REA is up!

[barrysloate]

You may be able to cut your list of competitors in half, but there's one problem with that strategy.

The seven guys you knocked out were probably tire kickers looking for a good deal. The seven guys who are left are the whales who will go really high on the lot. So you have accomplished nothing.

If you bid often enough to knock out thirteen bidders, and only one is left, but that one bidder has all the money in the world and won't let that lot go to anybody else, you've still accomplished nothing.

It's generally a strategy that doesn't work. Whoever are left are the guys who are going to make your life miserable. The ones you cut out are irrelevant.

[Bridwell]

Hi Blair and Barry,

I think the 'blocking strategy' Blair mentioned has some merit.

Barry is correct when he says that a 'whale' can overbid anybody in overtime, making the strategy irrelevant. This also holds true of a desperate collector trying to complete a set.

However, many lots in auctions sell to regular collectors, since the whales may already have that card. When that happens, I'd rather compete against only 3-4 other regular collectors in overtime, instead of 10-12 others. The hype of overtime tends to result in overbidding and that's lessened with fewer players. If 2 bidders are using the 'blocking strategy' on the same lot, then there might be only 2 bidders competing in overtime

Ron R

[barrysloate]

The likelihood is you will knock out the bidders who were going to drop out early on their own. Many people bid just to have a bookmark for the overtime portion. I think anyone really serious about a lot will still be in no matter how many times a single person keeps bidding.

My experience as an auctioneer was that the people who continually bid throughout an auction had a poor record of winning lots. In the great majority of situations it was somebody else who won them.

[Bosox Blair]

Hi Barry,

While I certainly can't challenge your experience as an auctioneer, I firmly believe it is valuable to limit the number of competitors against you in overtime. I've seen/experienced this many times - the sand starts to shift in overtime. As people get pushed beyond their limits on their initial goal lots, they feel they have "freed up" bidding cash, and they turn to other lots. I know for a fact this happened to me last REA. I had the high bid on a lot through the end of the auction and through 8+ hours of O/T. The person who won the lot told me they came back to my lot to bid after somone topped them and things got too rich on a more expensive lot they were chasing.

With REA, you can only turn to what you bid on in regular time. So keeping people off your lot in regular time has some value. Of course you can't eliminate competition, but you can reduce competitors.

Yes, I know there are "whales", but in an auction like REA, I believe these guys have quite a few lots to consider. I agree that if one of these guys is bound and determined to have the card you want, then you are in some trouble. But in any other case, I'd like fewer bidders to have the option of turning their focus to a lot I'm interested in during overtime.

Cheers,
Blair

[CW]

Although I could never hope to bid & compete for this card, the most intriguing card
in this auction is the newly discovered Just So Buck Ewing. It's got a great story behind
it, and it should be interesting to see the closing price.

Surprised nobody has mentioned it in this thread, although there might be a reason
for that.

[Bosox Blair]

Originally Posted by Bridwell

Hi Blair and Barry,

I think the 'blocking strategy' Blair mentioned has some merit.

Barry is correct when he says that a 'whale' can overbid anybody in overtime, making the strategy irrelevant. This also holds true of a desperate collector trying to complete a set.

However, many lots in auctions sell to regular collectors, since the whales may already have that card. When that happens, I'd rather compete against only 3-4 other regular collectors in overtime, instead of 10-12 others. The hype of overtime tends to result in overbidding and that's lessened with fewer players. If 2 bidders are using the 'blocking strategy' on the same lot, then there might be only 2 bidders competing in overtime

Ron R

Hi Ron,

Yes - we are on the same page on this!

Cheers,
Blair

[barrysloate]

Blair- anything is possible, and in no way does it hurt to knock bidders out. It never hurts. But I'm still not convinced it helps. If you knock thirteen bidders out and the only bidder left is Bill Gates, I think you still lose. But I agree that there is a lot of shifting around in the wee hours of the morning and only somebody who qualified will be able to jump back to your lot. However, I still think you've only eliminated the bottom feeders and not the real competition. I suppose there is no definitive answer to this.

[Bosox Blair]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

I suppose there is no definitive answer to this.

Hi Barry,

For sure - and I'm not purporting to have any kind of study to support my idea. It is just something I feel intuitively (ie. that I'd rather enter an auction against 7 qualified bidders than against 15). But I definitely see your points...the number of bidders is not as important as: who they are, what finances they have, and what their goals/motivations are in the auction.

Ultimately, I'm aware that two bidders makes an auction, and two motivated bidders can create a record price. But somehow I still feel better with 2 bidders than with 15.

Cheers,
Blair

[barrysloate]

Blair- I'm sure you've experienced this too, but I can't tell you how many times I've been the underbidder on a lot and said to myself, If it just wasn't for that one guy, I could have won that lot at such a good price. And that's the one bidder I'm suggesting you haven't knocked out. Obviously, whether you finish second or fifth, the end result is the same. Maybe we should do a study of bidding patterns and behavior.

[Bosox Blair]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Maybe we should do a study of bidding patterns and behavior.

Hi Barry,

I might be a strange guy (...well, I am ) but I would really find that interesting.

All the best,
Blair