I simply do not understand Modern - Doncic vs Mantle
 

I am bored, sitting ay home, and waiting for football to start. So, to pass the time I am looking at every auction house I can think of. I saw a post here that PWCC extended its monthly premier auction last minute, and so I decided to look at what's in that (still open) auction. Really, there is nothing for me at all, as I counted a total of 3 pre-war cards in the whole auction (including a Magie error); its probably 80%+ new and shiny football and basketball with maybe as much soccer as baseball. Anyway....

Here is what I just do not understand: There is a 2018 National Treasure, Rookie Patch Auto, 7/99, of Luka Doncic, graded BVG 9.5, that is currently sitting at $280,000 before Buyer's premium. There is a also a 1952 Mantle, PSA 7, currently sitting at $240,000 before Buyer's Premium.

Luka Doncic has played in the NBA 3-4 years and has won absolutely nothing. Mickey Mantle is a first-ballot HOFer, who played almost 20 years with the Yankees, appeared in 12 World Series and won 7. He is an icon of his era. This Doncic card comes in at least one other exact same variation, except its numbered to 20; I am sure that same pic is on many other Doncic cards. The 1952 Mantle is likely one of the top 3 most iconic sports cards of all time. Not to mention, there are only 75 non-qualified PSA 7 Mantles, with only 56 non-qualified graded higher (close to the 110 of the Doncic RPAs)

How/why is a 2018 card of Luka Doncic worth over $50k more (with BP) than a 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle PSA 7???!!!

I get I am a fossil, and I collect cards of dead guys that many young people dont care about, in a sport becoming less popular with each generation. But I am not talking about an E92 Eddie Collins or even a T204 Walter Johnson. I am talking about a PSA 7, 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle. I simply do not understand and cant help thinking/knowing that the winner of this Doncic (and many similar cards) will take a bath unless he/she flips it ASAP (and I pity the person holding the card when the bottom drops out)

Don't try to think like a millennial social media apps cryptocurrency nouveau riche tshirt wearing guy with 50 pairs of sneakers, you'll never get it.

I don't understand it either, other than to say it will probably all end badly for people paying that kind of money for contrived scarcity. I dabble in modern for sports teams and players I like, but at a reasonable level.

Just a pee-pee measuring contest among the new generation of investor-collectors. Besides, it's PWCC. A lot of collectors won't even deal with them and I am guessing that many of them are into vintage and don't trust anything PWCC sells as not having been doctored.

Most of us are in the same fossilize boat as you and most of us are in the similar vintage collecting universe.

We appreciate the history of the game and the cards we collect.

Millennial’s and new money put money in the people and subjects they know and do not necessarily know or appreciate the past.

So their purchases will be modern and of those that are known/famous to them

Sticking with the older stuff here--Much better than stocking up on Joe Burrow & Crappiolo, Josh Allen, Stafford Rc's...while the Mahomoes & Brady been on a tear.

I think you answered your own question. That, and we're in a bubble right now that has led to all kinds of crazy valuations, not just in cards. Maybe there is an end to it looming; the meme stocks from 2020-21 have been getting hammered these past few months. Or maybe not; I've given up trying to time the market.

Because someone might pay more for it...someday. greater fool theory in action

Do you think it's going to be like the junk wax of the 90's? Everyone was so sure the price was always going to go up but they got left holding the bag.

Just a few weeks ago I was discussing this very subject with another board member.

This Ruth sold at auction in December for far less than what many Lebron James rookie cards are selling for at the moment.

Just let that sink in for a bit! :eek:

<p align="center"><img src="https://photos.imageevent.com/threetwocount/threetwocount/websize/1916-m101-4-sporting-news-babe-ruth-psa-3%20_1_.webp"></p>

If the Chiefs Bills game is really good tonight like last nights Packers 49’ers this Auction Might Get Extended till Monday, why not, it’s ok to do.

It's really pretty simple - demand. Modern basketball has a worldwide audience to a level that vintage baseball doesn't.

I get that, and I could almost understand it if it was a 1986 fleer Jordan psa 10 or THE top Lebron or Kobe card. But this is Luka f-ing Doncic. This guy has done nothing. He has won nothing. He has had barely more than a cup of coffee in the NBA. In fact, the Doncic card I mention in my first post is currently at about what 1986 Fleer Jordan PSA 10s have been selling for, on average, over the past year (according to VCP). So ignore the comparison to mantle (or Ruth)- why is a Luca Doncic for selling the same as a Jordan?!

Its just pure speculation and day trading. Jordan can't really do anything now to make his cards more desirable and popular. If Doncic wins an MVP or a title, people can flip the cards and make a profit.

If people looked at actual reality, they'd realize that Doncic has basically no chance to be considered better than Jordan. So his card price ceiling should realistically be whatever an '86 Fleer Jordan PSA 10 is worth. You can argue that if he has cards with a lower POP, like an NT RPA numbered to 99 or lower, I can see a PSA 10 selling for more than an '86 Fleer MJ PSA 10. But that is a small handful of very specific cards, and that assumes Doncic goes on to have a career that puts him in the discussion for best ever. Which is kind of crazy, given that Lebron is currently still playing, is a far superior player to Doncic, and already has a massive trophy case/list of career accomplishments, and some people dont even put him on Jordan's level.

Pure daytrading and speculation. When all of the sneakerheads leave the hobby migrate to NFTs or whatever comes after NFTs, I think we'll see the hobby return to something a little bit more sane. Lots of people are gonna lose a lot of money in the process

I also don't understand Doncic cards. At least LeBron and Serena are clearly at the top, or near the top of the historical greats list. Watching him play, to me, he is somewhere below James Harden in skill level. He's the second best player on a championship team, i.e., like KD and Harden.

On basketball-reference, they have a stat called "similarity scores" through 3 seasons. Here are the names they compare him with...

Mo Cheeks
Calvin Murphy
John Logan
Glen Combs
Allen Iverson
James Harden
Otis Birdsong
Eddie Jones
Louie Dampier
Bob Davies

I'm puzzled by this as well. Doncic is one of the most overrated, overhyped players in the game right now.

BTW- I “almost” could understand if it was Jordan, but even that I really don’t even understand how that is more (even close) to a 52 mantle psa 7, considering there are a zillion 1986 fleer Jordan’s, most in high to super-high grades. And there is zero reason a Jordan in any condition- even one that smells like his farts- should trade for than one of the 100+/- babe Ruth rookies, in any condition

You're not alone. Nearly all the members of this board, even the twenty-somethings, are fossils.

I, for one, am proud (and glad) to be a fossil. While the "millennial social media apps cryptocurrency nouveau riche tshirt wearing guy with 50 pairs of sneakers" types have been buying modern the past two years, I have been acquiring Mantles and T206 HOFers. Had the newcomers targeted vintage instead of modern, my collection might have remained fairly static during 2020-21.

So, let them pay exorbitant prices for the Golden Ticket Rainbow Shimmer Ultrafractor of what's-his-name. Meanwhile, I'll be paying (slightly) less ridiculous prices for "pictures of long dead sporting men."

Credit to Peter Spaeth and Steven Finley for the quotes above

The thing with Jordan is that he is the greatest, bar none, basketball player of all time, there's no denying it. There is no one on the horizon to take his legendary place. And basketball is much bigger than baseball around the world. So to me, his rookie cards will forever maintain their value, regardless of how many are out there.

Supply is only half the equation.

Johnny, I think today is going to be wild with 2 Championships on the line and for for those of us with skin in the game, the REA closing tonight. I can see myself stumbling between tv and office to check bids. Should be wild. I think even though it one of their sub prime auctions the bidding is going to be nuts.
And when we talk about dead fossils, let's not forget a very much alive former player dear to our collecting hearts: Willie Mays.

Agree ! Willie Mays is one of my favorites to collect.

I’m looking for a 53 Topps PSA 8 I’ve seen the 7’s on eBay and HA don’t care for them.

Nothing wrong with owning a "few" pairs of sneakers.:D

I have called modern cards a game of hot potato for a long time.

Wonder how much that Yasiel Puig superfractor is worth now?

Wait..but .it was a 1/1... with 164 different variations

Haha he's talking about you Octavio!

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He's 22. He's done - a lot - more in the NBA than Jordan had at a similar age. It took Jordan 7 seasons to win a title but he was still incredibly popular before that.

I get it - his cards are probably overpriced but the demand is clearly there.

Why is anything worth what it is, especially cardboard that is easily faked, even encapsulated with a bar code? I damn sure wouldn't base my portfolio on cards unless I planned to cash out before all this stuff crashes.

Do not get it either
 

In the context of today’s stock market tech valuations, NFT’s, crypto, I understand how Donik and the like sell for astronomical valuations. Ruth will always be valuable and most of these modern created rarities will collapse. To the modern collectors these cards are worth it, but having seen numerous bubbles in my 67 years this sure looks like one. Print a rookie card, paste a piece of a uniform and an autograph and suddenly it is a million dollar card? I am sure there are people out there who can justify it as the new way of collecting. To me it spells B-U-B-B-L-E.

Do not get it either
 

In the context of today’s stock market tech valuations, NFT’s, crypto, I understand how Donic and the like sell for astronomical valuations. Ruth will always be valuable and most of these modern created rarities will collapse. To the modern collectors these cards are worth it, but having seen numerous bubbles in my 67 years this sure looks like one. Print a rookie card, paste a piece of a uniform and an autograph and suddenly it is a million dollar card? I am sure there are people out there who can justify it as the new way of collecting. To me it spells B-U-B-B-L-E.

Exactly, next year how many new 1/1 Luca Donic auto/GU cards will they turn out? And the year after that, and the year after that, and so on.

Depends. Signed by him or Lulu?

They are not making any more Doncic rookie cards, Bob.

Buying cards of active players is definitely speculative and I guess Luka cards could have a "bubble" if his career doesn't pan out. But overall the basketball card market is pretty solid, the game is popular and the fanbase is global and growing.



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Aaahhh, didn't realize they were talking only about a rookie card. Still makes no sense for that kind of price though.

+1

Nice! The Rainbow Shimmer is my favorite variation too.
The extra sparkle means more $$.

;)

Long-term value versus short-term value

Naw. Much better to spend exorbitant amounts on 100-year-old cards of what's-his-name because his name is spelled wrong.

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Basketball has been an absolutely brutal market for much of the year. Prices are down 50% or more since they peaked in 2020. Yet the cards that have held their gains the best are the older superstars: Russell, Chamberlain, Alcindor, etc. I think the same will be true of other sports' cards.

One thing that hasn't been discussed are the altered and counterfeit modern cards (and holders). I think we already have experienced a wave of modern card alteration that the TPGs of choice (PSA, Beckett) for modern just do not do a good job of detecting, and we are at the start of the great wave of modern card counterfeiting. Some of the reprints of old-tech modern RCs (like 86 Fleer Jordan) are really, really good and are hard to detect unless you know exactly what to look for.

There's also the question of whether any of these buyers are in it for more than a short term gain or bragging rights among people who are dabbling in the hobby and will readily move on to vintage game cartridges or whatever is the next thing to catch their fancy. Does anyone really think that a Luka Doncic card will inspire the same "from my cold, dead hand" collector mentality as a Ruth or Gehrig RC?

The biggest issue I have with modern is that LeBron James, Tom Brady and Mike Trout are unicorns--Wally Joyner, Kevin Maas and Gregg Jefferies are the norm--but the modern RCs are priced within a matter of weeks as if every prospect is a James or Brady level talent. They are also abundant in top grades, as we see with the Jordan RC, and very volatile; just ask the schmucks who paid over $700K for that card and watched prices drop by 50% in a few months. Buying and selling modern seems like a game of speculative hot potato and I believe that whoever is left with the card at the end is gonna get burned. Vintage has definitely taken some major price leaps forward in the last several months but relative to modern seems a better deal. A Foxx RC sells for a fraction of a Doncic RC? W.T.F.

Height of insanity.

https://goldin.co/item/2020-bowman-c...asson-dom5w961

https://yanksgoyard.com/2022/01/23/y...ight-comments/

Yep. I would bet there are quite a few disappointed Zion Williamson (aka Greg Oden 2.0) "investors" out there atm...

Like what?

I just went and had a look at the stats, and he's not really even close.
Jordan led the league in points two of his first three years.
Led in ppg his third year.

And one of those years was nowhere near complete. Injuries? Maybe, I forget.

Doncic hasn't even cleared 3000 points in any of his three years.

Steals, Jordan was around 200/year
Doncic hasn't even reached 100/ year


That's not exactly the sort of dominance that makes a 300K gamble more than a very long shot

Modern cards are a whole lot more volatile because the players' stories are not written yet. Looking at individual cards the gains are higher and the losses too. I think for modern you need to look at a basket of cards and see how the value in total has moved over time. Otherwise it's hard to get a true picture.

For example, 10 years ago I bought two rookie cards for $75 each, one Amare Stoudemire and one Yao Ming. Amare is now worth $25 while Yao just sold for $900. These are two extremes but overall I would guess that basketball card values have increased about 5 times in the last 10 years. A little bit better than baseball maybe, but not much.

But I am more confident in the basketball card market than baseball. Basketball has a global fanbase, with total fans 2-4 times baseball. The average basketball fan is much younger than baseball, and basketball popularity has been increasing over the last several years as baseball popularity has declined.

I think the whole sports card market could go through a correction as part of an overall economic pullback, but I really don't see basketball on the leading edge of it.

I hope this doesn't come out sounding wrong, but is there perhaps a bit of the Great White Hope thing underlying some of his popularity?

https://theshadowleague.com/luka-don...n-waiting-for/

Anyone who's collected for decades is keenly aware of the history of fleetingly hot prospect and rookie cards. Pete Incavilia, Eric Davis, Daryl Strawberry, Joe Charmineau, Ki-Jana Carter.

I hope these folks know their history.

Absolutely it helps his popularity. Along with Jokic two of the NBA's top players are now European.

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Haven't Jokic and Doncic always been European?

But these guys at least were in the major leagues. People are paying $150,000 for a Jasson Dominguez card, who is on the bottom rung of professional baseball. Yikes.

Hah. Actually there are 3, Giannis Antetokounmpo was born and raised in Greece. The point is the diversity is good for the game, it gives fans more to relate to.

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Oh yeah, I agree. I'd probably mention Joel Embiid in that conversation too. (Not European but Int'l - raised in Cameroon)