Poll: Final Hammer Price - 1914 BN Babe Ruth vs the 1952 Rosen Topps Mantle

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Ya. Now PSA is lumping in POOR, FAIR, GOOD, AND VG cards all into PSA 1 holders in order to make room for the EXMT cards they're slabbing as 4s. I honestly thought they would have corrected this by now. It's really baffling.

I have heard, and no idea of truth, that they are using machine grading in the first instance on larger subs which I guess grades low because it deducts for trivial specks and the like on vintage; and that some graders don't bother with an independent assessment.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I have heard, and no idea of truth, that they are using machine grading in the first instance on larger subs which I guess grades low because it deducts for trivial specks and the like on vintage; and that some graders don't bother with an independent assessment.

This isn't actually true. It's just a rumor going around Blowout from people who don't understand the capabilities. They're not using Genamint to grade cards at all.

[Snowman]

Another interesting question worth pondering is what would the SGC 9.5 Mantle sell for today if it were on the block?

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Another interesting question worth pondering is what would the SGC 9.5 Mantle sell for today if it were on the block?

Good question. I think 10-13 million, not much of a drop if at all.

My reasoning is that I do not believe any of the 3 psa 10s are coming to sale anytime soon. This was the best of the best in a sale forum.

[bcbgcbrcb]

Based on what happened with the Ruth card last night, the next ultra high grade 52T Mantle price should be way down as well as the next T206 Wagner. Thoughts on this?

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by bcbgcbrcb

Based on what happened with the Ruth card last night, the next ultra high grade 52T Mantle price should be way down as well as the next T206 Wagner. Thoughts on this?

This card was purchased for about $5mm less than two years ago. Last night it sells for $7.2mm - a $2.2mm (44%) increase in two years, which is 22% per year. How on god’s green earth is that result a “failure”? It isn’t. Instead, there was a ton of hype and the result did not meet the hype. But the result was very good. The hype was BS. The BN Ruth was worth $5mm two years ago. Now it’s worth $7.2mm. Seems to me, that is pretty darn positive

[mrreality68]

Strong price regardless if even many of us expected higher

Just got surprised and a little disappointed to see no slugfest or bidding in extended time.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

This card was purchased for about $5mm less than two years ago. Last night it sells for $7.2mm - a $2.2mm (44%) increase in two years, which is 22% per year. How on god’s green earth is that result a “failure”? It isn’t. Instead, there was a ton of hype and the result did not meet the hype. But the result was very good. The hype was BS. The BN Ruth was worth $5mm two years ago. Now it’s worth $7.2mm. Seems to me, that is pretty darn positive

I’m not familiar with the terms of the private sale, but some of the other posts around here are quoting $6M for that private sale. Not sure which one is accurate or if any of us know for sure. But it seems like it would make a big difference in the gain to the seller, particularly if it was really $6M.

Second, some part of the $7.2M is going to the AH, and not to the seller. Even if it’s only 5% of the hammer, that’s $300K, which reduces the seller’s take a bit. Again, especially if the purchase price was $6M.

Third, $7.2M is only a disappointment when most of the talk in the press was for $10M+. Whether the consignor really expected to get that much is anyone’s guess. But if he bought into the National hype and publicity machine, then I’m guessing he feels like $7.2M is on the low end.

Finally, compared to everyone else who has been banking 100% to 300%+ gains over the last few years, 44% (or possibly less) probably feels like losing money.

[Vintageclout]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

This card was purchased for about $5mm less than two years ago. Last night it sells for $7.2mm - a $2.2mm (44%) increase in two years, which is 22% per year. How on god’s green earth is that result a “failure”? It isn’t. Instead, there was a ton of hype and the result did not meet the hype. But the result was very good. The hype was BS. The BN Ruth was worth $5mm two years ago. Now it’s worth $7.2mm. Seems to me, that is pretty darn positive

Spot on Ryan! Also, consider that the BN Ruth (in the exact same grade) outperformed the SGC 3 T206 Wagner also sold by REA a few years ago by $0.6 million. The Wagner & 1952 Topps Mantle are the undisputed cornerstone cards in the hobby. Thus, this $7.2 million sale should be viewed as a major hobby success. We all got caught up in the “hype” of a potential eight-figure+ sale (including myself), ultimately tainting a solid $7.2 million pricing point. Crazy.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Snowman

This isn't actually true. It's just a rumor going around Blowout from people who don't understand the capabilities. They're not using Genamint to grade cards at all.

Your source?

[raulus]

Welp!

$7.2M, with the juice.

The crash is here!!

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by raulus

Welp!

$7.2M, with the juice.

The crash is here!!

Let the spin begin.

[MACollector]

I don't think it's a sign of a crash - the estimate of over $10m never made sense to me. Prices are down from 21/22 and the seller paid $6m supposedly to buy it back in 2021. $7.2m isn't bad. Not sure why it would have sold for 2x a price when cards were peak covid heights...

[chadeast]

I thought that not selling the other BN lots was an odd choice (high reserves not met). It seems unlikely that they'll get more in an auction without the star attraction to carry them along. The reserve does help to explain why they were sold in a lot, I think. The seller was not prepared to sell the non-Ruths for what they saw as "low" final bids.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by MACollector

I don't think it's a sign of a crash - the estimate of over $10m never made sense to me. Prices are down from 21/22 and the seller paid $6m supposedly to buy it back in 2021. $7.2m isn't bad. Not sure why it would have sold for 2x a price when cards were peak covid heights...

I think some people feel elite cards are their own submarket and just keep going up independent of the overall card market.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I think some people feel elite cards are their own submarket and just keep going up independent of the overall card market.

10M wasn't a bad estimate as it turned out. A million here, a million there, and pretty soon you're talking about real money!

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Your source?

Experience from my line of work and hearing Nat Turner expressly state that they are not using it to grade cards in multiple podcast interviews.

It's not possible to grade cards with the type of scans that PSA uses. No matter how high-def the images are. You need to have a machine that takes numerous images from every different angle with light reflected at different angles as well, and then convolve those images to create a topographic map like TAG Grading does in order to even begin to grade cards. And it's just too big of a hill to climb when it comes to vintage cards because of the surfaces.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Experience from my line of work and hearing Nat Turner expressly state that they are not using it to grade cards in multiple podcast interviews.

It's not possible to grade cards with the type of scans that PSA uses. No matter how high-def the images are. You need to have a machine that takes numerous images from every different angle with light reflected at different angles as well, and then convolve those images to create a topographic map like TAG Grading does in order to even begin to grade cards. And it's just too big of a hill to climb when it comes to vintage cards because of the surfaces.

OK thanks for explaining. i'll check to see if there are any sources for guys saying otherwise. I don't necessarily trust PSA itself to be truthful, place more stock in your views informed by your expertise.

So do you think graders just have no clue how to grade vintage? Lots of stories, from reliable sources, about long time dealers getting absolutely screwed on subs and getting on average 2-3 grades lower than they expected even allowing for some tighter grading.