For those who believe today’s values are up……

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

Timing is EVERYTHING!!!!! It's taken me most of my 55 years to act on the phrase..."only fools rush in!" While I still act foolishly...often. When buying "investments" whether cards...or stocks...patience is paramount. Now I'm not talking the patience ben young is exhibiting in his search for a 21' ruth exhibit card...i'm saying do your due diligence.

Time is your friend...and your enemy!!!!

I would agree, although I've never bought a card as an investment always as an addition to my PC, for me it's always "Gee, I could spend this money on so many other things" but it's hard to shake that collector bug.

And it's never a bad time to pick up a 14CJ Cobb...

[bcbgcbrcb]

Focusing on the blue chip cards for post-war from mid-2021 to today:

Mantle RC down
Mays RC down
Aaron RC down
Clemente RC down
Koufax RC down
Jackie RC down
Musial RC down

That’s a clean sweep, 7 for 7, all down and I believe these are the biggest 7 names of the post-war era. So, my question is now, if you hold on to these long enough, you will reach the black eventually or never again reach those heights? I happen to believe the prices will one day exceed 2021, maybe 5 years from now on some/most?

[Snowman]

The market has cooled over the past couple years, but it also had an enormous and unsustainable runup just prior to that. Anyone that has every studied how markets work should have expected a correction. Here is the CL50 index plot from 2018 (an index of the hobby's top 50 cards, according to CardLadder). The peak corresponds to April, 2021.

If you just ignore March through June of 2021, it doesn't look quite so gloomy.

[Balticfox]

Originally Posted by Snowman

The market has cooled over the past couple years, but it also had an enormous and unsustainable runup just prior to that. Anyone that has every studied how markets work should have expected a correction. Here is the CL50 index plot from 2018 (an index of the hobby's top 50 cards, according to CardLadder). The peak corresponds to April, 2021.



If you just ignore March through June of 2021, it doesn't look quite so gloomy.

It looks alright to me anyway. In fact even if you turned it upside down, it would still look alright to me. After all, sometimes they go up; sometimes they go down. Both the seller and the buyer have an equal right to be correct, and an equal right to be wrong.

[Kutcher55]

Originally Posted by Snowman

The market has cooled over the past couple years, but it also had an enormous and unsustainable runup just prior to that. Anyone that has every studied how markets work should have expected a correction. Here is the CL50 index plot from 2018 (an index of the hobby's top 50 cards, according to CardLadder). The peak corresponds to April, 2021.

If you just ignore March through June of 2021, it doesn't look quite so gloomy.

Great chart. If you really squint at it you can see the index appears to be up slightly since 1/1/24. It would be neat if you could to overlay this chart with the DJIA and/or the price of Bitcoin to see the correlation. Based on the performance of other markets in 2024, vintage is underperforming and I don't at all view it as a good long term investment, although I love owning cards so I don't care too much about that. I got back into the hobby in 2019, one of the few things I ever timed right so I suppose I'm playing with house money anyways.

[calvindog]

Originally Posted by bcbgcbrcb

Focusing on the blue chip cards for post-war from mid-2021 to today:

Mantle RC down
Mays RC down
Aaron RC down
Clemente RC down
Koufax RC down
Jackie RC down
Musial RC down

That’s a clean sweep, 7 for 7, all down and I believe these are the biggest 7 names of the post-war era. So, my question is now, if you hold on to these long enough, you will reach the black eventually or never again reach those heights? I happen to believe the prices will one day exceed 2021, maybe 5 years from now on some/most?

I think they surely come back. When is another story.

[Balticfox]

Originally Posted by bcbgcbrcb

Focusing on the blue chip cards for post-war from mid-2021 to today:

Mantle RC down
Mays RC down
Aaron RC down
Clemente RC down
Koufax RC down
Jackie RC down
Musial RC down

That’s a clean sweep, 7 for 7, all down and I believe these are the biggest 7 names of the post-war era. So, my question is now, if you hold on to these long enough, you will reach the black eventually or never again reach those heights?

"Never" is a long time. How long it takes for those cards to "get back" to those peak prices may therefore be largely a function of how quickly the government debases the currency. We're not on any gold standard (or even a less formal silver standard) anymore.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Balticfox

"Never" is a long time. How long it takes for those cards to "get back" to those peak prices may therefore be largely a function of how quickly the government debases the currency. We're not on any gold standard (or even a less formal silver standard) anymore.

You bring up a good point about the effects of inflation.

Between June 2020 and June 2024, inflation as calculated by the BLS was about 22%. So if you deflate today’s prices at that rate, they look a little less ludicrous.

Of course, that’s just the inflation rate here in the US. For radical Canadians, it might be higher.

[jsfriedm]

Originally Posted by bcbgcbrcb

Focusing on the blue chip cards for post-war from mid-2021 to today:

Mantle RC down
Mays RC down
Aaron RC down
Clemente RC down
Koufax RC down
Jackie RC down
Musial RC down

That’s a clean sweep, 7 for 7, all down and I believe these are the biggest 7 names of the post-war era. So, my question is now, if you hold on to these long enough, you will reach the black eventually or never again reach those heights? I happen to believe the prices will one day exceed 2021, maybe 5 years from now on some/most?

In nominal terms, they will certain exceed 2021 one day, in inflation-adjusted terms, I'm not so sure.