Honus Wagner t206 in Goldin tomorrow (6/21/25) - what will it sell for?

[oldjudge]

Ryan’s card, Ryan’s choice. If it goes up from here it was a good decision, if not it wasn’t.

[mrreality68]

I agree each consignor has a right to do reserve if they choose or “let it ride”.

Especially the higher the value of the card the higher risk/reward.

Amazing what the bidding was without a winner.

And I am sure when and if he decides to sell at auction or in private he will get what he is asking price wait until he gets it

All the other Wagners were strong prices

[oldjudge]

Does anyone know how Goldin treats reserves? I know some auction houses bid against reserves and some just take the bid to one increment below the reserve so that the next bid exceeds it. I assume that also some auction houses do nothing and just see if the final bid exceeds the reserve.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

Does anyone know how Goldin treats reserves? I know some auction houses bid against reserves and some just take the bid to one increment below the reserve so that the next bid exceeds it. I assume that also some auction houses do nothing and just see if the final bid exceeds the reserve.

In their terms and conditions they state that they may bid an item up to just under the reserve.

"vii. Goldin may place bids below the reserve on behalf of the Seller, either consecutively or in response to other bids."

[oldjudge]

Then do we know if the bid at $4.15 million was a house bid or a third party bidder?

[benjulmag]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

Then do we know if the bid at $4.15 million was a house bid or a third party bidder?

We don't.

[bcbgcbrcb]

It doesn’t make a difference if it was the AH placing the highest bid or another bidder, all that matters is that if the AH was involved at all, who knows if a second real bidder ever even entered the picture so either way the high bid wouldn’t even exist because the sole real bidder wouldn’t be bidding against themself. Even if the AH was not involved at all and never placed a bid, all it takes is a “hobby friend” to get involved and the end result is the same. The best way to avoid this whole scenario is for the AH to not allow reserves and every card simply goes to the highest bidder. The idea that a consignor has the safety net of a reserve or hidden reserve so they don’t have to sell their card if they are not happy with the price defeats the whole purpose of an auction. Then sell your card with a Buy It Now price. Why be given the best of both worlds, make sure you don’t leave any money on the table using a fixed price sale while not having the risk of receiving a disappointing price at auction, whichever works out better for you. Because, to get a high-end card like this, AH’s will fall all over themselves and do ANYTHING to get the consignment. A lot of competition out there you know.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

Then do we know if the bid at $4.15 million was a house bid or a third party bidder?

Since it didn't reach the reserve it is likely to have been a house bid.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

Since it didn't reach the reserve it is likely to have been a house bid.

But the bid before that would have been someone’s that then would have triggered the house bid correct?

[dariushou]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

In their terms and conditions they state that they may bid an item up to just under the reserve.

"vii. Goldin may place bids below the reserve on behalf of the Seller, either consecutively or in response to other bids."

Did Goldin state while bidding that the auction had a reserve or was it a silent reserve? If it was a silent reserve and they can bid against it then that is some fishy ass shit. In my opinion at least.

[tycobb]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

In their terms and conditions they state that they may bid an item up to just under the reserve.

"vii. Goldin may place bids below the reserve on behalf of the Seller, either consecutively or in response to other bids."

Not much experience myself with big AH’s but im lil bit shocked at this and it doesn’t sit right with me .

As for the auction results that too has me a bit shocked! When was the last time a T206 Wagner did not sell ? What happened here seems like a big “L”


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

Ryan’s card, Ryan’s choice. If it goes up from here it was a good decision, if not it wasn’t.

Not since I have been in the hobby has a Wagner gone down but not sure what up from here means. This is a DNS so not sure up or down from here is relevant.

Since GA can bid up to the reserve how many bids did they place and odds are that the high bid was theirs.

[BillyCoxDodgers3B]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

If it goes up from here it was a good decision, if not it wasn’t.

Considering that the card only goes up from past valuations, I guess it's safe to say that it will fare better in the future. It's a pretty nice item to have to hang on to for a bit longer.

[oldjudge]

Like any other asset--it only goes up till it doesn't.

[bobbyw8469]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

Like any other asset--it only goes up till it doesn't.

Bingo. I think we are foolish to assume this card would always go up.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by BillyCoxDodgers3B

Considering that the card only goes up from past valuations, I guess it's safe to say that it will fare better in the future. It's a pretty nice item to have to hang on to for a bit longer.

Did it go up in a no sale? I would maintain it did not, especially not knowing what the highest binding bid was.

[Rhotchkiss]

My card. I was only willing to sell it if I got my price, thus the reserve. My contract reserve was substantially higher than where it ended. We discussed at length whether we start the auction at my reserve or whether we run a process, etc. Ultimately, we decided to start the bidding at $2mm.

I think Goldin did an amazing job marketing the card. In the end, the card is not yet worth what I am willing to part with it at. I don’t intend to comment further.

[SyrNy1960]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

My card. In the end, the card is not yet worth what I am willing to part with it at. I don’t intend to comment further.

+1 Great Card!

[bcbgcbrcb]

Agree with you. Minimum bid at the lowest price you would accept is the way to go. Nobody can question anything then. To the contrary, I’ve never seen a sports AH start an auction with a minimum bid as high as yours would have been. They will always sell the point that it is better to get multiple bidders involved. Thus, the door is wide open then for any type of manipulation that can possibly happen.

One question, do we know definitively whether VCP picks up that auction result in their data. Maybe Bobby can answer that?

[oldjudge]

They shouldn't--the number is meaningless

[Johnny630]

When you have this level of the card, there is only a slim, slim base of actual potential buyers who can and would want to spend that kind of money on an asset that is not as easily liquid at a price and time said wealthy investors would want.

To me too risky to put this kind of money on said asset at this time with us equities and real estate potentially going lower in the upcoming couple of years.

[benjulmag]

Any bidding process that allows the AH the right to bid on the consignor's behalf, regardless of the reserve being disclosed at the outset of bidding, is an invitation for manipulation. Why? Because under such a system bidders have no way of knowing if any particular bid was placed by the AH on the consignor's behalf or was bid by a genuine third-party bidder prepared to purchase based on that hammer bid. Disclosure by the AH of any reserve can somewhat reduce the likelihood of future manipulation, at least at that price level where the reserve has been disclosed and reached, and the bidding has reached a level around what the market expected the item to fetch pre-bidding. However, even in that instance, a bidder would still run the risk that the only reason the reserve was reached was because a prior bid had been induced based on the false assumption by that bidder that he/she was bidding against a real third-party bidder and not the AH.

[benjulmag]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

My card. I was only willing to sell it if I got my price, thus the reserve. My contract reserve was substantially higher than where it ended. We discussed at length whether we start the auction at my reserve or whether we run a process, etc. Ultimately, we decided to start the bidding at $2mm.

I think Goldin did an amazing job marketing the card. In the end, the card is not yet worth what I am willing to part with it at. I don’t intend to comment further.

I respect the fact that you are not willing to sell until you reach your price. My issue is that you appear willing to sell only under a bidding system that allows the AH to manipulate the market to allow it to reach your price. Take the case at hand -- the just-completed Goldin auction. Suppose, say, your reserve was a hammer price of $5M, and, say further, that all bids in excess of $3M were placed by the AH, until the bidding reached $4.9M. And then, at that level, a bid was finally placed at $5M to take it to your $5M minimum, at which point the auction ended. How do we know the person who placed that $5M bid would have been willing to do so if he/she knew he/she was the only bidder above $3M? Humans bid in part based on their perception about what other bidders would be willing to pay. Yes, I get it the AH rules in the fine print disclose that AH bidding on the behalf of the consignor is allowed. But, as evidenced by the discussion in this thread alone, many bidders do not read/understand the full implications of what this means.

This practice of AH bidding is something I have been railing about for many years. IMO, it is nothing less than legalized fraud, rationalized that it is okay to con somebody as long as you give notice ahead of time (via the fine print in the AH rules) that you are trying to con him/her.

In outlining all of this I am not saying you are bad person, or did anything (i) AHs do not encourage or (ii) that the great majority of potential consignors would not be willing to do. But to me the system stinks and should be changed.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by benjulmag

I respect the fact that you are not willing to sell until you reach your price. My issue is that you appear willing to sell only under a bidding system that allows the AH to manipulate the market to allow it to reach your price.

This statement is incorrect. I did not use Goldin bc of their “bidding system”. Indeed, that was not even a consideration for me. Rather, I used Goldin bc i have had a lot of success with them on prior sales (never a reserve), I knew Ken would market the heck out of it (and he did), and because Joe is a friend and I trust him. This is the only card I ever consigned with a reserve (to Goldin or anyone), and bottom line is the card is not yet worth what I need to part with it.

[brunswickreeves]

FWIW, I think the consignor did right by his card. He entered the auction in earnest to find it a new home with someone whom valued it more than he did. That didn’t happen this time, so the card remains with the person whom values and cherishes it most.

[bcbgcbrcb]

Really, Rob? I’m not seeing many Net54’erd consigning vintage baseball cards to Sotheby’s, Christie’s, Bonham’s, etc. I couldn’t afford to pay the shipping cost alone in a Christie’s auction.

[Snapolit1]

How is this any different from me just asking my best friend to push my card into the millions and stop just a dollar before the undeclared reserve price. Lets see if we can get someone in the hook and reel him in. No one would be defending that as ethical. Why is it any different if the auction house is doing it. I’d say it’s even worse.

Even though it says in the fine print that this could happen, me as the bidder of course has no idea whether or not it’s a legitimate bidder on the other end.

I would think any bid on an auction that is not intended in good faith to win an item is a fraudulent bid.

[benjulmag]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

This statement is incorrect. I did not use Goldin bc of their “bidding system”. Indeed, that was not even a consideration for me. Rather, I used Goldin bc i have had a lot of success with them on prior sales (never a reserve), I knew Ken would market the heck out of it (and he did), and because Joe is a friend and I trust him. This is the only card I ever consigned with a reserve (to Goldin or anyone), and bottom line is the card is not yet worth what I need to part with it.

Your own words -- "We discussed at length whether we start the auction at my reserve or whether we run a process, etc."

The "process" here I would characterize as market manipulation. None of this would be the case if you started at your reserve as you had the option to do. Ken advised you correctly. The process, which, yes, many AHs employ, is intended to induce third-party bids that were made only because of the belief the prior bid was a "real" (i.e,, not AH bid). So, you stood a better chance of realizing your minimum sell price by this method than by simply starting at your reserve.

I take you at your word that you did not use Goldin because they employ such a bidding system. As noted, many other AHs employ the same system. The question is the next time you look to sell it, assuming you sell it at auction, will you be willing to either sell with an AH that does not bid on the behalf of the consignor, or in the alternative start the bidding at your reserve price?

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

bottom line is the card is not yet worth what I need to part with it.

Enough said.

[robertsmithnocure]

Originally Posted by benjulmag

I respect the fact that you are not willing to sell until you reach your price. My issue is that you appear willing to sell only under a bidding system that allows the AH to manipulate the market to allow it to reach your price. Take the case at hand -- the just-completed Goldin auction. Suppose, say, your reserve was a hammer price of $5M, and, say further, that all bids in excess of $3M were placed by the AH, until the bidding reached $4.9M. And then, at that level, a bid was finally placed at $5M to take it to your $5M minimum, at which point the auction ended. How do we know the person who placed that $5M bid would have been willing to do so if he/she knew he/she was the only bidder above $3M? Humans bid in part based on their perception about what other bidders would be willing to pay. Yes, I get it the AH rules in the fine print disclose that AH bidding on the behalf of the consignor is allowed. But, as evidenced by the discussion in this thread alone, many bidders do not read/understand the full implications of what this means.

This practice of AH bidding is something I have been railing about for many years. IMO, it is nothing less than legalized fraud, rationalized that it is okay to con somebody as long as you give notice ahead of time (via the fine print in the AH rules) that you are trying to con him/her.

In outlining all of this I am not saying you are bad person, or did anything (i) AHs do not encourage or (ii) that the great majority of potential consignors would not be willing to do. But to me the system stinks and should be changed.

Isn't this how most of the major auction houses conduct their auctions in regards to reserves? Sotheby's, Christie's, Bonham's, collectible car auctions, etc?