The future of Shohei Ohtani

[Peter_Spaeth]

He has been huge of course in the card world. What percentage on average do his rookie cards drop now?

[bk400]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

He has been huge of course in the card world. What percentage on average do his rookie cards drop now?

Doesn't seem to be a lot of unusual selling pressure in his higher grade rookie cards so far. Then again, people are still spending $150 on Wander Franco cards over the past 12 hours.

[Shoeless Moe]

He definitely will sign for less now. Not even a question. If he goes from being a 2 way player, and significant draw because of that, to now an injury risk, granted a very good position player, or worse just a DH, no way he gets what he would have gotten.

Unless one of 2 last place New York teams do what they usually do, overspend and lose.

But he has said he wants to win (toss out both NY) so only East Coast team I see him going to is Baltimore (maybe Boston), but more likely he'll land on the West Coast. 3-4-5 teams equal to or better than NY teams so why head East. Doesn't even make sense to consider, both NY teams 2-3 years (minimum) away from being competitive (WS bound)again, in regards to the divisions they are in too.

[packs]

Originally Posted by Shoeless Moe

He definitely will sign for less now. Not even a question. If he goes from being a 2 way player, and significant draw because of that, to now an injury risk, just a very good outfielder, or even worse just a DH, no way he gets what he would have gotten.

Unless one of 2 last place New York teams do what they usually do, overspend and lose.

But he has said he wants to win (toss out both NY) so only East Coast team I see him going to is Baltimore, but more likely he'll land on the West Coast. 4-5 teams equal to or better than NY teams so why head East. Doesn't even make sense to consider, both NY teams 2-3 years (minimum) away from being competitive (WS bound)again, in regards to the divisions they are in too.

How can you say both NY teams are far off from competing when the offseason hasn't even happened yet? The Yankees were playing in the ALCS just last year. And when you're talking about the Yankees you aren't talking about a team who has to see if prospects pan out. This offseason has a large free agent pool of quality players. This is just something people who don't like the Yankees say about them.

[jingram058]

Originally Posted by packs

How can you say both NY teams are far off from competing when the offseason hasn't even happened yet? The Yankees were playing in the ALCS just last year. And when you're talking about the Yankees you aren't talking about a team who has to see if prospects pan out. This offseason has a large free agent pool of quality players. This is just something people who don't like the Yankees say about them.

+1 on that

[packs]

The Orioles haven't appeared in the postseason in 7 years, but yeah, that's the most logical AL East destination for a guy looking to win.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Fear the Bird.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by packs

The Orioles haven't appeared in the postseason in 7 years, but yeah, that's the most logical AL East destination for a guy looking to win.

The Yankees are in last place and have a losing record. They have 2 starters with a league average OPS. Doesn't mean they will continue to suck, but last place teams are not usually considered winning destinations. The Orioles are in 1st place with a balanced, younger team with most of them outperforming the league.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by packs

How can you say both NY teams are far off from competing when the offseason hasn't even happened yet? The Yankees were playing in the ALCS just last year. And when you're talking about the Yankees you aren't talking about a team who has to see if prospects pan out. This offseason has a large free agent pool of quality players. This is just something people who don't like the Yankees say about them.

Are we talking about the New York Yankees? They are arguably further off from competing than the Mets are, given that they don't like to spend money anymore and that every team in their division is clearly better. They will need a massive shift (and a bunch of new players) to have a prayer of competing in 2024.

Going back to Ohtani, I very much doubt he will go anywhere except the west coast. I also think, even with the injury, he will set the record for most total dollars in a contract.

[packs]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

Are we talking about the New York Yankees? They are arguably further off from competing than the Mets are, given that they don't like to spend money anymore and that every team in their division is clearly better. They will need a massive shift (and a bunch of new players) to have a prayer of competing in 2024.

Going back to Ohtani, I very much doubt he will go anywhere except the west coast. I also think, even with the injury, he will set the record for most total dollars in a contract.

Last year, the Yankees played in the ALCS. Their roster this year isn't all that different. The difference are injuries and lapses in production from most of the same players who took the team to the ALCS last year.

The Mets lost in the Wild Card series last year, totally revamped their roster, then traded their biggest signings away.

So, why are the Mets better?

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by packs

Last year, the Yankees played in the ALCS. Their roster this year isn't all that different. The difference are injuries and lapses in production from most of the same players who took the team to the ALCS last year.

The Mets lost in the Wild Card series last year, totally revamped their roster, then traded their biggest signings away.

So, why are the Mets better?

The Mets aren't better, but they have an owner who is willing to spend (like the Yankees used to have). For this reason I believe they are closer to competing next year and beyond than the Yankees are.

Half the Yankees position players are dead weight (including Stanton), their pitching staff is in shambles (don't tell me you trust Severino or Rodon even a little bit), and their bullpen is inconsistent, especially at the back end.

I'll bet on the team that is going to pay big money for FAs and have Edwin Diaz back for next year and beyond.

[Shoeless Moe]

Originally Posted by packs

How can you say both NY teams are far off from competing when the offseason hasn't even happened yet? The Yankees were playing in the ALCS just last year. And when you're talking about the Yankees you aren't talking about a team who has to see if prospects pan out. This offseason has a large free agent pool of quality players. This is just something people who don't like the Yankees say about them.

Yes Yankees were in the ALCS last year, but did you forget how awful they looked. They didn't belong on the same field as the Astros. And they've regressed this year, so if you think they are on the cusp of the World Series, with teams like Baltimore, Houston, Texas, Seattle, Tampa, Toronto, and Minnesota all ahead of them enjoy your delusions.


Had to re-check. They lost to the Astros 4 games to 0. Struck out 17 times in Game 1, 13 times in Game 2. Batted .162 for the Series.

They are 23rd in runs scored this year, behind the Rockies and Nationals. 29th in team batting average, ahead of only the A's.

Yep they are on the cusp alright.

[packs]

Of all the teams you mentioned ahead of the Yankees only the Astros have won a World Series in the last 30 years.

[Shoeless Moe]

Right, I'm talking about the present time and near future. The Yankees have all these teams to pass. So it's not like they are knocking on the door.

That offense sucks. Surely you can acknowledge that.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

He has been huge of course in the card world. What percentage on average do his rookie cards drop now?

There's a Blowout poll about Ohtani card price changes.

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1566180

Spoiler alert, most people so far think 20-40%, with a bunch of people 0-20%.

[packs]

The last time his market tanked I managed to pick this up for $250. I'd do it again:

[bk400]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

There's a Blowout poll about Ohtani card price changes.

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1566180

Spoiler alert, most people so far think 20-40%, with a bunch of people 0-20%.

Interesting poll -- Should be fun to see how the market speaks over time. If he never throws another pitch, he's still a guy who won (assuming he wins this year) two MVPs as a two-way player, which as we all know hasn't been done in three generations. Juan Gonzales, Dale Murphy and Roger Maris are the 3 two-time MVPs not in the Hall. Granted, they have pretty strong records. But they didn't also pitch.

If Ohtani's downside as a player from here is 5 years as a poor man's Ichiro -- plus 20-35 home runs per year -- he's probably still a first ballot hall of famer.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by bk400

Interesting poll -- Should be fun to see how the market speaks over time. If he never throws another pitch, he's still a guy who won (assuming he wins this year) two MVPs as a two-way player, which as we all know hasn't been done in three generations. Juan Gonzales, Dale Murphy and Roger Maris are the 3 two-time MVPs not in the Hall. Granted, they have pretty strong records. But they didn't also pitch.

If Ohtani's downside as a player from here is 5 years as a poor man's Ichiro -- plus 20-35 home runs per year -- he's probably still a first ballot hall of famer.

Sports Colectors Daily doesn't think the injury should have much impact on Ohtani's card prices. And so far it hasn't.

https://www.sportscollectorsdaily.co...80005-83287939

[mrreality68]

I do not think it will impact his cards
1. He has already made a splash as a 2 way player for many years now.
2. Set many records and compared to Babe Ruth often
3 already has 1 MVP and a strong case for a 2nd.
4. May not pitch next hit but can still hit
5. Projected to pitch in 2025
6. Very popular player
7. If he gets on a winning team will only get more visibility

[Peter_Spaeth]

If going forward he is only a DH, I think his cards will drop relative to the market. And even more if for some insane reason he stays with the Angels.

[packs]

I don't know. I kind of feel like Ohtani has already done enough on the mound vis-a-vis his card prices. Ruth only pitched as a pitcher for 5 full seasons.

Ohtani will never be Ruth in the box but if he hits 30-40 homers a year for the next four or five years, he'll have hit aver 300 homers before his 35th birthday and have pitched more than 400 innings.

I think he's a unicorn type of player no matter what he does so long as he's decent at one of the skills. Mostly because he'll have already won 2 MVPs as a two-way player (assuming he wins this year).