If SGC Becomes No More What Happens To The Pop Report?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Snowman

And yet most well-centered cards in SGC holders also sell for more than their PSA counterpart. This is of course because centering matters more than which TPG graded it, at least for vintage cards.

As you are a data scientist, I doubt you have enough data to prove that proposition to any degree of statistical signifcance and are just going by necessarily limited personal anecdotal observation. I've seen many examples to the contrary so I can say with equal confidence that I think all things equal PSA outsells SGC. So there. Not doubting you could find many examples but I bet plenty of counterexamples could be found too.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

As you are a data scientist, I doubt you have enough data to prove that proposition to any degree of statistical signifcance and are just going by necessarily limited personal anecdotal observation. I've seen many examples to the contrary so I can say with equal confidence that I think all things equal PSA outsells SGC. So there. Not doubting you could find many examples but I bet plenty of counterexamples could be found too.

Perhaps I should be more specific. With the exception of cards that make the short list as registry chase cards, the data does show that a dead-centered SGC card will outsell an off-centered PSA copy in the same grade nearly every time for HOFers and other cards with strong demand. You can certainly find exceptions to this rule, but in general, it's true. It probably doesn't apply to commons though, or to ultra high grade vintage cards as though are mostly registry bids. But if you take a 52 Topps Willie Mays SGC 5 that is perfectly centered and run it next to a PSA 5 with 80/20 centering in the same auction, not only will it outsell the PSA 5, it will often double it.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Perhaps I should be more specific. With the exception of cards that make the short list as registry chase cards, the data does show that a dead-centered SGC card will outsell an off-centered PSA copy in the same grade nearly every time for HOFers and other cards with strong demand. You can certainly find exceptions to this rule, but in general, it's true. It probably doesn't apply to commons though, or to ultra high grade vintage cards as though are mostly registry bids. But if you take a 52 Topps Willie Mays SGC 5 that is perfectly centered and run it next to a PSA 5 with 80/20 centering in the same auction, not only will it outsell the PSA 5, it will often double it.

Just out of curiosity, what percentage of 52T cards are perfectly centered?

My recollection based on your past studies is that the percentage is incredibly small. Like a tiny fraction of a percent. And I've got to imagine an even smaller fraction currently resides in SGC holders.

Based on those estimates, it seems like your hypothetical fact pattern is unlikely to occur more than once in a blue moon.

But it's definitely a fun thought exercise!

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by raulus

Just out of curiosity, what percentage of 52T cards are perfectly centered?

My recollection based on your past studies is that the percentage is incredibly small. Like a tiny fraction of a percent. And I've got to imagine an even smaller fraction currently resides in SGC holders.

Based on those estimates, it seems like your hypothetical fact pattern is unlikely to occur more than once in a blue moon.

But it's definitely a fun thought exercise!

It depends on which print run you're looking at. For example, the 3rd series cards with the cream backs are much tougher to find centered than series 1. For Jackie Robinson and Mickey Mantle, there are only about 25 or so copies with 52/48 or better centering on all of VCP in grades 3 or higher (and only 9 50/50 Jackies).

Other sets are less affected, but in general, I find that most sets fall somewhere between 1 to 5% of cards being centered.

If you were to ask how often a centered 52 Mantle shows up in an SGC holder next to an OC Mantle in the same grade in a PSA holder in the same auction, the answer is "not very often". But if you expand that to ask how often any key vintage HOF card shows up centered in an SGC holder in any grade next to an OC copy in a PSA holder with the same grade in the same auction, a fair answer is "at least somewhat regularly".

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by raulus

Just out of curiosity, what percentage of 52T cards are perfectly centered?

My recollection based on your past studies is that the percentage is incredibly small. Like a tiny fraction of a percent. And I've got to imagine an even smaller fraction currently resides in SGC holders.

Based on those estimates, it seems like your hypothetical fact pattern is unlikely to occur more than once in a blue moon.

But it's definitely a fun thought exercise!

Definitely a small percentage, and of course it depends on what you consider perfectly centered. Snowman says he has 50/50 cards, but I've never seen him post one. This 52T Bruce Edwards, which is in a PSA 5.5 slab, is 48/52 top to bottom and 49/51 left to right, with a slight tilt from top left to bottom right. To give you an idea of rarity, I would guess I've looked at 30-40,000 52T cards, and have 50 this nice.

I'm not sure what to make of that though, in terms of overall percentages. I expect that the really nicely centered cards tend to stay in collections longer than the run-of-the-mill cards.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

Definitely a small percentage, and of course it depends on what you consider perfectly centered. Snowman says he has 50/50 cards, but I've never seen him post one. This 52T Bruce Edwards, which is in a PSA 5.5 slab, is 48/52 top to bottom and 49/51 left to right, with a slight tilt from top left to bottom right. To give you an idea of rarity, I would guess I've looked at 30-40,000 52T cards, and have 50 this nice.

I'm not sure what to make of that though, in terms of overall percentages. I expect that the really nicely centered cards tend to stay in collections longer than the run-of-the-mill cards.

Ya, good points. Truly 50/50 perfectly centered cards in every direction, you almost never see (unless they're trimmed). Most of mine are more like 52/48 or better. But there is certainly a selection bias with respect to which cards actually surface on the market because people tend to hold onto their best cards. Evidence of this fact can be seen when a panic market sets in like we had at the end of 2023. I checked off numerous cards on my list that I found centered copies of which I had been searching for years for that all surfaced at the same time because people were panic selling. It shakes the good stuff loose.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Perhaps I should be more specific. With the exception of cards that make the short list as registry chase cards, the data does show that a dead-centered SGC card will outsell an off-centered PSA copy in the same grade nearly every time for HOFers and other cards with strong demand. You can certainly find exceptions to this rule, but in general, it's true. It probably doesn't apply to commons though, or to ultra high grade vintage cards as though are mostly registry bids. But if you take a 52 Topps Willie Mays SGC 5 that is perfectly centered and run it next to a PSA 5 with 80/20 centering in the same auction, not only will it outsell the PSA 5, it will often double it.

What about an SGC 5 and a PSA 5 that are centered about the same? PSA will sell for much more usually, yes?

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

What about an SGC 5 and a PSA 5 that are centered about the same? PSA will sell for much more usually, yes?

Yes, if you take two cards with very similar eye appeal in the same grade, the PSA slabbed card will almost always outsell the SGC one.

The problem though is that people then use this knowledge to make faulty assumptions about where they should send their cards for grading to maximize profit when they wish to sell. That's a different question, and it's one which the fact above is insufficient for answering.

[The Detroit Collector]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Perhaps I should be more specific. With the exception of cards that make the short list as registry chase cards, the data does show that a dead-centered SGC card will outsell an off-centered PSA copy in the same grade nearly every time for HOFers and other cards with strong demand. You can certainly find exceptions to this rule, but in general, it's true. It probably doesn't apply to commons though, or to ultra high grade vintage cards as though are mostly registry bids. But if you take a 52 Topps Willie Mays SGC 5 that is perfectly centered and run it next to a PSA 5 with 80/20 centering in the same auction, not only will it outsell the PSA 5, it will often double it.

I think your argument works only for high end cards, but I don't think that's the case of mid to low end HOF cards. But if you have an example of the sales of a mid to low end graded PSA and SGC with difference in centering, I wouldn't mind seeing it.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by The Detroit Collector

I think your argument works only for high end cards, but I don't think that's the case of mid to low end HOF cards. But if you have an example of the sales of a mid to low end graded PSA and SGC with difference in centering, I wouldn't mind seeing it.

The centering premium has a distribution that applies mostly to mid grade cards. The premiums are usually very low for cards that otherwise look beat up. Maybe 1.2x comps or so for something like a typical PSA 1.5. The premiums start to get big for really nice looking 3s and 4s though. Often double comps, and for certain cards that are extremely difficult to find centered you can even see triple or quadruple comps for these grades. You get some big premiums for PSA 5s as well. But those premiums start to come down for 6s. Those usually get more like 1.5x comps than 2x. And it comes down further for 7s and 8s which get about 1.3x comps or so.

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by Snowman

The centering premium has a distribution that applies mostly to mid grade cards. The premiums are usually very low for cards that otherwise look beat up. Maybe 1.2x comps or so for something like a typical PSA 1.5. The premiums start to get big for really nice looking 3s and 4s though. Often double comps, and for certain cards that are extremely difficult to find centered you can even see triple or quadruple comps for these grades. You get some big premiums for PSA 5s as well. But those premiums start to come down for 6s. Those usually get more like 1.5x comps than 2x. And it comes down further for 7s and 8s which get about 1.3x comps or so.

I think the multiples are probably higher for the top stars. For example, I would happily take all your centered 7 and 8 Mantles at 1.3 VCP.

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[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

I think the multiples are probably higher for the top stars. For example, I would happily take all your centered 7 and 8 Mantles at 1.3 VCP.

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Ya definitely. Most buyers won't pay big premiums for centered commons but they'll pay up for centered Mantles. That said, if you're patient, you'll usually find someone that will pay a big premium for centered commons as well. Those buyers are out there. There's just not nearly as many of them.