Market for Pre War Cards -How far down is down?

Ladder7 · #1 08-23-2010, 07:49 AM

Kids (and adults) have so many entertainment options today. The money is there, just misdirected. If we displayed our items and didn't lock 'em away, I believe it'd serve us in a couple of ways.

I've displayed some stuff several times and the interest was highly positive. I'm planning on setting up another display at the community ctr around Playoff time. It's only takes a couple of hours, but goes a long way.

I was at work last year and a LL game was going on in the field behind the station. One of the coaches is a good friend, so I asked him to see if the kids would like to see some old cards after the game. A few did, and were awestruck by my low-end collection. Sadly, only one LL'r collected cards -because his dad was active in it.

We should be ambassadors, not reclusive. Crack your safes once in a while, it could pay dividends. And they couldn't care if a Cobb is Poor or Mint. You can see it in their smiles, like magic, people soak this stuff up. They're just rarely exposed to it.

insidethewrapper · #2 08-23-2010, 08:14 AM

As always : demand vs supply. The next generation just will not demand the way the "baby boomers" did. We grew up in the 50's and 60's and baseball was all that mattered to most of us. It only matters to a few of the kids now. Just check and see if you see any kids playing ball in your neighborhood. My kids ( now in there 20's) did not collect cards. There will always be enough demand for the low supply cards, but the regular produced cards etc will continue to fill auction catalogs as guys like me entering age 60 range get rid of their collections because no one in the family wants it .
When the "baby boomers" are all dead in 20-30 years, I predict the cards will be at all time lows.

#3 08-23-2010, 08:21 AM

We appreciate everyone's thoughtful response.

And we especially appreciate the fine effort to stop this thread from turning into political debate. It would be great if the people in office stopped the politics and remembered that their job was to serve the people who elected them (regardless of party) and not to spend 50% of their time attempting to get reelected or bashing the other side. From our perspective it is like watching a war where all the generals spend their time trying to gain influence with C&C and stop focusing on the enemy.

Back to Prices

Corey and Barry brought up a wide range of issues. We agree with them. What surprises us is that "last minute - last half-hour rush" has not happened. Of the last ten cards we won in major auctions- our winning bid was placed one or two days before the auction closed, in all but one case.

As for the thinness of the market, Lew Lipset was correct then and in many, many cases correct today. There are probably only 10 collectors who would pay a strong price for a rare but relatively obscure piece of memorabilia or a high grade (non HOF) type card. There were number of items in the Heritage and Legendary auctions which are truly rare but sold at surprisingly low levels- i.e. the unopened Darby Chocolate box.

In fact the best advice we ever received was from Billy Mastro in 1981 when we had lost every card in a sale that he and Don Steinbach were running. Bill said...." Don't worry Bruce- remember it is only a piece of old cardboard."

Regardless of short time price variations, we have had a 35 year love affair with the hobby. and we never forget our vows- for better or for worse for richer or for poorer. While values will change our love for great memorabilia will be with us as long as we live.

Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List
bdorskind@dorskindgroup.com

thekingofclout · #4 08-23-2010, 09:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yankeefan51

Regardless of short time price variations, we have had a 35 year love affair with the hobby. and we never forget our vows- for better or for worse for richer or for poorer. While values will change our love for great memorabilia will be with us as long as we live.

Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List
bdorskind@dorskindgroup.com

That's a terrific quote Bruce!

Jim VB · #5 08-23-2010, 09:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thekingofclout

That's a terrific quote Bruce!

Yes, it is. And he has expressed similar sentiments before.

http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/ite...-card-col.html

ChiefBenderForever · #6 08-23-2010, 10:22 AM

I think a lot of it is just an economic correction, along with inflation. The whole 'it just takes one extra bidder' is also a factor that can be the difference of hundreds or thousands of dollars on an item. A lot of it is just luck and timing as well. The T207's that just sold really well could cause someone to think it is a good time to sell them and maybe list them in a week or month and only see half the prices just realized, there is no real explanation. Sales are still strong even though considered soft it is a lot of money being spent no matter how you look at it.

Exhibitman · #7 08-23-2010, 01:11 PM

The market remains as it has been for much of the last two years. Great stuff brings great prices. Run of the mill stuff goes cheap. Weak stuff rots. I also find that pricing is unstable--things that sell well one week sell for peanuts the next. I'd say we've "lost" the last 5-10 years of appreciation on most cards.

On the plus side, look at the great stuff that's coming to market as some have been forced to start digging deep to part with rarities they'd accumulated. I've seen more really difficult types this year than any in the last several. I'd say in terms of sheer variety of cards available this was the best National I've seen since I started going every year (2004).

glchen · #8 08-23-2010, 02:41 PM

I think I agree with the many comments that it is the economy that is the main factor in driving the prices down. The question would be whether the downturn just popped the bubble down to more realistic prices or whether the cards are now undervalued. I'm sure it depends on each type of card as there are micro-economies at play.

I also think that the economy has decreased the # of bidders which is a big part of it. For example, someone mentioned the high prices the Worch Cigar cards have gotten recently. Frankly, for the recent sale on ebay, I was the #2 bidder on many of those cards, so I'm almost of the opinion if I hadn't bid, those cards might have gone for much lower prices. I bid on every card and ended up winning 3 of them at that time, and I noticed that I was usually constantly outbid by just 1 other bidder, and that bidder won most of the lots. So myself and this other bidder drove up the prices for these cards. And yesterday, I wanted to bid on a 1933 Willard Chocolate common on ebay, but I ended up not getting back home until the auction was over (I tend not to do snipes). The card ended up selling for $7, and I would have paid ~$25 for it, so I'm still kicking myself. These are just examples in my case, but I'm sure others have seen similar situations for cards that they collect.

There was a recent article on NYTimes saying that this downturn has different effects. Basically, if you still have a job, some people are still getting decent raises. So there are a number of people that still have a good deal of discretionary income through their wages or from the wealth that they've built up in the past. These people can still afford to pay top dollar for cards and can scoop up a lot of cards at good prices. However, other people who have lost their jobs or don't have a lot of job security, don't have money to buy cards anymore so they're sidelined right now. Or they're selling their cards even at losses because they need to pay for their day to day living. This also depresses the card market.

Another thing about the market is that like real estate, there are always speculators. Like the Strasburg card, there are people looking to make a quick buck on cards. They were there buying cards in the past, and this was a factor in driving up prices. Again, I think the downturn has gotten rid of many of them (but not all).

Finally, and I'm relatively new here, I wonder if cards have still withstood the recession better than other collectibles. For example, in the latest Legendary auction, I saw lots for comic books, coins, currencies, etc. I'm not sure if this was typical in the past for other collectibles to be a part of sports cards auctions, but I wonder if the interest in cards is still relatively strong compared to other hobbies where auctioneers are trying to piggyback them in the same auction to give them better prices than they would otherwise receive.

Jim VB · #9 08-23-2010, 02:47 PM

Bruce,

Please don't bother sending me any PMs. I delete them without reading them.

iggyman · #10 08-23-2010, 08:36 AM

The card market is soft right now, no denying that. For the variety of reasons discussed so far and in the past (economy, FBI, eBay fees, end of summer vacations, too many auction houses, etc...), collectors, flippers, & whales are holding back and I believe that is impacting prices. However, if you approach the current market with a five to ten year horizon, then it is a fantastic time to be a buyer. That is the approach I'm taking right now and I strongly believe I will do just fine. I've never bought into the theory that once all the baby boomers retire prewar card prices will plummet. As long as baseball is thriving and the population in the U.S. is growing, new collectors will take the boomers place.

Lovely Day...

#11 08-23-2010, 08:41 AM

We appreciate everyone's thoughtful response.

And we especially appreciate the fine effort to stop this thread from turning into political debate. It would be great if the people in office stopped the politics and remembered that their job was to serve the people who elected them (regardless of party) and not to spend 50% of their time attempting to get reelected or bashing the other side. From our perspective it is like watching a war where all the generals spend their time trying to gain influence with C&C and stop focusing on the enemy.

Back to Prices

Corey and Barry brought up a wide range of issues. We agree with them. What surprises us is that "last minute - last half-hour rush" has not happened. Of the last ten cards we won in major auctions- our winning bid was placed one or two days before the auction closed, in all but one case.

As for the thinness of the market, Lew Lipset was correct then and in many, many cases correct today. There are probably only 10 collectors who would pay a strong price for a rare but relatively obscure piece of memorabilia or
a high grade (non HOF) type card. There were number of items in the Heritage and Legendary auctions which are truly rare but sold at surprisingly low levels- i.e. the unopened Darby Chocolate box.

In fact the best advice we ever received was from Billy Mastro in 1981 when we had lost every card in a sale that he and Don Steinbach were running. Bill said...." Don't worry Bruce- remember is only a piece of old cardboard."

Regardless of short time price variations, we have had a 35 year love affair with the hobby. and we never forget our vows- for better or for worse for richer or for poorer. While values will change our love for great memorabilia will be with us as long as we live

Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List
bdorskind@dorskindgroup.com

barrysloate · #12 08-23-2010, 09:13 AM

There will always be people collecting baseball cards and memorabilia, that's a constant. But it is certainly possible that the economics of collecting will change.

I believe that the generation of collectors who follow the baby boomers will be smaller. The number of people who came into the hobby between say 1980-2005 was unprecedented. It became a national phenomenon. But I don't think you will see that in the future. The number of people collecting will not be what it is today, and we are not likely to see the crazy runaway prices we've seen in the past. It's certainly possible it will be a healthy hobby, and that there will be well-heeled collectors ready to sink some money into it.

But I don't think it will be anything like what we've experienced in our generation. Things change, that's just a fact.

Bicem · #13 08-23-2010, 10:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by barrysloate

I believe that the generation of collectors who follow the baby boomers will be smaller. The number of people who came into the hobby between say 1980-2005 was unprecedented. It became a national phenomenon. But I don't think you will see that in the future. The number of people collecting will not be what it is today, and we are not likely to see the crazy runaway prices we've seen in the past. It's certainly possible it will be a healthy hobby, and that there will be well-heeled collectors ready to sink some money into it.

But I don't think it will be anything like what we've experienced in our generation. Things change, that's just a fact.

agreed 100%

Mark · #14 08-23-2010, 10:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by barrysloate

There will always be people collecting baseball cards and memorabilia, that's a constant. But it is certainly possible that the economics of collecting will change.

I believe that the generation of collectors who follow the baby boomers will be smaller. The number of people who came into the hobby between say 1980-2005 was unprecedented. It became a national phenomenon. But I don't think you will see that in the future. The number of people collecting will not be what it is today, and we are not likely to see the crazy runaway prices we've seen in the past. It's certainly possible it will be a healthy hobby, and that there will be well-heeled collectors ready to sink some money into it.

But I don't think it will be anything like what we've experienced in our generation. Things change, that's just a fact.

I agree that things have changed. Thanks to the last 25 years the hobby has a status that it didn't have before. And if it is a fact that things change, then they will keep changing. Interest in the hobby may peter out or the country's ever-expanding population could be caught up in a new wave of interest in vintage baseball. But I still think that in any event the small number of cards that exist for most vintage sets will make them hard to find and will prevent prices from falling through the floor (Does anyone have a Hereclitus card for sale or trade?)

barrysloate · #15 08-23-2010, 10:44 AM

Nobody has mentioned this yet (unless I missed it) but let me pose another take on the hobby economy: I think the market we had in roughly 2005-07 was a bubble, and that bubble has now burst. Not everybody may agree with this assessment but it had several markings of a bubble: prices that were increasing at an incredible rate and the notion that they had nowhere to go but up were two factors that support this theory.

Did anyone else get that feeling, or is it just me?

vintagetoppsguy · #16 08-23-2010, 11:57 AM

Just want to comment on a few different things I have read in this thread.

Yes, the hobby needs more collectors. More collectors = higher prices. Like it was mentioned, all it takes is one other bidder to drive up the price of a given auction.

True, there was a large influx of people that came into the hobby from 1980-2005. However, the majority of those weren�t true collectors - they were people looking for a quick buck or thinking their baseball cards was going to fund their kid�s college tuition, their retirement, etc.

I don�t think people�s discretionary income is lower than it used to be. My discretionary income is still the same. Nowadays I just choose to save more money than I used to and spend less. It�s a personal choice, not a matter of having less to spend. That will change as the economy changes.

rdixon1208 · #17 08-23-2010, 12:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

I don�t think people�s discretionary income is lower than it used to be. My discretionary income is still the same. Nowadays I just choose to save more money than I used to and spend less. It�s a personal choice, not a matter of having less to spend. That will change as the economy changes.

David,

People's discretionary income is way down. For those of us in south Texas is seems like the economy isn't too bad, and it isn't here, but we're the lucky ones. Much of the country is hurting. Families that depend on two incomes are down to one, people are being forced to take pay cuts to keep their jobs, and in some cases people are depending 100% on government benefits to survive. I got a nice raise this year, but I'm sending a good bit of it to my wife's family in Illinois. Some of them have moved here for work.
In my opinion this is the most significant reason that prices are dropping.

Exhibitman · #18 08-23-2010, 01:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Nobody has mentioned this yet (unless I missed it) but let me pose another take on the hobby economy: I think the market we had in roughly 2005-07 was a bubble, and that bubble has now burst. Not everybody may agree with this assessment but it had several markings of a bubble: prices that were increasing at an incredible rate and the notion that they had nowhere to go but up were two factors that support this theory.

Did anyone else get that feeling, or is it just me?

I agree to some extent. Certain issues (E cards come to mine) got hotter'n'hell for a while and everyone starting grabbing every example, even if they didn't like the cards much, just to be in position to flip them. That was definitely a bubble.

nebboy · #19 08-24-2010, 11:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Nobody has mentioned this yet (unless I missed it) but let me pose another take on the hobby economy: I think the market we had in roughly 2005-07 was a bubble, and that bubble has now burst. Not everybody may agree with this assessment but it had several markings of a bubble: prices that were increasing at an incredible rate and the notion that they had nowhere to go but up were two factors that support this theory.

Did anyone else get that feeling, or is it just me?

Oh I do agree that there has been a bubble poping for a few years, the only thing that does'nt come down is the expection that their cards price should be that same as it was at its highest. Going back to what a card sold at in a major auction house 2-5 or more yars ago and thinking that should be what mine is worth (or thats what I want for it). Never seems to change. The price guilds support this every month with the numbers they qoute.

Bosox Blair · #20 08-24-2010, 04:42 PM

I'm not sure I can agree with the original premise. I subscribe to VCP and follow the pricing on certain items with interest.

Most recently, pretty much everything I've tracked on Ebay sold at a price not far off the pre-crash 2008 levels, according to VCP data. Not just the T207s everyone mentions, but a grouping of T206s last night on Ebay with common backs in PSA 5-6. I monitored a few of the HOFers and a couple other notables and all of them sold at prices consistent with early 2008 sales.

For the last several months, each time I try to score a "deal" on a pre-war card on Ebay, I get seriously outbid.

Now I agree that when I first got VCP, I was shocked at how far prices had come down in late 2008 to early 2009 when compared to the prior couple years. But I believe that was the low point. A lot of what I look at appears to have rebounded more recently.

Put it this way - I'm a buyer and not a seller. I consider 2009 to have been a banner year for me adding to my collection for prices I was really happy about. As for 2010...definitely not so much.

Cheers,
Blair

ErikV · #21 08-23-2010, 12:46 PM

Just read this in the Wall Street Journal this morning.

How have you redefined luxuries and necessities in the past two years?
http://on.wsj.com/bYaTmI

One of the most impressionable comments that was left is as
pertinent to this conversation as any that's been brought up yet...

"A luxury now is a weekend getaway near home. Dining out is a luxury.
Having a job is a luxury!"

For those of us who on the board that are out of work, baseball card
collecting is probably the furthest thing down on our priority list.....

ErikV

mark evans · #22 08-23-2010, 05:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by barrysloate

There will always be people collecting baseball cards and memorabilia, that's a constant. But it is certainly possible that the economics of collecting will change.

I believe that the generation of collectors who follow the baby boomers will be smaller. The number of people who came into the hobby between say 1980-2005 was unprecedented. It became a national phenomenon. But I don't think you will see that in the future. The number of people collecting will not be what it is today, and we are not likely to see the crazy runaway prices we've seen in the past. It's certainly possible it will be a healthy hobby, and that there will be well-heeled collectors ready to sink some money into it.

But I don't think it will be anything like what we've experienced in our generation. Things change, that's just a fact.

I agree with Barry. While the economy may largely explain any current downtrend, I think the long-term prognosis for vintage cards needs to take into account that demand will likely drop off once we baby boomers move on, so to speak.

rdixon1208 · #23 08-23-2010, 06:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mark evans

I agree with Barry. While the economy may largely explain any current downtrend, I think the long-term prognosis for vintage cards needs to take into account that demand will likely drop off once we baby boomers move on, so to speak.

While there is no doubt some truth here, there also seems to be a large group my age (30) that are coming into pre-war now. We all have the same story. There was a card shop in our town. We collected cards, and so did all of our friends. We longed for the '89 UD Griffey. Then we got out of cards as teenagers and young adults. Now we have jobs and we want to get back in. The cards we have at our moms' house are worthless, and we want to make sure that whatever we spend our money on now won't be trash in a few years. This naturally leads to vintage and/or pre-war. Think about it...how many of the recent "New to the board" threads are from guys just like me. There was a thread a few months ago that said something like "Who will buy our cards twenty years from now?" My favorite answer....."I Will"

Matt · #24 08-23-2010, 06:23 PM

I think card values are and will be fine. At any time, in a healthy market, there will be things that perform well and things that perform poorly, which is where we are now with cards. True a few years ago there was growth across the board on almost all pre-war issues, but that has settled out now to leave us a healthy situation.

smtjoy · #25 08-23-2010, 08:08 PM

I think what Barry said is right on the money. I think everyone got the feeling that pre war and some high grade post war card prices were going to continue to go up and poured money in to get a piece of the action. I remember auction results 3-4 years ago and nearly every lot was a new all time high. This year it seems like you see a few items getting great numbers but the rest is off. 4 years ago I was lucky to win anything at the auctions, this year I have had to hold back recently as I have won cards in 9 auctions and the budget is busting and I have the same budget as I did then.

That also makes me wonder how much of that was shilling and other funky stuff. I find it interesting that a few auction houses are no longer reporting their results to VCP, I get the feeling they dont want to advertise the lower prices they are bringing in or they are worried about shilling/FBI and leaving a price trail that people like Jeff can use as an example of "how can that price be good when the same card has sold 6 times this year for 20% of that price each time" and those result do really make me wonder and im sure many others do. Are the auction houses partly to blame for a bubble, I know things like shilling, extending crazy amounts of credits to buyers so they can flip on ebay then pay for their winnings have had an adverse effect on true values.

I mainly collect exhibits and I can say that most of the common cards have been selling very soft (off 20-40%) but as soon as a tough card like (26-29 plain backgound, 31-32, 33's) go for sale they get big numbers. I also collect Clemente cards and his Topps cards in 8 or 9 are all down as well as many of his common stuff but when you see his Plak selling for major money and some of his much harder stuff goes big it makes you think scarcity is playing a huge part too.

T206Collector · #26 08-24-2010, 09:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rdixon1208

While there is no doubt some truth here, there also seems to be a large group my age (30) that are coming into pre-war now. We all have the same story. There was a card shop in our town. We collected cards, and so did all of our friends. We longed for the '89 UD Griffey. Then we got out of cards as teenagers and young adults. Now we have jobs and we want to get back in. The cards we have at our moms' house are worthless, and we want to make sure that whatever we spend our money on now won't be trash in a few years. This naturally leads to vintage and/or pre-war. Think about it...how many of the recent "New to the board" threads are from guys just like me. There was a thread a few months ago that said something like "Who will buy our cards twenty years from now?" My favorite answer....."I Will"

This post is spot on. And the first step into pre-war will likely be 1933 Goudey or T206. The abundance of both sets mirrors the abundance of modern cards, so you can get your quick fix on ebay every day if you like. But 33 Goudey and T206 provide more stability and long term enjoyment than the shiny stuff. I definitely see both sets as a natural progression for the shiny collectors burned by the drop in value and enthusiasm for modern cards.

The biggest issue will be if people just stop collecting cards generally -- as a society. I suspect that the overwhelming paradigm shift into an all digital era will actually create more collectors -- even if they cannot recall when media was transmitted on paper.

Orioles1954 · #27 08-24-2010, 09:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by T206Collector

This post is spot on. And the first step into pre-war will likely be 1933 Goudey or T206. The abundance of both sets mirrors the abundance of modern cards, so you can get your quick fix on ebay every day if you like. But 33 Goudey and T206 provide more stability and long term enjoyment than the shiny stuff. I definitely see both sets as a natural progression for the shiny collectors burned by the drop in value and enthusiasm for modern cards.

The biggest issue will be if people just stop collecting cards generally -- as a society. I suspect that the overwhelming paradigm shift into an all digital era will actually create more collectors -- even if they cannot recall when media was transmitted on paper.

I also agree with the previous posts. While pre-war collectors tend to scoff and mock the shiny cards, I find that the vast majority of modern card hobbyists are very appreciative of T206 and Goudey. The "digital age" has left many like me (I'm 34) longing for that simpler time. I love tanglible things that I can hold and appreciate like records, books with covers and baseball cards.

eb548 · #28 08-23-2010, 09:15 AM

While some trends might point towards downward movement in the pricing curve, i argue that this trend is typical to any (non-recession proof) hobby. Nonetheless, this is ABSOLUTELY NOT the case hobby-wide. "MArket Softening" which was mentioned in the initial post by Bruce is relative. Look at t206s, t206 rare backs, tougher t207's, high grade hall of famers in the more "popular and widely traded sets", cracker jacks etc. Those who probably focus/collect these sets and types most probably do not feel a significant softening, if any. The hobby is like any other hobby in the world..supply and demand. Clearly the supply of people willing to part with their cash towards purchase of collectibles is lower in our current economic state. However the hobby is also changing in that the demand is shifting towards more popular sets and popular players.

If you were spending $XXXX amount of money a year on cards 2-3 yrs ago in a perceived never ending upward trend in the hobby, you had more monetary ability to purchase different types of cards and different players with confidence that your money was safely invested and you were buying with good value. If that budget was cut in half to today, this new dollar amount would cause you to prioritize, purchase less, and focus on "safer" purchases with better investment potential (causing many collectors to shift demand to t206's, hofers, etc keeping the market for them relatively stable (and what i forecast as stable for years to come!). As for a an e102 common in a 3..thats the market that gets hit the most. The common card in an abscure and not very popular set is going to get hit the hardest.

Look at t206 rare backs, goodwin champions, high grade hall of famers in ket sets in the hobby, and the most popular cards in our hobby. I see strength!!

36GoudeyMan · #29 08-23-2010, 09:26 AM

...and politics aside, I've been following a few 30s and 40s sets, and have seen prices for 6s, 7s and 8s at ridiculously low levels. Compared to VCP's historic review, prices of common, big-set cards in PSA 7 are down as much as 50%, PSA 8s are down as much as 1/3. I watch auctions end and kick myself for not bidding -- even in sets I do not aggressively collect -- because the final price wound up being so low.

However, you never really know how high the high bidder would have gone, so perhaps with two bidders, the price realized would be more in line with historical prices. And that raises the question posed by some, whether the market is really soft, or whether fewer buyers are chasing cards and not driving prices up as much as they did before everyone got their example of Card X, or the economy pulled them out of the market.

I work in the bankruptcy field, and I will tell you from the front lines that real people's discretionary income is as low as I have ever seen it.

I conclude that the softness in prices is due to fewer collectors (for whatever reason, and there are many) not chasing as many cards and driving up prices competitively. Its supply and demand, and demand is way down.

Will demand go up? I think collectibles are the first to go and last to recover. People will be MUCH more conservative with their investments/discretionary income (pay down your mortgage faster, pay off the tuition bills faster, but don't piss your money away on baseball cards while we're in debt). Collectibles of any type will likely be depressed for 3-5 years, and will only recover when the average collector (and all of this applies to the average collector who really drives the market) can start competing for cards again, and that won't be soon.

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