Health of Asset Class - Over/Under 1955 Topps Koufax PSA 9

[Rhotchkiss]

For the past 6-7 years, I have kept a running spreadsheet tracking items that I am interested for sale in current auctions. For each card I am interested in, I track the current bid, the cost with BP, and the cost of the next bid with BP; I also have a side sheet that adds taxes and other expenses, so I can estimate the all-in cost to me. As part of this spreadsheet, I do a deep valuation of the cards I track and I often account for the overall SGC-PSA population (both separate and combined). I color-code each item -- blue is within 10% high or low of my estimate, green is 10%+ lower than my estimate, and red is 10%+ higher than my estimate. In general, I am pretty good at estimating the final price (hammer + BP) on items I am interested in.

I did this for the REA auction last night. Of the 21 cards I tracked, 7 were within 10% of my estimate, 4 were below my estimate, and 10 (almost 50%) ended above my estimate. To me, that signals one of two things: (i) I am not good at estimating, which may be true, or (ii) the results in REA last night were quite strong.

Of particular note, Wagners are on fire, with every Wagner I followed ending at or above (sometimes substantially above) my estimate. Look at the M116 blue Wagner SGC 3, which finished about $4k higher than the blue SGC 3 Cobb -- Wagner outpricing Cobb in the same card and grade is not something you normally see

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

For the past 6-7 years, I have kept a running spreadsheet tracking items that I am interested for sale in current auctions. For each card I am interested in, I track the current bid, the cost with BP, and the cost of the next bid with BP; I also have a side sheet that adds taxes and other expenses, so I can estimate the all-in cost to me. As part of this spreadsheet, I do a deep valuation of the cards I track and I often account for the overall SGC-PSA population (both separate and combined). I color-code each item -- blue is within 10% high or low of my estimate, green is 10%+ lower than my estimate, and red is 10%+ higher than my estimate. In general, I am pretty good at estimating the final price (hammer + BP) on items I am interested in.

I did this for the REA auction last night. Of the 21 cards I tracked, 7 were within 10% of my estimate, 4 were below my estimate, and 10 (almost 50%) ended above my estimate. To me, that signals one of two things: (i) I am not good at estimating, which may be true, or (ii) the results in REA last night were quite strong.

Of particular note, Wagners are on fire, with every Wagner I followed ending at or above (sometimes substantially above) my estimate. Look at the M116 blue Wagner SGC 3, which finished about $4k higher than the blue SGC 3 Cobb -- Wagner outpricing Cobb in the same card and grade is not something you normally see

I'm going to go with that the results in REA were really strong last night, and that your estimates were accurate. I really wanted that Wagner PC976 Sepia postcard, but the price was just too high.

[parkplace33]

I have given up predicting REA results, especially with this one:

https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=139372

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by parkplace33

I have given up predicting REA results, especially with this one:

https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=139372

Was it Paying crazy for just the front of the card or Maybe someone on the DL who can re-back the card and get it through, with a 6 or who better. Who knows trust nothing you hear and only half of what you see.

[jsfriedm]

It seems that people are finally getting what they've been asking for: "buy the card, not the grade." That seems to be what happened here, as it did last month when an SGC 2 Leaf Ted Williams with serious back damage went for over $20K. The people who bought it made multiple social media posts defending their purchase.

[trambo]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

For the past 6-7 years, I have kept a running spreadsheet tracking items that I am interested for sale in current auctions. For each card I am interested in, I track the current bid, the cost with BP, and the cost of the next bid with BP; I also have a side sheet that adds taxes and other expenses, so I can estimate the all-in cost to me. As part of this spreadsheet, I do a deep valuation of the cards I track and I often account for the overall SGC-PSA population (both separate and combined). I color-code each item -- blue is within 10% high or low of my estimate, green is 10%+ lower than my estimate, and red is 10%+ higher than my estimate. In general, I am pretty good at estimating the final price (hammer + BP) on items I am interested in.

I did this for the REA auction last night. Of the 21 cards I tracked, 7 were within 10% of my estimate, 4 were below my estimate, and 10 (almost 50%) ended above my estimate. To me, that signals one of two things: (i) I am not good at estimating, which may be true, or (ii) the results in REA last night were quite strong.

Of particular note, Wagners are on fire, with every Wagner I followed ending at or above (sometimes substantially above) my estimate. Look at the M116 blue Wagner SGC 3, which finished about $4k higher than the blue SGC 3 Cobb -- Wagner outpricing Cobb in the same card and grade is not something you normally see

Your 10% advice came in handy last night at REA. There were 2-t205 upgrades for my set, one of which was something I never thought I'd upgrade. I thought I was out and then remembered our discussion in Chantilly a year or so ago when you said that if it was within 10%, it was a good idea to just get it since that kind of thing likely never comes up for auction. So I placed one more bid which fell within 10% of my number and won it. You can likely guess the card as I don't have many t205s I can even find to upgrade!

On your original comment, I missed on the under but as you've said, the Goldin Koufax was the question. It will be interesting to see how they compare. I have no idea which is stronger or if they're the same but I take the under there. We'll see!!

[Exhibitman]

Ryan, I do the same thing, but not as detailed as yours. just to give me an idea on trends. Some are up, some are down, my overall list is off about 10% from its peak but at 279% of what it was pre-pandemic. The twist with mine is that I track lower grades.

FWIW, the lots I tracked in REA finished quite strong. $4560 for a 1947 Bond Bread Robinson in a 1 is a nice price. A 2 sold for less last December. Lower grade 1952 T Mantle cards did well too. A PSA 2 went for $45,600 and an SGC 2 with lousy centering was $33,600.

[JimC]

I did notice a couple high end cards that were way off their highs. The PSA 9 Topps Jackie and the 24 Aguilitas Oscar Charleston both went for considerably less than 2021/2022 sales of comparable cards.

[Leon]

With the new video surfacing I wonder if it will affect the high grade market? Those assets could fall if they aren't believed in.
.

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Leon

With the new video surfacing I wonder if it will affect the high grade market? Those assets could fall if they aren't believed in.
.

My thoughts too Leon,
That video really opened my eyes, I’m now starting to look at pew-war 6’s with a jaundiced eye.

[hcv123]

Originally Posted by Leon

With the new video surfacing I wonder if it will affect the high grade market? Those assets could fall if they aren't believed in.
.

Which video are you talking about?

[theshowandme]

Originally Posted by hcv123

Which video are you talking about?

See thread titled “Card Doctoring Video”

Former NFL player and suspected trimmer Evan Mathis confirmed it to the world by posting a 5 minute how to guide on TikTok… he then poked fun at Collectors/PSA owner Nat Turner saying that is how all his high grade cards got their grades… he did this with a paper cutter, wax paper, engineers ruler, file board, loupe, and the blunt end of an xacto knife type pen thing. Trimming on a budget

That paragraph is real, I wish I was trolling…


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