Auction amounts - how high is high

[Shoeless Moe]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Set Collecting has gone the way of the dinosaur, agree. However I know more and more younger people that are collecting high grade 50’s and 60’s Star Cards, Mantle is always top of their list. We are talking 20-40 age range. To me there is no comparison between set builders and Star Collectors in High Grade. They want the money cards not the commons.

This is post has post has prob 5-10 guys seriously thinking about trying to join the 52 Mantle Club

Yes, and it was COVID that brought the surge of new collectors, but how many will lose money because they thought it was easy money and then drop out, how many will just lose interest because they arn't seeing returns quick enough and they will drop out, and others that got in will just lose interest. Yes some will be hooked, but I don't see there being a lot. Right now the dust has somewhat settled, and people are still overpaying. ALL collectors buying now are over-paying. You have to if you don't have the patience. But the boom is over. It's still much greater then when it started because currently there are more bodies in, but they will slowly dissipate through getting older and death or lack of interest and fast money. I'd say in 5-10 years you could see just about everything at or near 2019 prices. Barring another worldwide deadly outbreak which is always possible.

[Touch'EmAll]

There are a lot of relatively new collectors - kids and collectors in their 20 - 40's.

These new collectors are probably more into modern cards. How many LeBron and Mike Trout cards can one continue to collect as the decades roll by?

At some point, they will want something new to them - vintage ! As collectors age, mature and discretionary income increases, there are going to be A LOT of these collectors move to vintage. Once us "oldies" pass away, the vintage market will not suffer and could actually boom to ever new dizzying heights.

Card collecting is here to stay. The population of this country is just going up and up and up - more collectors as time passes. Demand will increase. They are only so many nice cards of Cobb, Ruth and the like.

[Shoeless Moe]

and consider this.....I'm assuming must of you have go to Nationals. The recent ones I've been too I'd say the vast majority of buyers/shoppers are over 50. Yes there are youngsters, but nowhere near the amount of over 50's.

And who sets up selling these nice cards?

I'd say 95% of those with tables are guys over 50.

Where will those tables be when they are all gone in 30 years.

Covid was the Perfect Storm, hit right when the most collectors had their most money, and drew in new people who wanted a slice of the pie.

The Collector Pool will thin greatly.....just give it a week or 2 and there will be a thread about some longtime collector who died. There is one every other week if you have not noticed.

[mrreality68]

The hardest part of the price surge is on the true collectors. Those of us that are true collectors that want to buy, hold, and enjoy cards can only buy less because we have to pay alot more than we used to so we can buy cards but buy less than we would have.
For those who are investors if they have just been buying, selling, and flipping cards they have been doing very well for how much longer not sure. The key is what they are buying and what price point.
As many said the High End Hofer's and famous players and in the better grades are all doing well and should continue to do so.
However, those same cards in the middle to lower grades that have been spiking up in prices may not stay that way. Many mentioned in other threads that some cards/series have been slowing down or just staying steady.
The collectibles, the ticket stubs, photos and the likes have been spiking dramatically and those may have the biggest risk for down size.

But as many mentioned I believe even if the card market slides backwards it will just move forward again after as it always does.

Based on the popularity and attendance of regional and National Card show I think there is a great pipeline of youth getting into the collecting business.

[Shoeless Moe]

Originally Posted by Touch'EmAll

Card collecting is here to stay. The population of this country is just going up and up and up - more collectors as time passes. Demand will increase. They are only so many nice cards of Cobb, Ruth and the like.

Huh?

https://www.census.gov/library/stori...he-nation.html

and...

Population declined in 17 states in 2021, according to an annual report from the Pew Charitable Trusts Fiscal 50 project. A long-term trend of reduced growth rate appears to have been amplified by COVID-19 deaths and continued restrictions on immigration.

[Shoeless Moe]

Leon ran an age Poll on here back in 2010........if you fast forward those numbers adding 12 years to everyone.

76% of the board (those who answered that is) is over 50.

And since most of the youngsters collect the more modern stuff, and yes there will always be a few exceptions......but sorry those exceptions ain't sniffing 76% ...a very small amount of under 40 collects vintage.

And yes I know they all want a 52 Mantle and a Ruth Card Ticket or Photo, but no one is gonna care about Nap Lajoie and Tris Speaker and even Stan Musial let alone the 1000's of players not at their stature in 30 years.

LeBron & Trout will be their vintage.......and LeBron Junior & Ken Griffey the 4th will be there current.

[Touch'EmAll]

Yes, I do believe the population of this country is going to trend up.

Micro level, there may be odd years with decline. But lets look at the bigger picture:

USA population Year 2000 = 282.2 million

2005 = 295.5 million

2010 = 309.3 million

2015 = 320.7 million

2020 = 329.5 million

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by 53toppscollector

I mean, maybe, but maybe not. There are kids in their 20s/30s who are obsessed with T206 cards and none of them ever saw any of those guys play. In fact, is there anyone on this board who ever saw any of the T206 subjects actually play a game? That would be impossible, I believe, just based on basic math.

This ^^ +100%

I am 47, and love the players and cards from the late 1890s-1920s. I never saw any of them. My parents never saw any of them. I am pretty sure my grandparents barely (if at all) saw any of them. Very few people alive today, let alone on net54, ever saw these players. Yet t206s, 1914 CJs, etc are as coveted as ever.

And it’s not just baseball players. George Washington and Abe Lincoln items sell for a lot more than Kennedy and FDR, yet whoever is buying them never even had a chance to meet Washington’s great great niece.

I think the argument that “nobody will be into these guys bc they have never seen them” has been proven wrong time and time again. But you do you and I will do me. Each to their own

Eddie says: “nobody appreciates me anymore”

[Shoeless Moe]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

This ^^ +100%

I am 47, and love the players and cards from the late 1890s-1920s. I never saw any of them. My parents never saw any of them. I am pretty sure my grandparents barely (if at all) saw any of them. Very few people alive today, let alone on net54, ever saw these players. Yet t206s, 1914 CJs, etc are as coveted as ever.

And it’s not just baseball players. George Washington and Abe Lincoln items sell for a lot more than Kennedy and FDR, yet whoever is buying them never even had a chance to meet Washington’s great great niece.

I think the argument that “nobody will be into these guys bc they have never seen them” has been proven wrong time and time again. But you do you and I will do me. Each to their own

I didn't say this, not sure if anyone did. What I'm saying is there will be a dramatic drop in collectors of vintage in 30 years. You being 47 is right on that bubble. You ain't a spring chicken and you ain't an old fart. But you were in the era of the baseball card collecting boom - the 80's. Let's call it the pre-cell phone ERA.

And I'm not say ALL interest will be gone. I'm saying now you have about 75% who collect vintage 50 (maybe 47 and older. 25% who collect vintage 50 and under. So in 20-30 years that 75% will be all but gone, and I just don't see the 25% expanding to 75%. I see it holding steady, and even possibly dropping.....or maybe it does expand, but if so maybe to 35% give or take.

I think there will come a time there will be a lot less people in the swimming pool. Now it's over crowded. But we have already seen some get out from 2021. Still more in then 2019, but through attrition the numbers will change.

Also, in 30 years people might be spending their money on cars that do things we've yet to see, and trips in a rocket ship to outer space and back. Would you trade a '52 Mantle for a trip to into space and back? Would you rather have a material thing or an experience? I think the younger generation will opt for the experience. And for those in 30 years will they want to show off a Lebron Triple Logo do-hickey or a Mordecai Brown? We are still in that group that studied and read about the game even though we didn't see them play. Are the next generation doing much reading on the history of the game?

We are still in the boom, and collecting is still on fire, so somewhat hard to imagine, but I think there is a strong possibility prices could come down if the cards fall as they might.

[Casey2296]

You make some good points Paul and it's one aspect of the market. The beautiful thing about the run up coinciding with aging out is the plethora of high quality rare baseball cards that money brings out, whether it's due to death (uncle jimmy), or taking advantage of the market (David Hall), but the cards available right now on a fairly consistent basis is incredible. Quite frankly I don't care what my collection is worth when I'm dead, my kids will open 4-5 suitcases of cards reflecting my collecting journey, they'll know how important baseball was in my life and hopefully say "Jesus, he built a pretty solid collection".

Of course they'll be saying it to Al Crisafulli's kids as they consign it cuz Al and I will both be sleeping with the fishes.

Does money matter? You betcha, but as a collector it's way down on the list when you compare it to the relationships formed in this hobby and on this sub with old time guys, young folks catching the pre-war fever, and everything in between.

Pre war is like beachfront property, they ain't making anymore of it...

[3-2-count]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

Pre war is like beachfront property, they ain't making anymore of it...

This ^^^^^^^

[Shoeless Moe]

Originally Posted by 3-2-count

This ^^^^^^^

Correct, but there will come a day when that beachfront property is in the ocean.

The question is not how much of it there is (although in another thread wasn't there yet another find?)....so they may not be making more, but again as that certain age group who grew up in the 60's 70's and 80's die off these "hoards/finds" come to light because their families don't want or care about the cards.

So again not that they are making more, but that the pool for those that want it will thin, and the age group that is currently holding the vast majority of it is in that 75% age group of over 50, so more will become available to a smaller group that wants it.

It's not like it's imminent, but it's coming. In the meantime some cards will see record prices, others will fall in price. The current swimming pool is packed so nothing changing dramatically in the immediate future.

[mrreality68]

the one advantage of the cycle of collectors and cards is that many cards that have not been seen, sold, or traded in an extremely long time have starting coming up for sale(as some want to profit off the surge or as they start dispersing their collections for whatever reason(age, health, retirement, etc)) and this has resulted in an opportunity for collectors to get cards they never thought they would see or get a chance to own.

When those come up especially the key players or key cards it becomes a frenzy for it and the demand goes up and the prices goes with it accordingly.

[cardsagain74]

The whole "once the bug bites you, that's it" assumption of steady high demand is far from infallible.

Anyone who set up at card shows around 1994 can attest to that. The junk wax "bug" fell off a cliff in a hurry.

[BKaufmann14]

Figured since I live close to wrigley now might as well add this puppy to the collection. First Carolina Brights in the PC.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

There's some powerful voodoo going on, no doubt about it. But here's my question: what percentage of the big money driving the big prices today is for collecting, and how much for investment and speculation? I'll start by guessing about 20% collecting and 80% investment. Love to hear what others think, and why.

Unfortunately, in today's hobby, i think you are correct.
.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by Leon

Unfortunately, in today's hobby, i think you are correct.
.

I would agree probably 80 % investing and what happens the big money starts buying up the higher grade cards so they are no longer available or affordable so the middle grade card becomes the go to piece for more people this driving demand and lowering supply and thus driving up prices.
Then collectors look for other collecting options ie memorabilia, photos etc and those items go up as the demand also.

So collectors still collect but buy less because paying more or they buy lower grades than they had in the past

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

I would agree probably 80 % investing and what happens the big money starts buying up the higher grade cards so they are no longer available or affordable so the middle grade card becomes the go to piece for more people this driving demand and lowering supply and thus driving up prices. Then collectors look for other collecting options ie memorabilia, photos etc and those items go up as the demand also. So collectors still collect but buy less because paying more or they buy lower grades than they had in the past

I think cards have become a fungible commodity, like coins and metals in general, stocks, bitcoins, art, etc., and there are no doubt consortiums of investors here and abroad moving into and out of them like any other commodity with the help of professional advisors, AHs, etc. The further you move in the hobby away from graded cards, into memorabilia and oddball of all kinds, the percentage of collectors probably goes up and that of investors goes down, but as you say, there is a snowball effect driving everything up as collectors search to find affordable niches in the marketplace in which they can still compete.

[53toppscollector]

One more chart



The obvious caveat here is compound interest.

Your stock portfolio compounds, so the amount you have invested every year would increase exponentially in an index fund. If you had bought one Red Cobb in 2010 and held it, you still only own 1 Red Cobb today. I picked those cards mostly at random (and quickly) just to look at, they are all iconic cards in the hobby, obviously, and their value is different from a 1987 Topps Wade Boggs. I wanted to use the 1989 UD Griffey, but there were just too many sales in a PSA 10 and the site wasn't loading properly, lol. I thought this chart was interesting to just to see how drastically those cards have shot up in the last 12 years

I used VCP to get the average sale price for each of the cards in the given year in the grade noted. For the S&P 500 numbers, I just exported the closing price for every day from 2010 through today, and took the closing number on the last day of the year for every year. For 2022, obviously I used yesterday's closing price, from here

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EG...stedClose=true

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by 53toppscollector

One more chart



The obvious caveat here is compound interest.

Your stock portfolio compounds, so the amount you have invested every year would increase exponentially in an index fund. If you had bought one Red Cobb in 2010 and held it, you still only own 1 Red Cobb today. I picked those cards mostly at random (and quickly) just to look at, they are all iconic cards in the hobby, obviously, and their value is different from a 1987 Topps Wade Boggs. I wanted to use the 1989 UD Griffey, but there were just too many sales in a PSA 10 and the site wasn't loading properly, lol. I thought this chart was interesting to just to see how drastically those cards have shot up in the last 12 years

I used VCP to get the average sale price for each of the cards in the given year in the grade noted. For the S&P 500 numbers, I just exported the closing price for every day from 2010 through today, and took the closing number on the last day of the year for every year. For 2022, obviously, I used yesterday's closing price, from here

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EG...stedClose=true

Excellent Chart Thank You!

This is what I have been saying for the past several years if you’re collecting as an investment you want the best players, the best well-known card issue(not oddball) of the highest graded nicest centered you can find. This Chart Shows that!

1. Ruth
2. Cobb
3. Jackie
4. Mantle
5. Mays

[JeremyW]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Excellent Chart Thank You!

This is what I have been saying for the past several years if you’re collecting as an investment you want the best players, the best well-known card issue(not oddball) of the highest graded nicest centered you can find. This Chart Shows that!

1. Ruth
2. Cobb
3. Jackie
4. Mantle
5. Mays

I think oddball issues are solid with any of these players.

[Shoeless Moe]

Originally Posted by 53toppscollector

One more chart



The obvious caveat here is compound interest.

Your stock portfolio compounds, so the amount you have invested every year would increase exponentially in an index fund. If you had bought one Red Cobb in 2010 and held it, you still only own 1 Red Cobb today. I picked those cards mostly at random (and quickly) just to look at, they are all iconic cards in the hobby, obviously, and their value is different from a 1987 Topps Wade Boggs. I wanted to use the 1989 UD Griffey, but there were just too many sales in a PSA 10 and the site wasn't loading properly, lol. I thought this chart was interesting to just to see how drastically those cards have shot up in the last 12 years

I used VCP to get the average sale price for each of the cards in the given year in the grade noted. For the S&P 500 numbers, I just exported the closing price for every day from 2010 through today, and took the closing number on the last day of the year for every year. For 2022, obviously I used yesterday's closing price, from here

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EG...stedClose=true

Did any of these grade level cards go at Heritage yesterday? Curious if they went up or down?

[Yoda]

The fine art market is currently on fire. it appears that high value cards of the usual suspects is now being considered marginal fine art as rich folks reset their asset allocations. A '14 CJ Joe Jax the same as a Picasso? Not quite, of course, but definitely a shift in investor attitudes.