Poll - The Stock Market and Vintage Sales

[Exhibitman]

For us mere mortals, securities are all about timing, not skill. My wife and I are terrible at it so we retained a financial planner to handle our portfolio. I just have to hope that I am not caught in a downdraft like the 2000s. The S&P 500's total return from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2009 was a loss of 9.10%. The fact that it came roaring back eventually would not have meant much to someone who had to live on the proceeds for those years.

[Snapolit1]

I wish I was the kind of alpha male collector who welcomes the “blood on the street” and is salivating at the opportunity to pounce, but unfortunately I have an entire life away from vintage card collecting. There is work, kids not yet settled, elderly parents, illness, etc.

[BioCRN]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

I wish I was the kind of alpha male collector who welcomes the “blood on the street” and is salivating at the opportunity to pounce, but unfortunately I have an entire life away from vintage card collecting. There is work, kids not yet settled, elderly parents, illness, etc.

You can accept that capitalism frequently rewards moral shortcomings without losing your own morals or empathy.

Unless you pull the levers that make the immoral decisions, you're going to live through it whether you're buying into that particular system or not. The stock isn't going to sit around in a pool of "unsold"...someone will hold it.

Celebrating people's pain while also celebrating the gains aren't always tied together. For some people it is a sick bonus, though.

[Snapolit1]

Not really talking about morals or empathy. Just can't divorce spending significant amounts of income on collectibles from the rest of my life obligations. My hobbying don't happen in a vacuum, disconnected from all the other shit going on in my life.

Originally Posted by BioCRN

You can accept that capitalism frequently rewards moral shortcomings without losing your own morals or empathy.

Unless you pull the levers that make the immoral decisions, you're going to live through it whether you're buying into that particular system or not. The stock isn't going to sit around in a pool of "unsold"...someone will hold it.

Celebrating people's pain while also celebrating the gains aren't always tied together. For some people it is a sick bonus, though.

[Yoda]

In praise of portfolio diversification, I wonder how one Elon Musk feels about watching his precious Tesla stock crater, losing billions in the process. Gee, maybe now he is only the second richest man on the planet. Stuff happens, Elon.

Leon, I promise this is financial and not political.

[Brent G.]

Originally Posted by Yoda

In praise of portfolio diversification, I wonder how one Elon Musk feels about watching his precious Tesla stock crater, losing billions in the process. Gee, maybe now he is only the second richest man on the planet. Stuff happens, Elon.

Leon, I promise this is financial and not political.

Other investments -- Twitter and Space X -- are equal shitshows.

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by Yoda

In praise of portfolio diversification, I wonder how one Elon Musk feels about watching his precious Tesla stock crater, losing billions in the process. Gee, maybe now he is only the second richest man on the planet. Stuff happens, Elon.

Leon, I promise this is financial and not political.

Just realized that Elon and Leon are anagrams,

but then again so are Tesla and least.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by frankbmd

Just realized that Elon and Leon are anagrams,

but then again so are Tesla and least.

And steal.

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

And steal.

And

Slate

Tales

[Touch'EmAll]

I listened to a vintage card podcast with guest Joe Orlando. Long story short, because of the emotional attachment (which is different than other investments), he feels nice vintage cards would be relatively safe during economic downturns.

[Snapolit1]

Yeah, and Daniel Bouland is pretty confident that no matter how bad things get people will still come in and buy his $80 hamburger.

Originally Posted by Touch'EmAll

I listened to a vintage card podcast with guest Joe Orlando. Long story short, because of the emotional attachment (which is different than other investments), he feels nice vintage cards would be relatively safe during economic downturns.

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Yeah, and Daniel Bouland is pretty confident that no matter how bad things get people will still come in and buy his $80 hamburger.

They laughed at Shake Share in Madison Square Park when burger were $10.....TEN!!!

[Peter_Spaeth]

TSLA is up 17,000 percent since it went public. Elon will be OK.

[Snowman]

Absolutely mind blowing that 65% of the respondents so far in this thread think that people won't spend less when they have less money to spend.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Absolutely mind blowing that 65% of the respondents so far in this thread think that people won't spend less when they have less money to spend.

I think most of the responses here are more about their personal plans, and less about what they think that others will do.

But even so, count me as skeptical that a big hit to the stock market wouldn't impact the average cardboard collector.

I suppose we can debate the line where the average collector starts to feel it, even subconsciously. At 5% maybe not. But as you inch your way up to 10% and beyond, at some point, it seems like there has to be some impact, even if it's merely subconscious and psychological and just causes you to be a little less carefree and unfettered when it comes to bidding like drunken sailors in every auction that comes your way.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Do we have any idea who this "average collector" is? What they earn, what they spend, what they buy, how much they have invested in the stock market, what their overall financial picture is? If we don't know, how can we make any generalizations?

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Do we have any idea who this "average collector" is? What they earn, what they spend, what they buy, how much they have invested in the stock market, what their overall financial picture is? If we don't know, how can we make any generalizations?

By definition, they should be everyone that isn’t at the extremes of all of those elements. I guess I would also limit it to just the vintage cardboard world, as the modern world is a whole different bag o’hamsters.

If you want to throw out a band, then I could get behind the middle 50%, and throw out the top 25% and bottom 25%. If you’re feeling frisky, you could even widen your net a little. And obviously we’re primarily talking about Americans, with apologies to the collecting Canuks out there, and the smattering of collectors from further abroad.

If you sort of frame it around that fat piece in the middle in terms of invested assets and age and income level, it’s not that hard to sort of imagine in your mind’s eye what a decent slice of these average collectors have in terms of income and investments and investing horizon, etc.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by raulus

By definition, they should be everyone that isn’t at the extremes of all of those elements. I guess I would also limit it to just the vintage cardboard world, as the modern world is a whole different bag o’hamsters.

If you want to throw out a band, then I could get behind the middle 50%, and throw out the top 25% and bottom 25%. If you’re feeling frisky, you could even widen your net a little. And obviously we’re primarily talking about Americans, with apologies to the collecting Canuks out there, and the smattering of collectors from further abroad.

If you sort of frame it around that fat piece in the middle in terms of invested assets and age and income level, it’s not that hard to sort of imagine in your mind’s eye what a decent slice of these average collectors have in terms of income and investments and investing horizon, etc.

You seem to have a better sense of it than me. Can you put some ballpark numbers on what you're thinking?

[Casey2296]

-
I'm still waiting for the value of my NFT's I bought from Fanatics/Candy Digital to come roaring back.

Ba Dum Tss..
-

[BioCRN]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Do we have any idea who this "average collector" is? What they earn, what they spend, what they buy, how much they have invested in the stock market, what their overall financial picture is? If we don't know, how can we make any generalizations?

There's so much more, too, like the type of collector they are.

I aim for nice looking "lower" grades of stuff that fits my personal taste (I'm a surface/clarity fan moreso than even centering). I don't own a single card worth 10K+ and I don't really have to think much about adding a card to my collection.

Some guys in my same savings/earnings realm aim much higher and their ability to build wealth and spend big are tied together much more than how I collect.

[Brent G.]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Do we have any idea who this "average collector" is? What they earn, what they spend, what they buy, how much they have invested in the stock market, what their overall financial picture is? If we don't know, how can we make any generalizations?

The "average collector" is not on this site and has limited knowledge of the things discussed in this thread.

[Gorditadogg]

I guess if the market went up I would feel rich and buy more cards, but it's not and I don't so I'm not. In other words, count me as a Yes.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Absolutely mind blowing that 65% of the respondents so far in this thread think that people won't spend less when they have less money to spend.

I'm on mobile and can't see the poll. But the title of the thread is about the stock market. Most people don't have less money to spend when the stock market is down. Most of us aren't living day to day on income from the stock market. I have the exact same money to spend when the market is up as when it's down.

[Rickyy]

I budget my card purchases with "fun" money since its a hobby for me. it's not tied to my investments/retirement funds or funds I set aside for everyday living expenses.

Also I fund what I want by selling what I don't want.

It works good for me.

Ricky Y

[JohnnyHatesJazz]

Me personally, when the market is down, it's a good time to make offers.

[lumberjack]

Since I have been doing the memorabilia thing, Paul Volker pulled the plug on money around 1980-81; Black Monday in 1987 where the Dow dropped 22.6% in one day; 9/11, which speaks for itself; the housing crisis in 2008; Covid, 2020-2l...and now this.

The only difference between everything that happened before what has been going on for the last week is that we know how the other stuff turned out.

Oh, yeah, and people who can afford it never stopped buying memorabilia.

[bk400]

Looking at Treasury yields now, it looks like people are indeed selling. The flight to safety might indeed be to somewhere other than America.

[oldjudge]

The difference between what we are seeing today and the prior crises that you enumerated is that this one is self inflicted and can at least partially if not entirely reversed quickly. Will it be--only time will tell.

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by bk400

Looking at Treasury yields now, it looks like people are indeed selling. The flight to safety might indeed be to somewhere other than America.

-
I can't imagine another country where I would feel safer with my money and potential growth over time than the US stock market. By a wide margin...
-

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

-
I can't imagine another country where I would feel safer with my money and potential growth over time than the US stock market. By a wide margin...
-

I felt this way until recently. The markets don't like chaos...and that's what america voted for...and that's what we'll have.

[Johnny630]

Many times when chaos hits the markets it's how people with guts willing to take a chance get wealthy. It can only happen if they have the cash to deploy into US equities and the stones to do it...you only have to get rich once.

[Balticfox]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

For us mere mortals, securities are all about timing, not skill. My wife and I are terrible at it so we retained a financial planner to handle our portfolio. I just have to hope that I am not caught in a downdraft like the 2000s. The S&P 500's total return from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2009 was a loss of 9.10%. The fact that it came roaring back eventually would not have meant much to someone who had to live on the proceeds for those years.

And of course nobody ever promised us that life was going to be a bowl of cherries. Certainly not our parents.

Moreover nobody ever promised us that stocks had to go up all the time. My initial awareness/experience of the stock market came during the very bumpy markets of 1969-81 so I never developed the expectation that stocks were the road to riches. As I used to say to clients "Well sometimes they go up, sometimes they go down." Had it not been for my underlying ingrained skepticism, I wouldn't have missed out on so many (irrational) booms over the years.