I simply do not understand Modern - Doncic vs Mantle

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I was asking my son if Ja Morant was still good. He said he is still good but after the gun incident nobody likes him. Then I started to wonder how his cards are doing and I remembered this thread and I saw this quote/ statement. Still accurate?

Also, it’s a fun reread. How has Doncic’s major rookie cards held up against the 52 Mantle over the past 2.5 years since I started this thread? My gut is the Mantle has done much much better than Doncic over the past 2.5 years.

Cursory examination of recent eBay auctions has the Doncics in the $10-$20k range and the Mantles in the $25-$50k range. I'm not sure in either case if these are the same ones that were going for low-mid 6-figures a couple of years. ago

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by darwinbulldog

Cursory examination of recent eBay auctions has the Doncics in the $10-$20k range and the Mantles in the $25-$50k range. I'm not sure in either case if these are the same ones that were going for low-mid 6-figures a couple of years. ago

The OP compared the early 2022 auction prices of a 2018 Luca Doncic National Treasurers RPA to 99 graded BVG 9.5 to a 1952 Topps Mantle PSA 7. At that time, a Doncic was at auction in PWCC and sitting at $280k before Buyers Premium and a Mantle being sold in the same auction was at $240k before Buyers Premium.

Looking on Ebay, Fanatics Collect (whatever that is) has the same exact Donci card discussed above as available for sale for $85,000. That is literally 25% of what it was at, with Buyer's premium, in January 2022. Wow, 75% reduction, and that's just asking price. My gut is at auction it sells for even less, which frankly, it should as I dont see why its worth more than $!0k.

Meanwhile, the last sale of a PSA 7, 1952 Topps Mantle, and the only 2024 example in VCP, was for $264k, which is the average of two late 2023 sales. While this is way down from a high of $468k in late 2022 (45%), its only down 8% from where it was in January 2022 (with BP) when the thread was started.

Bottom line, and I think we all know this: Doncic has completely crashed since early 2022 and, while 1952 Topps Mantle is down since that time, it has held up monumentally better than Doncic. Conclusion -- Mantle over Doncic 100 out of 100 times.

As for Morant vs Doncic...... I dont care; I only collect dead baseball players who were played before my grandparents were born

[samosa4u]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

The OP compared the early 2022 auction prices of a 2018 Luca Doncic National Treasurers RPA to 99 graded BVG 9.5 to a 1952 Topps Mantle PSA 7. At that time, a Doncic was at auction in PWCC and sitting at $280k before Buyers Premium and a Mantle being sold in the same auction was at $240k before Buyers Premium.

Looking on Ebay, Fanatics Collect (whatever that is) has the same exact Donci card discussed above as available for sale for $85,000. That is literally 25% of what it was at, with Buyer's premium, in January 2022. Wow, 75% reduction, and that's just asking price. My gut is at auction it sells for even less, which frankly, it should as I dont see why its worth more than $!0k.

Meanwhile, the last sale of a PSA 7, 1952 Topps Mantle, and the only 2024 example in VCP, was for $264k, which is the average of two late 2023 sales. While this is way down from a high of $468k in late 2022 (45%), its only down 8% from where it was in January 2022 (with BP) when the thread was started.

Bottom line, and I think we all know this: Doncic has completely crashed since early 2022 and, while 1952 Topps Mantle is down since that time, it has held up monumentally better than Doncic. Conclusion -- Mantle over Doncic 100 out of 100 times.

As for Morant vs Doncic...... I dont care; I only collect dead baseball players who were played before my grandparents were born

There were a few PSA 8 Mantles that went for over 2M back in 2021 and one of these cards sold again last year for 1.1M - ouch!
Some dude bought a PSA 9 in 2021 for over 5M, and based on what happened to the 8, he'd probably lose millions if he sold today.

Another thing we have to look at here is ROI. Even before the pandemic, 99% of us couldn't afford to buy a 52T Mantle. Who had over 100k lying around for a PSA 7? But a Doncic NT or Mahomes NT or Curry NT or LeBron Exquisite RPA, etc. was doable. If you bought any of these modern cards back then for 5k or 10k or even 20k, and you were to sell today, then your ROI is gonna' be much better (compared to buying a PSA 7 Mantle for 120k and selling for double today).

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

The OP compared the early 2022 auction prices of a 2018 Luca Doncic National Treasurers RPA to 99 graded BVG 9.5 to a 1952 Topps Mantle PSA 7. At that time, a Doncic was at auction in PWCC and sitting at $280k before Buyers Premium and a Mantle being sold in the same auction was at $240k before Buyers Premium.

Looking on Ebay, Fanatics Collect (whatever that is) has the same exact Donci card discussed above as available for sale for $85,000. That is literally 25% of what it was at, with Buyer's premium, in January 2022. Wow, 75% reduction, and that's just asking price. My gut is at auction it sells for even less, which frankly, it should as I dont see why its worth more than $!0k.

Meanwhile, the last sale of a PSA 7, 1952 Topps Mantle, and the only 2024 example in VCP, was for $264k, which is the average of two late 2023 sales. While this is way down from a high of $468k in late 2022 (45%), its only down 8% from where it was in January 2022 (with BP) when the thread was started.

Bottom line, and I think we all know this: Doncic has completely crashed since early 2022 and, while 1952 Topps Mantle is down since that time, it has held up monumentally better than Doncic. Conclusion -- Mantle over Doncic 100 out of 100 times.

As for Morant vs Doncic...... I dont care; I only collect dead baseball players who were played before my grandparents were born

I bought an Iverson rookie insert for my son 5 years ago for $133. in 2021 it shot up to over $1000, with one goofy sale on 2/15/21 of $3888. This year the prices have settled down and are in the $400s. The basketball market has been a wild ride.

[packs]

LeBron Topps Chrome rookies have taken a serious hit. They were selling for prices that weren't far off from Jordan for a while. In the last REA auction a 9.5 went for $1,300.

[ullmandds]

i'd be very curious to know production #'s of modern crap. Seems like a neverending supply?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

i'd be very curious to know production #'s of modern crap. Seems like a neverending supply?

Too generalized a statement. Quite a few issues have a relatively low production number, and many are serially numbered. Overall, of course, there is a huge supply.

[samosa4u]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

i'd be very curious to know production #'s of modern crap. Seems like a neverending supply?

There is a never-ending supply of Clemente rookies, Koufax, Aaron, Brown, Unitas, etc. Looks like Topps had their printers running 7/24/365!

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

i'd be very curious to know production #'s of modern crap. Seems like a neverending supply?

Billions and billions of modern crap. Small amounts of modern good stuff.

[packs]

I'm not sure about modern print runs. For a product like 2024 Bowman Draft, the retail price was over $500 and that was if you bought directly from Topps.

That's a big price tag. Breakers will buy them up in large quantities compared to individual collectors, but how much product gets printed when it comes with a price tag like that?

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

Billions and billions of modern crap. Small amounts of modern good stuff.

That is the correct answer!

[rjackson44]

Originally Posted by packs

LeBron Topps Chrome rookies have taken a serious hit. They were selling for prices that weren't far off from Jordan for a while. In the last REA auction a 9.5 went for $1,300.

i sold two lebron psa 10 s chromes 30 k each now ,,,well good luck with that pete ,hope your well

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

I bought an Iverson rookie insert for my son 5 years ago for $133. in 2021 it shot up to over $1000, with one goofy sale on 2/15/21 of $3888. This year the prices have settled down and are in the $400s. The basketball market has been a wild ride.

I bought a bunch of Darius Garland rookie cards at the height of the market for about $300 each. Not my best investment. They dropped to $10 earlier this year, and now with Cleveland in first place they've rallied to $30.

But this is the same market in which I bought a bunch of Leo Messi cards for $20 each and sold them later the same year for $800-$1000 each, so I suppose it worked out alright on balance.

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by darwinbulldog

I bought a bunch of Darius Garland rookie cards at the height of the market for about $300 each. Not my best investment. They dropped to $10 earlier this year, and now with Cleveland in first place they've rallied to $30.



But this is the same market in which I bought a bunch of Leo Messi cards for $20 each and sold them later the same year for $800-$1000 each, so I suppose it worked out alright on balance.

Sure, and that's the other side of it. If you are collecting cards of active players, their prices are going to go all over the place based on how they are playing.

The point I was trying to make is that if you look at the basketball card market since 2021, it looks like it is tanking, but if you look at it over the last 5 years or longer, prices are way up. Iverson has been out of the league for 15 years. His cards go up or down based on the market demand for NBA stars. To pick a different player, Kobe's prices are similar. His Chrome refractor rookie was $6k in 2019, ran all the way up to $118k, and is now at $18.

The reason Doncic cards have gone down is because of the overall market, not because of Doncic specifically.

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[Peter_Spaeth]

Jokic. His numbers, at his age, are unreal.

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Jokic. His numbers, at his age, are unreal.

Agree. The Joker just keeps getting better. For a guy that plays below the rim it is crazy to see how much he controls the game. He could get another MVP this year, although Giannis and Shai are having amazing years as well.

[Balticfox]

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

His Chrome refractor rookie was $6k in 2019, ran all the way up to $118k, and is now at $18.

Not that there's there's any point either in trying to assign rhyme or reason to the flights of speculative fancy that characterize the card "market".