T206: What About Front Scarcity?

[JP]

Originally Posted by tedzan

1st....I personally think that there are approx. 500 each of these two cards (St Louis variations) in circulation. Perhaps,
for unknown reasons, there are a little less than 500 cards of O'Hara. I think you may agree that Demmitt appears more
often than O'Hara.

I have to disagree with almost all of this for several reasons. First of all, population reports prove that O'hara and Demmitt are almost exactly equal. Add all of the graded PSA, SGC, GAI and BVG numbers and they are virtually identical. Maybe someone is hoarding O'hara's, but they are most assuredly not more scarce. The numbers don't lie. Also of note, Memorylane has one of each in their upcoming auction, REA has 3 of each.

Secondly, there are not even 150 of each of these graded according to pop reports. When you consider cracks and resubmits (of which I have done at least twice for both of these cards over the years) maybe only half of those numbers are actual cards in current holders. So maybe 75 individual St. Louis Demmitts and O'haras have been graded. That HAS to represent more than 15% of the ones in existence as this type of card is far more likely to be encapsulated and protected than an ordinary common. I'd guess half of all Demmitts and O'haras are currently encapsulated, so maybe 150 of each exist?


SIDE NOTE: I think Demmitts and O'haras may be far more rare than people give them credit. "Magies" are referred to as one of the big four and are considered ultra-rare, but while 100 Demmitts and 100 O'haras have been graded by PSA, an astounding 84 Magies have also been graded. That card is not that much rarer, apparently.