Are Baseball Cards Destined to Slowly Diminish in Value?

[Jcfowler6]

My kids love baseball. I have lived in several states in this great union. I have seen towns that have 14 fields and so many people that want to play they don't have room for it.

I think we will see a steady increase in interest in this hobby. Everything is a mindset. If we say "the economy sucks" then the economy sucks but if we keep positive then things are good. We watch too much of those 24 hours news channels.

I think if the kids aren't playing pick up games then we should encourage them to do it. My kids beg me do take them to the park and play baseball all the time.

This is a hobby that tells a story. That's the part we must always remember. Teach this to everyone that will listen. Heck my wife couldn't tell you who Ty Cobb is but if she knows all about the Merkle Boner cause she liked the story when I told it to her.

The new card hobby isn't the same as what it was in the past. But in ways it is better. We have graded cards, we have blogs, we have ebay, and now some of us have money of our own to by what we want. Find the good things to focus on and not so much the negative.

Just my two cents.

Jon

[Bilko G]

Originally Posted by Jcfowler6

My kids love baseball. I have lived in several states in this great union. I have seen towns that have 14 fields and so many people that want to play they don't have room for it.

I think we will see a steady increase in interest in this hobby. Everything is a mindset. If we say "the economy sucks" then the economy sucks but if we keep positive then things are good. We watch too much of those 24 hours news channels.

I think if the kids aren't playing pick up games then we should encourage them to do it. My kids beg me do take them to the park and play baseball all the time.

This is a hobby that tells a story. That's the part we must always remember. Teach this to everyone that will listen. Heck my wife couldn't tell you who Ty Cobb is but if she knows all about the Merkle Boner cause she liked the story when I told it to her.

The new card hobby isn't the same as what it was in the past. But in ways it is better. We have graded cards, we have blogs, we have ebay, and now some of us have money of our own to by what we want. Find the good things to focus on and not so much the negative.

Just my two cents.

Jon

Great Post!!!!

[Rich Klein]

But one of the most important aspects of this discussion has already been brought up -- which is the cost of the new products for anyone to enter.

Let's face it, when most of us were young, the average cost to enter by buying packs was at the most 50 cents. Now, the only inexpsnive way to enter is through packs at a place such as target or walmart.

I'll do more later -- but this is a big 1st stop into this whole isue

Rich

[Exhibitman]

I agree, Rich. Another related issue is the extreme difference between worthless base sets and extremely valuable chase cards. The chase has always been a factor busting a pack--I can recall the thrill of finding a Hank Aaron instead of a Hank Allen in a new pack--but it has become so much more extreme over the years. Now, you open a pack of [expensive] cards, pull the chase cards, and throw away the base cards. For example, at the Baltimore National I busted a box of cards, pulled one chase card that I was able to flip to a dealer for the cost of the box, and walked away with a stack of worthless base cards. When we were kids and Topps was the only game in town, everyone collected the set. Even a double of a common card had its use as a trader. IMO the downfall of the modern card market was the creation of the factory set and the rise of the extreme insert card. Set buyers need not work a set and pack busters received items with no use or value that they toss aside [I think we've all seen pack busters at open tables at shows leave the base cards with the empty box and wrappers and walk away; I know I have seen that].

[abothebear]

I agree about the factory sets. There is no point or economic advantage to buying packs now except for the chase cards. It is pretty much like buying a scratchers ticket, buying the chance and what is left is garbage. I was thinking the other day how easy it would be for Topps to not produce and sell the factory set. I am no business man, but I bet there would be a long term gain that would cover whatever short-term loss they'd have from not selling sets.

The only way I pick up cards for my son now is to buy "cast-off" boxes of commons. Packs are too expensive, and he's too young to care about insert cards anyway. And I can sometimes get a lot of jersey cards from ebay and make him a grab bag with an insert anyway.

We have collected rare high-grade baseball type cards and significant
memorabilia (excluding autographs,balls and equipment) for more than three decades.

In the past 5 years,75% of our significant transactions ($1500+) have emanated from one of the top twelve baseball and sports auction firms.

On average we bid on 100-150 items per year. From 2007-2009 our winning
percentage hovered between 15% and 25%. Over the past 18 months, it has risen to nearly 40%.

We attribute this to five factors

(1) Five major collectors who have left the hobby or passed away
(2) Highly priced items tend to bring out 2nd, 3rd and 4th examples
quickly and prices drop accordingly
(3) A weak economy
(4) A number of sets and items have gone out of fashion
(5) concerns about integrity in the hobby.

Within our sphere of collecting, we believe that overall prices on many items have dropped by 15-20%. We believe the hobby still has a great future, but as prices rise, it will require sophisticated (and often wealthy) collectors to maintain or increase the price levels of many of the better items.

Over the past two years, the notable exceptions to the price drop have been

T205 PSA 8 or SGC 88
Ramly PSA 7 and PSA 8
E-96- SCG 84/PSA7 and SCG 88 and PSA 8
E-97- SCG-84/PSA 7 and SCG 88 and PSA 8
Wilson Wieners 1954- PSA 8 (NQ)

Would welcome your comments.


Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List

[barrysloate]

Hi Bruce- good post, and welcome back!