So you have $1.3 million burning a hole in your pocket

[raulus]

Originally Posted by packs

I didn't say that people would lose interest in T206s or even the Doyle variation, only that I don't see anyone paying anywhere close to 1.3 million dollars for it 20 or 30 years from now.

I believe that the person who paid 1.3 million dollars for it, and the under bidder on it, are likely two old-time collectors who are completionists and had to have it at any cost.

I'm just not sure that same fervor for a Doyle error will exist for all of time.

I think the usual argument for the possibility of long-term decline in interest in the hobby usually is based on a couple of theories/data points:

1) Baseball dies as a sport. Obviously Star Trek famously predicted this future. And certainly from time to time there are declarations about the imminent demise of the sport. And although it has declined in popularity over the last 75 years relative to other sports, there is still a fairly large fan base, and the sport doesn’t seem to be dying all that quickly.

2) It’s happened in other collectibles markets. Certainly anyone who watches antiques roadshow will tell you that there are plenty of pieces that were popular 50 years ago and the kids today aren’t at all interested. A little closer to home, the pessimists point to the stamp collecting world and suggest that it really fell off a cliff. I’m not saying this is likely, but it seems like a theoretical possibility.

Of course, plenty of other people take the opposite side and argue that the hobby will go in the direction of the fine art world, and we should all plan to add a few zeroes to the price of everything. I’m a bit skeptical of this outcome, but if you’re a serious bull, then this is your pitch.

Bottom line when it comes to obscure rarities like the Doyle is that it doesn’t have quite the same notoriety as a Wagner or 311 Mantle. But it’s also a lot more rare! So the price will almost always be dependent on how much a short list of people with a whole lot of cash are willing to pay, and it really only takes 2 people to drive up the price in an auction setting.

Another element that comes into play is whether it continues to be accepted as a variation that is required to have a complete set. I’m no T206 expert, but there may be other variations out there that aren’t currently recognized or required to have a complete set. If this variation were to fall out of favor and no longer be recognized, including being eliminated from spots like the PSA set registry, then the price probably falls, and not just a little.