So you have $1.3 million burning a hole in your pocket

[packs]

Originally Posted by mechanicalman

I never understand the argument that collectors of these vintage sets will dry up in the future. The set in question is already 114 years old. Why will it suddenly lack interest when it’s 134 years old?

That said, I’m not a set builder, and I don’t buy non-HoFers, so Doyle never interested me. I would have voted real estate, but if I’m being honest, I divested some big cards last year to buy cars and a boat. Far worse investments than cards or real estate. 😂 But the new acquisitions are a ton of fun and were worth parting with a few cards sitting in a bank vault.

I didn't say that people would lose interest in T206s or even the Doyle variation, only that I don't see anyone paying anywhere close to 1.3 million dollars for it 20 or 30 years from now.

I believe that the person who paid 1.3 million dollars for it, and the under bidder on it, are likely two old-time collectors who are completionists and had to have it at any cost.

I'm just not sure that same fervor for a Doyle error will exist for all of time.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by packs

I didn't say that people would lose interest in T206s or even the Doyle variation, only that I don't see anyone paying anywhere close to 1.3 million dollars for it 20 or 30 years from now.

I believe that the person who paid 1.3 million dollars for it, and the under bidder on it, are likely two old-time collectors who are completionists and had to have it at any cost.

I'm just not sure that same fervor for a Doyle error will exist for all of time.

I think the usual argument for the possibility of long-term decline in interest in the hobby usually is based on a couple of theories/data points:

1) Baseball dies as a sport. Obviously Star Trek famously predicted this future. And certainly from time to time there are declarations about the imminent demise of the sport. And although it has declined in popularity over the last 75 years relative to other sports, there is still a fairly large fan base, and the sport doesn’t seem to be dying all that quickly.

2) It’s happened in other collectibles markets. Certainly anyone who watches antiques roadshow will tell you that there are plenty of pieces that were popular 50 years ago and the kids today aren’t at all interested. A little closer to home, the pessimists point to the stamp collecting world and suggest that it really fell off a cliff. I’m not saying this is likely, but it seems like a theoretical possibility.

Of course, plenty of other people take the opposite side and argue that the hobby will go in the direction of the fine art world, and we should all plan to add a few zeroes to the price of everything. I’m a bit skeptical of this outcome, but if you’re a serious bull, then this is your pitch.

Bottom line when it comes to obscure rarities like the Doyle is that it doesn’t have quite the same notoriety as a Wagner or 311 Mantle. But it’s also a lot more rare! So the price will almost always be dependent on how much a short list of people with a whole lot of cash are willing to pay, and it really only takes 2 people to drive up the price in an auction setting.

Another element that comes into play is whether it continues to be accepted as a variation that is required to have a complete set. I’m no T206 expert, but there may be other variations out there that aren’t currently recognized or required to have a complete set. If this variation were to fall out of favor and no longer be recognized, including being eliminated from spots like the PSA set registry, then the price probably falls, and not just a little.

[packs]

I'm under 40, I love baseball cards, am a lifelong collector and even if I won the billion dollar mega millions this month, I would have zero interest in paying anything for this card.

Only 6% of people on the board said they would invest in this card. I think that's a fairly accurate barometer re: not a whole lot of people looking to buy it at this price. And that's today. I'm projecting 30 years down the road and I'd be surprised if I were wrong.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by raulus

I think the usual argument for the possibility of long-term decline in interest in the hobby usually is based on a couple of theories/data points:

1) Baseball dies as a sport. Obviously Star Trek famously predicted this future. And certainly from time to time there are declarations about the imminent demise of the sport. And although it has declined in popularity over the last 75 years relative to other sports, there is still a fairly large fan base, and the sport doesn’t seem to be dying all that quickly.

2) It’s happened in other collectibles markets. Certainly anyone who watches antiques roadshow will tell you that there are plenty of pieces that were popular 50 years ago and the kids today aren’t at all interested. A little closer to home, the pessimists point to the stamp collecting world and suggest that it really fell off a cliff. I’m not saying this is likely, but it seems like a theoretical possibility.

Of course, plenty of other people take the opposite side and argue that the hobby will go in the direction of the fine art world, and we should all plan to add a few zeroes to the price of everything. I’m a bit skeptical of this outcome, but if you’re a serious bull, then this is your pitch.

Bottom line when it comes to obscure rarities like the Doyle is that it doesn’t have quite the same notoriety as a Wagner or 311 Mantle. But it’s also a lot more rare! So the price will almost always be dependent on how much a short list of people with a whole lot of cash are willing to pay, and it really only takes 2 people to drive up the price in an auction setting.

Another element that comes into play is whether it continues to be accepted as a variation that is required to have a complete set. I’m no T206 expert, but there may be other variations out there that aren’t currently recognized or required to have a complete set. If this variation were to fall out of favor and no longer be recognized, including being eliminated from spots like the PSA set registry, then the price probably falls, and not just a little.

regarding t206...I think as time goes by fewer and fewer "collectors" will be interested in attempting to complete the set...and will more likely just collect the hof'ers. I would not feel confident investing in a card like the doyle over time because to me it is a card for the wealthy completionist...and fewer future "Collectors" will be completionists imo.

[oldjudge]

Originally Posted by mechanicalman

I never understand the argument that collectors of these vintage sets will dry up in the future. The set in question is already 114 years old. Why will it suddenly lack interest when it’s 134 years old?

That said, I’m not a set builder, and I don’t buy non-HoFers, so Doyle never interested me. I would have voted real estate, but if I’m being honest, I divested some big cards last year to buy cars and a boat. Far worse investments than cards or real estate. 😂 But the new acquisitions are a ton of fun and were worth parting with a few cards sitting in a bank vault.

Hi Sam! I think you made some great choices. Be well my friend.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by mechanicalman

I never understand the argument that collectors of these vintage sets will dry up in the future. The set in question is already 114 years old. Why will it suddenly lack interest when it’s 134 years old?

That said, I’m not a set builder, and I don’t buy non-HoFers, so Doyle never interested me. I would have voted real estate, but if I’m being honest, I divested some big cards last year to buy cars and a boat. Far worse investments than cards or real estate. �� But the new acquisitions are a ton of fun and were worth parting with a few cards sitting in a bank vault.

When I sold my collection in 2015 almost half of my take home on it was put into buying a rental house. IT has trippled in price since I bought it. Yeah, I sold too soon but that wasn't the question. The answer for me is/was real estate.

That said, now, I have been looking at C8 Z06 convertibles. That would be more fun than a PSA 7 Young - Boston (not that it would necessarily buy one but it would pay for most of it, at least).
.

[puckpaul]

The more i think about it, the Ruth bat is the clear winner here. I shied away at first because I collect memorabilia extensively but mostly jerseys, and hockey jerseys at that. I had collected hockey sticks too, but those were hard to display and store, so I kept that at a minimum. I viewed a bat similarly, and would prefer a Ruth jersey, but the bat’s provenance seems solid and it is a piece of history. I would choose that. The Doyle is still very tempting, but since he wasnt a great player and it is an error card, I can see the argument against it. As a collector, the last thing I would choose is RE, based on the premise that the money is “burning a hole” or is superflous. If you have that much money, another $1.3mm in RE doesn’t do much of anything.

[Schwertfeger1007]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

I'm not sure what kind of oceanfront property you can buy for $1.3 million--nothing in SoCal. That said, I wouldn't pay $1.3 million for a non-HOFer, no matter how scarce the card was. That just demonstrates the idiocy of set collecting. If there was an equally rare Doyle in a less popular set it would sell for maybe a thousand.

Kind of like spending insane money for relatively unknown California Leaguers while putting together an even tougher set ???

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Leon

When I sold my collection in 2015 almost half of my take home on it was put into buying a rental house. IT has trippled in price since I bought it. Yeah, I sold too soon but that wasn't the question. The answer for me is/was real estate.

That said, now, I have been looking at C8 Z06 convertibles. That would be more fun than a PSA 7 Young - Boston (not that it would necessarily buy one but it would pay for most of it, at least).
.

Leon, if you choose to sell that Young, I am sure you can figure out how to PM me…

[oldjudge]

[QUOTE=Schwertfeger1007;2365064]Kind of like spending insane money for relatively unknown California Leaguers while putting together an even tougher set ???


Agree 100%

[z28jd]

It feels like people have different opinions of what "burning a hole in your pocket" means. I took it as you have to be set in life to have $1.3M just burning a hole, so investing wouldn't come into the thought process.

If I just had $1.3M for nothing in particular, I'd just start giving it to relatives, but that wasn't an option.

I have zero interest in owning real estate, especially since I'd already own something in this scenario of being set in life.

I have a Babe Ruth bat that was used in the original Babe Ruth movie. I also don't really collect memorabilia.

I collected T206 cards for years, so this was an easy choice for me. I picked the Doyle card. If in theory I'm willing to give away the hole-burning money, then I wouldn't care if it lost value over the years.

[Rad_Hazard]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

Real estate is the easy choice for me

Agreed! I would be able to finally buy a single family home where I live with 1.3m.

[mechanicalman]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

Hi Sam! I think you made some great choices. Be well my friend.

Ha. Thanks, Jay. Will always be grateful for our dealings. Hope you’re well!

[mechanicalman]

Side note: I’d love to see a Venn diagram of Wagner owners and Doyle error owners. I would wager there are almost no Doyle owners who don’t own a Wagner.

[dnilgis]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

probably oceanfront property

although nice, if you really were to invest in any land, it should be ag land, there is a large sale in my neighborhood next week, 1.3m should be able to get 250ish acres of productive ag land, that is where you should invest.

https://www.schraderauction.com/auctions/8502

link to auction, should be a fun one.

[Bigdaddy]

I look at the question a couple of different ways:

• First, if I had $1.3M 'burning a hole' that I wanted to invest, then I'd choose the one that I thought would bring the best returns, looking at each solely as investment vehicles. I'm sure we can all agree on which one that is . Me personally, I'd pick the Ruth bat. Too much cost of ownership of the RE and I think the Doyle has a smaller audience.
• Or second, If I had $1.3M to 'blow' without regard to ROI, I'd pick the one that would give me the most joy. For me, that's not a piece of cardboard or wood, but a nice spot on a lake or river where I can spend some time reeling in fish I have not yet caught.

[rats60]

I don't like polls like this which have no correct answer. The correct answer is none of the above. I guess the OPs point is, who is spending 1.3 million dollars on an error card on a nobody? If I am spending 7 figures on a card, it would have to be a t206 Wagner or a Baltimore News Ruth. I am not spending 7 figures on a bat, even Ruth. I am not spending 7 figures on real estate.

The best use of this money, in my opinion, would be to diversify. Buy a nice Ruth, Cobb and/or Wagner card(s), put some into a reasonably priced vacation home and put some into savings.

[pawpawdiv9]

I go mud wrestling with the wcw girls and have a blast doing so