Different bidding patterns
 

This is more anecdotal than scientific, but I am frequently struck by how some cards on ebay and to an extent in auctions start out pretty slowly and either gradually run up or don't have much movement until the very end; whereas some just seem to charge out of the box and be at a high percentage of value within a day or two or few.

If I were a cynic, I would say it's sometimes (often even) the difference between legitimate bidding, and cards being pushed up by their consignors.

But of course I'm not a cynic so it's all good.

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It seems to me with auction houses there is an initial surge day one with placeholder bids, bidding slowly going up during the 3 week period the auction is open as more bidders become aware, and another bump the day before and day of auction on certain cards as bidders focus on what they want.

The true action is always extended bidding period when it goes lot by lot, although I've seen some cards sell at the bid just prior to extended bidding if they've been run up.
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If it's a card I really want then I bid somewhat high to get less eyes on the auction from those looking a bargain later. It takes a 2nd person with a bid-high(ish) mindset to make it work, though.

I want people to bow out early or decide the buy-in is already too high (or too close to it) before they bid and get reminders about it.

I wish I had any theory as to bidding patterns. We have auctions where we get to 50% of projections with a week or more left and other times we don't get there until 3 or 4 days left, yet in each case the auction ends up roughly on projection. Lately it's been even more unpredictable.

In the good old PWCC days, there were certain types of cards that would run up to 90 percent right out of the gate.

Based on the OP, I’m guessing this is intended to be an expose on shilling and other shenanigans.

So I guess we had better first decide whether there’s shilling or not. If there is shilling, then that could explain some of the zooming right out of the gate. Although there’s every possibility a good zoom could be legit, just with a couple of bidders deciding to not wait in terms of trying to out-bid each other. And there’s nothing to prevent a shill from waiting until the last minute to do their thing.

I tend to suspect that shilling is less prevalent than we fear, but probably not zero. But unless you’re the one doing the shilling, it’s hard to really know whether there’s shilling involved, or just another motivated collector you’re competing against. Even if the card comes right back onto the market, that’s not a dead giveaway that the auction was shilled, although it definitely gives you a bad taste.

I do think with eBay that sniping services make a difference, as there’s no ability to keep bidding once the auction ends. Get your bids in and that’s it. It’s not uncommon with that format to see a big jump in the last 5 seconds as the snipes come rolling in. And sometimes a couple of snipers put in ludicrous bids because they don’t want to lose, and figure no one else will be stupid enough to go that high. So one of them gets to pay 5x what it’s worth just because they didn’t want to lose. And the loser gets to have that comp thrown in their face for the next few years when they try to buy another one.

With the more traditional AH format that doesn’t allow for sniping, most auctions do seem to wait until the end, and that’s not surprising. I have participated in some serious zooms right out of the gate when some other bidder and I just decided there was no point in waiting. The other guy ended up winning, so I’m assuming he wasn’t just a shill, especially because the card didn’t come back onto the market.

I am still seeing that with a certain house but nothing like the BS that took place in the days of PWCC. No incentive for any bidder, unless it is their consignment, to see a huge run up. It is not a race.

I like that term for it, a zoom.

For ebay style, specifically defined end time auctions, I put in a bid at the beginning, then I bid above what the item is worth to me with a few seconds remaining.

If I lose, I lose, I didn't really want to win at that price.

If I win at my max bid, then I think about other items I have won for less than I was willing to pay and feel like it averaged out.

If I win at less than my max bid, that's best.



For extended bidding type auctions, I employ the same general strategy, but bid to the next bid increment as late as possible.

My last bid is the first bid increment above what the item is worth to me.

The auction rules change bidding strategy, which affects when bidding action takes place. For example:

Sterling: "One bid in the entire auction prior to 8:00 PM EST on September 19, this bid is all you need to qualify to bid on ANY item in the auction during the extended bidding session."

LOTG: " In order to bid on an item during the extended bidding session beginning on the date of the auction close, you must place at least one bid on that item prior to 9:00 PM Eastern on the auction closing date. If you do not bid on it by 9PM Eastern on the closing date, you cannot bid on it afterward."

I will throw out a bid in Sterling early on 1 lot then wait until the last night to bid on everything else. For LOTG, REA, etc., I may spend a couple of hours placing initial bids on 100s of lots.

I think Doug hits the ideal bidding style for me right on

I’m definitely see the trend Pete identified. Particularly in modern.

When the latest stupid Superfractor 1/1 card shows up all of a sudden it’s bid up to $550,000 in a week. Why? Makes zero sense. There are only 3 or 4 people out there with that kind of cash looking to buy something like that. And I am sure they are mega-wealthy busy people and aren’t logging in to a website every night and placing meaningless bids to draw attention to something they would really like.

This is exactly how I do it as well.

My guess is that bidding strategies designed to impact the motivation/behavior of other bidders are wishful thinking and in a controlled experiment would not work out any differently than bidding late.

I'm guessing the best bidding strategy is prob to bid for the first time 5 seconds before early bidding closes. In that case you have affected nothing and done nothing to draw attention to the auction.

But what fun is that.

I guess I need to devise a strategy.

You will be OK Al. I have tried many bidding strategies on eBay to scare away other bidders with no luck.:D

The phenomenon I will never understand is this (which happens ALL THE TIME...)

An item goes over a week with no bids at all. Then I place the initial bid on it. Within one minute it gets another bid (after a week or two of complete stagnancy). I can't count the number of times this has happened.

Are there really vultures who refrain from bidding for a week to 10 days, but are watching so closely that they pounce as soon as someone else bids? And what good is that strategy, given the fact that the closing is still a few days away?

What possible rationale do they have and what benefit do they derive from it?

Not a whole lot makes rational sense when it comes to bidding strategies in my opinion. I gave up on thinking much about it a long time ago :rolleyes:. I think people allow their emotions to get involved which really throws clear thinking out the window lol

I think whatever your strategy you have to figure in bidder madness during extended bidding.

I have noticed this for a long time on many sites. Not sure of the rhyme or reason, but it definitely is worth a look.

I think the bigger issue when said cards are auctioned off again in the next few months after the auctions ends. Lots of retreads show up and they show often. I am most wary of those.

Does this happen more with particular auctions?

I call them Musical Chair Comps...

No way those cards are all people legitimately trying to flip them which would require a 20 percent gain just to break even. There is no visibility at all into auctions, we don't know who consigned, we don't know who bid, we don't know who won or "won."

These are almost always cards with extraordinary eye appeal or cards that are in high demand and that are very difficult to just find any copy of.

Non sequitur. One, what does that have to do with the bidding pattern, if I really wanted a card on ebay the last thing I would do was keep running it up and bidding against myself six hours after it was listed. Two, with PWCC it was by no means limited to special cards. Three, it seemed very frequently the bids were placed by the same bidders, and or bidders with huge numbers of retractions.

Many times I visit auctions I check out "Recent Bids".

I often see something cool this way and throw down a bid. Gets me out of my usual searches.

I do appreciate how this can look odd, coming out of nowhere.

1055. The Multiple Bid Absurdity Principle
The rationale that any bid you make during the course of an auction is a wasted bid, because it harms you by needlessly and artificially raising the price of the item. Logically speaking, the ONLY bid one should ever make is an all-in, last moment snipe bid.

Here's who comes to mind, regarding that circumstance...

Huggins & Scott
Heritage
Lelands
Clean Sweep
REA
Hunt's
Mears
Memory Lane
Mile High
Hake's

Other than the fact that REA now owns Huggins, I see no commonality there. So I would say it's a widespread phenomenon. :confused:

I guess LOTG is exempt from those patterns!!??

Haha... good observation! I could not think of an instance that it happened with LOTG (and I bid with them a lot!) :D

I'm just relaying my experiences as an observer and a bidder. Whenever I'm bidding on a card that has been run up early, it is almost always a card with remarkable eye appeal or something otherwise very difficult to find.

I'm sure there are other circumstances where cards get bid up quickly, but I don't pay attention to the modern side of the hobby much, so I don't encounter most of the shill bidding and other shenanigans. Though surely some of that exists in vintage as well, just not nearly as much IMO.

With our auction this actually makes sense. If an item only gets one bid it doesn't go into extended bidding (because there can be no competition) so some people hold out hope that they can scoop it up for that one bid right before extended bidding. Basically sniping it. But as soon as someone else bids they have to get their placeholder bid in so that they can bid in extended bidding. If you have several people watching the item what you described isn't just possible, but likely.

For some reason, I thought you wouldn't bid on things that did not possess "remarkable eye appeal" unless they were very difficult to find.

I don't think Mark meant the item had NO bids and then he opened it, I think he meant there had been no ACTIVITY for a week, but he can correct me.

I used to bid mainly on eBay, where 10 years ago everybody (including me) seemed to be using a sniping service that would double or triple the auction price in the final seconds. That doesn't seem to happen as much anymore, at least on the stuff I'm selling and bidding on.

I honestly don't really like the bidding on auction houses, where you're required to make an initial bid and then there's no last minute action with the way they close. It has its benefits though.

I know many people like the never-ending extended bidding grind, but I'm 100% bid to my max before going into extended bidding or shortly afterward.

I refuse to get into that sleep-robbing dopamine rush of 15-minute doses of bidding that goes on for hours. I'm an East Coast person. I refuse to play those games for my own sanity.

"An item goes over a week with no bids at all. Then I place the initial bid on it"

Ah I missed that. But still not sure I understand it, as people would have to place an initial bid anyhow, no?

But if they're the ONLY bidder at 10pm on closing night the item closes, so if an item has no bids you can wait and hope that as it sneaks up on 10pm you can get that one bid in and win the item before extended bidding. Once someone else bids, that vain hope is shattered and now you might as well put your placeholder in.

Got it. Still, Mark says this typically happens WITHIN A MINUTE. Are people really following items that hypervigilantly and then reacting that quickly? And why wouldn't it happen with Al?

That is a great explanation as I have had that happen before just like Mark described.

Cards with great eye appeal do tend to set records but seen way too many vintage cards that are nothing special, out of certain houses, that consistently set records that make no sense. I do not follow modern so I cannot speak to whether or not there is shill bidding going on but I am pretty confident there are houses who are allowing consignors protect their vintage consignments. IMO, shilling is not limited to age of the card.

And to get back to the original point, even if a card is great, that doesn't explain to me why there would be frantic bidding driving it sky high in the opening hours. Saw that all the time on PWCC.

I have very little AH bidding experience but I tried to jack up the bids early to help drive other bidders away. I don't believe it worked in my limited experience.

On eBay early shill biding was done because with eBays algorithm it used to bring items with early bids to the top of general searches. No idea if it still does but that is how it used to work.

I never followed PWCC that closely. To your initial point, for anyone trying to pay as little as possible, it makes no sense to run up a card early and when you see it throughout particular auction houses, auction after auction, it is highly suspicious to me.

Many of the PWCC auctions were a shitshow of frantic early bidding, string bids, retractions, and bidders with massive numbers of historical retractions.

Sorry to chime back in so late...

Yes, Scott had it right. And while his explanation does make some sense, it still amazes me how quickly that competing bid comes in after a week of complete stagnancy with no bids.

Thanks for providing a potential explanation, as it's something that's confounded me for quite a while. :confused:

Yet there are/were many here who think the world of the company. LOL. Must have all been speaking from the POV of being a consignor then. I stayed clear of their listings and still do despite the company having done a Spring cleaning.

People do set up notifications, so as soon as that initial bid is placed, their phone yells at them and then they bid. It really doesn't surprise me.