T206: What About Front Scarcity?

[tedzan]

1st....I personally think that there are approx. 500 each of these two cards (St Louis variations) in circulation. Perhaps,
for unknown reasons, there are a little less than 500 cards of O'Hara. I think you may agree that Demmitt appears more
often than O'Hara.

2nd....It is obvious that there were at least three press runs of POLAR BEAR cards. The first press run must have been in
the Spring/Summer of 1910 and included subjects in the 350-only series....of which the Demmitt & O'Hara were printed in.
From various surveys, it appears that this press run produced the lesser number of POLAR BEAR cards. The 2nd press run
included cards in the 350/460 series. From surveys, it is obvious that the greater number of POLAR BEAR cards were from
the 350/460 series press runs. Subsequent press runs of POLAR BEAR's included cards from the 460-only series.

Therefore, using the Demmitt & O'Hara population as a means of extrapolating the populations of regular T206's, I feel is
very tricky business. That very 1st press run (350 series) of POLAR BEAR's was relatively limited.


TED Z

[tbob]

Tony- I remember reading a booklet about 15 years ago which indicated the relative scarcity of certain poses of some of the players who had multiple cards in the T206 series. The first one which comes to mind is the Mordecai Brown smaller pose throwing which is tougher than the portrait or the larger throwing pose, but there were many others. When I put together the set I noticed that the writer was right on with his observations as some portrait poses seemed much tougher than the fielding or throwing poses and vice-versa. Years later, after reading some of the posts on this board I learned that the scarcity was attributable in many instances to the particular series' in which the cards were released. Not all T206s are created equal
tbob

[barrysloate]

All the "Cubs" across chest poses are tougher than the "Chicago" down shirt poses.

[JP]

Originally Posted by tedzan

1st....I personally think that there are approx. 500 each of these two cards (St Louis variations) in circulation. Perhaps,
for unknown reasons, there are a little less than 500 cards of O'Hara. I think you may agree that Demmitt appears more
often than O'Hara.

I have to disagree with almost all of this for several reasons. First of all, population reports prove that O'hara and Demmitt are almost exactly equal. Add all of the graded PSA, SGC, GAI and BVG numbers and they are virtually identical. Maybe someone is hoarding O'hara's, but they are most assuredly not more scarce. The numbers don't lie. Also of note, Memorylane has one of each in their upcoming auction, REA has 3 of each.

Secondly, there are not even 150 of each of these graded according to pop reports. When you consider cracks and resubmits (of which I have done at least twice for both of these cards over the years) maybe only half of those numbers are actual cards in current holders. So maybe 75 individual St. Louis Demmitts and O'haras have been graded. That HAS to represent more than 15% of the ones in existence as this type of card is far more likely to be encapsulated and protected than an ordinary common. I'd guess half of all Demmitts and O'haras are currently encapsulated, so maybe 150 of each exist?


SIDE NOTE: I think Demmitts and O'haras may be far more rare than people give them credit. "Magies" are referred to as one of the big four and are considered ultra-rare, but while 100 Demmitts and 100 O'haras have been graded by PSA, an astounding 84 Magies have also been graded. That card is not that much rarer, apparently.

[tedzan]

It is very, very naive to use any Graded Company's POP report to ascertain the number of any given BB card's population.

I can tell you, in the past 34 years that I've been in this hobby (as an adult), I know of at least 100 collectors that have
near complete T206 sets with the St Louis variations of Demmitt & O'Hara. There are many more Demmitt & O'Hara (St Lo)
cards than your "100".

And, your guesstimate......
" I'd guess half of all Demmitts and O'haras are currently encapsulated, so maybe 150 of each exist? "

Can only come from a collector who has no appreciation for the hobby (1970-1992) when every sportscard was ungraded.

But, those of you who want to continue to think that the POP reports are the "final word"......Hey, I'm not going to waste
my time trying to convince you otherwise.


TED Z