Just sad. No, not sad. Pathetic.

[tschock]

Originally Posted by T206Collector

What I am trying to say is that an "auction setting" is really no different than a BIN setting when you assume that there is the potential for shill bidding.

To imagine a world where the shiller is eliminated and the price drops down by $50 is the same thing as imagining a world where a seller places his listing price $50 less than he was willing to sell something for. Stated another way, if you told the shiller up front that he was going to get caught and prosecuted, he would either list his item at the higher price and list it with a higher reserve or minimum starting bid. The fantasy of a world where shilling doesn't exist and markets-clear prices are realized doesn't exist, least of all on eBay.

The reverse is also true. If you had a used car that you wanted to sell for $1,000, and a guy saw it and bought it for that price, you'd be happy, right? But, what if he recognized that your car had really rare features, and he flipped it immediately for $100,000? Of course the buyer would have wanted to get more than $1,000 for it in that case. But there is no mechanism for getting any more money to the buyer. The buyer was happy at his price point, as was the seller, but for different reasons. That certainly doesn't make speculating as a buyer illegal or immoral.

I understand what you are saying, and I think we are discussing the economic theory of what would happen if there was no shilling. We can theorize, but I don't think we can truly say. I could just as well argue that the $100 BIN, that may have been shilled up to $100 in an auction setting, might not cause a $50 BIN without shilling, but it might produce a $75 BIN, which is still better than being shilled for $100.

The end result might be no different (which we can only speculate on), but the method to get there is different. An auction is different than a BIN because they are different contracts, with different risks / rewards borne different parties.

Again my real point and the reason for my scenario is the argument by some, that as long as you get an item within what you bid, it doesn't matter that the market price might have been less (sans shilling).

[MattyC]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

Bill...I was being facetious...I think the concept of "being happy for a card" is kinda ridiculous!!!!

I don't. To each his own.

[calvindog]

Originally Posted by japhi

I'm not a fan of shilling but if that was a card I wanted I would set a snipe at the number I'm comfortable, and at the same time notify Rick about the activity. He may ban those bidders and you might get the card at a good price. Worst case scenario you pay what your comfortable paying for the card.

This thinking hurts my brain. Let's say you want a card up at auction which you are willing to pay $200 for -- and you put in such a snipe. A shill bidder puts in a bid at $199 with the next lowest bid at $50. So you end up getting the card at $200 and you're supposed to be happy? When you were just ripped off $149? Really?

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by MattyC

I don't. To each his own.

absolument!

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by MattyC

Bill,

I understand and respect your thinking as well, regarding the what ifs of spending X more because of shilling.

I guess where I take a different path is that I see no mental benefit to contemplating all those what ifs. I will never know what a card will have cost me in some alternate reality where the auction was 100% legit collectors bidding. I don't know how such a perfect auction would be run or ever exist.

As another said, in lieu of the straight auction, sellers or owners should just put up reserves or BINS and Best Offers and negotiate for a price.

I think it was Bob Marley who said, "It's a foolish dog who barks at a flying bird." If the 'what ifs' reach a tipping point or critical mass where contemplating them bugs you more than having the card would please you, then I would let the hypothetical card in question go. If having the card at a price you're okay paying will bring you enough joy that you don't care about having potentially spent less in an alternate reality, then I say win the card. At least that's how I see it, and maybe that alternate perspective can be helpful in some way

There's really no mental benefit at all, Matt. You are correct. It's just that circumstances have led me to rethink a good many things.

I've always believed that there is but one immutable tenet: the only thing in life that is certain is uncertainty. Well, Ebay's dumbfounding lack of rule enforcement has me rethinking that, too.

[T206Collector]

Originally Posted by the 'stache

Ebay's dumbfounding lack of rule enforcement has me rethinking that, too.

I think it's pretty clearly calculated to encourage shilling. Which is why I just assume that all ebay auction sellers have a friend in Gibraltar bidding up their lots. The ones that don't use outrageous BINs instead.

Mostly tongue in cheek....

[japhi]

Thanks Bill, I didn't think you were accusing me of anything and wasn't offended at all.

[japhi]

Originally Posted by calvindog

This thinking hurts my brain. Let's say you want a card up at auction which you are willing to pay $200 for -- and you put in such a snipe. A shill bidder puts in a bid at $199 with the next lowest bid at $50. So you end up getting the card at $200 and you're supposed to be happy? When you were just ripped off $149? Really?

Open to any solutions you have that can save me money buying on Ebay. If you have ways I can pay $150 for a card that typically sells for $200 I'm all ears.

[Jewish-collector]

Why is everyone so shocked ? This is a typical thread. A member comes on to complain about a situation on eBay and/or an auction house. He wants to collect vintage baseball cards (or collect memorabilia, autographs, whatever) to a get away from his highly competitive & stressful career. The problem is he ends up having as much stress, if not more than in the hobby/business than he has in his profession.

Just come to the National & let's have a couple cold ones over dinner.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Jewish-collector

Why is everyone so shocked ? This is a typical thread. A member comes on to complain about a situation on eBay and/or an auction house. He wants to collect vintage baseball cards (or collect memorabilia, autographs, whatever) to a get away from his highly competitive & stressful career. The problem is he ends up having as much stress, if not more than in the hobby/business than he has in his profession.

Just come to the National & let's have a couple cold ones over dinner.

Cold soda's I presume?

[calvindog]

Originally Posted by japhi

Open to any solutions you have that can save me money buying on Ebay. If you have ways I can pay $150 for a card that typically sells for $200 I'm all ears.

It typically sells for $200 because it's shilled every time. Ever think that maybe your valuations are skewered because of fraud? As for a solution to get fair market value, the crooked ebay sellers with the miraculously fortuitous under bidders who never win an auction but whose bids are 95% with the sellers need to be removed. I've represented some eBay sellers who have been kicked off despite high sales. It does happen.

[japhi]

Originally Posted by calvindog

It typically sells for $200 because it's shilled every time. Ever think that maybe your valuations are skewered because of fraud? As for a solution to get fair market value, the crooked ebay sellers with the miraculously fortuitous under bidders who never win an auction but whose bids are 95% with the sellers need to be removed. I've represented some eBay sellers who have been kicked off despite high sales. It does happen.

The cards I follow seem to always find the market range, and I don't believe every auction is shilled. Here is a card I'm following/chasing, a c55 Vezina:

3/2/14 eBay Listing | Image rcdevil s***s Best Offer $5,200.00
6/12/13 eBay Image prewarcardcollector l***v 35 $4,901.00
1/31/12 eBay Image exchefy1 t***i Best Offer $7,000.00
1/27/12 Mile High Image 12 $5,483.52
5/2/10 REA Image 21 $5,287.50
10/14/07 eBay Image jtn2000 gomaz 24 $5,801.00
8/31/07 Mastro 29 $5,251.20

There is a pretty defined market value for this card; BIN or Auction, Ebay or AH, this is a $5200 card. Did shilling set an inflated price? Possibly, but today I'm going to have to pop around 5200 bucks to buy this card, shill or no shill.

We are in complete agreement that bid retractors are losers and Ebay should manage to it. I spend a shit ton on Ebay and never have retracted a bid, and have only returned 1 card in the last 5 years.

[buymycards]

Here is another view of how prices may be affected by bidders. (I think this was discussed in a thread several years ago.) Let's say that I paid $5k for a certain card in a certain grade and the VCP average supports that price. Now I see a similar card on ebay and it is a few hours from closing and the price is $2k. So, I am thinking, I can't let this card go for $2k because that will bring the VCP average down and my card will be "worth" less, so I keep bidding it up to protect the value of my original card.

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by buymycards

Here is another view of how prices may be affected by bidders. (I think this was discussed in a thread several years ago.) Let's say that I paid $5k for a certain card in a certain grade and the VCP average supports that price. Now I see a similar card on ebay and it is a few hours from closing and the price is $2k. So, I am thinking, I can't let this card go for $2k because that will bring the VCP average down and my card will be "worth" less, so I keep bidding it up to protect the value of my original card.

I understand what you're saying, but it's just hard to imagine someone doing that. Let's say when you paid $5K for that card, you were in a bidding war with one other bidder and it drive the price to $5K, but you won the card. Now another card of the same kind and grade is on eBay with a high bid of $2K. Well, this time there is no bidding war to drive the price up. I can't see you bidding on the card at that point, just to keep the VCP average up. What if you ended up winning the card for say $2200 because nobody outbid you? Now you have two cards, one you paid $5K for, the other you paid $2200 for, and it still lowers the VCP average to $3600.

I just can't see someone throwing up a bid on a card to keep the VCP price up knowing that they could possibly "win" the card.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

I understand what you're saying, but it's just hard to imagine someone doing that. Let's say when you paid $5K for that card, you were in a bidding war with one other bidder and it drive the price to $5K, but you won the card. Now another card of the same kind and grade is on eBay with a high bid of $2K. Well, this time there is no bidding war to drive the price up. I can't see you bidding on the card at that point, just to keep the VCP average up. What if you ended up winning the card for say $2200 because nobody outbid you? Now you have two cards, one you paid $5K for, the other you paid $2200 for, and it still lowers the VCP average to $3600.

I just can't see someone throwing up a bid on a card to keep the VCP price up knowing that they could possibly "win" the card.

This has been discussed at some point...I think you'd be surprised how many people "bid up" cards they perceive as bargains as compared to prior sales prices...so as to "protect" their investment...with no intention of actually trying to win said card.

Sure this can backfire...but with tougher cards...this occurs all of the time.

[calvindog]

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

I just can't see someone throwing up a bid on a card to keep the VCP price up knowing that they could possibly "win" the card.

Happens all the time. And as stated above, sometimes a genuine market value for a card is arrived at after the card is sold multiple times with shill bidding kicking the price up higher than it should be in the first place. After a while, the market assumes that is what the card is worth based on false data.

[chernieto]

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

I understand what you're saying, but it's just hard to imagine someone doing that. Let's say when you paid $5K for that card, you were in a bidding war with one other bidder and it drive the price to $5K, but you won the card. Now another card of the same kind and grade is on eBay with a high bid of $2K. Well, this time there is no bidding war to drive the price up. I can't see you bidding on the card at that point, just to keep the VCP average up. What if you ended up winning the card for say $2200 because nobody outbid you? Now you have two cards, one you paid $5K for, the other you paid $2200 for, and it still lowers the VCP average to $3600.

I just can't see someone throwing up a bid on a card to keep the VCP price up knowing that they could possibly "win" the card.

a similar rare card doesn't have to owned to be bid up obviously.
If I saw a card I valued at 5k by Rick & VCP & I could get it for 3k and offer it for 4 and feel like I was giving someone a better deal than previous prices I would consider it. Clearly I am not alone in that or I would win more of those cards at 40% below VCP. Maybe I'm shill & I didn't even know it