Poll - The Stock Market and Vintage Sales

raulus · #1 03-11-2025, 06:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Do we have any idea who this "average collector" is? What they earn, what they spend, what they buy, how much they have invested in the stock market, what their overall financial picture is? If we don't know, how can we make any generalizations?

By definition, they should be everyone that isn�t at the extremes of all of those elements. I guess I would also limit it to just the vintage cardboard world, as the modern world is a whole different bag o�hamsters.

If you want to throw out a band, then I could get behind the middle 50%, and throw out the top 25% and bottom 25%. If you�re feeling frisky, you could even widen your net a little. And obviously we�re primarily talking about Americans, with apologies to the collecting Canuks out there, and the smattering of collectors from further abroad.

If you sort of frame it around that fat piece in the middle in terms of invested assets and age and income level, it�s not that hard to sort of imagine in your mind�s eye what a decent slice of these average collectors have in terms of income and investments and investing horizon, etc.

Peter_Spaeth · #2 03-11-2025, 06:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by raulus

By definition, they should be everyone that isn�t at the extremes of all of those elements. I guess I would also limit it to just the vintage cardboard world, as the modern world is a whole different bag o�hamsters.

If you want to throw out a band, then I could get behind the middle 50%, and throw out the top 25% and bottom 25%. If you�re feeling frisky, you could even widen your net a little. And obviously we�re primarily talking about Americans, with apologies to the collecting Canuks out there, and the smattering of collectors from further abroad.

If you sort of frame it around that fat piece in the middle in terms of invested assets and age and income level, it�s not that hard to sort of imagine in your mind�s eye what a decent slice of these average collectors have in terms of income and investments and investing horizon, etc.

You seem to have a better sense of it than me. Can you put some ballpark numbers on what you're thinking?

raulus · #3 03-11-2025, 07:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

You seem to have a better sense of it than me. Can you put some ballpark numbers on what you're thinking?

All right.

Let's start by positing that the average vintage collector is around 50 years old. We can argue about whether that's too low or too high, but I'm guessing it's not too far off the mean.

Here in the US, if you look at incomes for people who are that age, at the 75th percentile, you're at $112.5k, and at the 25th percentile, you're at $38k. Naturally, if you're in a high cost area, these numbers will shift up, and probably not by a little in some cases.

For the most part, you're looking at a 10-20 year investment horizon before they start drawing on their assets, although in some cases they might need those assets for upwards of 50 years. So not crazy conservative in their horizon.

In terms of retirement assets at that age, the stats I'm seeing suggest that the 75th percentile has about $300k invested, and the 25th percentile has about $1k invested. Obviously this is going to exclude things like your personal residence, etc, and just be focused on more traditional retirement assets. For those who are fortunate enough to have one, I can also strongly suspect that these stats don't include the value of a pension.

A bit of a caveat - I'm inclined to suspect that the venn diagram circles for the Average American and the Average Vintage Cardboard collector don't overlap perfectly, as we probably skew a bit more towards the top of the range rather than the bottom, simply because we have a nonzero amount of cash to blow on frivolities like old cardboard.

How do those stats strike you? Aside from the 25th percentile of Americans being totally hosed on their retirement savings (which might describe more of us than we're willing to admit), and my supposition that we skew a bit more towards the top of the range, I would guess that those stats are generally in the right ballpark for average.

Peter_Spaeth · #4 03-11-2025, 07:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by raulus

How do those stats strike you?.

I mean there's a lot of play in it, but what you say makes sense. So is someone in that range going to change their buying habits because of a bad month on Wall Street, do you think?

raulus · #5 03-11-2025, 08:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I mean there's a lot of play in it, but what you say makes sense. So is someone in that range going to change their buying habits because of a bad month on Wall Street, do you think?

My turn to flip the question to you - how bad is bad for this bad month?

And perhaps even more important, what is the outlook going forward?

"Sometimes, bad is bad" - Huey Lewis

Peter_Spaeth · #6 03-11-2025, 08:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by raulus

My turn to flip the question to you - how bad is bad for this bad month?

And perhaps even more important, what is the outlook going forward?

"Sometimes, bad is bad" - Huey Lewis

How bad was late 2008/early 2009? Bad, the end was near, but we're now at what 5x the low? How bad was early 2020? Bad, the end was near, people were panicking right and left, but we're now at what, 2+x the low? I think the outlook going forward, in the long run, is fine. Innovation and technology are unbelievable. Short term, sure, there could be a lot of noise.

raulus · #7 03-11-2025, 08:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

How bad was late 2008/early 2009? Bad, the end was near, but we're now at what 5x the low? How bad was early 2020? Bad, the end was near, people were panicking right and left, but we're now at what, 2+x the low? I think the outlook going forward, in the long run, is fine. Innovation and technology are unbelievable. Short term, sure, there could be a lot of noise.

If we're talking Oct/Nov 2008 bad, then it seems like most everyone would modify their spending habits for a while, at least until a lot of the uncertainty was over, and the outlook was looking up, and even then probably not until things were clearly back on track. If you're lower on the income/assets distribution, you modify out of necessity. If you're higher up on the distribution, you modify because of the psychological impact.

There are always exceptions to the rule, and I'm sure plenty will respond to proclaim that they ramped up their purchases of cardboard 10-fold in December 2008, and kept buying nonstop like drunken sailors for the next decade, and they now own a world-class collection because of their willingness to be greedy when everyone else was fearful. But I really doubt that was a common response.

vintagerookies51 · #8 03-16-2025, 03:45 PM

Everyone would probably have a different strategy. If everyone thought like me, card prices would crash during a bear market because I would typically sell some cards to have extra cash to buy stocks while they�re low

Snowman · #9 03-11-2025, 08:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I mean there's a lot of play in it, but what you say makes sense. So is someone in that range going to change their buying habits because of a bad month on Wall Street, do you think?

It seems like most here are conflating the stock market with retirement portfolios. But that only makes up about half of the market allocation. A significant percentage of the value of the stock market is also used for annual compensation of the workforce. Especially in the tech space. Out here in Silicon Valley, RSUs, ESPPs, stock options, and annual bonuses often make up about half of an employee's total compensation (and sometimes significantly more). When the markets take a hit, people make less money. I just sold about 250 shares of company stock last month. Today, those shares are down about $100 per share compared to what they were at when I sold them. Had I waited another month, that would have resulted in me having $25k less to spend on cardboard, vacations, Hello Kitty toys for the daughter, and designer handbags for the wife.

When there is less money to go around, less money goes around. It's simple economics.

jayshum · #10 03-11-2025, 08:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snowman

It seems like most here are conflating the stock market with retirement portfolios. But that only makes up about half of the market allocation. A significant percentage of the value of the stock market is also used for annual compensation of the workforce. Especially in the tech space. Out here in Silicon Valley, RSUs, ESPPs, stock options, and annual bonuses often make up about half of an employee's total compensation (and sometimes significantly more). When the markets take a hit, people make less money. I just sold about 250 shares of company stock last month. Today, those shares are down about $100 per share compared to what they were at when I sold them. Had I waited another month, that would have resulted in me having $25k less to spend on cardboard, vacations, Hello Kitty toys for the daughter, and designer handbags for the wife.

When there is less money to go around, less money goes around. It's simple economics.

The poll asks about what individual people answering it will do so they presumably know their own financial situation better than you do. Not everyone on here may have as much dependence on the stock market as you apparently have.

Exhibitman · #11 03-11-2025, 08:45 PM

Don�t forget the GI Joe with the Kung Fu grip.

Snapolit1 · #12 03-11-2025, 08:51 PM

Don�t mean to be flip, but regardless of your personal situation, wouldn�t you be an idiot not to take into consideration major stock market losses in any type of major purchase? Take real estate. Are you going to tell me that you aren�t going to factor into your purchase of a home the idea that many other people who may be potential purchasers may be pulling back their horns a little because of anxiety about falling stock values? Wouldn�t it be just dumb not to factor that into your thought process?

OhioLawyerF5 · #13 03-11-2025, 09:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snowman

It seems like most here are conflating the stock market with retirement portfolios. But that only makes up about half of the market allocation. A significant percentage of the value of the stock market is also used for annual compensation of the workforce. Especially in the tech space. Out here in Silicon Valley, RSUs, ESPPs, stock options, and annual bonuses often make up about half of an employee's total compensation (and sometimes significantly more). When the markets take a hit, people make less money. I just sold about 250 shares of company stock last month. Today, those shares are down about $100 per share compared to what they were at when I sold them. Had I waited another month, that would have resulted in me having $25k less to spend on cardboard, vacations, Hello Kitty toys for the daughter, and designer handbags for the wife.

When there is less money to go around, less money goes around. It's simple economics.

I would guess the percentage of collectors of whom a significant portion of their (non-retirement)income comes from the stock market is tiny and insignificant. It wouldn't move the needle on this poll. Most people just don't fall into that category.

BioCRN · #14 03-11-2025, 09:09 PM

All musings aside, there is a non-insignificant number of board users saying market conditions will influence or have a possibility of influencing their vintage purchases.

Roughly 1/3rd consider themselves exposed and 1/5th in danger.

Peter_Spaeth · #15 03-11-2025, 09:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

I would guess the percentage of collectors of whom a significant portion of their (non-retirement)income comes from the stock market is tiny and insignificant. It wouldn't move the needle on this poll. Most people just don't fall into that category.

Ai disagrees, FWIW.
While it's difficult to pinpoint an exact percentage of employees with stock-based compensation (SBC), nearly three-quarters (72%) of companies offer some form of equity compensation to certain employees, up from 65% in 2021. This suggests that a significant portion of the workforce is receiving some form of stock compensation.

View Poll Results: Do the stock market losses play into your vintage buys?
Yes	95	25.33%
No	230	61.33%
Sometimes	50	13.33%
Voters: 375. You may not vote on this poll

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