Never Too Early to Check:

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by Mike D.

One thing to remember is that the vote totals always end up lower, as those voters who don't publish their ballots tend to be the ones who also don't take things like modern statistics into consideration. If I recall, the drop is usually like 5-8%. So, all three of the "likely" candidates should still make it, but it's unlikely Beltran makes it, although he'll get upper 60's or maybe even 70%.

Beltran has picked up 16 votes from people that didn't vote for him last year and only lost 1 so he's definitely trending in the right direction. If he doesn't get in this year, next year is definitely possible.

[Mike D.]

Originally Posted by jayshum

Beltran has picked up 16 votes from people that didn't vote for him last year and only lost 1 so he's definitely trending in the right direction. If he doesn't get in this year, next year is definitely possible.

Next year is "the class without a new first ballot candidate" too, with Cole Hamels the closest thing to a HOFer who's appearing for the first time on the ballot. That should help anyone who's close. It wouldn't surprise me if both Beltran and Jones make it next year.

[KJA]

Originally Posted by Mike D.

Next year is "the class without a new first ballot candidate" too, with Cole Hamels the closest thing to a HOFer who's appearing for the first time on the ballot. That should help anyone who's close. It wouldn't surprise me if both Beltran and Jones make it next year.

Those no clear ballot classes are my favorite sometimes, just to see what holdovers can gain ground or get in. The 2027 class should be kind of interesting with Buster Posey as the top candidate followed by Jon Lester.

[Mike D.]

Originally Posted by KJA

Those no clear ballot classes are my favorite sometimes, just to see what holdovers can gain ground or get in. The 2027 class should be kind of interesting with Buster Posey as the top candidate followed by Jon Lester.

Based on how well Mauer did, I have to assume Posey goes first ballot, especially if Jones and Beltran get in in 2026.

As a Red Sox fan, I have a soft spot for Lester. Not sure he's a Hall of Fame starter, but I hope he hangs around the ballot a while and voters really think about his case.

[packs]

I agree. Posey and Mauer's fortunes were probably tied and with Mauer a first ballot I expect Posey to be as well:

[Mike D.]

Just had my look at the returning candidates publish:

Cardlines Guide To The Returning Candidates On The 2025 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

[clydepepper]

I came up with 387 total ballots and 291 needed to be elected, but now, upon re-checking, there may be 391 total ballots (derived from .324/127)(pct. of total votes known/votes known)- in which case, 294 would get them in.


.

[KJA]

Originally Posted by Mike D.

Based on how well Mauer did, I have to assume Posey goes first ballot, especially if Jones and Beltran get in in 2026.

As a Red Sox fan, I have a soft spot for Lester. Not sure he's a Hall of Fame starter, but I hope he hangs around the ballot a while and voters really think about his case.

Yeah I think Posey is first ballot. Lester will be interesting, his post season stats are good and he has spent a lot of time there. I think he hangs around on the ballot for sure like Buehrle has been doing.

[jayshum]

With a week to go until the official announcement, 38.5% of the votes have been counted. Right now, Ichiro and C.C. appear to be locks (Ichiro for sure).

Billy Wagner has picked up 8 votes from returning voters and lost none. Last year, he missed by 5 so as long as he doesn't lose any votes from anyone, he should just get in.

Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones have both picked up a number of votes while only losing a few, but it looks like they are both on pace to miss induction but by a smaller number than last year considering that the unreported voters usually end up bringing down the percentage for most candidates. It's possible either (or both) could just squeak in, but if I had to guess, I'd say neither will. With no real first ballot candidates next year, I think they both get in next year.

[Mike D.]

I still think he misses out, but with 146 ballots public (39.8%) Beltran ticks up to 80.1%. He could end up VERY close!

[egri]

Originally Posted by KJA

Yeah I think Posey is first ballot. Lester will be interesting, his post season stats are good and he has spent a lot of time there. I think he hangs around on the ballot for sure like Buehrle has been doing.

Also a Sox fan with a soft spot for Lester. I don't think he gets in from the writers, I think he'll hang around on the ballot and the Veterans Committee (or whatever they're calling it these days) will ultimately put him in. His narrative (rookie season derailed by cancer, beats it, comes back the following year to win the clinching game of the World Series, throws a no-hitter the following year, then is a big part of the 'Boston Strong' team and the curse-breaking Cubs) will carry a lot more weight with them than the writers.

[Mike D.]

Originally Posted by egri

Also a Sox fan with a soft spot for Lester. I don't think he gets in from the writers, I think he'll hang around on the ballot and the Veterans Committee (or whatever they're calling it these days) will ultimately put him in. His narrative (rookie season derailed by cancer, beats it, comes back the following year to win the clinching game of the World Series, throws a no-hitter the following year, then is a big part of the 'Boston Strong' team and the curse-breaking Cubs) will carry a lot more weight with them than the writers.

Same situation as a Sox fan. The BBWAA voters are typically behind the times by about a decade and a half when it comes to pitchers...it'll be interesting to see what a Hall of Fame pitcher looks like after the last of the old(er) school guys like Verlander, Scherzer, and Kershaw retire and get elected.

[clydepepper]

Originally Posted by KJA

Those no clear ballot classes are my favorite sometimes, just to see what holdovers can gain ground or get in. The 2027 class should be kind of interesting with Buster Posey as the top candidate followed by Jon Lester.

If or when Posey gets in, there has to be a stronger effort to get Thurman Munson in.

(and Luis Tiant while we're at it!)

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