Different bidding patterns

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

I wish I had any theory as to bidding patterns. We have auctions where we get to 50% of projections with a week or more left and other times we don't get there until 3 or 4 days left, yet in each case the auction ends up roughly on projection. Lately it's been even more unpredictable.

[Peter_Spaeth]

In the good old PWCC days, there were certain types of cards that would run up to 90 percent right out of the gate.

[raulus]

Based on the OP, I’m guessing this is intended to be an expose on shilling and other shenanigans.

So I guess we had better first decide whether there’s shilling or not. If there is shilling, then that could explain some of the zooming right out of the gate. Although there’s every possibility a good zoom could be legit, just with a couple of bidders deciding to not wait in terms of trying to out-bid each other. And there’s nothing to prevent a shill from waiting until the last minute to do their thing.

I tend to suspect that shilling is less prevalent than we fear, but probably not zero. But unless you’re the one doing the shilling, it’s hard to really know whether there’s shilling involved, or just another motivated collector you’re competing against. Even if the card comes right back onto the market, that’s not a dead giveaway that the auction was shilled, although it definitely gives you a bad taste.

I do think with eBay that sniping services make a difference, as there’s no ability to keep bidding once the auction ends. Get your bids in and that’s it. It’s not uncommon with that format to see a big jump in the last 5 seconds as the snipes come rolling in. And sometimes a couple of snipers put in ludicrous bids because they don’t want to lose, and figure no one else will be stupid enough to go that high. So one of them gets to pay 5x what it’s worth just because they didn’t want to lose. And the loser gets to have that comp thrown in their face for the next few years when they try to buy another one.

With the more traditional AH format that doesn’t allow for sniping, most auctions do seem to wait until the end, and that’s not surprising. I have participated in some serious zooms right out of the gate when some other bidder and I just decided there was no point in waiting. The other guy ended up winning, so I’m assuming he wasn’t just a shill, especially because the card didn’t come back onto the market.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

In the good old PWCC days, there were certain types of cards that would run up to 90 percent right out of the gate.

I am still seeing that with a certain house but nothing like the BS that took place in the days of PWCC. No incentive for any bidder, unless it is their consignment, to see a huge run up. It is not a race.

[Peter_Spaeth]

I like that term for it, a zoom.

[doug.goodman]

For ebay style, specifically defined end time auctions, I put in a bid at the beginning, then I bid above what the item is worth to me with a few seconds remaining.

If I lose, I lose, I didn't really want to win at that price.

If I win at my max bid, then I think about other items I have won for less than I was willing to pay and feel like it averaged out.

If I win at less than my max bid, that's best.



For extended bidding type auctions, I employ the same general strategy, but bid to the next bid increment as late as possible.

My last bid is the first bid increment above what the item is worth to me.

[Exhibitman]

The auction rules change bidding strategy, which affects when bidding action takes place. For example:

Sterling: "One bid in the entire auction prior to 8:00 PM EST on September 19, this bid is all you need to qualify to bid on ANY item in the auction during the extended bidding session."

LOTG: " In order to bid on an item during the extended bidding session beginning on the date of the auction close, you must place at least one bid on that item prior to 9:00 PM Eastern on the auction closing date. If you do not bid on it by 9PM Eastern on the closing date, you cannot bid on it afterward."

I will throw out a bid in Sterling early on 1 lot then wait until the last night to bid on everything else. For LOTG, REA, etc., I may spend a couple of hours placing initial bids on 100s of lots.

[Zach Wheat]

Originally Posted by doug.goodman

For ebay style, specifically defined end time auctions, I put in a bid at the beginning, then I bid above what the item is worth to me with a few seconds remaining.

If I lose, I lose, I didn't really want to win at that price.

If I win at my max bid, then I think about other items I have won for less than I was willing to pay and feel like it averaged out.

If I win at less than my max bid, that's best.



For extended bidding type auctions, I employ the same general strategy, but bid to the next bid increment as late as possible.

My last bid is the first bid increment above what the item is worth to me.

I think Doug hits the ideal bidding style for me right on

[Snapolit1]

I’m definitely see the trend Pete identified. Particularly in modern.

When the latest stupid Superfractor 1/1 card shows up all of a sudden it’s bid up to $550,000 in a week. Why? Makes zero sense. There are only 3 or 4 people out there with that kind of cash looking to buy something like that. And I am sure they are mega-wealthy busy people and aren’t logging in to a website every night and placing meaningless bids to draw attention to something they would really like.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

In the good old PWCC days, there were certain types of cards that would run up to 90 percent right out of the gate.

These are almost always cards with extraordinary eye appeal or cards that are in high demand and that are very difficult to just find any copy of.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Snowman

These are almost always cards with extraordinary eye appeal or cards that are in high demand and that are very difficult to just find any copy of.

Non sequitur. One, what does that have to do with the bidding pattern, if I really wanted a card on ebay the last thing I would do was keep running it up and bidding against myself six hours after it was listed. Two, with PWCC it was by no means limited to special cards. Three, it seemed very frequently the bids were placed by the same bidders, and or bidders with huge numbers of retractions.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Non sequitur. One, what does that have to do with the bidding pattern, if I really wanted a card on ebay the last thing I would do was keep running it up and bidding against myself six hours after it was listed. Two, with PWCC it was by no means limited to special cards. Three, it seemed very frequently the bids were placed by the same bidders, and or bidders with huge numbers of retractions.

I'm just relaying my experiences as an observer and a bidder. Whenever I'm bidding on a card that has been run up early, it is almost always a card with remarkable eye appeal or something otherwise very difficult to find.

I'm sure there are other circumstances where cards get bid up quickly, but I don't pay attention to the modern side of the hobby much, so I don't encounter most of the shill bidding and other shenanigans. Though surely some of that exists in vintage as well, just not nearly as much IMO.

[Eric72]

Originally Posted by Snowman

...Whenever I'm bidding on a card that has been run up early, it is almost always a card with remarkable eye appeal or something otherwise very difficult to find...

For some reason, I thought you wouldn't bid on things that did not possess "remarkable eye appeal" unless they were very difficult to find.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Snowman

I'm just relaying my experiences as an observer and a bidder. Whenever I'm bidding on a card that has been run up early, it is almost always a card with remarkable eye appeal or something otherwise very difficult to find.

I'm sure there are other circumstances where cards get bid up quickly, but I don't pay attention to the modern side of the hobby much, so I don't encounter most of the shill bidding and other shenanigans. Though surely some of that exists in vintage as well, just not nearly as much IMO.

Cards with great eye appeal do tend to set records but seen way too many vintage cards that are nothing special, out of certain houses, that consistently set records that make no sense. I do not follow modern so I cannot speak to whether or not there is shill bidding going on but I am pretty confident there are houses who are allowing consignors protect their vintage consignments. IMO, shilling is not limited to age of the card.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Cards with great eye appeal do tend to set records but seen way too many vintage cards that are nothing special, out of certain houses, that consistently set records that make no sense. I do not follow modern so I cannot speak to whether or not there is shill bidding going on but I am pretty confident there are houses who are allowing consignors protect their vintage consignments. IMO, shilling is not limited to age of the card.

And to get back to the original point, even if a card is great, that doesn't explain to me why there would be frantic bidding driving it sky high in the opening hours. Saw that all the time on PWCC.