For those who believe today’s values are up……

[Kutcher55]

Great balance on that Jackie. Congrats!

[Kutcher55]

Originally Posted by Snowman

The market has cooled over the past couple years, but it also had an enormous and unsustainable runup just prior to that. Anyone that has every studied how markets work should have expected a correction. Here is the CL50 index plot from 2018 (an index of the hobby's top 50 cards, according to CardLadder). The peak corresponds to April, 2021.

If you just ignore March through June of 2021, it doesn't look quite so gloomy.

Great chart. If you really squint at it you can see the index appears to be up slightly since 1/1/24. It would be neat if you could to overlay this chart with the DJIA and/or the price of Bitcoin to see the correlation. Based on the performance of other markets in 2024, vintage is underperforming and I don't at all view it as a good long term investment, although I love owning cards so I don't care too much about that. I got back into the hobby in 2019, one of the few things I ever timed right so I suppose I'm playing with house money anyways.

[Balticfox]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Again you are wrong. Phil defined a specific period of time and was not asking about 60 years ago or from now. One of us has a reading comprehension issue.

Well since you've brought up the subjects of both reading and comprehension, if you read back through this thread it's you and not Phil who's complained most vociferously about a 60 year perspective.

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

When you bought cards 60 years ago as a child not only did you pay 5 or 10 cents for 10 or 12 cards but not sure how many kids in the 1960s were thinking of cards as a profit center.

Of course kids didn't think of cards as a profit center. The concept of full grown adult human beings being interested in cards was inconceivable to them. But following through on that line of thinking, whether they were buying one cent packs with a small section of gum plus a card or five cent packs with a four section sheet of gum plus six cards they were effectively paying a half a cent per card. Kids were effectively on a silver standard back in those days since a U.S. dime contained 0.0723 of a troy ounce of silver. Each card therefore cost them 0.003615 of an ounce of silver. With silver right now at $32.65 per ounce, in today's dollars the price of that card would equate to $0.118.

Now like many of my fellow collectors I'm willing to pay many times that $0.118 for a card that I want for my collection. The psychic benefit I get from the cards I'm buying makes them worth the price I'm paying today. But I don't desperately try to rationalize the price I'm paying by convincing myself I'm "investing".

Moreover it's these very baby boomers who bought one cent and five cent wax packs of cards 60-70 years ago who have driven up the prices of those cards (and comics and other boomer ephemera) to stratospheric levels. Well those boomers are not only retiring en masse these days but some are even dying. That COVID spike in card (and comic) prices may have simply been the boomers' last kick at the can. From here on in we might see nothing but steady distribution from boomers and their estates.

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

You might be living in a bubble....

Well I do like my bubble gum and my gumball vending machines!









Is that alright with you?

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

I am not a stockbroker but I do invest in many things...some of those things you would not consider investments. My definition (and I am sure most people would agree) is that an investment is anything that one spends capital on with the intent to produce a profit in the way of income or capital appreciation.

In which case those who bet on the New York Yankees to beat the Dodgers in the World Series just made a bad investment.

Unlike you I differentiate between speculating and investing. A present or potential future income stream in the case of the latter is the differentiating factor.

And since you brought up the subject of bubbles, I'm always concerned about the parallels between the collectible prices of today and the infamous bubbles of yesteryear. See:

Tulipmania - Investopedia

Tulip Mania - History.com

And of course the beanie babies craze of the 1990's.

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Nah it might be better to just ignore you. Nobody else on this thread, most who have been here much longer than you, found it necessary to be snarky.

So my observation that card prices are in no way "cheap" on an historical basis constitutes "snarkiness"? Sorry to intrude upon your safe space then. I didn't realize that taking a broad decades long economic perspective on card prices constituted "weaponizing" speech.

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

I get where you are coming from. I just do not agree. I think the world is already lacking enough compassion so anytime some can be afforded, I do not think it hurts to offer it.

I see that Phil is retired. As a full grown man, I somehow don't think he'll wilt from a lack of compassion on this subject.

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Maybe that should tell you something about the perspectives of many collectors.... If you are on a forum long enough, you will find topics get repeated. I guess everyone needs to be careful of your wrath. Maybe Leon can put you in charge of thread topics.

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Phil defined a specific period of time and was not asking about 60 years ago or from now.

Well then perhaps Leon could at the same time put you in charge of keeping threads completely on topic. You'll certainly have your job cut out for you.

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Thinking? Is that what you call it?

Yes, that is indeed what it's called. You might try it sometime.

[Balticfox]

Originally Posted by MVSNYC

The card market, like the stock market, is cyclical and has peaks and valleys. Judging by the graph above, the market is lower than the 2021 peak, but certainly much higher then pre-Covid boom.

Yes, prices today are still much higher than historically.

Originally Posted by Kutcher55

Great chart.... Based on the performance of other markets in 2024, vintage is underperforming and I don't at all view it as a good long term investment, although I love owning cards so I don't care too much about that.

And that of course is the real bottom line.

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Touch'EmAll

ebay auctions by prominent seller just closed with majority of the prices very much in line or higher vs. recent comps.

The 10 cards I tracked were all Mays, Aaron, Clemente & Ryan high grade. Interesting to note they all had older PSA cert #'s. What drew me to track them were they all appeared high end for the grade - ie. 45/55 or better centering both ways, no tilts, no print dots, clean backs, nice registration.

I know sounds like a broken record, but high eye appeal & great centering of big name HOFers are going for very solid prices these days. You just can't comp all cards of one particular issue anymore - you must look close at the specific attributes and adjust price accordingly. There is an increasing difference in price between the average or low for the grade and high end for the grade.

And it is getting more difficult as time goes by to locate high end cards for sale. A lot of people are tossing up their low-mid for the grade cards, and the prices are telling. So in that regard, yes prices are hurting. However, it seems collectors are stashing away the nice examples, and when they do show are going for top dollar.

Well said, +1