For those who believe today’s values are up……
 

Using VCP, name a major rookie or truly iconic card that you purchased during the first half of 2021 only that is valued higher today. I would guess 95% are down with most way down but interested in hearing about the few that aren’t.

While I generally agree, there are exceptions.

Honus Wagner items are, across the board, higher (indeed substantially higher) than they were in 2021. Some Wagner are down from earlier in 2024, and some are not (see t216 Mino Wagner throwing in Goldin), but they are all well above 2021.

Similarly, I think most Joe Jackson items, or at least the m101-4/5, are above 2021 levels.

Also, I believe all things Cracker Jack - 1914 and 1915 - are higher today than in 2021.

Most things peaked and are down from 2021, but not everything. Also, for those items that have come down since 2021, they are still well above where they were in 2018, meaning many of these “down cards” have been solid investments over the last 6 years

With cards, it’s never a profit/good investment until you sell for a gain and it’s never a poor investment until you sell for a loss. If you’re spending big money for investment, you have to be in it for the long run unless you just purchase for a specific flip and out.

The card market is very cyclical 2021 early summer-fall 2023 was the HYPE Market Era….it’s come and went. I will remember this period for the next time it comes up…and it will.

Genuine question - why do you think this period will come up again? People have said that the card market is "cyclical" but it seems that there have really only been two booms - one in the late 1980s/early 1990s, and the second during the very peculiar circumstances of Covid. That is an "n" of 2 - hardly enough data to derive a pattern, I would think, and easier to explain by the specifics of each instance. How and why do you imagine there will be a similar boom in the future?

Bit of nit-picking on the "COVID era" but if you drill down into the start of the upswing, it started in the late-summer/early-fall of 2019.

COVID totally kicked things in high gear, but even before we had the first shutdowns in the US we had people staking out Target/Walmart in Jan/Feb 2020 running over each other for blaster box restocks.

It will historically be known as the COVID-era, easily and rightfully, but things were churning before then.

I wonder what the market would have been without the COVID shutdowns and the things that came along with it.

Fear of Missing Out will strike again to the wealthy collectors/and investors along with those dealers and collectors who remember making a ton of money during this period. Many people sold for large profits during this past 3 years.

Agree with Wagner, Jackson & CJ. I guess my question should have read what post-war cards. Come to think of it, I can come up with a number of pre-war examples. The exceptions being the most mainstream and most iconic cards like Goudey Ruth’s, T206 Cobb’s, etc.

Obviously not vintage, but the rare 90s inserts I collect are significantly more expensive now than 2021.

Given that prices are up something like 100 fold in the last sixty years, anybody complaining about prices having dropped in the past three years deserves no sympathy.

:rolleyes:

It's great that cards upturned the aforementioned 2 times. But for those of us who just collect, who cares? If cards go down, it's great news for us.

Given that prices are up something like 100 fold in the last sixty years, anybody complaining about prices having dropped in the past three years deserves no sympathy.

Except for those like myself that started a new collection and bought everything in 2021.

Well I am assuming that if the cards you bought weren't worth that much to you, you would not have bought them at those prices. And you still have the cards, do you not? So you're fine.

:)

I agree. Lower prices mean I can amass more cards!

;)

Nice timing, Phil. I know the feeling.

I bought this one in 2021 for a lot! of money. I don't care (too much) if the value went down ....

https://luckeycards.com/t2052.jpg

I believe we are down/flat for the next few years on a lot of the card market. Sure, some high end/rare cards will continue to rise. But the common stuff? Down to flat.

That’s such a silly statement. First, what does “prices” mean? Prices of what? All cards (whatever that means)? A 1964 common? But more importantly, the only relevant thing to an owner is what price he bought a card at and what price he sells the card at. As Phil pointed out, his purchases were not the beneficiaries of any updraft in prices and so he has a reason to rue what he did. And it is not just cards purchased in 2021. I think Kalamazoo Bats prices are lower today than they were thirty years ago. There is no intrinsic value, there is no dividend stream; values are at the whim of the current collecting public.

What do values from 60 years ago have anything to do with Phil's post? :rolleyes: He is simply restating what others have done in may other threads. The market has adjusted dramatically since 2021 and that never feels great to anyone but you, I suppose.

I certainly did not take his post as complaining. There are a lot of collectors who are upside down on their purchases. Hopefully it will not take 60 years for those who bought in 20 and 21 to be in the black.

I think vintage is up slightly in the last 12 months, likely driven by a bull financial market. The major indexes are all up 20% and vintage isn’t up by that much. Draw your own conclusions from that. I don’t see us ever getting back to Feb ‘21 prices but I don’t care that much. There’s still enough inefficiency in the market to take advantage of the arbitrage and finance the growth of the ol’ PC. And there are examples of key vintage cards that should grow. Heck, it’s kind of morbid but we’ve seen pretty good short term spikes of cards recently when the player dies. Bill Walton cards went up 50% overnight. Rose cards went for at least a 25% premium at his passing and the Fernando Valenzuela Topps Traded card went bonkers last week upon his untimely passing.

I think the endless loop of auctions, weekly, monthly, quarterly, pop up, extra innings ….. yadda yadda yadda …. Has made it clear to people that a great deal of this stuff ain’t as scarce or as special as we all wanted to believe. When a single auction has 7-10 of the same card, it don’t seem quite so amazing does it?

There's also the weird math of trying to figure out where the hobby is on certain cards. Even for some great looking cards, rarity won't elevate them past popular cards.

Not vintage, but easy to make an example of...1989 Upper Deck K.Griffey Jr cards still demand $40-50 in raw condition even though we know there's a million+ of them out there in the wild. Who doesn't want one, though? It's iconic junk wax.

Everybody already has one!

Cards
 

Buy the best of the best at a decent price and sit back and enjoy the ride.

Thank you for the distinction because the pre-war cards I want to add to my collection have cost me more since Covid, Some early Cobb has settled but it's all expensive. 6k ain't what it used to be...

And not even that if he's happy to just buy and hold.

Precisely! Which is why I don't look at my cards as any kind of an investment.

A psychologist might therefore say that I buy them as an exercise in self-fulfillment. (See Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs.) I dunno. But they bring me delight in the short term and a sense of comfort/satisfaction in the longer term.

It's called "perspective". It's useful when looking at prices.

Yes, I've noticed. I'm sure I'm not the only one who finds it tiresome.

You're incorrect. Here's a quick counter-example:

And you do realize that those of us such as Jingram058 and myself who are happy with lower prices are on the side of plenty for all. It's those who agitate for high prices who are on the side of scarcity. Would you cheer for scarcity if we were talking about corn or soybeans?

"Hopefully"? Why? Is there some natural right to be "in the black" on purchases of anything? Do you expect to be in the black on your car, refrigerator, stereo, etc? Those are for use you say? What about the stuff you never use, e.g. the socks you bought twenty years ago that you've never used? You say those aren't investments? Well neither are cards. See the lack of a dividend stream referenced by the previous poster.

Looking at it another way, do you pity the speculator on Wall Street who lost money buying at stock at a silly price because he was hoping somebody would quickly pay an even sillier price? I don't. That's the risk you take buying something which derives "value" only from the whim of other buyers.

I disagree. Buy what you want/like at what they're worth to you. That way you can ignore the ferris wheel and other rides because you're getting your money's worth from your cards anyway.

;)

I don’t invest in cards, I collect them. It can all go to zero for all I care.

Well said.

:cool:

I can prove that cards are a great investment or a crap one, just let me choose the starting point and ending point. The same can be said of anything. From 1970-1979, the inflation adjusted return on the S & P 500 was -2.2%. From 2000 to 2009 it was -24.29%. That’s two full decades where stock investors ate S**T. You make your money on the buy is the old saying but you have to know when to sell too and what to do with the money. If you sold off vintage in 2021 and went into modern right at the peak of the modern run up, yeah, you're pretty much f***ed and you will never, recover your losses. If you sold into the run and didn't put the proceeds into something that tanked, you did great.

No actually it is called irrelevant. It had nothing to do with Phil's post. Phil's post did not call for perspective.

You admitted to having no sympathy but you just told me you have no tolerance. You have been on here for just over a year and you are already irritated by this topic. Might be best to skip these threads however that would eliminate an opportunity to be snarky.

Personally speaking, generally, I do not measure markets narrowly based on strong or weak markets. I have bought and sold plenty of real estate and cards in good and bad times. Timing a market is not my focus.

"Hopefully" was the word I picked to express a kind sentiment. Sorry that you were not able to recognize that. I think many hobbyists hope when they buy a card that it will appreciate. Doubt those same hobbyists expect their car, refrigerator, stereo or their socks to appreciate. And please tell me when something appreciating in value had to be an investment? Having a dividend stream might characterize something as an investment but absent the dividend, imo, an expenditure can still be an investment such as real estate.

So now you are characterizing anyone who bought cards in 2021 as being silly? I think anyone who has experience and done their homework, knows there is an inherent risk with spending money on stocks, cards, etc. That does not mean you cannot express a little compassion towards them when there is a correction in the market.

I think it’s possible to balance any bad buy as long as you have time on your side. If you paid up in 2021 but have the luxury of holding your cards for another 5 or 10 years I think you’ll make out just fine in the end. But if you bought in 2021 to sell in 2023 you aren’t in a good place.

Depends what you bought

True. A lot of people paid a lot of money for Jordan and LeBron rookies. Probably not much chance you’re going to dig your way out of a Jordan PSA 9 or 10 anytime soon but for the middle grades even if you overpaid you should be safe waiting it out.

If you bought Ja Morant cards or something you might have to eat that.

Timing is EVERYTHING!!!!! It's taken me most of my 55 years to act on the phrase..."only fools rush in!" While I still act foolishly...often. When buying "investments" whether cards...or stocks...patience is paramount. Now I'm not talking the patience ben young is exhibiting in his search for a 21' ruth exhibit card...i'm saying do your due diligence.

Time is your friend...and your enemy!!!!

Exactly, the buyers of eight figure Jason Dominguez cards might have to wait a while to be back in the black. 🤣

I would agree, although I've never bought a card as an investment always as an addition to my PC, for me it's always "Gee, I could spend this money on so many other things" but it's hard to shake that collector bug.

And it's never a bad time to pick up a 14CJ Cobb...

Focusing on the blue chip cards for post-war from mid-2021 to today:

Mantle RC down
Mays RC down
Aaron RC down
Clemente RC down
Koufax RC down
Jackie RC down
Musial RC down

That’s a clean sweep, 7 for 7, all down and I believe these are the biggest 7 names of the post-war era. So, my question is now, if you hold on to these long enough, you will reach the black eventually or never again reach those heights? I happen to believe the prices will one day exceed 2021, maybe 5 years from now on some/most?

The market has cooled over the past couple years, but it also had an enormous and unsustainable runup just prior to that. Anyone that has every studied how markets work should have expected a correction. Here is the CL50 index plot from 2018 (an index of the hobby's top 50 cards, according to CardLadder). The peak corresponds to April, 2021.

If you just ignore March through June of 2021, it doesn't look quite so gloomy.

I think they surely come back. When is another story.

There's a Yogi ism in there somewhere. Maybe, nobody wants one, they're too popular.

Excuse me but Phil didn't need to call for it. Perspective is always relevant. Basically it's almost impossible to function without it.

Well yeah. The one thing would typically lead to the other.

"Already"? The "Why are prices down? Will they soon recover?" topic has been all over collectible forums in the past two years.

Discussion forums are by nature precisely that. If a poster doesn't want the whole range of commentary on a subject he's raised, he's in the wrong place. And asking why a purchaser paid that much for a card if it wasn't worth that much to him is most certainly a fair question. It might therefore be best for you to skip these threads if you're offended by such "snarkiness".

Fair enough. Neither of us are short-term players then.

That is incorrect. I disagreed because we're not on the same page when it comes to our underlying thinking.

Oh? When I bought cards as a kid sixty+ years ago, I didn't do so with a view to subsequent profits. Neither do I do so today. Nor do many hardcore collectors. Quite simply we hardcore collectors like low prices because it enables us to buy more. Being both a collector and an "investor" actually requires a dollop of schizophrenia. These hobbyists of whom you speak must then be a "curious" lot.

Nothing without the potential of an income stream somewhere down the line can be characterized as an investment. If nobody thought "Moose Pasture Resources" or "Technology Beyond Dreams" could turn into income producing enterprises at some point, there'd be no buyers. Even raw land has the potential to kick off an earning stream since it could be rented out for farmland or campsites or turned into a parking lot depending upon location.

But how can one generate an income stream from a card? By charging people for a look?

If however a purchase has no potential to ever kick out an income stream, it's a straightforward rank speculation. And as a longtime stockbroker I can tell you that the operative phrase then becomes "Well sometimes they go up; sometimes they go down."

Only those who paid more than the card was worth to them. Because it's only those who are complaining about being underwater on their purchase today. The others are still perfectly happy with their card.

Compassion? The card buyers who paid what a card was worth to them aren't asking for it. The others can go to their dog for unconditional compassion. From me they'll get only tough love, i.e. "Well who forced you to pay so much for that little piece of cardboard in the first place?"

:confused:

"Never" is a long time. How long it takes for those cards to "get back" to those peak prices may therefore be largely a function of how quickly the government debases the currency. We're not on any gold standard (or even a less formal silver standard) anymore.

:(

You bring up a good point about the effects of inflation.

Between June 2020 and June 2024, inflation as calculated by the BLS was about 22%. So if you deflate today’s prices at that rate, they look a little less ludicrous.

Of course, that’s just the inflation rate here in the US. For radical Canadians, it might be higher.

Again you are wrong. Phil defined a specific period of time and was not asking about 60 years ago or from now. One of us has a reading comprehension issue.

Maybe that should tell you something about the perspectives of many collectors....from my understanding perspectives are always relevant.:rolleyes: If you are on a forum long enough, you will find topics get repeated. I guess everyone needs to be careful of your wrath. Maybe Leon can put you in charge of thread topics.

Nah it might be better to just ignore you. Nobody else on this thread, most who have been here much longer than you, found it necessary to be snarky.

Thinking? Is that what you call it?

When you bought cards 60 years ago as a child not only did you pay 5 or 10 cents for 10 or 12 cards but not sure how many kids in the 1960s were thinking of cards as a profit center. That concept did not arise until decades later. You might be living in a bubble because I know of many collectors and whether or not they buy cards with the hopes of them appreciating is not criteria for them to be considered hardcore. I feel it is quite black and white to characterize everyone as either being a collector or an investor. Your definitions are rigid, imo.

I am not a stockbroker but I do invest in many things...some of those things you would not consider investments. My definition (and I am sure most people would agree) is that an investment is anything that one spends capital on with the intent to produce a profit in the way of income or capital appreciation.

That is incorrect. I do not recall reading that Phil is not perfectly happy with his cards. Again, one can be happy with the cards but not happy with the fact they are worth less than you paid for them.

I get where you are coming from. I just do not agree. I think the world is already lacking enough compassion so anytime some can be afforded, I do not think it hurts to offer it.

In nominal terms, they will certain exceed 2021 one day, in inflation-adjusted terms, I'm not so sure.

It looks alright to me anyway. In fact even if you turned it upside down, it would still look alright to me. After all, sometimes they go up; sometimes they go down. Both the seller and the buyer have an equal right to be correct, and an equal right to be wrong.

;)

I just wanted to clarify one more thing. While my prior post makes it appear that my 2021 purchases leaned heavily towards post-war players, ie-Mantle, Mays, Aaron, Clemente, Jackie, Musial & Koufax, I was just as interested in picking up the biggest pre-war stars but my desire to stick with rookie cards exclusively left me priced out of the market on most, including Ruth, Wagner, Matty, Gehrig & Joe Jax. I was able to pick up two low-end rookie card examples of WaJo & Cobb.

'I can pick up that card any time after I die.' YB

ebay auctions by prominent seller just closed with majority of the prices very much in line or higher vs. recent comps.

The 10 cards I tracked were all Mays, Aaron, Clemente & Ryan high grade. Interesting to note they all had older PSA cert #'s. What drew me to track them were they all appeared high end for the grade - ie. 45/55 or better centering both ways, no tilts, no print dots, clean backs, nice registration.

I know sounds like a broken record, but high eye appeal & great centering of big name HOFers are going for very solid prices these days. You just can't comp all cards of one particular issue anymore - you must look close at the specific attributes and adjust price accordingly. There is an increasing difference in price between the average or low for the grade and high end for the grade.

And it is getting more difficult as time goes by to locate high end cards for sale. A lot of people are tossing up their low-mid for the grade cards, and the prices are telling. So in that regard, yes prices are hurting. However, it seems collectors are stashing away the nice examples, and when they do show are going for top dollar.

Leon, awesome T205 Cobb!

Nothing to be concerned about. The card market, like the stock market, is cyclical and has peaks and valleys. Judging by the graph above, the market is lower than the 2021 peak, but certainly much higher then pre-Covid boom.

For pre-war, I've always been into Rare Back (often HOF) T206. And, also recently picked up a clean Goudey Ruth.

Since the original poster specifically mentioned post-war, I'm a fan of Jackie Rookies and Signed Mantles...I just acquired these two...