Card Shows: Tech as a servant or master?
 

Technology is a useful servant but a dangerous master.” -Christian Louis Lange

What are thoughts (dealer/vendor and buyer/show attendee perspectives) on VCP tech use at live shows? Good, bad, or indifferent?

When deals were going down at the GBSCC show, I observed every dealer use VCP and took a lot of time to search for averages and lowest available comps of cards in same grade (despite in some cases dismal condition of those referenced in VCP, in comparison to a same grade card of better condition attempted to be sold or traded to the dealer by show attendee). Dealers reduced that lowest comp by 15-25% or even turned the attendee’s walk up card away completely since not enough margin in it. Great for the dealer to pay the least possible money for the best possible ROI.

Similarly, show attendees looking to sell or trade with dealers utilize VCP to rationalize why their card deserves a certain amount of money or trade value based on trending or same grade/same condition comps. Great for the show attendee who otherwise may not have had a clue about their card’s value.

However, for both stakeholders further along the card value maturity curve, antidotally dealer’s listed card prices for top-notch vintage are still aligned to the 2021-2023 Covid-boom, causing VCP to create an impasse (unstoppable force meet immovable object) and impediment to a square and expedient deal.

So has VCP tech been a useful servant or a master?

You're probably right that there's a bit of an impasse. I left GBSCC after an hour because I saw many of the cards I saw last year and the year before at the same or higher prices.

Even when there are cards that are priced to move, it seems like the dealers cannibalize each other's inventory. I had my eye on a particular slabbed Cracker Jack card that was at one GBSCC table last year, and I was close to pulling the trigger but held off. This year, the same card was at a different dealer's table but was marked up about 45%. I don't know if they're all consigning to each other, but it feels like the circle is getting smaller.

What is the alternative? A notebook with pricing? Going off memory?

A year is a VERY long time…for cards to be bought and sold and for pricing to change…

As a preface, I mainly collect T206 and vintage Topps cards. There is plenty of pricing info available on these.

Having said this, here's my card show attendee (buyer) perspective:

I do my research before going to the show. For the most part, while I'm there, my phone stays in my pocket.

I have a want list with me. The prices I'm willing to pay are on that list. If I bring cards to sell or trade, they're already priced.

My recent (2020s) card show experience has been confined to the Philly Show. It's a large regional show with lots of dealer tables. I'd rather not waste time "looking up comps" during the show, especially since I can do that in advance. The show is too big to waste time doing something I could have done before I got there.

It's the buyer's analog to dealers who put price stickers on their cards. Quick and easy.,

Every post needs a card…here are a few Mickeys (not Mantle) I pick up at the GBSCC show. I’m sure I paid up on them, but was happy to bring home some vintage Disney…

Sure, but this card (and most of the cards displayed at GBSCC) have also been listed in Facebook groups, Instagram, etc. in the interim. The price hike didn't happen organically due to the passage of time and an increase in demand.

To be clear, I don't have any problem with flipping or arbitrage. My only point is that buyers and sellers have access to the same information, and it's going to be harder for sellers to get Y when the buyer saw it for X just yesterday.

That's not an issue for the super-high-end investors with ultra-rare cards that rarely change hands, but it is a factor when selling cards that pop up frequently.

How is it different from the 80's and 90's, when people walked around shows with a Beckett or Tuff Stuff (or had one with them behind the table for dealers)?

I don’t think dealers were picking the lowest purchase price from the past 36 issues of Beckett, or pricing the sale of their cards from the most expensive issue either…tech has enabled a much further reaching view to pick from, given VCP averages over a significant time horizon and makes data aggregation more accessible.

Coming soon to a new Collectorisms thread near you...

Phone Value - the updated, modernized version of “book value.”

I’m not looking up cards that I am inquiring to buy & I don’t expect a dealer to spend 2-3 minutes looking up comps. You look it up, I’m no longer interested. Quote me an immediate price, I might buy it even if you’re on the high side.

If I even hear the word "comp", there is no transaction happening. Glad I'm in a part of the hobby where its usage is not yet as prevalent as it is with cards.

Old baseball cards are not auto parts. Comps are a useful piece of information, sure, but more relevant are how long a potential buyer has been looking and how much they're willing to pay. On the other end, the dealer has to think about how long it will take to replace that card and for how much. When the buyer and seller have the same idea as to the card's value at that moment, you'll have a deal, which might have little to do with previous "comps" in one direction or the other.

+1 - Well said.

I’m not clear how looking up actual sales of an item when considering a deal on that item is making tech ones master. Seems like a pretty reasonable thing common sense thing to do. I would never object to someone using a valid dataset to check pricing. What is wrong with using data?

The new generation just takes what they've paid and adds 300% thinking someone doesn't know how to check the last sales. Should end well

How should someone price their cards?

As noted, I'm not into cards. Card guys are unfortunately stuck with being badgered by an endless chorus of "comps".

It's not the usage of comparable sales that bothers me as much as it is the term "comps". That's just me being crotchety!

Then again, it must be very difficult to accurately use comparables because most cards are fairly unique. As we discuss so often, one 3 is completely different from another 3. Sometimes, both grades are accurate, but for completely different reasons. Other times, the number grades make no sense when the two cards are placed side by side.

As Hank noted, and I've often thought to myself, we're not talking about auto parts or something where every comparable sale is of exactly the same product in a uniform condition. Therefore, this practice I'm reading about where people are searching for the lowest "comp" and trying to obtain the card for said price can't be much fun for those on the selling end. It's just a new way of, "How far can we make this seller bend over?". How much hair-splitting is involved beyond finding the lowest "comp"? "Well, I'd say this card is 16% nicer than that 3, and 6% less attractive than this other 3...These other ones sold at the height of the Pandemic Boom, so..."

Remember, if you can look at VCP information, weed out the outliers and adjust for differences in the cards and changes in the market, others can too. It's just a tool. I collect comic books and would love to have a service as good as VCP that covers comic sales.

In all seriousness, if it is a rare card, or a very valuable card, then both the seller & buyer are in the right to do a little on site research. I got a little frustrated a couple weeks ago when I was hoping to buy a beat to heck 62 Bob Gibson for my 1962 set that I am looking to complete with cards in vg- poor condition. The Gibson had paper loss from being taped and wear on top of that. The card was not graded. Five minutes later I get quoted a price on what the average PSA 1 sells for. In my opinion that’s a case of technology getting in the way. Kinda like using a GPS when you should know where you’re going.

What a superb analogy. What else should we expect from today's society? Blindly relying on technology when the answer is already known.

I try my best not to be one of those people. Today, just to prove my point, I was one of them on purpose. I had to drive across my city. I already knew the fastest way to go and how long it should take on a Saturday. Google Maps gave me a completely different way, one which anybody in this town would realize was ridiculous. It also claimed to shave four minutes off of the way I would have taken. I took the Google-recommended way. It was 18 minutes longer than they claimed it would be. No big surprise there, but I wanted to see just how wrong they truly were.

I did a column on this:

https://adamstevenwarshaw.substack.c...ayagot?r=ff7k7

A pertinent excerpt:

The comparison shoppers, or as I call them, the comp bandits...you know them, the guys who search their phones and announce that an example the card you have ticketed at $50 sold a month ago for $40. I run into this all the time and my answer is usually "that's very interesting, thanks for the information. I think you should buy it on eBay." Gets some real head-scratching in response, so let me dig into it.

With rare exceptions, a comp bandit is deluding himself if he thinks he is educating me on price. I already know what my items are worth, which is how I priced them—and I price everything I put on my table. ...

Another consideration is how the comp has to be adjusted for context. The comp bandits don't think about what an eBay comp represents. A sale online and in person are not the same, especially in lower priced cards. The financial reality is that most buyers at a show are already enjoying a substantial discount over the online cost to them simply by taking shipping out of the equation and having sales tax folded into the price, so the online comp is more of an apples to oranges comparison. When I price cards for sale, I check comps on eBay and I factor in the shipping cost and taxes as a component of sale. A $1 card with a $4 shipping cost is really a $5 card, not a $1 card, so coming at me with a $1 comp and demanding the card for a buck is not a fair or honest comparison. I prefer to think it happens because a substantial majority of collectors simply forget the shipping costs and sales taxes when looking at an online price, especially if the data scraping app they are using doesn’t add shipping to the costs, but that’s just me, lover of humanity (insert roll-eyes emoji here).

Card Shows: Tech as a servant or master?
 

I am set up at the Shriners show this weekend helping a friend at his booth.

Every… single… card… is being looked up on the spot by potential buyers.

Had one buyer pull 3 stacks of Tom Brady graded cards (15-20 cards in total).

He looked up every one, and along the way made comments about how things were high.

He then offered $175 on a BGS 9 where the last raw one went for $310.

He told me, to my face, the last one did $190

Alright, game on.

I pull the card, look it up on CardLadder, and find the raw sale from July at $310.

The card is numbered to 25 and hasn’t sold since July.

He said, “as a COURTESY, that seller shills their auctions”

We pulled the cards back and put them back in the case.

I could not find the $190 sale. Maybe the last BGS 9 sold for that years ago but who knows.

I do not know what is in the water in Massachusetts, but that is about as dumb of an interaction I’ve ever had in cards.

Great show though overall. Having a ton of fun.

Adam, I half agree with your analysis, but you have to also look at it the other way around as well. Why would the $1 offer be unfair or dishonest? That $1 card with $4 shipping, as a seller, you are paying $4 to ship to the customer, Ebay/Paypal are taking their fee, and the tax is just going to the state not to you. As a result, on the $5 online sale, the seller is netting less than $1. That $1 offer nets the seller more than than selling it online. The key is finding that happy medium where both the seller and the buyer are coming out better, Unfortunately, my experience is that most seller and buyers want the whole savings their way rather than working on something in the middle.

I don't disagree with a happy medium but that is not how the comp bandits roll. They want it for the eBay price, period. Also, in a state with sales tax eBay makes the buyer pay it, but at a show buyers do not expect sellers to whip out the calculators and charge the sales tax.

You are also missing the context. Costs of sale on eBay are dramatically different than cost of sales at card shows.

Table fees at the Anaheim show last summer were $600 for an eight-foot table. The host convention hotel room rate for three nights is a total of $597, plus $90 to park, $45 for internet access, and 20% tourist taxes. My $597 stay becomes an $880 stay (rounded). Add to that at least another $50 a day to eat, and my travel cost amounts to $1,030. That's $1,630 just to be there and set up. Say I did a really good job of buying and I make 50% for each card I sell. The first $3,260 in gross sales is my break-even point. But wait, I also have to pay sales taxes, pushing my break-even point to about $3500. That’s the risk I take when I set up. Every sale goes towards covering that nut.

On eBay, I incur no costs unless and until an item sells, other than $300 a year for the storefront. The buyer also pays the shipping, the sales taxes, and a handling fee I add to every listing to cover my materials and the final value fees I have to pay on the shipping cost and the sales taxes (because eBay has turned those into profit centers too). My total overhead for eBay averages about 15% of sales.

If you want card shows to exist, and if you want sellers to offer cards for all budgets, you will pay more for an item than on eBay because of the sunk cost overhead that is non-existent on eBay. I run a pickers' table; i serve the middle-class collecting community. My customers are not the ones buying three-four-five figure cards in slabs. I sell a lot but I don't sell much that costs over $100 per card. A $2,000 day is a good gross for me. If I do $5-$6K at a four-day show, that's solid. Given the math, I can list a modestly-priced card on eBay at rock bottom prices but when you ask me to sell a card for the eBay price at a show, you are literally making it financially impossible for me to set up because you are cutting out the profit I need to pay overhead. If I do that, I might as well just skip it or put out expensive slabs only.

Adam,

As someone whose thought process I have usually found myself in agreement with, I do wonder if you will ultimately make the decision to not do shows. It feels as if the cons outweigh the pros. They certainly do for me, hence why I've been out of the show game forever.

What would be missed if you stopped? Obviously, the chance to buy/trade is the big thing. Making good, old fashioned face-to-face contacts would be #2. Doing bulkier deals which are easy in person but sometimes rendered moot when factoring in shipping cost have to be in there as well. Other than these positive factors, is there enough reason to sustain setting up? Do these good things happen with the needed amount of frequency? Your outlay and tension time are both tremendous in my mind. The dollar amount of product that has to be moved to pay for your trip is too much for me to fathom in this era where everything can be done from home if that's more preferable.

I generally don't collect, or sell, "average for the grade" cards, so comps rarely matter to me. And I smile when they start pulling the "comp" thing, as I get to have some fun. If selling, I might say, show me a nicer one for less price. They won't be able to, usually. I collect cards not flips.

My thoughts exactly
 

When I go to a show, I don't care what the dealer says or looks up or claims, only what the price is. I don't counter claim, or make a lower offer, just buy the card or not depending on how I feel at the moment or judge my ability to find a better copy sometime soon.

To me, that's the whole headache right there. You're going to be met with "buy the number, not the card" types who will turn into brick walls when you try to reason with them in the way you mention.

I envision a mostly younger crowd who entered the vintage field after being indoctrinated in the wheeling and dealing of modern material within the last few years. Glad you don't take it too seriously! :)

I've actually come to that conclusion and stopped setting up at shows I have to travel and stay in hotels to attend, partially because of increasing security concerns but also because eBay selling is so much more profitable. The time suckage for a show is huge. A weekend show takes me 4 days minimum to prep, attend and break down. Four days and I am looking at nearly a week of my time. I can list hundreds of cards on eBay in that same period.

I will still do local shows where my only cost is the table fee and maybe parking. There is some added benefit to setting up at a show, like making buys and trades, but making it up on buys has become increasingly difficult because of the ease of online selling and the trade nights. The quality Saturday walk-ins at shows go to the trade night instead, where they set up as dealers with no overhead costs. I've noticed that all of my walk-in buys in the last several shows have been on Sunday, after the trade night. I am tempted to put my thesis to the test. Next show I can make in Pasadena, I will not set up, I will take my stuff to the trade night and sell there. For free. My hunch is that I will make more money doing that, net net net, than inside the show.

I understand what you are saying, and I'm not suggesting you sell at a loss, but this seems to me to be a corollary to much-derided seller argument that "I have this much into the card." The main difference is that the latter is COGS while the former is SGA.

Good call. I'm amazed every show promoter hasn't wised up and put the k-k-k-kibosh on this type of event.

Not exactly. I am suggesting that a card show and eBay are different experiences and you cannot expect to use one the same way as the other because the seller's finances are different for each. It is simply not realistic to equate one with the other. If you want to pay eBay prices, stay home and buy the card on eBay. If you want shows to exist, you have to acknowledge that the financial calculus is completely different. Putting it in a slightly different context, if you want to eat a hot dog in New York City, you can get one from a cart on the sidewalk at one price or you can go into a deli and pay significantly more. No one at the deli whines that they are paying $14 for a $4 hot dog because eating at a table in a restaurant is not the same as eating while standing in the gutter.

If your sole concern is price, the better choice is to never go to a show. Why pay parking, admission and perhaps travel costs? Just buy it all online. We go because there are other benefits to going, like the chance to look over the cards in person, immediate delivery, etc. Apples and oranges.

Sure, except that you know there's somewhere between 10-20% off built into the sticker price of just about everything, but you have to ask for it, as in a simple, "what's the best you can do?" etc. On the flip side, dealers can respond to the refrain, "I can get this for so much at such and such," with "Why haven't you?" It's a bit of a dance, but like I said, we're not talking auto parts here, that's part of the fun.

I think some people are conflating looking up recent sales (knowing what copies have sold for in the past) with trying to leverage that information in a dishonest (or unreasonably fashion.

Some people might not be ok with the former for a range of reasons (such as the fact the person did not do the work in advance, the fact that you have to wait around while they look it up etc) while others have an issue with the latter (using only the lowest sales examples when buying and the highest when selling etc).

I generally don't mind waiting if something needs to be looked up (although if it is not a real priority I'm telling them not to bother and moving on).

The latter is my issue and that is the case whether they look up the info on the spot, or do so before the show.

In general as my collecting focus has gotten more niche (WWII baseball, Integration and lineup cards primarily), I find less and less relevant items at shows and that has driven down excitement for them.

I feel like the last paragraph is indicative of most shows these days.

Don, glad you had fun but man, I don’t know how you do it. Some nasty people out there.

Promoters believe that trade nights and similar sideshow events drive traffic. I am not sure that is true, but as long as tables sell out, the promoter can focus on increasing traffic (admissions) without worrying about the dealers. Every dealer setting up at trade night or in the hallways or even in the food court at the National (as was the case in Cleveland) represents a paid admission. I don't know how many of them would have stayed home but for the trade night (maybe none), but if the dealers buy all the tables despite the parasitic card show/trade night, there is no downside for the promoters to allow it. Dealers, believe it or not, have no leverage to negotiate with a promoter if the shows sell out or if there is a waitlist. I am curious to see whether that changes when there is an actual recession and the hobby as a whole contracts and dealers drop out of shows. I recall in prior periods being offered discounted tables and even free autograph tickets for the guests to get me to take a table.

Please do not read it wrong. Don is right, there are frustrating individuals at every show but I'd say 90%+ of the people I interact with when I set up are nice folks who are passionate about their collections, happy to be at a show, and pleasant to deal with. The schmucks are the ones who make for the interesting anecdotes but they are a tiny minority of the overall community. Like here.

I went for the first time in a couple years.
I had a few things to sell, but it was stuff I hadn't really looked at in years.
When making a deal I asked if we could look up one of the better cards and figure from there. Commonly sold for less than I'd thought. Some quick guessing and Ok, how about X? (probably a bit more than I'd paid years ago, but low enough to leave some room for reselling) Deal.
Same with a handful of nicer cards. Probably could have gotten more selling myself, but a quick easy sale and we're both happy.

Technology can be a very good thing.

The kids have gotten old enough that I can be pretty sure they won't want the bulk of the collection, maybe only a few that are special to me.
So I need an exit plan for most of the rest.
Still collecting, just trying to be a bit more focused, not that I'll ever really get there.

I do the same thing, even though I'm usually on the buying side.

I collect mostly T206 and vintage Topps cards. There are plenty of sales just on eBay for these. In other words, it's very easy to find "comps" for the stuff I buy at shows.

When creating my "want list" in advance of the show, I use Excel. I use Terapeak (eBay store tool) and chart the last 10 sales of each item. There are 3 columns:

1. The price a card has sold for
2. Shipping
3. Sales tax for my state

The total is what it would have cost me out-of-pocket to purchase that item.

I'll average the recent sales...and that's my "comp" for the card.

If the hobby spending slows (unlikely), less dealers set up and there are fewer paid attendance, my guess, is some prices would go down for a while. I never blame a promoter for maximizing their profits. The market takes care of greediness, most times.

So true
 

and I should confess that I have used the expression: "how much would it cost me to own this card?"

I rarely go to shows these days, but it takes so little effort to take notes (mental or physical) or even pictures then step away to do your research if that's what you're into.

If you want to negotiate it's generally a better starting point to come seemingly prepared rather than on-the-fly searching sold prices on the internet then starting an argument about it.

I've done this a good amount for my Mark Grace singles collection, specifically. I want to know why one of the gazillion 90s weird insert sets has a card priced at more than just the "50c-$1 value pick box" price and if I should be interested at all.

Same thing, really, and no confession necessary. It's another way of letting the dealer know you're serious and ready to buy if the price is right.

It wouldn't bother me to hear this as a seller if I was someone who had no pricetags on my merchandise!

If the material was visibly priced, I might sing a different tune. Then, it may be more bothersome depending on which word was emphasized! :p

"How much would it cost me to own this card?"

Hmm. This guy sounds like he really wants the card. I'm listening...

How much would it cost me to own this card

Well, everything's already priced, as he can see...

How much would it cost me to own this card

Well, you.......$50 extra!

Oh man, a kid at a show where I had a booth was trying to sell me a card and asked me "what can I do to put you into this card today?" I nearly spit up my drink. No sale though; didn't need the card.

I think VCP is a resourceful tool, but not the only one that should be used. It's inevitable that dealers will try to maximize their ROI and sellers will try to get the most they can out of the card. I think it ultimately comes down to a compromise between the dealer and seller.

There are also external factors that go into it, such as whether or not that seller and dealer have done business before. That will certainly help shape things to go smoothly.

Comps are an essential starting point for transacting in this hobby.

They are but too many people rely on them too much. I know we feel the same way about nicely centered cards and what premiums they bring. I just hear "comp" at shows so much it makes me sick. I guess with the newer stuff, if they are all 10s, then "comps" mean something.

Exactly. The shiny, sparkly new Gem Mint 10 as a pedestrian commodity, one example interchangeable from its counterparts. In this instance, they are comparable to auto parts or any other product offered in abundance.

With vintage, every card tells its own story. Yet another reason to love each of them! :)