REA auction last night. Of the 21 cards I tracked, 7 were within 10% of my estimate, 4 were below my estimate, and 10 (almost 50%) ended above my estimate. To me, that signals one of two things: (i) I am not good at estimating, which may be true, or (ii) the results in REA last night were quite strong. Of particular note, Wagners are on fire, with every Wagner I followed ending at or above (sometimes substantially above) my estimate. Look at the M116 blue Wagner SGC 3, which finished about $4k higher than the blue SGC 3 Cobb -- Wagner outpricing Cobb in the same card and grade is not something you normally see Last edited by Rhotchkiss; 04-24-2023 at 09:23 AM. |
#123
|
||||
|
||||
![]() Quote:
|
#124
|
|||
|
|||
![]()
I have given up predicting REA results, especially with this one:
https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=139372 |
#125
|
|||
|
|||
![]() Quote:
|
#126
|
||||
|
||||
![]()
It seems that people are finally getting what they've been asking for: "buy the card, not the grade." That seems to be what happened here, as it did last month when an SGC 2 Leaf Ted Williams with serious back damage went for over $20K. The people who bought it made multiple social media posts defending their purchase.
__________________
194/240 1933 Goudeys (Ruth #144, #149, Gehrig #92) 131/208 T205s 42/108? Diamond Stars |
#127
|
||||
|
||||
![]() Quote:
Your 10% advice came in handy last night at REA. There were 2-t205 upgrades for my set, one of which was something I never thought I'd upgrade. I thought I was out and then remembered our discussion in Chantilly a year or so ago when you said that if it was within 10%, it was a good idea to just get it since that kind of thing likely never comes up for auction. So I placed one more bid which fell within 10% of my number and won it. You can likely guess the card as I don't have many t205s I can even find to upgrade! On your original comment, I missed on the under but as you've said, the Goldin Koufax was the question. It will be interesting to see how they compare. I have no idea which is stronger or if they're the same but I take the under there. We'll see!! Last edited by trambo; 04-24-2023 at 03:31 PM. |
#128
|
||||
|
||||
![]()
Ryan, I do the same thing, but not as detailed as yours. just to give me an idea on trends. Some are up, some are down, my overall list is off about 10% from its peak but at 279% of what it was pre-pandemic. The twist with mine is that I track lower grades.
FWIW, the lots I tracked in REA finished quite strong. $4560 for a 1947 Bond Bread Robinson in a 1 is a nice price. A 2 sold for less last December. Lower grade 1952 T Mantle cards did well too. A PSA 2 went for $45,600 and an SGC 2 with lousy centering was $33,600.
__________________
Read my blog; it will make all your dreams come true. https://adamstevenwarshaw.substack.com/ Or not... Last edited by Exhibitman; 04-24-2023 at 09:56 PM. |
#129
|
|||
|
|||
![]()
I did notice a couple high end cards that were way off their highs. The PSA 9 Topps Jackie and the 24 Aguilitas Oscar Charleston both went for considerably less than 2021/2022 sales of comparable cards.
|
#130
|
||||
|
||||
![]()
With the new video surfacing I wonder if it will affect the high grade market? Those assets could fall if they aren't believed in.
.
__________________
Leon Luckey www.luckeycards.com |
#131
|
||||
|
||||
![]() Quote:
That video really opened my eyes, I’m now starting to look at pew-war 6’s with a jaundiced eye. |
#132
|
|||
|
|||
![]()
Which video are you talking about?
__________________
I have been a Net 54 member since 2009 and have an Ebay store since 1998 https://www.ebay.com/usr/favorite_things Cards for sale: https://www.flickr.com/photos/185900663@N07/albums I am actively buying and selling vintage sports cards graded and raw. Feedback as a buyer: https://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=297262 I am accepting select private consignments of quality vintage cards (raw or graded) and collecting "want" lists for higher end ($1K+) vintage cards. |
#133
|
||||
|
||||
![]() See thread titled “Card Doctoring Video” Former NFL player and suspected trimmer Evan Mathis confirmed it to the world by posting a 5 minute how to guide on TikTok… he then poked fun at Collectors/PSA owner Nat Turner saying that is how all his high grade cards got their grades… he did this with a paper cutter, wax paper, engineers ruler, file board, loupe, and the blunt end of an xacto knife type pen thing. Trimming on a budget That paragraph is real, I wish I was trolling… Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
#134
|
|||
|
|||
![]()
Ryan, I thought the Collins Hornsby did very well. Strong price for a seldom seen card from a relatively obscure set.
The Wagner candy cards have to be the stars of this round of auctions so far though. Those Memory Lane prices looked very strong to me. |
#135
|
||||
|
||||
![]() Quote:
.
__________________
Leon Luckey www.luckeycards.com |
#136
|
||||
|
||||
![]()
Very strong price. I do think the card is worth that- I think it’s been a very undervalued card for a while and is now getting its due. That said, most of the pricing in memory lane was super strong indicating strength (and a testament to memory lane).
|
#137
|
||||
|
||||
![]()
Another one coming to REA next week
![]() Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
#138
|
|||
|
|||
![]()
If the market does crash and the value of our cards plummets, the true collectors will still have their cards and with that comes the love of our favorite players, their times and even the game itself. Let's not forget the game.
|
#139
|
||||
|
||||
![]() Quote:
![]()
__________________
Read my blog; it will make all your dreams come true. https://adamstevenwarshaw.substack.com/ Or not... |
#140
|
||||
|
||||
![]()
I went back to my initial post and the PSA 9 introduced in that still has not yet gone on sale- It was a preview and the auction starts July 27th!
But since I started the thread, a PSA 9 Koufax did sell in REA (April) for $384k, which was well over the $345k over/under I set and, as you can see from the updated VCP info posted below, is on par with sales in 2022. |
#141
|
|||
|
|||
![]() Quote:
__________________
Trying to wrap up my master mays set, with just a few left: 1968 American Oil left side 1971 Bazooka numbered complete panel |
#142
|
||||
|
||||
![]()
I think we should increase the line. How about $470k
Regarding state of the market/hobby/industry- I woke up this morning, realized Heritage was open, and I placed 39 different initial/placeholder bids totaling just over $2.9mm with buyers premium. I fully expect none of those bids to win. In fact, I expect that by mid week, I will have $0 at rush and 0 high bids. (Keep in mind, it’s easy to get to $2.9mm when you place $300k bids on cards that will likely sell for $500k+). I don’t know if that means that the hobby is healthy economically or there is just a ton of great stuff now for sale, or both. |
#143
|
|||
|
|||
![]() Quote:
And I suspect the auction houses won’t complain!
__________________
Trying to wrap up my master mays set, with just a few left: 1968 American Oil left side 1971 Bazooka numbered complete panel |
#144
|
||||
|
||||
![]() ![]() |
#145
|
|||
|
|||
![]()
Looks like the bidding is up to $170k so far ($204k with the juice), with 26 days left.
https://goldin.co/item/1955-topps-12...sa-mint-9ka38t
__________________
Trying to wrap up my master mays set, with just a few left: 1968 American Oil left side 1971 Bazooka numbered complete panel |
#146
|
||||
|
||||
![]()
BTW- reading my post above, I was sarcastic with the $470k. But the REA sale shows, at the least, that PSA 9 Koufax’s are doing just fine.
And based on the stuff I was watching, and the one card I won, in REA, prewar seems to be just fine as well. Heritage ends this weekend, then LOTG and memory lane (mile high hasn’t even opened). So many amazing offerings and it appears strong prices persist. As a buyer, it’s a little surprising and quite annoying! |
#147
|
|||
|
|||
![]()
__________________
Trying to wrap up my master mays set, with just a few left: 1968 American Oil left side 1971 Bazooka numbered complete panel |
#148
|
|||
|
|||
![]()
So was the Aaron at $480k!
|
#149
|
||||
|
||||
![]() Quote:
|
#150
|
||||
|
||||
![]()
I can’t believe that these numbers are disappointing. What’re we, nuts? I’ll take two vg cards and a condo in Kona instead.
But I digress. Is there still a stink on Goldin? Perhaps there are players who don’t want to bid with him?
__________________
Read my blog; it will make all your dreams come true. https://adamstevenwarshaw.substack.com/ Or not... Last edited by Exhibitman; 09-14-2023 at 06:42 AM. |
![]() |
|
|
![]() |
||||
Thread | Thread Starter | Forum | Replies | Last Post |
FS: 1955 Topps Koufax SGC 3+1955 Topps Jackie Robinson SGC 4 | JayZim13 | 1950 to 1959 Baseball cards- B/S/T | 3 | 06-13-2021 04:34 PM |
FS 1955 Topps Koufax PSA 5 | Kelleys1 | 1950 to 1959 Baseball cards- B/S/T | 4 | 04-20-2020 08:29 PM |
OT/ The Health of the Hobby | frankbmd | Net54baseball Vintage (WWII & Older) Baseball Cards & New Member Introductions | 3 | 01-10-2018 11:59 AM |
REA bids - health of the hobby | ajjohnsonsoxfan | Net54baseball Vintage (WWII & Older) Baseball Cards & New Member Introductions | 85 | 04-20-2016 07:55 AM |
Will HEALTH CARE REFORM hurt hobby? | joeadcock | Net54baseball Vintage (WWII & Older) Baseball Cards & New Member Introductions | 29 | 03-29-2010 09:28 AM |