Poll - The Stock Market and Vintage Sales

[Leon]

Let's please don't get political. IF you do, your post will be deleted and an infraction given.

Does the stock market's recent losses (or other big losses in short time frames) have a bearing on your buying of pre-war cards?

Personally, I tend to spend less when my IRA's are down 25% in the last several weeks.

[parkplace33]

Leon, I believe both the stock market and economy have impacts on the entire card market.

I talked to three guys that went to the Philly Card show over the weekend. All said the show was busy, but from their perspective, cards under $100 were selling, but people were leery about spending on the higher value cards. I expect the same
for the rest of 2025.

If you are concerned about the stock market/economy, you pull back in other areas.

[G1911]

It does at some point, but pulling back a few points off of new all-time high records for a few weeks is nowhere near that point. S&P is still higher than it was 6 months ago, and well over the 5,000 milestone it first hit 1 year ago. Dow is up a couple thousand over 6 months ago, down a couple thousand over 3 months ago. I'm not seeing down 25%, or cause for panic to cut out unnecessary expenses, but at some point there is unfortunately such a time for that.

[Exhibitman]

My research on boxing card prices over the years i've published my guide indicates a lag of about 10-12 months between a bear market bottom and a card market bottom. There seems to be a correlation but it takes a bit of time to pound the optimism out of investors and to bring them back out of their shelters.

Now that said, I don't really base my buying on the markets, I base it on the price. Nathan Rothschild said the time to buy when there is blood in the streets. I agree. I bought a lot of vintage cards during the Great Recession because they were so cheap (in some cases $2-$3 per slabbed PSA 8 HOFer) and sold them into the COVID run-up. I only wish I had purchased more cards in the trough sold more of my cards at or near their peaks.

[bk400]

I think the potential issue is the sentiment behind the stock market downturn. The current downturn is not purely a result of the broader US equities market being overvalued on a historical basis; there is a lot more going on -- and a lot more that we haven't seen in a generation or more.

Does this mean that people are more likely to splurge on a $100 card than a $1,000 card? Yes, I'd think so.

This said, I'd imagine that those who are spending upwards of $50,000 on a card probably aren't impacted psychologically in the same way (because their net worth is so high on an absolute level).

[calvindog]

I think it really depends on your age: if you’re retired or soon to be, the short term hiccups in the stock market can have a real impact on your finances and should spur cautious buying. As the markets have been on a pretty straight upward trajectory over the past 30+ years, most of us can deal with these (hopefully) temporary fluctuations. However, this is all based on your income obviously.

For me personally, I’d welcome a hit in card values so as to allow me to buy some big cards at a discount.

[jingram058]

Originally Posted by G1911

It does at some point, but pulling back a few points off of new all-time high records for a few weeks is nowhere near that point. S&P is still higher than it was 6 months ago, and well over the 5,000 milestone it first hit 1 year ago. Dow is up a couple thousand over 6 months ago, down a couple thousand over 3 months ago. I'm not seeing down 25%, or cause for panic to cut out unnecessary expenses, but at some point there is unfortunately such a time for that.

Completely agree with this assessment.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by G1911

It does at some point, but pulling back a few points off of new all-time high records for a few weeks is nowhere near that point. S&P is still higher than it was 6 months ago, and well over the 5,000 milestone it first hit 1 year ago. Dow is up a couple thousand over 6 months ago, down a couple thousand over 3 months ago. I'm not seeing down 25%, or cause for panic to cut out unnecessary expenses, but at some point there is unfortunately such a time for that.

I understand what you are saying. But it is still a mental-thing to see your account at one number and down a lot (mine is down over 25% as I am all in, on tech).
I am not selling anything but am just more careful on spending too much. Everyone is different. A lot of people, maybe most, aren't sensitive to the market. I still sleep well as only approximately 10% of my assets are in the market. But still.....I look at what pre war cards I could have bought with my on-paper market losses. I could have had a lot of Ruths or Cobbys!

I need to see a card...

[bk400]

Originally Posted by Leon

I understand what you are saying. But it is still a mental-thing to see your account at one number and down a lot (mine is down over 25% as I am all in, on tech).
I am not selling anything but am just more careful on spending too much. Everyone is different. A lot of people, maybe most, aren't sensitive to the market. I still sleep well as only approximately 10% of my assets are in the market. But still.....I look at what pre war cards I could have bought with my on-paper market losses. I could have had a lot of Ruths or Cobbys!

I need to see a card...

+1. There's a large body of research that validates your point. We are fundamentally not 100 percent rational when it comes to most decisions, and losses hit us mentally a lot harder than wins.

[jimjim]

Originally Posted by bk400

+1. There's a large body of research that validates your point. We are fundamentally not 100 percent rational when it comes to most decisions, and losses hit us mentally a lot harder than wins.

Agree!! It’s a lot easier for me to list the ones that got away vs the good deals I have had over the years.

[Balticfox]

Originally Posted by Leon

But it is still a mental-thing to see your account at one number and down a lot (mine is down over 25% as I am all in, on tech).

Not wise unless you're in your twenties and thus very early in your income earning years. Quite simply, very rarely does one company stay the smartest in the tech business for long. Even Apple had a major downswing for more than a dozen years until the emergence of the internet enabled it to reinvent itself with the iMac.

Originally Posted by Leon

I still sleep well as only approximately 10% of my assets are in the market.

Hopefully you're not including your principal residence and your personal collectibles in that other 90% because one sells those things only in absolute desperation.



Incidentally the buy-and-hold stable oligopolies investment strategy that served me so well for fifteen years went completely to hell in the last fifteen months. I'm now hurting a bit and not happy at all.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Balticfox

Not wise unless you're in your twenties and thus very early in your income earning years.

Hopefully you're not including your principal residence and your personal collectibles in that other 90% because those are things one sells only in absolute desperation.

I actually like to believe in worst cases, for myself. Worst case is I move into a paid for, really nice house on a few acres, about a mile from where I live....and retire completely tomorrow. And I could live without ever touching my cards, savings or having anything to do with the forum monetarily.
I think I am ok. I give it some thought.
.

[Snapolit1]

A sustained period of a down stock market will eat away at year end or mid year bonuses for a lot of professionals, particularly financial types. I have always assumed that many big purchases are "bonus money" type situations. So I assume anything resembling a real serious market retrenchment will ultimately hit the vintage market hard. Maybe not immediate but it will.

[rand1com]

The market goes up and down but if you have plenty of time for recovery, all will likely be fine as the market has been up on 10 year runs for many cycles.

[Gorditadogg]

Did anybody watch Mad Money yesterday? Cramer had an executive from AEM gold on the show and they were talking about investing in gold.

The exec claimed gold was a "hard asset" and is used to "store value". He said on the other hand Bitcoin was a "trade asset" like baseball cards. He said you might value a Babe Ruth card at a million dollars but I might think it's worth ten cents.

I think it's good that the exec and Cramer acknowledged there are million dollar baseball cards out there, on a finance show. I can't really argue that cards and Bitcoin are both "trade assets" in the sense that their values are referential only.

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[Peter_Spaeth]

Does anyone take Jim seriously? He's an entertainer at this point.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Does anyone take Jim seriously? He's an entertainer at this point.

The program is called "Mad Money". What's not to take seriously?

[Balticfox]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

The program is called "Mad Money". What's not to take seriously?

It would also be a mistake to assume that any of his guests are automatically either clueless or incorrect.

[joshuanip]

IMHO Baseball cards are more correlated to employment than stocks.

The only way I can see baseball cards affected by this market swoon is that it becomes a source of funds. But why would you sell something that retained its value better only to buy a falling knife that is still overvalued.

Employment on the other hand forces your hand. People without a job have other priorities than their hobby, so anything salable is on the table. And supply and demand, when there are more sellers than buyers in an illiquid market, especially the less vintage market, volatility can be exponential.

That also said, similar to the market, the first to go are the “non-investment” cards, then the family heirlooms. So when we do get a bout of high unemployment again, high quality will outperform low quality (same factor analysis phenomenon as in stocks). First five HOF (particularly Ruth’s and cobbs and Wagners) + Joe Jax > other HOFs and non HOF

[todeen]

Futures closed in Asia, and Monday looks like it's going to be a tough day of selling. And NYT indicates that EU is preparing retaliatory tarifs.

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[Peter_Spaeth]

Time to panic!!!!!!

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Time to panic!!!!!!

Time to sit back and bask in the chaos!

[todeen]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Time to panic!!!!!!

No panic for me. I'm only 39. I'm just hoping I can catch a few months of deflated prices to make my monthly contribution go farther in my chosen index funds.

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[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by todeen

No panic for me. I'm only 39. I'm just hoping I can catch a few months of deflated prices to make my monthly contribution go farther in my chosen index funds.

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That's probably the best way to look at these things.

[bk400]

Here's another card for the thread. The Kid played clean, played hard, and was beloved in both Canada and New York.

[egri]

Originally Posted by todeen

No panic for me. I'm only 39. I'm just hoping I can catch a few months of deflated prices to make my monthly contribution go farther in my chosen index funds.

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Same, I guess it's fortuitous that I was outbid on the card I wanted in Heritage; I redeoployed some of those savings to my brokerage account over the weekend.

[sb1]

i have/had roughly the same amount in my Fidelity holdings and my card collection. To date I am down seven figures in the brokerage account, meanwhile the cards remain about the same value as a month or two ago, when the market slide began, and it concerns me very little in the big scheme of things. Fear not, the market will come back sooner or later. I have been in equities since 1989 and remained fully invested thru the Gulf War crisis, Dot com bubble, 2008 Mortgage crisis and Covid, each and every time the market has regained its prior level and gone on to reach even higher and each time I was consistently throwing more money into the holdings. This time will be no different whether it takes 2 month or 2 years I can't predict, but probably much closer to the former than the latter.

My advice to those that frequently ask what to do, is nothing, unless you want to buy more, especially younger investors with the benefit of time on their side. It is very easy to get out of a down market, when to get back in is the hard part, most people either miss it or stay out entirely and miss out even more.