Market for Pre War Cards -How far down is down?

[glchen]

I think I agree with the many comments that it is the economy that is the main factor in driving the prices down. The question would be whether the downturn just popped the bubble down to more realistic prices or whether the cards are now undervalued. I'm sure it depends on each type of card as there are micro-economies at play.

I also think that the economy has decreased the # of bidders which is a big part of it. For example, someone mentioned the high prices the Worch Cigar cards have gotten recently. Frankly, for the recent sale on ebay, I was the #2 bidder on many of those cards, so I'm almost of the opinion if I hadn't bid, those cards might have gone for much lower prices. I bid on every card and ended up winning 3 of them at that time, and I noticed that I was usually constantly outbid by just 1 other bidder, and that bidder won most of the lots. So myself and this other bidder drove up the prices for these cards. And yesterday, I wanted to bid on a 1933 Willard Chocolate common on ebay, but I ended up not getting back home until the auction was over (I tend not to do snipes). The card ended up selling for $7, and I would have paid ~$25 for it, so I'm still kicking myself. These are just examples in my case, but I'm sure others have seen similar situations for cards that they collect.

There was a recent article on NYTimes saying that this downturn has different effects. Basically, if you still have a job, some people are still getting decent raises. So there are a number of people that still have a good deal of discretionary income through their wages or from the wealth that they've built up in the past. These people can still afford to pay top dollar for cards and can scoop up a lot of cards at good prices. However, other people who have lost their jobs or don't have a lot of job security, don't have money to buy cards anymore so they're sidelined right now. Or they're selling their cards even at losses because they need to pay for their day to day living. This also depresses the card market.

Another thing about the market is that like real estate, there are always speculators. Like the Strasburg card, there are people looking to make a quick buck on cards. They were there buying cards in the past, and this was a factor in driving up prices. Again, I think the downturn has gotten rid of many of them (but not all).

Finally, and I'm relatively new here, I wonder if cards have still withstood the recession better than other collectibles. For example, in the latest Legendary auction, I saw lots for comic books, coins, currencies, etc. I'm not sure if this was typical in the past for other collectibles to be a part of sports cards auctions, but I wonder if the interest in cards is still relatively strong compared to other hobbies where auctioneers are trying to piggyback them in the same auction to give them better prices than they would otherwise receive.