Market for Pre War Cards -How far down is down?

[nolemmings]

I would agree that more than anything else, it is the economy. As for the statement:

Obama doesn't know which end is up.

, I would ask that you keep your political opinions to yourself, or expect to be challenged. Unless you are prepared to debate economics. I might suggest that you kick back on your couch tuned into FOX news, wring your hands with the obligatory "the sky is falling" chant, phone or e-mail some other "real Americans" and "patriots", and find someone new to hate.

[Tim Kindler]

Todd,
I think we would all agree that the economy ceratinly has alot to do with many of the issues being discussed in this thread. Who's fault for these things occurring could also be debated. Unfortunately there are MANY, MANY factors why the global and US economies are down. I agree that the statement made about President Obama (Yes, I did call him President Obama, because even if I didn't vote for him, I still respect him and the office of the Presidency) by shaunsteig was not neccessary because again this board should be about our hobby, but I also have to take issue with the fact that since you challenged someone on thier issue, then I have to challenge you on the fact that I watch Fox news and hope you can find someone new to hate.

Todd, That last sentence sounded kinda childish didn't it. What I should have said was that I watch Fox news and take offense to people stereotyping me because I watch that channel, just as someone from the other side of the political table should be offended if someone spoke unkindly of them because they watched ABC or CNN. The bottom line is that we are all Americans who are free to agree and disagree with each other in our feelings and debates on issues suchas President Obama, President Bush, or whomever might be running the country, but let's keep our threads focussed on Baseball and Baseball Cards. I apologize for getting off topic and hope that Todd, myself, and everyone else continues to enjoy collecting and worry about politics somewhere else.

[Griffins]

well said Todd.

[Al C.risafulli]

In a prewar set that i watch very closely, an example of a card in the NM-MT grade just sold for about 40% of what i expected, considerably off the high watermark for cards of equivalent caliber from that set.

At the same time, another HOFer from the same set in VG-EX sold for right about what it should have, at a price level its been at for the last three or four years.

Which is my long winded way of saying that i don't think you can make blanket statements about whats going on with pricing, because i don't think blanket statements apply. The higher-grade HOFer mentioned above is one that i need for my collection, but my current economic situation dictated that i sit out the auction. Had i jumped in, perhaps the price would have landed right where it should have. Theres no way to know.

It all depends on who is buying and what they're doing right now. Perhaps this is why t207s might not be soft, while cards from another set might be.

Al

[Jacklitsch]

Originally Posted by Griffins

well said Todd.

+1

[Cat]

Originally Posted by nolemmings

I would agree that more than anything else, it is the economy. As for the statement: , I would ask that you keep your political opinions to yourself, or expect to be challenged. Unless you are prepared to debate economics. I might suggest that you kick back on your couch tuned into FOX news, wring your hands with the obligatory "the sky is falling" chant, phone or e-mail some other "real Americans" and "patriots", and find someone new to hate.

You want others to keep their political opinions to themselves and then imply that anyone who may disagree this President's economic policy is not a "real american" or "patriotic." That's BS.

[slidekellyslide]

Stay on track fellas. Keep the political talk out of this please.

[nolemmings]

On the contrary Cat, you will not find me implying that you or anyone else is not a real American or a patriot, whatever your political views. You will scarcely find such rhetoric uttered from the left. You will find it, however, repeatedly gargled from the right, especially the Palin and tea party followers who don't miss an opportunity to invoke their "real american values" and preach to the rest of us what must be done to prevent this country from becoming communist, nazi, and/or whatever vile name of the week gains popularity.

[nolemmings]

Sorry Bruce to have spun off topic. Cards that are bucking the downward pricing trend seem to include some sets in which I have an interest, namely the m1014s, m1015s, and Worch Cigars. T202s certainly have dropped, as have t201s. Rare types seem to stay steady in all grades, in my view, although you seem to disagree and I can't say I've charted it with any accuracy.

This subject was discussed not that long ago, as I recall. One theory is that some of the more mainstream sets have been completed by collectors, who then move to other things. Types from these sets, even high grade, are not difficult to find, so some may be waiting until their overall finances are more favorable to buy what will likely still be there.

[Cat]

Originally Posted by nolemmings

On the contrary Cat, you will not find me implying that you or anyone else is not a real American or a patriot, whatever your political views. You will scarcely find such rhetoric uttered from the left. You will find it, however, repeatedly gargled from the right, especially the Palin and tea party followers who don't miss an opportunity to invoke their "real american values" and preach to the rest of us what must be done to prevent this country from becoming communist, nazi, and/or whatever vile name of the week gains popularity.

You do know that Carville's poll indicated 55% of likely voters think that "Socialist" was an accurate way to describe our President right? Fifty-five percent is a lot more than just "The Right." There are a lot of moderates/independents and some democrats to get to that number.

Before Leon takes me to the woodshed, I will declare that my last political post.

[botn]

I don't think the FBI's "presence" is having an adverse impact on the market--one could argue that it should have a positive impact, if anything, as it at the very least gives the perception that someone is looking out for those who buy sports cards.

I do not track the super high grade (post war 9s and 10s) or low population post war cards but watch most other aspects of the market and agree with Bruce's research. Prices are down across the board, some areas have been harder hit than others, simply from a lack of credit, lack of liquidity, lack of confidence in an economic recovery and the basic realization that what most of us were worth in 2008 is not what we are worth now.

Pricing is somewhat unpredictable at this time due to limited resources. There are fewer people willing or able to be significant under bidders at this time. So while the winners of these cards maybe willing to spend more, there are not enough real bidders underneath them to drive up the prices. Most people are being much more cautious.

I see much of the same continuing through 2011 and just hoping it does not get much worse. Unlike the US stock market, the card market is accurately reflecting the economic landscape.

[benjulmag]

Bruce asked an interesting question, one that I asked a prominent dealer who has been in the hobby for over 30 years. That person told me that in his opinion, the current market is the softest he's seen it since the early 80s (though to put that in perspective, even in this soft market cards values are exponentially higher than they were then). He believes the main reason for it is that the whales, who were largely responsible for driving the prices though the roof to complete/upgrade their registry sets, are for the most part out of the market now. And they have not been replaced by the next generation of whales. He does not believe the current FBI investigations are a major factor.

I think that what this dealer says is certainly a credible explanation for the soft market. But I also think another big reason is the sorry state of the economy. I'm in commercial real estate and business is the worst I can remember since the recession of the early 80s. People I know in other fields report similarly dismal activity, some shockingly below previous years.

Like all business cycles, in time we will come out of this one. Though given its depth, I believe it will take a lot longer than any previous downturn since the Great Depression. But as to baseball cards, even when the economy strengthens, it is unclear how robust the rebound will be, even if a new generation of whales enters the hobby. Part of my caution is that I do believe the current FBI investigations could have a major impact, especially if there are indictments and some major players are criminally convicted. I believe a significant reason card prices got as high as they did was because of fraudulent activity - shilling (which includes the act of suggesting to investor clients that they bid on certain lots the auctioneer knows another collector will bid very high on) and the reporting of "sales" that never took place. I believe part of the reason some recent high profile auctions did not do nearly as well as in the past, as measured by price realized per lot (as opposed to overall auction gross), is because of the auction houses' concerns that too many investigative eyes might be watching, and therefore this might be a good time to start running a clean(er) auction.

[barrysloate]

No question prices are way down across the board, despite the fact that some key rare cards are still performing well. There are a number of factors for this. The biggest of course is the terrible state of our economy. Not much you can do about that. Also, as cited by Corey, many of the whales are now selling their collections, and that has a huge impact on prices from top to bottom.

Also, don't underestimate that the baby boomers are getting older, and are now realizing that they don't have enough money for retirement. I heard a statistic on the radio recently, don't know where it came from but I will share it. According to a survey, 46% of baby boomers will run out of money in their lifetime. Have no idea if it's true, but if it is that is one of the scariest things I've ever heard.

Finally, this hobby has matured. It's not the "New" hobby of the 80's that was getting all this media attention and bringing in new collectors by droves. If anything, the media regards the hobby as infested with fraud, so it's not bringing in as many new collectors.

I think we have a confluence of many things happening at once. But if I had to pick the most important one, I would go with the bad economy.

[calvindog]

Corey, I agree. Fake prices are still rolling in and shill bidding is still going on, all impacting pricing. The crooks in our hobby don't even care that the FBI is watching half the time. It will take incarceration in a cell with no internet access for some of the fraudsters to stop.

[jb217676]

Why did this thread have to get political? And also, all us members here aren't American. Let's keep all these discussions to cardboard for a hoser like myself from Canada eh!

[vintagechris]

One reason I believe card prices are down is the fact it is getting harder to sell cards at a profit on ebay. I think in 2008 people would pay more for cards because they still felt like they could flip them for profit.

With ebays higher fees, I believe more and more people are buying less because they can't flip for profit.

Ebays fees also force many sellers to list items at higher fixed prices. Prices that may be higher than market value. This then causes people to not shop as much.

Used to be people would go on ebay everyday and look at the auctions. I think less people do that now because there are fewer and fewer auctions.

I don't think this is the sole reason for lower prices, but I do strongly believe it has something to do with it.

Especially with higher dollar cards on ebay. Very hard to flip those for a profit.

I am enjoying the dip actually so I can get some stuff I want at discounts.