The future of Shohei Ohtani

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by G1911

This will probably end up as one of the worst contracts for a team ever signed if measured by on the field performance. It may well generate a profit in the end from all the race/nationalist fans who will buy the merch and follow the team. I would think that they very carefully did the math to ensure they won’t be losing that much in projected gains.

It would be interesting to know to what extent the profit projection depends on him staying healthy for how long.

[mrreality68]

Huge contract and scary but I think he will age well with it.
1. He is an internationally famous and now on a Big Market Team that always makes playoff. So the market revenue, etc will be thru the roof
2. He plays DH so he does not have the same wear and tear on body that players that play the field so he will less likely to hurt to the same extent as others.
3. As a pitcher(not in 2024) he pitches every 6 days so again less mileage on his body
4. He diet and exercise regimen is amazing so if anyone is going to play well on until the end of the contract it is him.
5. The fact that a lot of money is deferred helps keep LA with financial flexibly to get other players( and Right now they really need pitching)

[mrreality68]

Huge contract and scary but I think he will age well with it.
1. He is an internationally famous and now on a Big Market Team that always makes playoff. So the market revenue, etc will be thru the roof
2. He plays DH so he does not have the same wear and tear on body that players that play the field so he will less likely to hurt to the same extent as others.
3. As a pitcher(not in 2024) he pitches every 6 days so again less mileage on his body
4. He diet and exercise regimen is amazing so if anyone is going to play well on until the end of the contract it is him.
5. The fact that a lot of money is deferred helps keep LA with financial flexibly to get other players( and Right now they really need pitching)

[bk400]

Some humble thoughts / questions:

1. The Dodgers are going to have a menacing top of the order. Do you bat Ohtani second or third?

2. I think that whether Ohtani becomes a villain in the sport depends on how he handles himself, both on the field and off. If he starts to suck at the plate, that would obviously make everyone look bad. But if he performs like he has over the past three years at the plate and the Dodgers win the pennant (or more) next year, I think the headline $700 million figure will fade into the background. I reference again the poll done by The Athletic which found that 45% of major league players would choose to build a team around him. That kind of says a lot.

Off the field, if he douches out, that would be bad. But as others have pointed out, he seems to be widely adored, and that is usually not the case for closet douchebags. I wouldn't be surprised if you start seeing Ohtani-funded youth baseball programs not only in Japan (which he's done), but also in the LA area. Those sorts of actions will probably help him as well.

3. Someone implied that Ohtani's value is propped up by racial and nationalistic factors. I suppose there is some truth to that given how much Ohtani means to Japan (a huge economy with a relatively affluent fan base) and the Asian American baseball fan base in the US. But I'll go out on a limb and say that the hype around Ohtani would be same if not more if he were a white or black American.

4. I think people hate the Yankees because they've won 27 titles and the visceral disdain that Mets and Red Sox fans feel toward them are magnified in the media and the cultural lexicon. I suspect that a lot of people also find it annoying that the Yankees are the preferred team for non-baseball people trying to appropriate baseball culture. You know, like those fashionista types who are photographed wearing the pink, sparkly NY caps -- and the politicians....

[Seven]

Complete side note, My only gripe with these contracts nowadays is that I think too much money has permeated the sport, but then again the same thing could be said about life itself.

Teams should not be worth billions of dollars, athletes shouldn't be paid millions, a afternoon at the ballpark should still be an affordable option for a family of four. Gambling should not be as pervasive as it is. These are more my issues with society today though, rather than the contract itself.

The Dodgers lineup will be dangerous. They better hope, for their sake, that he's able to pitch again. Otherwise, he's not worth the money that he was given.

[packs]

Guys I don't think you can look at the contract as Ohtani has to be good enough on the field to be worth 70 million dollars. I don't think anyone can be good enough on the field to earn 70 million through performance only. He'd have to hit 50 homers, win 20 games and be a top 2 MVP finalist every season for the next 10 years for his performance to be worth the money.

This is a business decision. Ohtani is the most popular baseball player in America and Japan. He dominates the entire world-wide market for the sport. I would guess he will generate in excess of 70 million for the Dodgers next year and pay for himself.

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by packs

This is a business decision. Ohtani is the most popular baseball player in America and Japan. He dominates the entire world-wide market for the sport. I would guess he will generate in excess of 70 million for the Dodgers next year and pay for himself.

This is exactly the point, he is essentially free. It had to be a California team for proximity to Japanese fans and the new product and distribution sales will more than make up for it. The only issue here is structuring salary and keeping luxury taxes under control. That's why my main interest in this is the dynamics of pay structure in the contact out of curiosity.

[cgjackson222]

Some historical perspective from Joe Posnanski's blog:

"On March 8, 1930, Babe Ruth signed a two-year, $160,000 contract with the New York Yankees. This is probably the first famous sports contract in American history, but what is not as well remembered is that Ruth actually settled for that contract. He had stubbornly held out for months and had already turned down this exact contract. He wanted a three-year deal at $85,000 a year.

But as spring training began, Ruth began to waver. Sportswriters were in his ear telling him that owner Jacob Ruppert — famously known as “the Colonel” — would never give in to his demands and that $80,000 was a whole lot of money.

And on March 8, Ruth showed up at the Yankees’ spring training facility in St. Petersburg, Fla. — in cream-colored golf knickers, gray stockings, black-and-white-striped shoes and a dark jacket, according to the New York Daily News — and humbly tapped Ruppert on the shoulder and said: “My dear Colonel, could I see you for about 10 minutes?”

Five minutes later, they emerged from the meeting and Ruppert grandiosely pronounced: “Gentlemen, all I have to say is that Mr. Ruth has agreed to that two-year contract.”

At which point, Ruth reportedly said: “Hell’s bells? What time is it? Quarter after one? Hey, I gotta beat it to the ballpark!”

It was the biggest sports contract ever signed to that point — about $1.35 million in today’s dollars about $10,000 more per year than Ruth had been making. The big-city and small-town newspapers across the country — to offer some perspective about how much money that was — pointed out that Ruth would be drawing $5,000 more per year than President Herbert Hoover himself.

As the years went on, the contrast between Ruth’s salary and Hoover’s led to one of baseball’s all-time stories, one you’ve probably heard. Supposedly, Ruth was confronted with the fact that he would be getting paid more than President Hoover. He huffed and responded, “Hell, why not? I had a better year than he did.”

Not to be a party pooper, but that probably never happened. For one thing,

I cannot find an instance of Ruth saying it; the story didn’t emerge until the late 1940s, when Ruth was dying. In fact, the story only emerged because New York sportswriter Tom Meany kept telling it in his banquet speeches. In Meany’s version of the story, it was actually Ruppert himself who had told Ruth that he couldn’t pay him that much money because it was more than the President of the United States, to which Ruth replied, in some form, “So what? I had a better year.” But we can be almost entirely certain that didn’t happen; Ruth was not that sort of conversationalist and, as we know, Ruppert readily offered him $80,000 per year and Ruth turned it down.

My guess is that Meany came up with the funny line himself during some bull session with other sportswriters and then attributed it to Ruth because it sounded better that way.

Anyway, to the point: In 1930, Babe Ruth made $5,000 more per year than the President of the United States.

In 2024, Shohei Ohtani will make — I kid you not — 175 times more than the President of the United States.

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by Seven

The Dodgers lineup will be dangerous. They better hope, for their sake, that he's able to pitch again. Otherwise, he's not worth the money that he was given.

When it comes down to it...the Dodgers, and every other MLB team is a business. If he sells a Billion $'s in merchandise for them in the next 10 years, they really don't care whether he pitches again or not.

Personally, I have a hard time believing he's even going to be an extremely effective hitter his 1st year back from Tommy John surgery.

He's a left-handed batter, which means he uses his right arm for his extension and follow through. He's going to have to be very careful he doesn't hyperextend it while he's still healing from the surgery. I know it's a different motion from throwing, but he's still got to be careful.

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

When it comes down to it...the Dodgers, and every other MLB team is a business. If he sells a Billion $'s in merchandise for them in the next 10 years, they really don't care whether he pitches again or not.

Personally, I have a hard time believing he's even going to be an extremely effective hitter his 1st year back from Tommy John surgery.

He's a left-handed batter, which means he uses his right arm for his extension and follow through. He's going to have to be very careful he doesn't hyperextend it while he's still healing from the surgery. I know it's a different motion from throwing, but he's still got to be careful.

Bryce Harper came back from Tommy John surgery in about 5 1/2 months. He hit for a decent average early on but didn't have much power for his first few months back. By the end of the season, he seemed to be back to his normal self hitting. It will be interesting to see if Ohtani has a similar recovery and if his power will also take more time to return than his hitting does.

[jayshum]

$680 out of $700 million deferred. That's hard to believe.

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by Seven

Complete side note, My only gripe with these contracts nowadays is that I think too much money has permeated the sport, but then again the same thing could be said about life itself.



Teams should not be worth billions of dollars, athletes shouldn't be paid millions, a afternoon at the ballpark should still be an affordable option for a family of four. Gambling should not be as pervasive as it is. These are more my issues with society today though, rather than the contract itself.



The Dodgers lineup will be dangerous. They better hope, for their sake, that he's able to pitch again. Otherwise, he's not worth the money that he was given.

Yep. Capitalism sucks.

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[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

Yep. Capitalism sucks.

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Capitalism is the only thing that allows me to buy baseball cards.

[Seven]

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

Yep. Capitalism sucks.

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I wouldn't say Capitalism sucks, not to get political, but any sort of system/organization without any kind of regulation leaves itself open to corruption and rampant abuse. You wouldn't mind the players salaries, team values, and price of tickets/ballpark concessions, if the average persons money rose with the times. But that's not a discussion for here.

I wouldn't be surprised if deferment is addressed in the next CBA. I can't imagine this makes many people happy.

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by Seven

I wouldn't say Capitalism sucks, not to get political, but any sort of system/organization without any kind of regulation leaves itself open to corruption and rampant abuse. You wouldn't mind the players salaries, team values, and price of tickets/ballpark concessions, if the average persons money rose with the times. But that's not a discussion for here.

I wouldn't be surprised if deferment is addressed in the next CBA. I can't imagine this makes many people happy.

Oh my! Dodgers are DEFERRING COMPENSATION!! Can you believe it!! What rampant corruption and abuse!! I don't like this at all!