Card Shows: Tech as a servant or master?

[Exhibitman]

I did a column on this:

https://adamstevenwarshaw.substack.c...ayagot?r=ff7k7

A pertinent excerpt:

The comparison shoppers, or as I call them, the comp bandits...you know them, the guys who search their phones and announce that an example the card you have ticketed at $50 sold a month ago for $40. I run into this all the time and my answer is usually "that's very interesting, thanks for the information. I think you should buy it on eBay." Gets some real head-scratching in response, so let me dig into it.

With rare exceptions, a comp bandit is deluding himself if he thinks he is educating me on price. I already know what my items are worth, which is how I priced them—and I price everything I put on my table. ...

Another consideration is how the comp has to be adjusted for context. The comp bandits don't think about what an eBay comp represents. A sale online and in person are not the same, especially in lower priced cards. The financial reality is that most buyers at a show are already enjoying a substantial discount over the online cost to them simply by taking shipping out of the equation and having sales tax folded into the price, so the online comp is more of an apples to oranges comparison. When I price cards for sale, I check comps on eBay and I factor in the shipping cost and taxes as a component of sale. A $1 card with a $4 shipping cost is really a $5 card, not a $1 card, so coming at me with a $1 comp and demanding the card for a buck is not a fair or honest comparison. I prefer to think it happens because a substantial majority of collectors simply forget the shipping costs and sales taxes when looking at an online price, especially if the data scraping app they are using doesn’t add shipping to the costs, but that’s just me, lover of humanity (insert roll-eyes emoji here).

[x2drich2000]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Another consideration is how the comp has to be adjusted for context. The comp bandits don't think about what an eBay comp represents. A sale online and in person are not the same, especially in lower priced cards. The financial reality is that most buyers at a show are already enjoying a substantial discount over the online cost to them simply by taking shipping out of the equation and having sales tax folded into the price, so the online comp is more of an apples to oranges comparison. When I price cards for sale, I check comps on eBay and I factor in the shipping cost and taxes as a component of sale. A $1 card with a $4 shipping cost is really a $5 card, not a $1 card, so coming at me with a $1 comp and demanding the card for a buck is not a fair or honest comparison. I prefer to think it happens because a substantial majority of collectors simply forget the shipping costs and sales taxes when looking at an online price, especially if the data scraping app they are using doesn’t add shipping to the costs, but that’s just me, lover of humanity (insert roll-eyes emoji here).

Adam, I half agree with your analysis, but you have to also look at it the other way around as well. Why would the $1 offer be unfair or dishonest? That $1 card with $4 shipping, as a seller, you are paying $4 to ship to the customer, Ebay/Paypal are taking their fee, and the tax is just going to the state not to you. As a result, on the $5 online sale, the seller is netting less than $1. That $1 offer nets the seller more than than selling it online. The key is finding that happy medium where both the seller and the buyer are coming out better, Unfortunately, my experience is that most seller and buyers want the whole savings their way rather than working on something in the middle.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by x2drich2000

Adam, I half agree with your analysis, but you have to also look at it the other way around as well. Why would the $1 offer be unfair or dishonest? That $1 card with $4 shipping, as a seller, you are paying $4 to ship to the customer, Ebay/Paypal are taking their fee, and the tax is just going to the state not to you. As a result, on the $5 online sale, the seller is netting less than $1. That $1 offer nets the seller more than than selling it online. The key is finding that happy medium where both the seller and the buyer are coming out better, Unfortunately, my experience is that most seller and buyers want the whole savings their way rather than working on something in the middle.

I don't disagree with a happy medium but that is not how the comp bandits roll. They want it for the eBay price, period. Also, in a state with sales tax eBay makes the buyer pay it, but at a show buyers do not expect sellers to whip out the calculators and charge the sales tax.

You are also missing the context. Costs of sale on eBay are dramatically different than cost of sales at card shows.

Table fees at the Anaheim show last summer were $600 for an eight-foot table. The host convention hotel room rate for three nights is a total of $597, plus $90 to park, $45 for internet access, and 20% tourist taxes. My $597 stay becomes an $880 stay (rounded). Add to that at least another $50 a day to eat, and my travel cost amounts to $1,030. That's $1,630 just to be there and set up. Say I did a really good job of buying and I make 50% for each card I sell. The first $3,260 in gross sales is my break-even point. But wait, I also have to pay sales taxes, pushing my break-even point to about $3500. That’s the risk I take when I set up. Every sale goes towards covering that nut.

On eBay, I incur no costs unless and until an item sells, other than $300 a year for the storefront. The buyer also pays the shipping, the sales taxes, and a handling fee I add to every listing to cover my materials and the final value fees I have to pay on the shipping cost and the sales taxes (because eBay has turned those into profit centers too). My total overhead for eBay averages about 15% of sales.

If you want card shows to exist, and if you want sellers to offer cards for all budgets, you will pay more for an item than on eBay because of the sunk cost overhead that is non-existent on eBay. I run a pickers' table; i serve the middle-class collecting community. My customers are not the ones buying three-four-five figure cards in slabs. I sell a lot but I don't sell much that costs over $100 per card. A $2,000 day is a good gross for me. If I do $5-$6K at a four-day show, that's solid. Given the math, I can list a modestly-priced card on eBay at rock bottom prices but when you ask me to sell a card for the eBay price at a show, you are literally making it financially impossible for me to set up because you are cutting out the profit I need to pay overhead. If I do that, I might as well just skip it or put out expensive slabs only.

[BillyCoxDodgers3B]

Adam,

As someone whose thought process I have usually found myself in agreement with, I do wonder if you will ultimately make the decision to not do shows. It feels as if the cons outweigh the pros. They certainly do for me, hence why I've been out of the show game forever.

What would be missed if you stopped? Obviously, the chance to buy/trade is the big thing. Making good, old fashioned face-to-face contacts would be #2. Doing bulkier deals which are easy in person but sometimes rendered moot when factoring in shipping cost have to be in there as well. Other than these positive factors, is there enough reason to sustain setting up? Do these good things happen with the needed amount of frequency? Your outlay and tension time are both tremendous in my mind. The dollar amount of product that has to be moved to pay for your trip is too much for me to fathom in this era where everything can be done from home if that's more preferable.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by BillyCoxDodgers3B

Adam,

As someone whose thought process I have usually found myself in agreement with, I do wonder if you will ultimately make the decision to not do shows. It feels as if the cons outweigh the pros. They certainly do for me, hence why I've been out of the show game forever.

What would be missed if you stopped? Obviously, the chance to buy/trade is the big thing. Making good, old fashioned face-to-face contacts would be #2. Doing bulkier deals which are easy in person but sometimes rendered moot when factoring in shipping cost have to be in there as well. Other than these positive factors, is there enough reason to sustain setting up? Do these good things happen with the needed amount of frequency? Your outlay and tension time are both tremendous in my mind. The dollar amount of product that has to be moved to pay for your trip is too much for me to fathom in this era where everything can be done from home if that's more preferable.

I've actually come to that conclusion and stopped setting up at shows I have to travel and stay in hotels to attend, partially because of increasing security concerns but also because eBay selling is so much more profitable. The time suckage for a show is huge. A weekend show takes me 4 days minimum to prep, attend and break down. Four days and I am looking at nearly a week of my time. I can list hundreds of cards on eBay in that same period.

I will still do local shows where my only cost is the table fee and maybe parking. There is some added benefit to setting up at a show, like making buys and trades, but making it up on buys has become increasingly difficult because of the ease of online selling and the trade nights. The quality Saturday walk-ins at shows go to the trade night instead, where they set up as dealers with no overhead costs. I've noticed that all of my walk-in buys in the last several shows have been on Sunday, after the trade night. I am tempted to put my thesis to the test. Next show I can make in Pasadena, I will not set up, I will take my stuff to the trade night and sell there. For free. My hunch is that I will make more money doing that, net net net, than inside the show.

[BillyCoxDodgers3B]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I've actually decided to put that to the test. Next show I can make in Pasadena, I will not set up, I will take my stuff to the trade night and sell there. For free.

Good call. I'm amazed every show promoter hasn't wised up and put the k-k-k-kibosh on this type of event.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by BillyCoxDodgers3B

Good call. I'm amazed every show promoter hasn't wised up and put the k-k-k-kibosh on this type of event.

Promoters believe that trade nights and similar sideshow events drive traffic. I am not sure that is true, but as long as tables sell out, the promoter can focus on increasing traffic (admissions) without worrying about the dealers. Every dealer setting up at trade night or in the hallways or even in the food court at the National (as was the case in Cleveland) represents a paid admission. I don't know how many of them would have stayed home but for the trade night (maybe none), but if the dealers buy all the tables despite the parasitic card show/trade night, there is no downside for the promoters to allow it. Dealers, believe it or not, have no leverage to negotiate with a promoter if the shows sell out or if there is a waitlist. I am curious to see whether that changes when there is an actual recession and the hobby as a whole contracts and dealers drop out of shows. I recall in prior periods being offered discounted tables and even free autograph tickets for the guests to get me to take a table.

[Leon]

I generally don't collect, or sell, "average for the grade" cards, so comps rarely matter to me. And I smile when they start pulling the "comp" thing, as I get to have some fun. If selling, I might say, show me a nicer one for less price. They won't be able to, usually. I collect cards not flips.

[BillyCoxDodgers3B]

Originally Posted by Leon

If selling, I might say, show me a nicer one for less price. They won't be able to, usually. I collect cards not flips.

To me, that's the whole headache right there. You're going to be met with "buy the number, not the card" types who will turn into brick walls when you try to reason with them in the way you mention.

I envision a mostly younger crowd who entered the vintage field after being indoctrinated in the wheeling and dealing of modern material within the last few years. Glad you don't take it too seriously!

[carlsonjok]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

You are also missing the context. Costs of sale on eBay are dramatically different than cost of sales at card shows.

Table fees at the Anaheim show last summer were $600 for an eight-foot table. The host convention hotel room rate for three nights is a total of $597, plus $90 to park, $45 for internet access, and 20% tourist taxes. My $597 stay becomes an $880 stay (rounded). Add to that at least another $50 a day to eat, and my travel cost amounts to $1,030. That's $1,630 just to be there and set up. Say I did a really good job of buying and I make 50% for each card I sell. The first $3,260 in gross sales is my break-even point. But wait, I also have to pay sales taxes, pushing my break-even point to about $3500. That’s the risk I take when I set up. Every sale goes towards covering that nut.

I understand what you are saying, and I'm not suggesting you sell at a loss, but this seems to me to be a corollary to much-derided seller argument that "I have this much into the card." The main difference is that the latter is COGS while the former is SGA.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by carlsonjok

I understand what you are saying, and I'm not suggesting you sell at a loss, but this seems to me to be a corollary to much-derided seller argument that "I have this much into the card." The main difference is that the latter is COGS while the former is SGA.

Not exactly. I am suggesting that a card show and eBay are different experiences and you cannot expect to use one the same way as the other because the seller's finances are different for each. It is simply not realistic to equate one with the other. If you want to pay eBay prices, stay home and buy the card on eBay. If you want shows to exist, you have to acknowledge that the financial calculus is completely different. Putting it in a slightly different context, if you want to eat a hot dog in New York City, you can get one from a cart on the sidewalk at one price or you can go into a deli and pay significantly more. No one at the deli whines that they are paying $14 for a $4 hot dog because eating at a table in a restaurant is not the same as eating while standing in the gutter.

If your sole concern is price, the better choice is to never go to a show. Why pay parking, admission and perhaps travel costs? Just buy it all online. We go because there are other benefits to going, like the chance to look over the cards in person, immediate delivery, etc. Apples and oranges.

[Eric72]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

...When I price cards for sale, I check comps on eBay and I factor in the shipping cost and taxes as a component of sale...

I do the same thing, even though I'm usually on the buying side.

I collect mostly T206 and vintage Topps cards. There are plenty of sales just on eBay for these. In other words, it's very easy to find "comps" for the stuff I buy at shows.

When creating my "want list" in advance of the show, I use Excel. I use Terapeak (eBay store tool) and chart the last 10 sales of each item. There are 3 columns:

1. The price a card has sold for
2. Shipping
3. Sales tax for my state

The total is what it would have cost me out-of-pocket to purchase that item.

I'll average the recent sales...and that's my "comp" for the card.