Poll - The Stock Market and Vintage Sales

[Ronnie73]

I voted no. Mainly because my card spending money comes from a completely different source. Personally I think the stock market is finally starting to adjust to it's true market value. There's been way too many gains over the last 9 years that just don't match up to the surrounding income and expenses, along with the value of the dollar. I could agree with the reason of the previous few years of market gains to equal or match the adjustment of inflation and what a dollar bill can currently buy you in real life.

For example, Say our dollar is worth a dollar and can buy you a dollar's worth of items. While at the same time, say the stock market is at 30,000. If the dollar loses half of it's buying power due to inflation and the over printing of money. I would also expect the stock market to increase to 45,000. Now that increase of the stock market looks great, and people are making nice dividends, and feeling good about that stock market price. But the reality is the stock market increased by 50 percent, only because the dollar value and buying power decreased by 50 percent.

This is obviously just my opinion, and simple math.

[packs]

I think there's a heavy caveat involved: are you nearing the end term of your investments?

I'm not. I can't touch my Roth IRA for another 20 years. I could care less about the market today.

If I was in dire need of my retirement funds, then I'd be watching what I spend because chances are this is the absolute worst time to need your money.

[Balticfox]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

How is it wrong? It isn't wrong.

The graph is correct. The "problem" though is that its scale on the vertical axis is arithmetic and not geometric. This means that recent percentage changes aren't apparent at a glance.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Balticfox

The graph is correct. The "problem" though is that it's scale on the vertical axis is arithmetic and not geometric. This means that recent percentage changes aren't apparent at a glance.

Or, one could conclude that in the big picture, they aren't that significant. But sure, any graph's visual impact depends on scaling.

[BioCRN]

Money that is sunk into a stock "down in the moment" is money that is not working for you.

It's a lost opportunity.

Eventually you may find yourself back to even or profit, but there's a cost of lost opportunity while it sits there trying to get back to where you started.

It can even make sense to sell at a loss to put your money back to work depending on your next plan.

[Section103]

I think there are indirect impacts. When the market is down, there often is economic uncertainty that can curtail discretionary spending of any kind. If we're worried about the future or our jobs - it has an impact. Also, as the market fluctuates, it has an impact on who is in the market and who is out and that can lead a few speculators to get more into cards (alternatives to the market) or less (heavier focused on the market). It doesnt impact me directly very often as Im a low budget collector, but the impacts are definitely there.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by BioCRN

Money that is sunk into a stock "down in the moment" is money that is not working for you.

It's a lost opportunity.

Eventually you may find yourself back to even or profit, but there's a cost of lost opportunity while it sits there trying to get back to where you started.

It can even make sense to sell at a loss to put your money back to work depending on your next plan.

If you're an active trader, sure. But most people do not have the time, energy, and sophistication that takes. Buy and hold, and broad based funds, work better for most people as I understand it.

[Exhibitman]

For us mere mortals, securities are all about timing, not skill. My wife and I are terrible at it so we retained a financial planner to handle our portfolio. I just have to hope that I am not caught in a downdraft like the 2000s. The S&P 500's total return from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2009 was a loss of 9.10%. The fact that it came roaring back eventually would not have meant much to someone who had to live on the proceeds for those years.

[Snapolit1]

I wish I was the kind of alpha male collector who welcomes the “blood on the street” and is salivating at the opportunity to pounce, but unfortunately I have an entire life away from vintage card collecting. There is work, kids not yet settled, elderly parents, illness, etc.

[Balticfox]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

For us mere mortals, securities are all about timing, not skill. My wife and I are terrible at it so we retained a financial planner to handle our portfolio. I just have to hope that I am not caught in a downdraft like the 2000s. The S&P 500's total return from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2009 was a loss of 9.10%. The fact that it came roaring back eventually would not have meant much to someone who had to live on the proceeds for those years.

And of course nobody ever promised us that life was going to be a bowl of cherries. Certainly not our parents.

Moreover nobody ever promised us that stocks had to go up all the time. My initial awareness/experience of the stock market came during the very bumpy markets of 1969-81 so I never developed the expectation that stocks were the road to riches. As I used to say to clients "Well sometimes they go up, sometimes they go down." Had it not been for my underlying ingrained skepticism, I wouldn't have missed out on so many (irrational) booms over the years.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

If you're an active trader, sure. But most people do not have the time, energy, and sophistication that takes. Buy and hold, and broad based funds, work better for most people as I understand it.

actually its pretty easy, you buy an index fund like sp 500, SPY and hold and sell calls on it and you will outperfrom 95% of the 'expert funds'

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

actually its pretty easy, you buy an index fund like sp 500, SPY and hold and sell calls on it and you will outperfrom 95% of the 'expert funds'

Pardon the naivety, however what if you sell calls, and since stocks only go up, you stock gets called away?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

actually its pretty easy, you buy an index fund like sp 500, SPY and hold and sell calls on it and you will outperfrom 95% of the 'expert funds'

Yes, I'm sure it's that easy.