Never Too Early to Check:
 

I just can't help watching this every day:

https://www.bbhoftracker.com/2024/11...d-leaderboard/


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I enjoy following the vote totals as they are updated as well, but it does take most of the surprise out of the official announcement in January.

Odds that Ichiro is unanimous?

Love it, I check the tracker often. I think Ichiro get a high 90's voting percentage, but at least one voter leaves him off for some questionable reason.

My article on the new candidates published yesterday:

Cardlines Guide To The New Candidates On The 2025 Baseball Hall Of Fame Ballot

Fun article with a look at some cards I wouldn't have seen otherwise. Thanks!

Always interesting to see which of these first timers stick on the ballot. So far Felix, Kinsler and Pedroia are abover 5%.

Currently looks like Ichiro, CC and Wagner could get in this time, and Beltran and Jones could be close. With no one next year being an obvious first ballot choice, anyone who gets close this year has a great chance next year.

As a Phillies fan, I think most people in the area always felt Jimmy Rollins was going to have a much better chance than Chase Utley at getting in the Hall of Fame. Now that both have been on the ballot for a couple years, it looks like Utley will get in within the next few years and Rollins will languish on the ballot until his eligibility runs out.

Fellow Phillies fan here. Rollins looks like a better choice based on traditional stats while Utley looks better using more advanced stats. I agree with you that Utley has the better chance of getting elected, but it wouldn't surprise me if neither did.

I think Utley will get in over the coming years, just based on where his vote started and his momentum. I was surprised he was strong as he was in his first year on the ballot (28 percent) and he is at 47 percent right now in a year when four guys may be elected. The ballot will not always have so many guys will strong HoF cases.

By comparison, Rollins' HoF votes have barely moved. He started at nine percent in 2022, received 14 percent last year and is only at 16 percent this time around on the ballots so far.

One thing to remember is that the vote totals always end up lower, as those voters who don't publish their ballots tend to be the ones who also don't take things like modern statistics into consideration. If I recall, the drop is usually like 5-8%. So, all three of the "likely" candidates should still make it, but it's unlikely Beltran makes it, although he'll get upper 60's or maybe even 70%.

So far, Utley has picked up 10 votes from people that didn't vote for him last year, but he also lost 5 votes from people who did vote for him last year. For 2 of those voters, they voted for 10 others so Utley apparently got pushed out by some of the new choices such as Ichiro and C.C. However, the other 3 voted for less than 10 and decided to leave Utley off their ballots this year after voting for him last year. Seems strange.

Rollins has picked up 7 votes from people that didn't vote for him last year and hasn't lost any from people who did (so far). If that continues, his overall percent will climb a little, but he's still a long way from being voted in.

Beltran has picked up 16 votes from people that didn't vote for him last year and only lost 1 so he's definitely trending in the right direction. If he doesn't get in this year, next year is definitely possible.

Next year is "the class without a new first ballot candidate" too, with Cole Hamels the closest thing to a HOFer who's appearing for the first time on the ballot. That should help anyone who's close. It wouldn't surprise me if both Beltran and Jones make it next year.

Those no clear ballot classes are my favorite sometimes, just to see what holdovers can gain ground or get in. The 2027 class should be kind of interesting with Buster Posey as the top candidate followed by Jon Lester.

Based on how well Mauer did, I have to assume Posey goes first ballot, especially if Jones and Beltran get in in 2026.

As a Red Sox fan, I have a soft spot for Lester. Not sure he's a Hall of Fame starter, but I hope he hangs around the ballot a while and voters really think about his case.

I agree. Posey and Mauer's fortunes were probably tied and with Mauer a first ballot I expect Posey to be as well:

https://live.staticflickr.com/4702/4...e1fe90a9_z.jpg

Just had my look at the returning candidates publish:

Cardlines Guide To The Returning Candidates On The 2025 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

Can Anyone check my math?
 

I came up with 387 total ballots and 291 needed to be elected, but now, upon re-checking, there may be 391 total ballots (derived from .324/127)(pct. of total votes known/votes known)- in which case, 294 would get them in.


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The Hall of Fame Ballot Tracker site lists an estimate of 392 ballots with 294 needed for election. There's no way to know exactly how many ballots are actually returned until the results are released, but I think their estimate is usually pretty close.

Thanks...I see it now.

Yeah I think Posey is first ballot. Lester will be interesting, his post season stats are good and he has spent a lot of time there. I think he hangs around on the ballot for sure like Buehrle has been doing.

With a week to go until the official announcement, 38.5% of the votes have been counted. Right now, Ichiro and C.C. appear to be locks (Ichiro for sure).

Billy Wagner has picked up 8 votes from returning voters and lost none. Last year, he missed by 5 so as long as he doesn't lose any votes from anyone, he should just get in.

Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones have both picked up a number of votes while only losing a few, but it looks like they are both on pace to miss induction but by a smaller number than last year considering that the unreported voters usually end up bringing down the percentage for most candidates. It's possible either (or both) could just squeak in, but if I had to guess, I'd say neither will. With no real first ballot candidates next year, I think they both get in next year.

I still think he misses out, but with 146 ballots public (39.8%) Beltran ticks up to 80.1%. He could end up VERY close!

Beltran is on pace to pick up about 50 votes, and last year he missed by 69. I agree that it will be close, but that's why I said in my previous post that I don't think he gets in this year.

While I always look forward to seeing the results from the tracker, The Hall of Fame has lost a lot of credibility in my eyes. Some of the greatest players to ever play the game are not in it.

And while I'm not condoning what players like Bonds and Clemens did, I think it's a bit hypocritical to have Bud Selig in the Hall of Fame. He certainly didn't care about them used PED's when it was generating millions upon millions of dollars for his team/the sport.

Furthermore if you draw the line at someone getting injected with a substance but condone someone as morally deplorable as Cap Anson has been allowed to stay in the Hall of Fame, then I really don't know what to say anymore.

I agree with you about the hypocrisy of Selig being inducted and the PED players not being. For Anson, it's harder because you can't easily apply today's accepted behavior with what was considered acceptable back in his time. He wasn't the only one responsible for baseball being segregated even though he certainly played a significant part.

Jay,

I think I worded it poorly on my part, I'm going to leave my original post. What I was trying to say was that I do think Anson should be in the Hall of Fame. He statistically is a Hall of Famer. He was a pioneer of the game. Statistically speaking, Clemens, Bonds, Rodriguez, etc. All belong as well.

I can't for the life of me understand someone attempting to take the moral high ground argument when it comes to the PED users, but also simultaneously be okay with players like Anson being in the Hall of Fame.

Hope this clarifies things.

James

James, I understood what you were saying in your first post. There are people who think players like Anson should be removed from the Hall of Fame as well as Commissioner Landis and others who's morals don't fit the present even though they may not have been that far from the norm in their own time.

I don't see wanting to keep people out of the Hall now for PEDs just because people like Anson are already in as being hypocritical because they're from different eras and what was considered acceptable in Anson's time is a lot different from now. I see more of a problem with Selig being in (as you said) because he was part of the same era as Bonds, McGwire, etc and clearly had something to do with PED usage being allowed to continue for as long as it did so if the players are to be punished with exclusion then he should be as well.

CC looking like a first ballot inductee and Schilling not being in is ridiculous. CC only exceeds him in games, wins and IP. He does have one Cy. Schilling's post season numbers and results greatly exceed CCs.

I deplore most of Schilling's post career behaviors but his on field results make him worthy.

I also would like Jeff Kent to be given a better look if Chase Utley is gathering steam.

Yes, Schilling is a world-class knob, but to date that's not been enough to keep anyone else out of the Hall of Fame (it's PED's, gambling, and domestic abuse to date). He should have been voted in by the writers.

With the committees, who knows when he'll get on a ballot (could be as early as next year) and when he does, who he'll be on with and will he get elected.

Sabathia and Schilling did overlap by a few years, but Schilling's debut was 13 years before Sabathia, making them sort of a different generation of pitchers. Going forward, what a Hall of Fame starting pitcher looks like is going to be really hard to figure out!

I think both Kent and Utley belong. Not sure why Kent didn't get that much love on the ballot.

Kent also had a reputation for being a world-class knob. No comment on whether it's deserved or not... but he was widely reviled as a human. So if he doesn't get in, he might test your theory that Schilling is the only one disqualified for knobbery.

Schilling won the Roberto Clemente award and was well known to be a supporter of our troops.

His "knobdom," including saying he didn't want to be elected, certainly ruined his chances.

I can't comment on Kent's reputation.

Some of the knobish things he did was borrow 10's of millions from the state of RI to move him company there and almost immediately run it into the ground, share memes about murdering journalists, and break the news that Tim Wakefield had cancer days before his death.

But nobody is all good or all bad....I believe he did some significant fundraising for cancer research and did support our troops.

In my mind, he falls into the Pete Rose camp of being his own worse enemy. Like, if he'd literally said nothing after his 9th year on the ballot, I'm sure he'd have been elected in this 10th and final year. But instead he chose to disparage the voters and say he didn't want to get elected.

So, should he be in the Hall of Fame? Absolutely. Is he easy to feel bad for? Not so much.

Was he the one that got hurt on a motorcycle and almost got his contract canceled?

Kent played longer and had more power. Utley had probably a more all-around peak and was a better baserunner. I can't speak to their defense, although I think I remember Kent having a reputation as a below-average second baseman.

If or when Posey gets in, there has to be a stronger effort to get Thurman Munson in.

(and Luis Tiant while we're at it!)

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Also a Sox fan with a soft spot for Lester. I don't think he gets in from the writers, I think he'll hang around on the ballot and the Veterans Committee (or whatever they're calling it these days) will ultimately put him in. His narrative (rookie season derailed by cancer, beats it, comes back the following year to win the clinching game of the World Series, throws a no-hitter the following year, then is a big part of the 'Boston Strong' team and the curse-breaking Cubs) will carry a lot more weight with them than the writers.

Same situation as a Sox fan. The BBWAA voters are typically behind the times by about a decade and a half when it comes to pitchers...it'll be interesting to see what a Hall of Fame pitcher looks like after the last of the old(er) school guys like Verlander, Scherzer, and Kershaw retire and get elected.

Yes, he claimed he injured himself because he fell of his truck while washing it. He was also notorious for being an a-hole to teammates and media, he was a mediocre defender, and he put up his offensive numbers during the steroid era, when numbers were up across baseball. That's probably enough to keep him out.

It's interesting that he never really got anywhere close to being elected. Other than the "last year bump" of 46.5%, he never cleared 1/3 of the vote, and spent the bulk of his time on the ballot under 20%.

It'll be fascinating to see who ends up on the "modern baseball" (post-1980) ballot next year, and if they manage to elect anyone. My guess on recent history is that they flub both the player who appear on the ballot and the inductees.

Looking at the pitchers still going beyond those 3 and Greinke. I'm not even sure who goes in after them, I assume Gerritt Cole gets 200 wins, maybe gets 3000k's or gets close and maybe makes the HOF. Chris Sale maybe has a couple more good seasons and has a chance.

Yes, Cole and Sale are probably the two most likely. Maybe deGrom has a late-career string of health, but that feels unlikely. Beyond that is anyone's guess.