Poll - The Stock Market and Vintage Sales

[1952boyntoncollector]

I didnt say cant have big losses with selling covered calls, all im saying is you will out perform the S and P index which like 90 percent of hedges funds cant claim they can do....actually just having the S and P will also outperfrom most hedge funds...you can roll up calls literally 30 percent higher than the current price every 6 months so you wont lose out on big gains, but you wont make much premium.....

[Peter_Spaeth]

From everything I have read and learned from people in the business, thinking you can time the market, or beat it over the long term with your individual stock picks, is a fool's errand for the vast majority of people.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

From everything I have read and learned from people in the business, thinking you can time the market, or beat it over the long term with your individual stock picks, is a fool's errand for the vast majority of people.

correct thats why S and P index fund is what buffet said to buy and it outperforms 95 percent or so of the investment manager funds that people pay big money to those managers for...selling covered call options on them just adds a little bit more too..

[tireolddawg]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

From everything I have read and learned from people in the business, thinking you can time the market, or beat it over the long term with your individual stock picks, is a fool's errand for the vast majority of people.

The late Jim Simons is laughing in his grave.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

I didnt say cant have big losses with selling covered calls, all im saying is you will out perform the S and P index which like 90 percent of hedges funds cant claim they can do....actually just having the S and P will also outperfrom most hedge funds...you can roll up calls literally 30 percent higher than the current price every 6 months so you wont lose out on big gains, but you wont make much premium.....

How many hedge funds are 100 percent equities? Sort of a false comparison. They are trying to manage risk as well as achieve returns.

[joshuanip]

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[theshowandme]

"It's not about outperformance; it's about being average."

There is nothing average about being average!

[Balticfox]

Originally Posted by joshuanip

A few misconceptions, what is a hedge fund? It’s a fund that hedges....

Absolutely not true! Yes, that's what the word "hedge" means but as a rule hedge funds aren't hedged. They just don't have to abide by the rules regarding such things as diversification under which standard mutual funds operate. Often times hedge funds are very risky indeed because they can make big unconventional bets.

That's why as a stockbroker I NEVER suggested a hedge fund to a client. If the thing dropped, I didn't want to have to respond to the question of why the fund wasn't hedged (against losses) as they thought I implied. No way!

[raulus]

Well, as the market seems to be continuing its march downward, we may find out soon enough whether or not the cardboard market is impacted by a bear market in US equities.

And I guess each of us will get to decide whether that makes a difference in how much we are personally willing to spend on cardboard.

Hopefully no one loses their shirt! And hopefully any economic turbulence doesn't result in anyone here losing their job. Because that seems like it would definitely impact your ability to buy more cards.

[joshuanip]

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[samosa4u]

Originally Posted by raulus

Well, as the market seems to be continuing its march downward, we may find out soon enough whether or not the cardboard market is impacted by a bear market in US equities.

And I guess each of us will get to decide whether that makes a difference in how much we are personally willing to spend on cardboard.

Maybe this will get you Americans to stop driving card prices up to insane highs!!

150k for a freaking PSA 1.5 CJ Shoeless
30K for PSA 1 52T Mantles
20K for National Chicle Bronkos in poor condition
50K+ for shiny Wembanyama rookies

Just ridiculous ...

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by samosa4u

Maybe this will get you Americans to stop driving card prices up to insane highs!!

150k for a freaking PSA 1.5 CJ Shoeless
30K for PSA 1 52T Mantles
20K for National Chicle Bronkos in poor condition
50K+ for shiny Wembanyama rookies

Just ridiculous ...

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and guess that the people who paid those prices aren't sweating a bear market.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and guess that the people who paid those prices aren't sweating a bear market.

It's always fun to speculate. And you could definitely be right. Someone who can afford to drop 6 figures on a single piece of cardboard might have 8 or 9 figures sitting in a bank account somewhere, and so therefore they have plenty of cushion, and don't really care what happens to stocks.

On the other hand, they might be living a lot closer to the financial edge than we might assume.

Personally, I tend to go the other way, and assume that whoever is paying this much for cardboard must have lots of assets tied up in the stock market that could be taking a beating now, which might cause them to sweat pretty hard.

A lot of it tends to stem from my general assumption that humans tend to act irrationally and emotionally, and our cardboard purchases are no exception to that general rule, with people buying cards that are a stretch financially, potentially because they are irrationally exuberant about their future wealth because they believe that either their cardboard or their other investments will keep going up in perpetuity.

[guy3050]

Originally Posted by samosa4u

Maybe this will get you Americans to stop driving card prices up to insane highs!!

150k for a freaking PSA 1.5 CJ Shoeless
30K for PSA 1 52T Mantles
20K for National Chicle Bronkos in poor condition
50K+ for shiny Wembanyama rookies

Just ridiculous ...

I know for a fact that it’s a collector from Calgary Canada that bought the CJ Shoeless

[toledo_mudhen]

Originally Posted by samosa4u

Maybe this will get you Americans to stop driving card prices up to insane highs!!

150k for a freaking PSA 1.5 CJ Shoeless
30K for PSA 1 52T Mantles
20K for National Chicle Bronkos in poor condition
50K+ for shiny Wembanyama rookies

Just ridiculous ...

O Canada..........................................

Americans do what they do because they can...........

[Brian]

After last week, I am going to change my vote from "no" to "yes." This is looking pretty ugly....

[joshuanip]

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[Balticfox]

Originally Posted by joshuanip

I was speaking generally... and they do hedge, that's why they are called hedge funds.

I'm skeptical. Hedge funds call themselves that because the correlation coefficient of their returns against those of the stock market are low. That though doesn't mean they can't be very risky indeed. That's what history shows anyway.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Balticfox

I'm skeptical. Hedge funds call themselves that because the correlation coefficient of their returns against those of the stock market are low. That though doesn't mean they can't be very risky indeed. That's what history shows anyway.

So why do they attract such huge amounts of capital, if people would be better off with index funds, or a mix of index funds and bond funds? Countless billions are invested in these funds.

[Balticfox]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

So why do they attract such huge amounts of capital, if people would be better off with index funds, or a mix of index funds and bond funds?

I wasn't the one who made that argument. I would sooner trust a portfolio manager with a long above average track record to beat the market than an index selected not to beat the average but to be the average. Yes, the statistical evidence for my preference is lacking but I'd rather choose an experienced, intelligent investor to manage my portfolio than the chimpanzee who beat the market the most by throwing darts.

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Countless billions are invested in these funds.

Because every investor an edge, and every single hedge fund manager can make a very good case why his strategy will deliver the superior risk adjusted returns. Only some (a very few?) succeed though.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

So why do they attract such huge amounts of capital, if people would be better off with index funds, or a mix of index funds and bond funds? Countless billions are invested in these funds.

Everyone thinks they have an edge!

And the hedgies seem to be pretty good at selling their story.

No doubt, some of them are probably pretty good, and might even be worth their elevated fees. I think the general premise is their ability to deliver in any market, although they might miss out on the high highs, they'll also protect you from the downswings.

Often another marketing element is their ability to invest in nontraditional assets that might be off-limits in more traditional funds.

Of course, Buffett's bet didn't make the hedgies look all that great:

https://proinvestnews.com/2025/01/28...for-investors/

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

So why do they attract such huge amounts of capital, if people would be better off with index funds, or a mix of index funds and bond funds? Countless billions are invested in these funds.

i have talked to many of fund manager and when i ask them that SPY outperforms 95 percent of funds, they always agree, but they say individuals get too scared to hold them during those extreme downs and rather just let someone else manage

Go and call some of the fund guys..and ask them if they out perform the S and P since the inception of their fund....you will see they dont 95 percent of time time

[joshuanip]

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[Balticfox]

Originally Posted by joshuanip

Don't want to get into a wormhole but bottom line you have a right to be skeptical.

I don't just have the right to be skeptical; I'm right to be skeptical.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by joshuanip

A few misconceptions, what is a hedge fund? It’s a fund that hedges, so when your in an era where people have no clue how options work are gambling on zero dated options, but all they know is “stock go up”, a “hedged” fund will underperform an overheating FOMO market. Hedge funds make their hay in volatile markets, because it creates value dislocations on the long side and the shorts are (finally) working again. So you have an uncorrelated return stream that has lower volatility from the hedge. And through a market cycle (we haven’t had one for a while), hedge funds would generated superior risk adjusted returns to an index. Problem is many retail investors don’t know the difference between absolute and risk adjusted.

Rolling out of the money written calls works best in a market that goes up linearly…they don’t.

it works better than if market goes down and also if market goes up but not parabolic up for many years in a row. but still profit.... there are many articles stating how the SP outperforms money managers. and hedge funds...only 4 did better than SP in 2024, i know its linkedin but i too lazy to look up all the them...there are a ton of articles on it

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/dante...33892608-gcGA/


https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/the-s...nt-even-close/

[B O'Brien]

As a covered call and put seller, you have to have a slightly different mentality to how your portfolio looks. You can’t be greedy, you won’t make every dollar, but you are always making cash. Also, short term cap gains are just part of the game.

Yes, you can miss those 10% runs, but it’s no big deal. I sell weekly calls and puts every Monday morning around the stocks I own. I try to bring in half a percent each Monday in cash, every week. No matter if the market is up or down. I’m trying to bank 26% per year, plus hopefully more because I sell out of the $ calls, usually.

Sometimes one or more my stocks get called away Friday night, no big deal, I already pocketed the option premium. If it made a big run on the week, I can either buy the option back before close on Friday, for very little premium because of the time to expiration, or I can just buy another 100 shares of stock and sell next Friday’s option with 7 days of new time premium on it, aka banking more cash.

When selling weekly put, I only do it on things I am comfortable buying at the price, but I’m pocketing the premium, one way or another. I can always buy out Friday night. I tend to sell these way out of the money, just making tiny %s

Example, I like gold. I just did this.
Bought 100 shares GLD@ 279.70 total $27,970
I sold next Friday $280 call for $300
If it gets called away next Friday, I bank the $300 plus the $30 for shares going up to $300. That’s 1.17% in ten days. I also sold a put for a few dollars.

If gold drops, no big deal, I’ll sell a a call the following week and chip away at the loss and I’m good with owning the gold.

Fees aren’t bad these days, just $0.65 per contract, not like the old days at $8. I’ll literally sell a $5 option, I don’t care, I just want the $4.35, with almost no chance of getting caught holding the bag.

Just an example, but that what I do on 15 or so positions each week. Some may bring in 1.5%, some may bring in 0.2%, but it’s all about the average.

Side note, the cash goes to SPYI, that pays a monthly dividend at 12.77% per year, which is DRIP’d to buy more shares each month when the dividend pays. When the market goes to crap, hopefully there is enough in here to add a new position or bulk up an existing at a good price. Or, straight to the BST when I get the cardboard itch!!!

Bob

[Yoda]

Ah, capitalism.

[joshuanip]

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[Peter_Spaeth]

Speaking of alternative assets, gold hsa hit what I think is an all time high, at lesat dollar wise (I believe there may be other ways to look at it where it's still nowhere near its 90s levels).