Are Baseball Cards Destined to Slowly Diminish in Value?

[tedzan]

Let's go back to 1982 and for example I'll talk about the 1949 Leaf BB cards that you collect. I was acquiring this set's scarce 2nd series
commons for $25 (Ex cards) to complete my 98-card set. Nowadays these same SP Leafs go for $500 each.

I really lucked out at a BB card show in NJ by acquiring the Leaf Satchell Paige for a cash/trade deal equalling $200. Nowadays the same
Leaf Paige goes for $10,000+.

The U.S. economy in the early 1980's, when you were born, was suffering. High unemployment and high Interest rates. Most people were
stashing their cash into Savings accounts and getting up to a 20% return. Not many were "investing" in collectibles in the early 1980's.

By the end of that decade, the hobby was doing great, as unemployment dropped and Interest rates were down around 7%.

Baseball card values levelled off from 1990 to 1998. Then, started going up again in the late 1990's to their current values. Currently, low
Interest rates have offset the failing economy and card values are certainly looking good. However, the Sub-prime Home Mortgage problem
is not going away; and, may actually get worse. This factor may affect card values in the future.

Finally, I don't see as many kids getting into BB card collecting as did in the 1980's and 1990's. Therefore, this hobby's growth is diminishing.
There are quite a few factors causing this....but, that's a story for another time.


P.S.......Sorry, I corrected you regarding the year of the Leaf cards. I collected them as a kid; and, trust me they were issued in the Spring
and Summer of 1949. I wrote an article on this set in the OLD CARDBOARD Magazine (Issue #9). You'll find it very interesting and it explains
why these cards are a 1949-only issue.


TED Z

[bosoxphan]

i think about football in relation to baseball. Football is clearly the most popular sport in America and its really not even that close. Wonder if classic football cards will eventually gain in popularity quicker than baseball cards going forward.

[mcadams]

Funny to hear everyone state their ages. I too am 34 and I don't collect much of anything from the 50's, for many of the reasons already discussed here. I collect Aaron because my parents were at the game at the old Atlanta Fulton County Stadium when he broke the HR record, so we have sort of a family connection with Aaron and the Braves in general. But other than Aaron, I don't touch 50's stuff because I never saw any of the guys play, and more importantly I don't have ANY attachment or sentimental view toward that era.

I do feel an attachment to most all N series cards because I view them more as historical pieces and also as artwork. I recognize that our country invented the game of baseball and THOSE were the guys who were there as the game was first created. That kind of historical appeal, I agree, will never go away.

[theseeker]

In this global economy, America's middle-class will continue to be squeezed. As the standard of living in this country heads downward, the very American hobby of Baseball card collecting will almost certainly follow the same path. In American, the lower economic classes never have participated in the hobby for obvious monetary reasons. With many more projected to join their ranks in the future the hobby will largely dwindle down to affluent history buffs.

[bbcard1]

Originally Posted by bosoxphan

i think about football in relation to baseball. Football is clearly the most popular sport in America and its really not even that close. Wonder if classic football cards will eventually gain in popularity quicker than baseball cards going forward.

I sincerely doubt it. Football is very much an event driven thing. Most fans don't care if it's Leroy Kelly or Thurman Thomas or Ahmad Bradshaw tottin the rock...it's just the result that matters.

History in football is not nearly as appreciated. Most guys you'll find at your average NFL game have no idea who Pete Pihos or Tommy McDonald were. And there's a good reason for that.

It is absurd to compare the eras. A decent DIII team could probably play with most NFL squads of the 30s. As late as the 1960s, players as a whole were either far smaller or far slower than the modern player. It's not to say they didn't have great accomplishments...they did...or that the best then wouldn't be the best now...I think Jim Brown may well be the greatest American athlete...but we're talking about a mean.

Football players have short careers as a rule which keeps them from building a strong fan base over more than a decade.

They don't look on the field like they look on the street. They have a helmet on.

These are just a few of the reasons...I think football card collecting, for the most part, will be a lot like penny collecting. It's a great hobby but not necessarily a great investment.

[egbeachley]

Originally Posted by tedzan

Let's go back to 1982 and for example I'll talk about the 1949 Leaf BB cards that you collect. I was acquiring this set's scarce 2nd series
commons for $25 (Ex cards) to complete my 98-card set. Nowadays these same SP Leafs go for $500 each.


TED Z

I took a quick look at the stock market during the same time frame. From mid-1982 to mid-2011, the Dow and NASDAQ went up 15-fold and 16-fold. Not much different than those 1949 Leafs which went up 20-fold.

That being said, the 1949 Leafs were still better and even if they were the same, I bet owning the cards were more fun.

[JLange]

...to our nation since 1980! Roughly 33% more people. Even a diminished interest in baseball / collecting cards in 50 years could potentially equate to a much larger market than today.

[Jcfowler6]

I agree Jason.

[vargha]

What about tulips? Does anyone foresee the market coming back for them?

[jrog007]

Tulips don't have Cobb, Ruth, Williams, Mantle, etc. If tulips were in the shape of those that had accomplished great things and had been the idol of thousands they might make a comeback. I don't believe that sports collectibles are invincible and not susceptible to economic decline that plagues every market from time to time, but as long as sports are an important part of the American psyche, it is hard to imagine a total collapse of the market. However, if there was a total collpase of the market, wouldn't it be awesome to be able to get all of those items that are completely out of range for a relative bargain.

[Collect Equity]

Here's my two (or maybe three) cents:

-I think that vintage pre-war will maintain value for a long-time to come. After all, it seems like a large percentage of us responding (myself included) are in our early 30s. We will continue to buy cards for at least 30 years to come. Plus, as we get older and our kids move out, we should have more disposable income. So I think vintage cards are safe to at least keep pace with inflation for 30+ years.

-I believe that currently produced limited numbered cards of key sets will be worth good money in the future. This is because all of us are watching these people play and there's something exciting about owning a rookie card of a player you've seen play. (specifically the Pujols rookies could continue to climb to crazy prices)

[parenthetical side note: are there more '52 Topps Mantles out there or Pujols Bowman Chrome cards (print run of 500)? I'd rather own a Pujols rookie in a heart beat because I never saw Mantle play and have seen Pujols (plus I am a Red Sox fan and wouldn't spend money on anything Yankees)

-I think cards from the 60s and 70s will stay stagnant or go down in price. Our generation never saw those guys play. We will either gravitate to the pre-war *old and rare is cool) or the modern, but why do I care about cards from the 1960s?

-I believe that the oddball and rare vintage cards will continue to rise the most. The internet makes it easy to research the esoteric and oddball cards that in the past were overlooked.

-I think the international market will also help. The World Baseball Classic should help to drive interest in international markets.

-I think soccer cards will actually rise in price, specifically cards of Pele from the 1950s. Globally soccer is the most popular sport and cards (or stickers from Panini) are part of this allure. Some day some American whiz kid will do for soccer cards what Tiger Woods did for golf cards (who woulda' thought that mid-80s Golf cards would be worth anything? Or an SI for Kids card?)

-In a nutshell, if you are investing you should be selective to only rare (true for both vintage and modern) and aim for a 7 year investment or less. If you are collecting then buy what you enjoy and know you will get more from your hobby some day than if your hobby was owning horses.

[mintacular]

You lost me when you tried to argue that a limited Pujols rc would be worth more than a '52 Mantle in the future...plus a bunch of other stuff you said. It's important not to project your personal preferences to the market as a whole

[yawie99]

As much as I hate to say it, I'm bearish on the hobby over the long haul. The game itself is still popular with kids, but baseball cards have almost no hold on the imagination or interest of today's children. I suppose there's hope that Pokemon and other gaming cards or even fads like Silly Bandz might prime kids for later collecting behavior, but I see little future nostalgic attachment to baseball cards. There will always be a market, of course, but I doubt that natural population growth will offset the dwindling percentage of young people that collect.