Poll - The Stock Market and Vintage Sales

[ValKehl]

Originally Posted by raulus

Maybe instead of moving over a gigantic chunk when you think the bottom has arrived, move smaller chunks over periodically. That way you don't get burned quite so badly if the "bottom" keeps moving down.

Or even just switch your allocation a bit. If you usually invest X every month, then ramp it up to 1.5X or 2X while the market seems to be down.

Although that might require allocating away from other stuff, like cardboard, in which case it might be more painful than we want to admit.

Thanks, Nicolo, for your sound investing advice, which I believe is much the same as Phil's dollar-cost-averaging advice, which my wife subscribes to even more than I do. FYI, I am 81 and my wife is 72. We have been retired for many years, we are debt free and we live comfortably, but not extravagantly, on our Social Security benefits and my pension. Our investment income is reinvested, some automatically and some at our discretion; this is the only ongoing investing we are able to do. Fortunately, we've had no need yet to tap our investments, which we are hoping to be able leave to our kids, grandkids, and great grandkids.

[Yoda]

I think a good indicator as to whether there is a correlation between the stock market and card prices will be the closing tomorrow night of the LOTG auction. If card prices finish flat from their current levels, rather than soar in extended bidding, as per norm, it will be a reflection that the demand curve for vintage has paused, as people worry about their money.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by ValKehl

Thanks, Nicolo, for your sound investing advice, which I believe is much the same as Phil's dollar-cost-averaging advice, which my wife subscribes to even more than I do. FYI, I am 81 and my wife is 72. We have been retired for many years, we are debt free and we live comfortably, but not extravagantly, on our Social Security benefits and my pension. Our investment income is reinvested, some automatically and some at our discretion; this is the only ongoing investing we are able to do. Fortunately, we've had no need yet to tap our investments, which we are hoping to be able leave to our kids, grandkids, and great grandkids.

Well, congrats on making it to this point!

Sounds like you're pretty much set, so you don't really need much by way of advice. But if I had any advice for someone in your situation, it would probably be to not sweat the market. No point in worrying about something you can't control, and probably doesn't really have much of an impact on you anyway.

[ValKehl]

Originally Posted by raulus

Well, congrats on making it to this point!

Sounds like you're pretty much set, so you don't really need much by way of advice. But if I had any advice for someone in your situation, it would probably be to not sweat the market. No point in worrying about something you can't control, and probably doesn't really have much of an impact on you anyway.

Leon, thanks for your kind comments and words of advice. I don't sweat the current market situation, even though I'm expecting a recession similar in scope to the one we had in 2007-09. Now then, if the coming recession escalates into a 1930's depression, then I may be sweating!

[samosa4u]

Originally Posted by raulus

Well, as the market seems to be continuing its march downward, we may find out soon enough whether or not the cardboard market is impacted by a bear market in US equities.

And I guess each of us will get to decide whether that makes a difference in how much we are personally willing to spend on cardboard.

Maybe this will get you Americans to stop driving card prices up to insane highs!!

150k for a freaking PSA 1.5 CJ Shoeless
30K for PSA 1 52T Mantles
20K for National Chicle Bronkos in poor condition
50K+ for shiny Wembanyama rookies

Just ridiculous ...

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by samosa4u

Maybe this will get you Americans to stop driving card prices up to insane highs!!

150k for a freaking PSA 1.5 CJ Shoeless
30K for PSA 1 52T Mantles
20K for National Chicle Bronkos in poor condition
50K+ for shiny Wembanyama rookies

Just ridiculous ...

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and guess that the people who paid those prices aren't sweating a bear market.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and guess that the people who paid those prices aren't sweating a bear market.

It's always fun to speculate. And you could definitely be right. Someone who can afford to drop 6 figures on a single piece of cardboard might have 8 or 9 figures sitting in a bank account somewhere, and so therefore they have plenty of cushion, and don't really care what happens to stocks.

On the other hand, they might be living a lot closer to the financial edge than we might assume.

Personally, I tend to go the other way, and assume that whoever is paying this much for cardboard must have lots of assets tied up in the stock market that could be taking a beating now, which might cause them to sweat pretty hard.

A lot of it tends to stem from my general assumption that humans tend to act irrationally and emotionally, and our cardboard purchases are no exception to that general rule, with people buying cards that are a stretch financially, potentially because they are irrationally exuberant about their future wealth because they believe that either their cardboard or their other investments will keep going up in perpetuity.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Obviously one size is not going to fit every person paying these sorts of prices, but I would guess the vast majority are the type Adam describes. I.e., people to whom the money really is beside the point.

[samosa4u]

Originally Posted by raulus

On the other hand, they might be living a lot closer to the financial edge than we might assume.

Personally, I tend to go the other way, and assume that whoever is paying this much for cardboard must have lots of assets tied up in the stock market that could be taking a beating now, which might cause them to sweat pretty hard.

A lot of it tends to stem from my general assumption that humans tend to act irrationally and emotionally, and our cardboard purchases are no exception to that general rule, with people buying cards that are a stretch financially, potentially because they are irrationally exuberant about their future wealth because they believe that either their cardboard or their other investments will keep going up in perpetuity.

Well said, Raul.

When the pandemic boom started, everybody assumed that it was the "super-rich" or the "guys on Wall Street" who were driving up prices. But when the bubble burst, those same people started to dump their cards, which hurt prices even more. These guys couldn't make their mortgage payments or pay their line of credit and in the end they got destroyed. So, nope ... not rich ... only stupid ...

[guy3050]

Originally Posted by samosa4u

Maybe this will get you Americans to stop driving card prices up to insane highs!!

150k for a freaking PSA 1.5 CJ Shoeless
30K for PSA 1 52T Mantles
20K for National Chicle Bronkos in poor condition
50K+ for shiny Wembanyama rookies

Just ridiculous ...

I know for a fact that it’s a collector from Calgary Canada that bought the CJ Shoeless

[cardsagain74]

Originally Posted by raulus

We’ll see what Jake has to say. But I would posit a few hypotheses:

1 - there are some real limits to the scale. At some point, the market becomes oversaturated with people writing call options, and not as many people buying them. That would cause the price to fall, which would wipe out your gains. So you can probably write calls for a few thousand shares, and maybe even tens of thousands, but once you’re writing millions or hundreds of millions, you’re going to move the market. And most sophisticated shops are investing at scale.

2 - this strategy probably works best with stocks where there is a lot of interest from individual investors. Think Tesla, or GameStop. Particularly when the good times are rolling and the “number go up” crowd is feeling its oats. In these cases, they’re hyper optimistic and will pay good money to buy the right to buy the stock in the future for a price that is well above today’s price. I’m guessing that those excessively exuberant individual investors essentially over-pay for this right because they have so much confidence in their prognostications.

3 - this strategy probably works best when the market is going up up up. Once sentiment turns more dour, particularly for those individual investors, the demand for these call options probably declines, so the market demand and price paid for the options will similarly decline.

Just spitballing here, but those would be my thoughts about why it’s difficult to replicate this strategy always and everywhere at maximum scale.

Plus there’s that tax issue I raised earlier, where income earned using this strategy is taxed heavily.

Not to mention the capital needed to write covered calls. And for options with small premiums relative to the underlying asset value, how the "income" from those premiums adds up so slowly.

Between this and expensive spreads in illiquid spots, commissions, etc....I've always guessed that in theory, options were a similar negative sum game (on both sides) for dart throwers. They're too overpriced to go long with a positive EV, yet all the extra costs and limitations with being short may be just as bad.

In the end, not much different than having to lay -110 on either side of a game in a sportsbook

[toledo_mudhen]

Originally Posted by samosa4u

Maybe this will get you Americans to stop driving card prices up to insane highs!!

150k for a freaking PSA 1.5 CJ Shoeless
30K for PSA 1 52T Mantles
20K for National Chicle Bronkos in poor condition
50K+ for shiny Wembanyama rookies

Just ridiculous ...

O Canada..........................................

Americans do what they do because they can...........

[Brian]

After last week, I am going to change my vote from "no" to "yes." This is looking pretty ugly....

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by samosa4u

Well said, Raul.

When the pandemic boom started, everybody assumed that it was the "super-rich" or the "guys on Wall Street" who were driving up prices. But when the bubble burst, those same people started to dump their cards, which hurt prices even more. These guys couldn't make their mortgage payments or pay their line of credit and in the end they got destroyed. So, nope ... not rich ... only stupid ...

Yes and no. The people who drove up the prices of cards with huge supplies react very differently than those who drove up the prices of rare cards. The former are much closer to commodities: abundant, in stock, continually offered for sale. Those kinds of items are sensitive to fluctuations because they are always available if you have the money, and people can and did plan their buying on a flipping model. If the market stalls out, they are left with a declining asset, and if they leveraged to get it, there will be blood in the marketplace when they sell. But a rare and desirable card will find its market and be hotly contested even as the rest falls, like all of the cards you listed. On the occasions when I've offered cards like that for sale, I stick to my price and I usually get it because I have no reason to negotiate.

[Fred]

Does anybody think that the recent market slide will affect bidding in the auctions that are active? Subconsciously?

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Fred

Does anybody think that the recent market slide will affect bidding in the auctions that are active? Subconsciously?

Hard to imagine it induces bidders to be more aggressive. At best they might ignore it. Somewhere in the middle it might be a subconscious drag on those animal spirits driving people to bid like there’s no tomorrow. And on the other end, some bidders might deliberately pull back.

If the downdraft continues for a while and extends in intensity, it’s hard to imagine that it won’t have an effect.

Like most things in life, it’s a lot easier to identify once it’s happened. I guess we’ll see.

[Casey2296]

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Yep, y'all stay away from the two lots I'm bidding on tonight please.
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[raulus]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

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Yep, y'all stay away from the two lots I'm bidding on tonight please.
-

I’ve had a few nice pickups of late at prices that I thought were a steal. Of course, our perception of what constitutes a steal has shifted over the last 5 years.

Always room to debate what was the trigger for any given outcome, of course. And just because I picked up a few nice deals doesn’t mean that there won’t be plenty that go the other way.

But maybe you’ll get lucky too.

[Fred]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

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Yep, y'all stay away from the two lots I'm bidding on tonight please.
-

Which lots are those, so I can make sure to stay away from them?

[Shoeless Moe]

I watched 2 lots that I was in on last night blow past what I was going to bid tonight. I'm out, but happy to see people spending.

Market goes up & down. Unless you are retiring this month it should have ZERO impact on your spending.

SACK UP!

[ValKehl]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

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Yep, y'all stay away from the two lots I'm bidding on tonight please.
-

I will, Phil, so long as you stay away from the one lot that I just gotta have!

[Tyruscobb]

Originally Posted by Shoeless Moe

Unless you are retiring this month it should have ZERO impact on your spending.

SACK UP!

I completely disagree. Individuals should curtail their spending and card budgets to further amass stock market money. This downturn is an opportunity…at least at some point. The stock market has minted more millionaires than baseball cards.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by Tyruscobb

I completely disagree. Individuals should curtail their spending and card budgets to further amass stock market money. This downturn is an opportunity…at least at some point. The stock market has minted more millionaires than baseball cards.

Only if you are investing in cards. For collectors that doesn't matter.
Regardless of the market, if you are looking to invest, the stock market is better than cards. But if you have money for a hobby, investment isn't really the consideration.

[Exhibitman]

The Love of the Game results also were very strong; Al runs a helluva auction. I whiffed on every lot I was chasing and in most cases it wasn't close. Would've loved to get that Jackie Robinson ca. 1947 snapshot but at $4400+, my ceiling was more of a floor.

[ruth-gehrig]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

The Love of the Game results also were very strong; Al runs a helluva auction. I whiffed on every lot I was chasing and in most cases it wasn't close. Would've loved to get that Jackie Robinson ca. 1947 snapshot but at $4400+, my ceiling was more of a floor.

That was an awesome photo!!
The seller of the 1915 Ruth Team photo did well! Bought Summer 2023 LOTG $6k and sold last night for $140,000.

[oldjudge]

What did the write-up say in 2023? This is like that WWG DiMaggio in Goldin --amazing realization change.

[oldjudge]

Adam--Looking at 19th century material the LOTG realizations were so so at best. Old Judges did OK for the most part but some of the rest did very poorly relative to past realizations.

[ruth-gehrig]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

What did the write-up say in 2023? This is like that WWG DiMaggio in Goldin --amazing realization change.

Well in 2023 it seems PSA labeled it a Type 3. It's now a Type 1

[oldjudge]

Again a grading company change results in a radically higher price. How could PSA go from a type 3 to a type 1 in their evaluation? I know nothing about photos but if graders can't tell the difference between a type 3 and a type 1 why would collectors pay such a premium for the latter?

[raulus]

Originally Posted by ruth-gehrig

Well in 2023 it seems PSA labeled it a Type 3. It's now a Type 1

I guess that explains the meteoric rise in a couple of years.

[Peter_Spaeth]

There is an explanation in the auction itself.

Please note: this very example previously sold in our Summer, 2023 Premier Auction and was encapsulated as a Type III photo at that time. Over one year later a second example of this photo, with identical embedded editing, surfaced in the hobby which PSA determined to be a Type I photo. That photo ultimately sold elsewhere in September, 2024 in excess of $85,000. PSA then updated their opinion on the offered example, determining the embedded editing within both images is, in fact, a result of application to the original negative itself and not present due to use of a copy negative. A full LOA from PSA is included with this photo noting the critical distinction.

[oldjudge]

Yes, Al did a great job explaining it.

[todeen]

Futures closed in Asia, and Monday looks like it's going to be a tough day of selling. And NYT indicates that EU is preparing retaliatory tarifs.

Sent from my SM-S926U using Tapatalk

[Peter_Spaeth]

Time to panic!!!!!!

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Time to panic!!!!!!

Time to sit back and bask in the chaos!

[todeen]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Time to panic!!!!!!

No panic for me. I'm only 39. I'm just hoping I can catch a few months of deflated prices to make my monthly contribution go farther in my chosen index funds.

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[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by todeen

No panic for me. I'm only 39. I'm just hoping I can catch a few months of deflated prices to make my monthly contribution go farther in my chosen index funds.

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That's probably the best way to look at these things.

[bk400]

Here's another card for the thread. The Kid played clean, played hard, and was beloved in both Canada and New York.

[tireolddawg]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

From everything I have read and learned from people in the business, thinking you can time the market, or beat it over the long term with your individual stock picks, is a fool's errand for the vast majority of people.

The late Jim Simons is laughing in his grave.

[egri]

Originally Posted by todeen

No panic for me. I'm only 39. I'm just hoping I can catch a few months of deflated prices to make my monthly contribution go farther in my chosen index funds.

Sent from my SM-S926U using Tapatalk

Same, I guess it's fortuitous that I was outbid on the card I wanted in Heritage; I redeoployed some of those savings to my brokerage account over the weekend.

[sb1]

i have/had roughly the same amount in my Fidelity holdings and my card collection. To date I am down seven figures in the brokerage account, meanwhile the cards remain about the same value as a month or two ago, when the market slide began, and it concerns me very little in the big scheme of things. Fear not, the market will come back sooner or later. I have been in equities since 1989 and remained fully invested thru the Gulf War crisis, Dot com bubble, 2008 Mortgage crisis and Covid, each and every time the market has regained its prior level and gone on to reach even higher and each time I was consistently throwing more money into the holdings. This time will be no different whether it takes 2 month or 2 years I can't predict, but probably much closer to the former than the latter.

My advice to those that frequently ask what to do, is nothing, unless you want to buy more, especially younger investors with the benefit of time on their side. It is very easy to get out of a down market, when to get back in is the hard part, most people either miss it or stay out entirely and miss out even more.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by sb1

i have/had roughly the same amount in my Fidelity holdings and my card collection. To date I am down seven figures in the brokerage account, meanwhile the cards remain about the same value as a month or two ago, when the market slide began, and it concerns me very little in the big scheme of things. Fear not, the market will come back sooner or later. I have been in equities since 1989 and remained fully invested thru the Gulf War crisis, Dot com bubble, 2008 Mortgage crisis and Covid, each and every time the market has regained its prior level and gone on to reach even higher and each time I was consistently throwing more money into the holdings. This time will be no different whether it takes 2 month or 2 years I can't predict, but probably much closer to the former than the latter.

My advice to those that frequently ask what to do, is nothing, unless you want to buy more, especially younger investors with the benefit of time on their side. It is very easy to get out of a down market, when to get back in is the hard part, most people either miss it or stay out entirely and miss out even more.

Why do you believe this?

[Peter_Spaeth]

I can't speak for Scott, but 150 years of history say stock markets go up over time, and the reasons that is so -- improvements in efficiency and innovation -- have never been truer than now. Short term pullbacks happen. Markets go up over time. Look at a chart of the Dow since its inception.

As for the current crisis, it's noise IMO. Unless the tariffs wreck the economy, the economy is strong, technology and innovation are unbelievable, it will be fine.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I can't speak for Scott, but 150 years of history say stock markets go up over time, and the reasons that is so -- improvements in efficiency and innovation -- have never been truer than now. Short term pullbacks happen. Markets go up over time. Look at a chart of the Dow since its inception.

As for the current crisis, it's noise IMO. Unless the tariffs wreck the economy, the economy is strong, technology and innovation are unbelievable, it will be fine.

I should have been clearer - I was specifically asking about the bold part - "that it will be closer to 2 months than 2 years"

[sb1]

Several reasons, firstly someone on one side or the other of the tariffs will fold, and/or the Fed will make a move(lower interest rates), and investors will also realize that multiples are now much lower and the market is oversold. Part of the equation is company earnings as well, and whatever the headwind, companies tend to find a way to increase their earnings through good times and bad, using price pass increases to the consumer or by cutting costs, either way the bottom line comes out positive. Lastly, also consider the huge amount of cash sitting on the sideline, a few hints of good news and the market will "Melt-up" pretty quickly.

None of this is financial advice, just my thoughts and experiences in past downturns.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Not a political comment per se, but under Article I of the Constitution it is Congress that has power over tariffs. If this REALLY goes south and starts threatening people's chances of reelection because the economy collapses, Congress may do something. But I doubt it will come to that.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by sb1

Several reasons, firstly someone on one side or the other of the tariffs will fold, and/or the Fed will make a move(lower interest rates), and investors will also realize that multiples are now much lower and the market is oversold. Part of the equation is company earnings as well, and whatever the headwind, companies tend to find a way to increase their earnings through good times and bad, using price pass increases to the consumer or by cutting costs, either way the bottom line comes out positive. Lastly, also consider the huge amount of cash sitting on the sideline, a few hints of good news and the market will "Melt-up" pretty quickly.

None of this is financial advice, just my thoughts and experiences in past downturns.

Appreciate your thoughts.

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Not a political comment per se, but under Article I of the Constitution it is Congress that has power over tariffs. If this REALLY goes south and starts threatening people's chances of reelection because the economy collapses, Congress may do something. But I doubt it will come to that.

I have read some things that sound like the beginnings of this.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

Appreciate your thoughts.



I have read some things that sound like the beginnings of this.

With all the mixed messaging, partisanship and spin (on both sides), and tone deafness, it's very hard to get a straightforward sense of things, IMO.

[Carter08]

Originally Posted by bk400

Here's another card for the thread. The Kid played clean, played hard, and was beloved in both Canada and New York.

Great card!

[bk400]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I can't speak for Scott, but 150 years of history say stock markets go up over time, and the reasons that is so -- improvements in efficiency and innovation -- have never been truer than now. Short term pullbacks happen. Markets go up over time. Look at a chart of the Dow since its inception.

As for the current crisis, it's noise IMO. Unless the tariffs wreck the economy, the economy is strong, technology and innovation are unbelievable, it will be fine.

Reading the tea leaves of the market is like arguing about baseball, but my sense is that the market is pricing in the risk that there is neither strategy nor competence underpinning the tariff policies -- and that American institutions are losing their prestige both domestically and internationally. If "flight to quality" means a flight of capital to somewhere other than the US, then we have a very big problem.

I'm personally of the view that logic prevails over time, but I think the market isn't as confident about that than I am.