Health of Asset Class - Over/Under 1955 Topps Koufax PSA 9
 

I am sitting in an airport bored and checking different auction house websites. Goldin has some “top 100” auction coming up and I looked at the preview. One card they have in that auction is a PSA 9, 1955 Topps Sandy Koufax rookie (staring bid $50k). This seems like a true investor card/canary in the coal mine for card values, and so I started to check VCP on prices to guess what it’s “worth”. Here is a link to the auction preview: https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2...NzfoiI7ok8A&e=

Below are pics from VCP showing the sales history of PSA 9 sales (first pic) and the more robust sales history of PSA 8s (pics 2&3). As you can see, this card in an 8 peaked in late 2021/early 2022 and has generally been on a down swing since then, with the lowest comps being the most recent. I believe this tracks most vintage cards. However, the highest PSA comp is the most recent (November 2022) and clearly, 9s sell much more rarely than 8s.

Question: Based on this info (and anything else), what do you think this card sells for when the auction closes? Will it be higher or lower than my over/under price, and why?

I am placing the over/under at $345k and I am taking the under.

The psa 9, 2021 sale was $369k. Looking at the psa 8 comps, most recent sales appear to be about 10% below 2021 sales from August. So I am thinking about 10% below the psa 9, 2021 comp makes sense, putting it just below the $345k strike.

But this card could finish anywhere- I wouldn’t be surprised if it closed at $250k or over $400k, but I do believe there is more downside than upside potential vs the last comp. Factors such as economy, Covid boom and general card popularity, registry set collectors, the auction house, psa cert numbers (the high comp is a newer cert # and the card in question am old one), among other factors, could impact the final result. What do you think?

Favor- there are several on here who bitch, moan and complain on any thread that talks about values or grading. We get it, this type of thread is not for you. And I respect that. But please respect those for whom a thread like this may be interesting and don’t post here unless it’s generally in furtherance of the topic. For example, replies that are not needed: “I don’t care bc I only collect raw”. “Whatever it’s worth, liquidate your 401k”. “I would rather have a new house than this card”. “I don’t care what my cards are worth so I don’t care what this card is worth”. “Great, another what’s it worth thread”.

Koufax value
 

Hi Ryan- I’ll take the over, and just barely. It’s a brand spanking new PSA 9 and I think someone will go high to claim him. Just a hunch…and by the way, you probably warded off half the commenters by asking that people stay on topic:) An unusual percentage of folks seem to have problems with that, even when the topic is crystal clear. Trent King

Nice card.

I'll take the under on the 9, guessing 295K-325K range, although it only takes a couple of registry guys or a "recommendation" to a "client" that this is a solid investment to drive the price north.

Maybe it's my eyes or an optical illusion but doesn't the bottom edge look wavy?

Your last paragraph got a chuckle too.

Well done with taking it OT on the first reply.:confused:

As to to the main topic Ryan raised, while I think the market for a great deal of material has pulled back, I feel a card like this appeals to a different caliber of hobbyist and will see a record price. Safe travels.

It’ll go up, unless it goes down
 

Predictions on pieces like this are always a fool’s errand, although as fortune’s fool, perhaps I’ll proffer a few lame and mostly self-evident observations.

Not many of us have the deep pockets to swim in these deep waters. Even if we do have pockets so deep, we might prefer to avoid sinking it all into a single card, and instead prefer to spread our wealth around.

As a result, I suspect that the final price will largely be governed by 2-4 potential buyers. Although it’s possible that others might be in the mix, including someone for whom this might represent their only foray into the hobby, my inclination is to guess that these potential buyers are either major Koufax fanboyz/collectors or else serious collectors of this set. Just how crazy those buyers are willing to get will largely be a question of how they’re feeling in the last couple of days before and especially the day of the auction closing.

Do their animal spirits come alive? Do they throw caution to the wind and let it rip? How drunk do they get? And in the days/weeks before the auction, what else is swirling in their lives that emotionally pushes them one way or the other? How long have they been saving up their pennies for this specific card in this specific grade? Do they get emotionally attached to the idea that they have to win this one, no matter what? Do they start mentally preparing a spot on the wall where this one will go, such that they already view it as theirs, and decide to not back down even in the face of someone equally determined to win it? As you can tell, I’m projecting a bit now.

One of the other elements here is how often these babies come to market in this high grade. It looks like there’s been a handful over the last couple of years, which probably helps to satiate some of the pent up demand out there. For high grade pieces that haven’t come to market during the pandemic, often the pent up demand is pretty overpowering, with those pieces going absofreakinglutely nuts.

But getting back to those potential buyers, since so many of these questions are so uniquely personal, are dependent on future events, and for people that are probably largely unknown to most of us, it’s impossible to really even begin to attempt to predict with any degree of precision.

Having said all of that, my general sense is that when high graded, low pop pieces for inner circle hall of famers, particularly for their early years come to market, the market continues to surprise me. Even shock me to a great extent.

Accordingly, I tend to be inclined to guess high. I wouldn’t be surprised if this one approaches or even exceeds $400k (with the juice, natch). But like some of the earlier comments, my sense is that the range here is wide, anywhere from $250-500, depending on just how many players decide to get into it, and just how nuts they’re willing to go to make sure that they land this piece.

Interesting topic that I will take a swing at. When I checked out the card the first thing I noticed is that the card didn’t have the usual sharpness that I often note with the Koufax rookie. Sandy’s usual dark, tan complexion looked a little light or faded. Otherwise the card is gorgeous with immaculate centering and corners but it didn’t “speak to me”. So if the standard is in the range of all time highs I will take the under. Put me in the 325k camp
Just my two cents…..

under -barely reaches 300, then new buyer re-sells in 6 months for a nice profit.
*forgot ya'll that didnt get the notice, the re-boom is coming back in 6 months.
LOL

Easily over. A newly graded 9 will bring in the high rollers because it will be perceived as the nicest 9 on the planet. The economy does not affect buyers that can afford a card like this.

Mainly because of who the AH is I will say WAY over the highest bid will be.

Somebody will buy it.

I don’t think it’s newly graded. While I am no PSA expert, I am pretty sure it’s a very old cert#; I just think it’s been reholdered. In my experience, PSA certs that start with 0, 3, and 9, are old and often overgraded compared to others.

Over, and solely over due to who the auction house is.

Has nothing to do with the strength of the pre-war sector.....apples and oranges.

I think we've discussed in a few of the trimming threads (and others where people ask), that PSA certs did not go in numerical order, until they started picking up around 20 years ago and then filling in all the certs that were never issued. So while some 30,xxx,xxx certs (and 50M, 90M) were graded 20+ years ago, the vast majority of 30M certs were graded 5-6 years ago, and the 50M that weren't ancient were graded during the COVID boom. PSA hasn't gotten to 90M yet, so all those are ancient. This one starting with 03 is definitely ancient and reholdered.

It is an old cert number. Not sure it gets a 9 today.. Registration is off on front by his name and several small fisheyes on the same plane. Also the back seems to have a diamond print (card not diamond cut) if you look close at bottom line.

That said I vote $200-$250k for some reason...

The interest in a $350K card is about as relevant to the overall health of the hobby as the price of a custom mansion on the beach is to prices for tract homes 100 miles inland. The decision-making processes of a tiny group of collectors who are wealthy enough to contemplate buying a $350,000 card do not have anything to do with 99.99% of collectors. These super-expensive card buyers are basically non-responsive to economic tides due to their extreme wealth.

A better gauge for hobby health is to look at the passed lot percentages in the run of the mill auctions. They are still extraordinarily low by historical standards. Last week's Sterling Auction had 501 lots with ten passed lots. REA's March 19 auction had one passed lot. That indicates a very active buying public is still engaged heavily with the hobby and buying basically whatever is out there. Prices may be stagnant or falling on some classes of items but interest is still sky-high.

Unda

It will sell way over $350,000 setting a new record high. This seems to be a new normal commonplace in Major Auction Houses on High-Grade Cards Specifically PSA 9 HOF Rookies.

card
 

Ova

I'm going over. Him and Mays are the last two baseball gods from that era.

Goldin will be blasting it all over social media I bet.

What a card!

Interesting thought on the over under. Looking at the PSA pop report, the card has a total pop of 25 in a 9. That makes it one of the most common 9s in the set. There are also 3-PSA 10s. To me, it's rare but not so rare and not a top pop so the set registry chasers may not chase as hard as they would if it there were no PSA 10s.

As for the slab, it's an old cert # and at some point after it sold for $204k at Heritage in 2017, it was reholdered.

I'd likely take the under here as I'd bet with a pop of 25 in a 9, there will be other opportunities to buy the card. I'm also biased because it's not an era I collect. I don't think it makes a ton of sense to plunk down that kind of money on a card from that era that is easier to find in higher grades. Plus, it would appear you can get an 8 for less than 10% of recent 9 sales.

Should be fun to watch! Thanks for the question, too!!

I think it will sell for more than the last one, but not with much confidence.
The sales history looks like that card in that grade only comes up about once maybe twice a year, with occasional years with none.

I think the number of people who can buy one is small, but also somewhat insulated from a changing economy. Right now is probably a good time to buy, as the actual state of the economy is less important than the uncertainty of what's going to happen.

I would disagree that this tier of the hobby doesn't affect others. Demand and prices have been driven by publicity and other pricing as long as I've been collecting. If it was really separated purely based on condition and price we would see easily spotted steps in pricing, here the 9s and maybe 10s included. We do see a huge drop off to 8s, but it's more gradual after that. If it was purely condition based, it might look like
10 Who knows
9 300K+
8 30K ish.
567.... whatever they go for now, but all priced right around the 6 price.
345 maybe half that or even less,
below a 3? a very cheap card like it was in maybe the late 80's. saleable, but with stagnant prices, since the only buyers would be beginners, people with little money, or as a temporary space filler in a collection.

Adam - I guess I'm not as familiar with the thinking behind why passed lot percentages are a meaningful metric as a gauge for the health of the hobby. Could I trouble you to unpack that a bit more about why you view it as meaningful?

Unless I'm mistaken, a passed lot is merely a lot that didn't get any bids. I suppose part of the fun there is where the auction house puts the initial bid, and whether that's an attractive price point. But even if just one person bids, then the item wouldn't fail, right? I suppose it's also possible that if the item has a reserve that isn't met, then that might count as a passed lot.

Part of me also wonders whether a big part of the calculus here is the question of whether the auction house is deliberately turning away relatively worthless pieces (maybe a 1988 Donruss common in BVG 6 as an example) such that they never get to auction, and therefore never have a chance to fail because no one will bid the minimum $10 on them.

No idea on price, but that's an insane card :eek:

Sure. I've been watching passed lot percentages in 'collector' level card auctions since the Great Recession. At the worst, some auctions had 30% of lots not open. I noticed during the pandemic boom that virtually everything sold. I think in 2022 I had one passed item among hundreds of card lots I consigned to cash in on the surge in prices. To me, the fact that nearly everything still is selling is evidence of broad interest in the hobby. There are a ton more middle-class collectors spending relatively modest monthly budgets than there are wealthy collectors pursuing six-figure cards. The latter make the headlines, but the former are the bread and butter of the business. My take-away from passed lot figures is that despite the many auctions out there, collectors are not saturated and not fatigued. Prices may fluctuate, but interest is still high.

Thanks for sharing. I'm shocked that it used to be as high as 30%. What a time to be alive!

Under. By 10-20%.

I'll go $350.-360.k, a tad over. We are in a new world now, and the high rollers want their cards.

Off-topic, but look at your cards carefully when they come in the mail. I have just had 3 cards where they didn't pick up flaws. SGC 8 - was a divot on the front. SGC 7 - was an obvious surface abrasion. And a PSA 7 with rubber band mark indents on edge. Oh, my. How can these get thru PSA/SGC with high grades ?

under by 20%...imo.

I actually think your number makes sense -- but I'll go very slightly over maybe $350,000.

I note that there are about 25 PSA 9s and 3 PSA 10s -- both are high for this set. And it means that "better" ones are out there. Also, Koufax is one of the oldest living HOFers (Mays is now the oldest) ... I'm not sure how this factors into it but it certainly could. His career ended in 1966 -- a long long time ago. Mays' ended in 1973 (after Koufax was elected to the HOF)....Pretty sure there is no one alive who was elected before Koufax....

Without violating the OPs last paragraph I don't think that a card this high end can provide fair measure of the "health of the hobby" (whatever that means)... The hobby is not ultimately who "can say the highest number" (to quote Logan Roy out of context) on the highest end of a high end card....

REA just announced they have one in their spring auction that starts on Thursday

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...4165fb7afe.jpg


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seeing 2 of these coming to market at the same time is likely bad for both sellers. I was taking the under before and I'd likely bet a little more now. Good thing I don't really bet....haha!!

Troy, I really like your logic on this one. Hope all is well!

Two PSA 9 does not bode well for either seller. Second “bet”- which does better, REA (first up) or Goldin? Both are old cert #s

Goldin isn't doing the seller any favors with their washed out looking scans (their entire catalog has these BTW). The card itself looks slightly diamond cut and the borders look narrow for this card. I think it has almost certainly been trimmed. But I also think the potential buyers are unlikely to notice that. But they might notice that it has an old serial number (the market is getting wiser to the moving of the goal posts). With a nicer looking 9 hitting REA at the same time, I think this one goes under. Possibly way under if the buyers are informed. This is precisely the type of card I would never buy even if my funds were endless, despite the card itself being one of my all time favorite cards.

As a quick note, I think a few have referenced above something about when the 3xxx serial numbers were graded. There were no 3xxx serials handed out between the high 2xxx and 4xxx serials. PSA skipped over the 3xxx's and went straight to the 4xxx's. I believe all of the 3xxx are from the very early days at PSA.

I think Goldin does that washed out scans to hide imperfections, especially on 55 Topps. Bad scan, you can't see the wear on the card.

"Buy the card, not the holder". I think I might be in the minority now.

Guessin that it doesn't hit $250K.................

Adam, i disagree with this statement. Indeed, I think its very relevant and think this sale could serve as a canary in the coalmine for the broader asset class/industry.

Whoever is buying this card is either doing so purely as investment, is a super wealthy collector who we must assume has the financial cognizance to know if they are making a poor financial decision, or some degree of both. In other words, the bidders on a high-grade, high-profile, expensive card like this is, and know they are, making a financial decision when they decide to place a bid they hope wins the auction. This is not a T206 Wagner, BN Ruth, Just So Young or something super rare -- this is a full commodity card. I think the hammer price on high-end commodity cards are very relevant to values across the asset class/industry.

I am with Adam on this one. There is probably 1/2 of 1 percent of collectors on this forum, most likely less, that can afford a card like that. I am much more interested in T206 Red Cobbs and Goudey Ruth 144s, in medium conditions, as far as the health of the pre war market.

Looking at the REA scans, that card if resubmitted today would probably grade an 8 at best.

I haven't taken selling serious in a very long time. When are the closing dates? I know years ago if the closing dates are close the one that finished first always sold for more on similar items.

I think that's long been the trend.

I've noticed over the last couple of years that it's flipped, probably mostly due to FOMO and a lot of emotional bidding. All the people who missed out on the first one swear a blood oath that they're going to absatively get the next one. So they go even more nuts than on the first one, and bid it up even higher.

Likely just a sign of how frothy the market has been over the last couple of years.

See, great minds think alike...

I just don't buy the 'trickle down' view of card prices.

Leon, I'm with you and Adam as well, sorry Ryan. I do not disagree with what Ryan was saying, but I believe he's confusing the health of the "investment" market for cards, with the health of the actual "hobby" for cards. And those are realistically two entirely different things IMO.

As you noted, only a very extremely small percentage of members on Net54, let alone in the hobby community itself, would ever be able to afford to be paying that kind of money for any card/collection. I know I can't afford that kind of money, and am perfectly happy with the lower grade '55 Topps Koufax card(s) I have had for years. A Collector is happy to have a nice version of a card they want, and isn't necessarily worried about it being this or that grade. Would it be nice to have a NM 7 version of a card as opposed to say a VG-EX 4 version, well of course, but a Collector would likely be most happy just to have a nice version of that card, period. An Investor, on the other hand, isn't necessarily worried about having this or that particular card, just one that they think they can make a lot of money off of buying, holding, and then later reselling it for a profit.

The fact that card shows are making a comeback after the pandemic, attendance is up and great, the hobby is all over the internet and making a splash, seems to show the hobby is alive and doing well. As long as baseball is still around and followed and watched by so many people, I think the hobby itself will be fine, and there will always be Collectors keeping it alive and healthy.

Now as for the Investors, that may be a different story. If these high-priced card prices start tanking, and the Investors start getting out, I think that would actually be even better for the Collectors in the hobby as all of these much desired cards will start to become more affordable and available to the everyday, true Collectors. As soon as you start trying to tie and equate hobby prices to hobby health, you aren't really talking about a hobby anymore, you're talking about an investment industry choice.

And to stay on topic for the OP's question, I think under.

Yet the rising tide lifts all boats.



Honestly...

Agree w/you on this, Ryan but also believe there can be more than one market in this hobby. I'd imagine higher end, rarer stuff will always have the super wealthy chasing just like people chasing low to mid grade tobacco cards. I won't get into my opinions of that as it wasn't your original question.

Doing well over here! Currently on a 60 day vacation between things. Giving me a chance to thin the herd of doubles! Very much needed to do it!! Hope you're well, too!!

Yes, but just because the tide goes out, it doesn't mean the boat has sunk either.

Bob, all fair points and I edited the title of the thread to call it an asset class vs hobby. You and I seem to keep crossing streams on content of titles vs the post, but since I created both, I will admit I created the confusion.

My question relates to cards as investments/an asset class. And I believe this question is relevant to many on this board, even those who consider themselves collectors - these things have value, plain and simple, and people care about the value of things they own that have value.

So, to be clear, it’s my bad- I am looking at this card/sale as a marker for the health of cards as an asset class and asking whether people think it will go over/under an price point I established, and why.

Ryan,

It is not your bad, and I agree with you wholeheartedly that the lines are absolutely blurred because most old timers that started out as just collectors have seen the value of their cards/collections skyrocket in recent years. Especially when you start talking about vintage and pre-war. It is literally impossible in most cases to separate Collectors from Investors anymore. The value that people's cards/collections may now have makes it impossible for them to ignore that along with their beloved hobby collection, they may also be sitting on a big profit as well. And as everyone starts getting older, you can't help but start thinking about retirement and estate issues and planning for spouses/family.

Now as for the health of the investment side/aspects of the hobby, that is a tough question as well. Unlike traditional investments (stocks, bonds, etc.), cards themselves don't have anything that really changes, unlike with stocks and bonds where companies can have good years and bad years, or interest rates rising and falling. To me, cards are more like one of those investment options that people are now starting to look at as potential alternatives to the traditional types of investments when the values of those traditional investments look to be going down. When the stock market is tanking and the interest rates are down, people may see prices rising in cards as an alternative investment choice they think can possibly do better over a short/long term than those more traditional investments. This recent pandemic surge though was a somewhat unique situation that saw both the traditional stock markets AND card prices rising. Likely due a lot to the excess cash being poured into our economy in anticipation of concern for the pandemic's effect on our overall economic health. Now that that all seems to have pretty much passed and ended, I wouldn't be surprised to still see cards as an investment option/choice, but maybe now working more so as an alternative to the traditional investments. So right now, with talks/fears of a major recession still in the picture, people that have moved some of their investment assets into these high-end, high-grade cards, may just keep them there for now. But with all the crap that has been going on with the economy and world of late, including all the unrelated external issues, the fact that the stock market hasn't completely imploded (in fact I thought I read where the market just ended the best quarter we've had since back in 2020), many investors may be thinking we are at, or close, to the bottom, and the stock market will begin rising going forward. In that case, I can see people getting out of cards and back into the more traditional investments at some point in maybe the not so distant future. In that case, as that may eventually start to happen, I think you'll see the Collectors keeping the lower end/condition cards in pretty similar value to where they are now. But the higher-end, higher priced investment grade/type cards, I can see those cooling off some as Investors may move more of their money back into the more traditional investment markets. Exactly when that may start to happen, well if I knew and could accurately predict that, I'd have been retired years ago. LOL

"Haters" gonna hate! A rising tide lifts all boats, remember? ;)

The interest and ability to purchase a PSA 9 Koufax RC draws from a very small crowd. First, you need $300.k discretionary funds. Second, you must want to buy that particular card instead of some other $300.k card such as a Ruth or Gehrig or Cobb, etc.

Statistically, not a lot of correlation with the PSA 9 Koufax and the masses that are searching shows and ebay for raw current modern, or even graded post-war HOFers.

Blowout forum has a thread kinda like - state of the hobby based on current shows. They report the hobby is alive, well and thriving based on what they see at shows - attendance, deals being made.

It sure wouldn't hurt the overall market if a PSA 9 Koufax RC goes for record price. On the flip side, if the Koufax tanks, how much effect will there be on the crowd buying modern Luka/Giannis/Mike Trout type stuff? To get a better fix on the market, better to track cards more attainable and desired by the masses.

However, this Koufax card sale must be considered rather important for the folks in that similar market.

But sure is fun and interesting to track what the high rollers are after and at what prices.