For those who believe today’s values are up……

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Balticfox

It's called "perspective". It's useful when looking at prices.

No actually it is called irrelevant. It had nothing to do with Phil's post. Phil's post did not call for perspective.

Originally Posted by Balticfox

Yes, I've noticed. I'm sure I'm not the only one who finds it tiresome.

You admitted to having no sympathy but you just told me you have no tolerance. You have been on here for just over a year and you are already irritated by this topic. Might be best to skip these threads however that would eliminate an opportunity to be snarky.

Originally Posted by Balticfox

And you do realize that those of us such as Jingram058 and myself who are happy with lower prices are on the side of plenty for all. It's those who agitate for high prices who are on the side of scarcity. Would you cheer for scarcity if we were talking about corn or soybeans?

Personally speaking, generally, I do not measure markets narrowly based on strong or weak markets. I have bought and sold plenty of real estate and cards in good and bad times. Timing a market is not my focus.

Originally Posted by Balticfox

"Hopefully"? Why? Is there some natural right to be "in the black" on purchases of anything? Do you expect to be in the black on your car, refrigerator, stereo, etc? Those are for use you say? What about the stuff you never use, e.g. the socks you bought twenty years ago that you've never used? You say those aren't investments? Well neither are cards. See the lack of a dividend stream referenced by the previous poster.

"Hopefully" was the word I picked to express a kind sentiment. Sorry that you were not able to recognize that. I think many hobbyists hope when they buy a card that it will appreciate. Doubt those same hobbyists expect their car, refrigerator, stereo or their socks to appreciate. And please tell me when something appreciating in value had to be an investment? Having a dividend stream might characterize something as an investment but absent the dividend, imo, an expenditure can still be an investment such as real estate.

Originally Posted by Balticfox

Looking at it another way, do you pity the speculator on Wall Street who lost money buying at stock at a silly price because he was hoping somebody would quickly pay an even sillier price? I don't. That's the risk you take buying something which derives "value" only from the whim of other buyers.

So now you are characterizing anyone who bought cards in 2021 as being silly? I think anyone who has experience and done their homework, knows there is an inherent risk with spending money on stocks, cards, etc. That does not mean you cannot express a little compassion towards them when there is a correction in the market.

[packs]

I think it’s possible to balance any bad buy as long as you have time on your side. If you paid up in 2021 but have the luxury of holding your cards for another 5 or 10 years I think you’ll make out just fine in the end. But if you bought in 2021 to sell in 2023 you aren’t in a good place.

[oldjudge]

Depends what you bought

[packs]

True. A lot of people paid a lot of money for Jordan and LeBron rookies. Probably not much chance you’re going to dig your way out of a Jordan PSA 9 or 10 anytime soon but for the middle grades even if you overpaid you should be safe waiting it out.

If you bought Ja Morant cards or something you might have to eat that.

[ullmandds]

Timing is EVERYTHING!!!!! It's taken me most of my 55 years to act on the phrase..."only fools rush in!" While I still act foolishly...often. When buying "investments" whether cards...or stocks...patience is paramount. Now I'm not talking the patience ben young is exhibiting in his search for a 21' ruth exhibit card...i'm saying do your due diligence.

Time is your friend...and your enemy!!!!

[oldjudge]

Exactly, the buyers of eight figure Jason Dominguez cards might have to wait a while to be back in the black. 🤣

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

Timing is EVERYTHING!!!!! It's taken me most of my 55 years to act on the phrase..."only fools rush in!" While I still act foolishly...often. When buying "investments" whether cards...or stocks...patience is paramount. Now I'm not talking the patience ben young is exhibiting in his search for a 21' ruth exhibit card...i'm saying do your due diligence.

Time is your friend...and your enemy!!!!

I would agree, although I've never bought a card as an investment always as an addition to my PC, for me it's always "Gee, I could spend this money on so many other things" but it's hard to shake that collector bug.

And it's never a bad time to pick up a 14CJ Cobb...

[bcbgcbrcb]

Focusing on the blue chip cards for post-war from mid-2021 to today:

Mantle RC down
Mays RC down
Aaron RC down
Clemente RC down
Koufax RC down
Jackie RC down
Musial RC down

That’s a clean sweep, 7 for 7, all down and I believe these are the biggest 7 names of the post-war era. So, my question is now, if you hold on to these long enough, you will reach the black eventually or never again reach those heights? I happen to believe the prices will one day exceed 2021, maybe 5 years from now on some/most?

[Balticfox]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

No actually it is called irrelevant. It had nothing to do with Phil's post. Phil's post did not call for perspective.

Excuse me but Phil didn't need to call for it. Perspective is always relevant. Basically it's almost impossible to function without it.

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

You admitted to having no sympathy but you just told me you have no tolerance.

Well yeah. The one thing would typically lead to the other.

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

You have been on here for just over a year and you are already irritated by this topic.

"Already"? The "Why are prices down? Will they soon recover?" topic has been all over collectible forums in the past two years.

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Might be best to skip these threads however that would eliminate an opportunity to be snarky.

Discussion forums are by nature precisely that. If a poster doesn't want the whole range of commentary on a subject he's raised, he's in the wrong place. And asking why a purchaser paid that much for a card if it wasn't worth that much to him is most certainly a fair question. It might therefore be best for you to skip these threads if you're offended by such "snarkiness".

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Personally speaking, generally, I do not measure markets narrowly based on strong or weak markets. I have bought and sold plenty of real estate and cards in good and bad times. Timing a market is not my focus.

Fair enough. Neither of us are short-term players then.

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

"Hopefully" was the word I picked to express a kind sentiment. Sorry that you were not able to recognize that.

That is incorrect. I disagreed because we're not on the same page when it comes to our underlying thinking.

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

I think many hobbyists hope when they buy a card that it will appreciate.

Oh? When I bought cards as a kid sixty+ years ago, I didn't do so with a view to subsequent profits. Neither do I do so today. Nor do many hardcore collectors. Quite simply we hardcore collectors like low prices because it enables us to buy more. Being both a collector and an "investor" actually requires a dollop of schizophrenia. These hobbyists of whom you speak must then be a "curious" lot.

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Having a dividend stream might characterize something as an investment but absent the dividend, imo, an expenditure can still be an investment such as real estate.

Nothing without the potential of an income stream somewhere down the line can be characterized as an investment. If nobody thought "Moose Pasture Resources" or "Technology Beyond Dreams" could turn into income producing enterprises at some point, there'd be no buyers. Even raw land has the potential to kick off an earning stream since it could be rented out for farmland or campsites or turned into a parking lot depending upon location.

But how can one generate an income stream from a card? By charging people for a look?

If however a purchase has no potential to ever kick out an income stream, it's a straightforward rank speculation. And as a longtime stockbroker I can tell you that the operative phrase then becomes "Well sometimes they go up; sometimes they go down."

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

So now you are characterizing anyone who bought cards in 2021 as being silly?

Only those who paid more than the card was worth to them. Because it's only those who are complaining about being underwater on their purchase today. The others are still perfectly happy with their card.

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

I think anyone who has experience and done their homework, knows there is an inherent risk with spending money on stocks, cards, etc. That does not mean you cannot express a little compassion towards them when there is a correction in the market.

Compassion? The card buyers who paid what a card was worth to them aren't asking for it. The others can go to their dog for unconditional compassion. From me they'll get only tough love, i.e. "Well who forced you to pay so much for that little piece of cardboard in the first place?"

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Balticfox

Excuse me but Phil didn't need to call for it. Perspective is always relevant. Basically it's almost impossible to function without it.

Again you are wrong. Phil defined a specific period of time and was not asking about 60 years ago or from now. One of us has a reading comprehension issue.

"Already"? The "Why are prices down? Will they soon recover?" topic has been all over collectible forums in the past two years.

Maybe that should tell you something about the perspectives of many collectors....from my understanding perspectives are always relevant. If you are on a forum long enough, you will find topics get repeated. I guess everyone needs to be careful of your wrath. Maybe Leon can put you in charge of thread topics.

Discussion forums are by nature precisely that. If a poster doesn't want the whole range of commentary on a subject he's raised, he's in the wrong place. And asking why a purchaser paid that much for a card if it wasn't worth that much to him is most certainly a fair question. It might therefore be best for you to skip these threads if you're offended by such "snarkiness".

Nah it might be better to just ignore you. Nobody else on this thread, most who have been here much longer than you, found it necessary to be snarky.

That is incorrect. I disagreed because we're not on the same page when it comes to our underlying thinking.

Thinking? Is that what you call it?

Oh? When I bought cards as a kid sixty+ years ago, I didn't do so with a view to subsequent profits. Neither do I do so today. Nor do many hardcore collectors. Quite simply we hardcore collectors like low prices because it enables us to buy more. Being both a collector and an "investor" actually requires a dollop of schizophrenia. These hobbyists of whom you speak must then be a "curious" lot.

When you bought cards 60 years ago as a child not only did you pay 5 or 10 cents for 10 or 12 cards but not sure how many kids in the 1960s were thinking of cards as a profit center. That concept did not arise until decades later. You might be living in a bubble because I know of many collectors and whether or not they buy cards with the hopes of them appreciating is not criteria for them to be considered hardcore. I feel it is quite black and white to characterize everyone as either being a collector or an investor. Your definitions are rigid, imo.

Nothing without the potential of an income stream somewhere down the line can be characterized as an investment. If nobody thought "Moose Pasture Resources" or "Technology Beyond Dreams" could turn into income producing enterprises at some point, there'd be no buyers. Even raw land has the potential to kick off an earning stream since it could be rented out for farmland or campsites or turned into a parking lot depending upon location.

If however a purchase has no potential to ever kick out an income stream, it's a straightforward rank speculation. And as a longtime stockbroker I can tell you that the operative phrase then becomes "Well sometimes they go up; sometimes they go down."

I am not a stockbroker but I do invest in many things...some of those things you would not consider investments. My definition (and I am sure most people would agree) is that an investment is anything that one spends capital on with the intent to produce a profit in the way of income or capital appreciation.

Only those who paid more than the card was worth to them. Because it's only those who are complaining about being underwater on their purchase today. The others are still perfectly happy with their card.

That is incorrect. I do not recall reading that Phil is not perfectly happy with his cards. Again, one can be happy with the cards but not happy with the fact they are worth less than you paid for them.

Compassion? The card buyers who paid what a card was worth to them aren't asking for it. The others can go to their dog for unconditional compassion. From me they'll get only tough love, i.e. "Well who forced you to pay so much for that little piece of cardboard in the first place?"

I get where you are coming from. I just do not agree. I think the world is already lacking enough compassion so anytime some can be afforded, I do not think it hurts to offer it.

[Balticfox]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Again you are wrong. Phil defined a specific period of time and was not asking about 60 years ago or from now. One of us has a reading comprehension issue.

Well since you've brought up the subjects of both reading and comprehension, if you read back through this thread it's you and not Phil who's complained most vociferously about a 60 year perspective.

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

When you bought cards 60 years ago as a child not only did you pay 5 or 10 cents for 10 or 12 cards but not sure how many kids in the 1960s were thinking of cards as a profit center.

Of course kids didn't think of cards as a profit center. The concept of full grown adult human beings being interested in cards was inconceivable to them. But following through on that line of thinking, whether they were buying one cent packs with a small section of gum plus a card or five cent packs with a four section sheet of gum plus six cards they were effectively paying a half a cent per card. Kids were effectively on a silver standard back in those days since a U.S. dime contained 0.0723 of a troy ounce of silver. Each card therefore cost them 0.003615 of an ounce of silver. With silver right now at $32.65 per ounce, in today's dollars the price of that card would equate to $0.118.

Now like many of my fellow collectors I'm willing to pay many times that $0.118 for a card that I want for my collection. The psychic benefit I get from the cards I'm buying makes them worth the price I'm paying today. But I don't desperately try to rationalize the price I'm paying by convincing myself I'm "investing".

Moreover it's these very baby boomers who bought one cent and five cent wax packs of cards 60-70 years ago who have driven up the prices of those cards (and comics and other boomer ephemera) to stratospheric levels. Well those boomers are not only retiring en masse these days but some are even dying. That COVID spike in card (and comic) prices may have simply been the boomers' last kick at the can. From here on in we might see nothing but steady distribution from boomers and their estates.

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

You might be living in a bubble....

Well I do like my bubble gum and my gumball vending machines!









Is that alright with you?

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

I am not a stockbroker but I do invest in many things...some of those things you would not consider investments. My definition (and I am sure most people would agree) is that an investment is anything that one spends capital on with the intent to produce a profit in the way of income or capital appreciation.

In which case those who bet on the New York Yankees to beat the Dodgers in the World Series just made a bad investment.

Unlike you I differentiate between speculating and investing. A present or potential future income stream in the case of the latter is the differentiating factor.

And since you brought up the subject of bubbles, I'm always concerned about the parallels between the collectible prices of today and the infamous bubbles of yesteryear. See:

Tulipmania - Investopedia

Tulip Mania - History.com

And of course the beanie babies craze of the 1990's.

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Nah it might be better to just ignore you. Nobody else on this thread, most who have been here much longer than you, found it necessary to be snarky.

So my observation that card prices are in no way "cheap" on an historical basis constitutes "snarkiness"? Sorry to intrude upon your safe space then. I didn't realize that taking a broad decades long economic perspective on card prices constituted "weaponizing" speech.

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

I get where you are coming from. I just do not agree. I think the world is already lacking enough compassion so anytime some can be afforded, I do not think it hurts to offer it.

I see that Phil is retired. As a full grown man, I somehow don't think he'll wilt from a lack of compassion on this subject.

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Maybe that should tell you something about the perspectives of many collectors.... If you are on a forum long enough, you will find topics get repeated. I guess everyone needs to be careful of your wrath. Maybe Leon can put you in charge of thread topics.

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Phil defined a specific period of time and was not asking about 60 years ago or from now.

Well then perhaps Leon could at the same time put you in charge of keeping threads completely on topic. You'll certainly have your job cut out for you.

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Thinking? Is that what you call it?

Yes, that is indeed what it's called. You might try it sometime.

[Balticfox]

Originally Posted by MVSNYC

The card market, like the stock market, is cyclical and has peaks and valleys. Judging by the graph above, the market is lower than the 2021 peak, but certainly much higher then pre-Covid boom.

Yes, prices today are still much higher than historically.

Originally Posted by Kutcher55

Great chart.... Based on the performance of other markets in 2024, vintage is underperforming and I don't at all view it as a good long term investment, although I love owning cards so I don't care too much about that.

And that of course is the real bottom line.