So you have $1.3 million burning a hole in your pocket

[oldjudge]

I'm not sure what kind of oceanfront property you can buy for $1.3 million--nothing in SoCal. That said, I wouldn't pay $1.3 million for a non-HOFer, no matter how scarce the card was. That just demonstrates the idiocy of set collecting. If there was an equally rare Doyle in a less popular set it would sell for maybe a thousand.

[puckpaul]

I actually think the Doyle is a better buy, given its rarity and the amount of well-healed buyers of T206s. Prime real eatate has gone even more nuts than vintage cards. I think the Doyle has a lot of room to appreciate (i did NOT buy this one or own one).

That said, for all of the three items, the only one for which the price isnt a lot of money is real estate. You cant buy high end real estate for $1.3mm. If yiu are one of the 50-80 people who own a wagner and want to complete the T206 set, there aer a lot fewer Doyle’s. But Doyle doesnt attract nearly as many people who want to just own an iconic card. Interesting poll.

[packs]

Who do you guys think is paying for Doyle? Personally, my guess is a longtime (see old) T206 collector, and maybe only a small handful of other people like him as competition.

What about 20 years from now when these collectors are replaced? Does the Doyle still command attention to the tune of over a million dollars? I would guess no.

[G1911]

Index fund and retire. If I had unlimited money I still could not spend a million dollars on a cardboard picture of a dude, it's too much of a waste. I'd give the $1.3 to a friend so they could retire also, give it to a cause I like, you could do so much good rather than have a single baseball card.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by G1911

Index fund and retire. If I had unlimited money I still could not spend a million dollars on a cardboard picture of a dude, it's too much of a waste. I'd give the $1.3 to a friend so they could retire also, give it to a cause I like, you could do so much good rather than have a single baseball card.

i feel similarly...and who wants to live in socal anyway!!!!

[bbcard1]

It would buy a nice lake house in my area and I think there's still room for appreciation on some properties. In the meantime, I would sun my fat belly and drink Natty Lights on the deck.

[Snapolit1]

If I HAD to choose between the card and the bat . . . . the Babe gamer bat every time. Every single time.

Outside of this board, I never heard Joe Doyle's name in my life.

[mechanicalman]

Originally Posted by packs

Who do you guys think is paying for Doyle? Personally, my guess is a longtime (see old) T206 collector, and maybe only a small handful of other people like him as competition.

What about 20 years from now when these collectors are replaced? Does the Doyle still command attention to the tune of over a million dollars? I would guess no.

I never understand the argument that collectors of these vintage sets will dry up in the future. The set in question is already 114 years old. Why will it suddenly lack interest when it’s 134 years old?

That said, I’m not a set builder, and I don’t buy non-HoFers, so Doyle never interested me. I would have voted real estate, but if I’m being honest, I divested some big cards last year to buy cars and a boat. Far worse investments than cards or real estate. 😂 But the new acquisitions are a ton of fun and were worth parting with a few cards sitting in a bank vault.

[fkm_bky]

A nice place on the Green Bay side of Door County, all day long everyday vs. the other two options. If I had to choose between the Doyle and the Ruth bat. The Ruth bat hands down, no question.

Bill

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by mechanicalman

I never understand the argument that collectors of these vintage sets will dry up in the future. The set in question is already 114 years old. Why will it suddenly lack interest when it’s 134 years old?

That said, I’m not a set builder, and I don’t buy non-HoFers, so Doyle never interested me. I would have voted real estate, but if I’m being honest, I divested some big cards last year to buy cars and a boat. Far worse investments than cards or real estate. 😂 But the new acquisitions are a ton of fun and were worth parting with a few cards sitting in a bank vault.

Sam!! Good to see your post. Miss you. Post more often. Hope all is well

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by mechanicalman

I never understand the argument that collectors of these vintage sets will dry up in the future. The set in question is already 114 years old. Why will it suddenly lack interest when it’s 134 years old?

That said, I’m not a set builder, and I don’t buy non-HoFers, so Doyle never interested me. I would have voted real estate, but if I’m being honest, I divested some big cards last year to buy cars and a boat. Far worse investments than cards or real estate. 😂 But the new acquisitions are a ton of fun and were worth parting with a few cards sitting in a bank vault.

I've often thought about this too, where are the 25-35 year old T206 collectors right now? Are they still churning modern but will soon discover the beauty of T206? Why aren't they here learning about the set from the incredible knowledge base on Net54? When every 60+ collector is dead what will the landscape look like? Nobody really knows. Will the corporate shills keep pumping T206 to young collectors for profit?, unfortunately I think this will be the case. Will prices come down on the cards we cherish? Only if there's more sellers than buyers, and that can happen in any collecting cycle. Until then it's still a pretty fantastic ride.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

I've often thought about this too, where are the 25-35 year old T206 collectors right now? Are they still churning modern but will soon discover the beauty of T206? Why aren't they here learning about the set from the incredible knowledge base on Net54? When every 60+ collector is dead what will the landscape look like? Nobody really knows. Will the corporate shills keep pumping T206 to young collectors for profit?, unfortunately I think this will be the case. Will prices come down on the cards we cherish? Only if there's more sellers than buyers, and that can happen in any collecting cycle. Until then it's still a pretty fantastic ride.

They’re on Discord buying cards of guys they watch. Most of them think T206 and the old stuff is cool, but it’s 1) too expensive for most new collector budgets and 2) there’s no hit factor that drives much of their joy. The old stuff is appreciated when shown but they definitely aren’t rushing out to buy them. Net54 presumably skews a little bit older than the actual prewar collector base because forums are rather outdated in general these days.

There’s enough interest to show the values aren’t going to hit zero or anything but I seriously question the logic of this board that the values will inexorably rise forever and we should drain our 401K’s and take out loans to pump vintage cards. I’m not sure the 50-70’s year olds that dominate prewar are going to have an audience to cash in on forever.

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by G1911

They’re on Discord buying cards of guys they watch. Most of them think T206 and the old stuff is cool, but it’s 1) too expensive for most new collector budgets and 2) there’s no hit factor that drives much of their joy. The old stuff is appreciated when shown but they definitely aren’t rushing out to buy them. Net54 presumably skews a little bit older than the actual prewar collector base because forums are rather outdated in general these days.

There’s enough interest to show the values aren’t going to hit zero or anything but I seriously question the logic of this board that the values will inexorably rise forever and we should drain our 401K’s and take out loans to pump vintage cards. I’m not sure the 50-70’s year olds that dominate prewar are going to have an audience to cash in on forever.

Valid points, as a collector I don't really care if I pay 5k for a card and my kids sell it for 2500 after I'm dead. It's my collection and I build it for enjoyment, I care about the OG knowledge I get from this board, it's invaluable and will be lost imo at some point so I enjoy the ride. I also doubt anybody here is cashing out their 401k to buy cards, that would be a gambling addiction and while we all make sacrifices for our collections most folks draw a healthy line when it comes to that. It's a 401k meme at this point.

[packs]

Originally Posted by mechanicalman

I never understand the argument that collectors of these vintage sets will dry up in the future. The set in question is already 114 years old. Why will it suddenly lack interest when it’s 134 years old?

That said, I’m not a set builder, and I don’t buy non-HoFers, so Doyle never interested me. I would have voted real estate, but if I’m being honest, I divested some big cards last year to buy cars and a boat. Far worse investments than cards or real estate. 😂 But the new acquisitions are a ton of fun and were worth parting with a few cards sitting in a bank vault.

I didn't say that people would lose interest in T206s or even the Doyle variation, only that I don't see anyone paying anywhere close to 1.3 million dollars for it 20 or 30 years from now.

I believe that the person who paid 1.3 million dollars for it, and the under bidder on it, are likely two old-time collectors who are completionists and had to have it at any cost.

I'm just not sure that same fervor for a Doyle error will exist for all of time.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by packs

I didn't say that people would lose interest in T206s or even the Doyle variation, only that I don't see anyone paying anywhere close to 1.3 million dollars for it 20 or 30 years from now.

I believe that the person who paid 1.3 million dollars for it, and the under bidder on it, are likely two old-time collectors who are completionists and had to have it at any cost.

I'm just not sure that same fervor for a Doyle error will exist for all of time.

I think the usual argument for the possibility of long-term decline in interest in the hobby usually is based on a couple of theories/data points:

1) Baseball dies as a sport. Obviously Star Trek famously predicted this future. And certainly from time to time there are declarations about the imminent demise of the sport. And although it has declined in popularity over the last 75 years relative to other sports, there is still a fairly large fan base, and the sport doesn’t seem to be dying all that quickly.

2) It’s happened in other collectibles markets. Certainly anyone who watches antiques roadshow will tell you that there are plenty of pieces that were popular 50 years ago and the kids today aren’t at all interested. A little closer to home, the pessimists point to the stamp collecting world and suggest that it really fell off a cliff. I’m not saying this is likely, but it seems like a theoretical possibility.

Of course, plenty of other people take the opposite side and argue that the hobby will go in the direction of the fine art world, and we should all plan to add a few zeroes to the price of everything. I’m a bit skeptical of this outcome, but if you’re a serious bull, then this is your pitch.

Bottom line when it comes to obscure rarities like the Doyle is that it doesn’t have quite the same notoriety as a Wagner or 311 Mantle. But it’s also a lot more rare! So the price will almost always be dependent on how much a short list of people with a whole lot of cash are willing to pay, and it really only takes 2 people to drive up the price in an auction setting.

Another element that comes into play is whether it continues to be accepted as a variation that is required to have a complete set. I’m no T206 expert, but there may be other variations out there that aren’t currently recognized or required to have a complete set. If this variation were to fall out of favor and no longer be recognized, including being eliminated from spots like the PSA set registry, then the price probably falls, and not just a little.

[packs]

I'm under 40, I love baseball cards, am a lifelong collector and even if I won the billion dollar mega millions this month, I would have zero interest in paying anything for this card.

Only 6% of people on the board said they would invest in this card. I think that's a fairly accurate barometer re: not a whole lot of people looking to buy it at this price. And that's today. I'm projecting 30 years down the road and I'd be surprised if I were wrong.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by raulus

I think the usual argument for the possibility of long-term decline in interest in the hobby usually is based on a couple of theories/data points:

1) Baseball dies as a sport. Obviously Star Trek famously predicted this future. And certainly from time to time there are declarations about the imminent demise of the sport. And although it has declined in popularity over the last 75 years relative to other sports, there is still a fairly large fan base, and the sport doesn’t seem to be dying all that quickly.

2) It’s happened in other collectibles markets. Certainly anyone who watches antiques roadshow will tell you that there are plenty of pieces that were popular 50 years ago and the kids today aren’t at all interested. A little closer to home, the pessimists point to the stamp collecting world and suggest that it really fell off a cliff. I’m not saying this is likely, but it seems like a theoretical possibility.

Of course, plenty of other people take the opposite side and argue that the hobby will go in the direction of the fine art world, and we should all plan to add a few zeroes to the price of everything. I’m a bit skeptical of this outcome, but if you’re a serious bull, then this is your pitch.

Bottom line when it comes to obscure rarities like the Doyle is that it doesn’t have quite the same notoriety as a Wagner or 311 Mantle. But it’s also a lot more rare! So the price will almost always be dependent on how much a short list of people with a whole lot of cash are willing to pay, and it really only takes 2 people to drive up the price in an auction setting.

Another element that comes into play is whether it continues to be accepted as a variation that is required to have a complete set. I’m no T206 expert, but there may be other variations out there that aren’t currently recognized or required to have a complete set. If this variation were to fall out of favor and no longer be recognized, including being eliminated from spots like the PSA set registry, then the price probably falls, and not just a little.

regarding t206...I think as time goes by fewer and fewer "collectors" will be interested in attempting to complete the set...and will more likely just collect the hof'ers. I would not feel confident investing in a card like the doyle over time because to me it is a card for the wealthy completionist...and fewer future "Collectors" will be completionists imo.

[oldjudge]

Originally Posted by mechanicalman

I never understand the argument that collectors of these vintage sets will dry up in the future. The set in question is already 114 years old. Why will it suddenly lack interest when it’s 134 years old?

That said, I’m not a set builder, and I don’t buy non-HoFers, so Doyle never interested me. I would have voted real estate, but if I’m being honest, I divested some big cards last year to buy cars and a boat. Far worse investments than cards or real estate. 😂 But the new acquisitions are a ton of fun and were worth parting with a few cards sitting in a bank vault.

Hi Sam! I think you made some great choices. Be well my friend.

[mechanicalman]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

Hi Sam! I think you made some great choices. Be well my friend.

Ha. Thanks, Jay. Will always be grateful for our dealings. Hope you’re well!

[mechanicalman]

Side note: I’d love to see a Venn diagram of Wagner owners and Doyle error owners. I would wager there are almost no Doyle owners who don’t own a Wagner.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by mechanicalman

I never understand the argument that collectors of these vintage sets will dry up in the future. The set in question is already 114 years old. Why will it suddenly lack interest when it’s 134 years old?

That said, I’m not a set builder, and I don’t buy non-HoFers, so Doyle never interested me. I would have voted real estate, but if I’m being honest, I divested some big cards last year to buy cars and a boat. Far worse investments than cards or real estate. �� But the new acquisitions are a ton of fun and were worth parting with a few cards sitting in a bank vault.

When I sold my collection in 2015 almost half of my take home on it was put into buying a rental house. IT has trippled in price since I bought it. Yeah, I sold too soon but that wasn't the question. The answer for me is/was real estate.

That said, now, I have been looking at C8 Z06 convertibles. That would be more fun than a PSA 7 Young - Boston (not that it would necessarily buy one but it would pay for most of it, at least).
.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Leon

When I sold my collection in 2015 almost half of my take home on it was put into buying a rental house. IT has trippled in price since I bought it. Yeah, I sold too soon but that wasn't the question. The answer for me is/was real estate.

That said, now, I have been looking at C8 Z06 convertibles. That would be more fun than a PSA 7 Young - Boston (not that it would necessarily buy one but it would pay for most of it, at least).
.

Leon, if you choose to sell that Young, I am sure you can figure out how to PM me…

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

I'm not sure what kind of oceanfront property you can buy for $1.3 million--nothing in SoCal. That said, I wouldn't pay $1.3 million for a non-HOFer, no matter how scarce the card was. That just demonstrates the idiocy of set collecting. If there was an equally rare Doyle in a less popular set it would sell for maybe a thousand.

Almost certainly there are several equally rare Doyles in less popular sets. And I'm sure you're right about the price.

[Schwertfeger1007]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

I'm not sure what kind of oceanfront property you can buy for $1.3 million--nothing in SoCal. That said, I wouldn't pay $1.3 million for a non-HOFer, no matter how scarce the card was. That just demonstrates the idiocy of set collecting. If there was an equally rare Doyle in a less popular set it would sell for maybe a thousand.

Kind of like spending insane money for relatively unknown California Leaguers while putting together an even tougher set ???

[oldjudge]

[QUOTE=Schwertfeger1007;2365064]Kind of like spending insane money for relatively unknown California Leaguers while putting together an even tougher set ???


Agree 100%

[z28jd]

It feels like people have different opinions of what "burning a hole in your pocket" means. I took it as you have to be set in life to have $1.3M just burning a hole, so investing wouldn't come into the thought process.

If I just had $1.3M for nothing in particular, I'd just start giving it to relatives, but that wasn't an option.

I have zero interest in owning real estate, especially since I'd already own something in this scenario of being set in life.

I have a Babe Ruth bat that was used in the original Babe Ruth movie. I also don't really collect memorabilia.

I collected T206 cards for years, so this was an easy choice for me. I picked the Doyle card. If in theory I'm willing to give away the hole-burning money, then I wouldn't care if it lost value over the years.