Poll: Final Hammer Price - 1914 BN Babe Ruth vs the 1952 Rosen Topps Mantle

[bcbgcbrcb]

Based on what happened with the Ruth card last night, the next ultra high grade 52T Mantle price should be way down as well as the next T206 Wagner. Thoughts on this?

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by bcbgcbrcb

Based on what happened with the Ruth card last night, the next ultra high grade 52T Mantle price should be way down as well as the next T206 Wagner. Thoughts on this?

This card was purchased for about $5mm less than two years ago. Last night it sells for $7.2mm - a $2.2mm (44%) increase in two years, which is 22% per year. How on god’s green earth is that result a “failure”? It isn’t. Instead, there was a ton of hype and the result did not meet the hype. But the result was very good. The hype was BS. The BN Ruth was worth $5mm two years ago. Now it’s worth $7.2mm. Seems to me, that is pretty darn positive

[mrreality68]

Strong price regardless if even many of us expected higher

Just got surprised and a little disappointed to see no slugfest or bidding in extended time.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

This card was purchased for about $5mm less than two years ago. Last night it sells for $7.2mm - a $2.2mm (44%) increase in two years, which is 22% per year. How on god’s green earth is that result a “failure”? It isn’t. Instead, there was a ton of hype and the result did not meet the hype. But the result was very good. The hype was BS. The BN Ruth was worth $5mm two years ago. Now it’s worth $7.2mm. Seems to me, that is pretty darn positive

I’m not familiar with the terms of the private sale, but some of the other posts around here are quoting $6M for that private sale. Not sure which one is accurate or if any of us know for sure. But it seems like it would make a big difference in the gain to the seller, particularly if it was really $6M.

Second, some part of the $7.2M is going to the AH, and not to the seller. Even if it’s only 5% of the hammer, that’s $300K, which reduces the seller’s take a bit. Again, especially if the purchase price was $6M.

Third, $7.2M is only a disappointment when most of the talk in the press was for $10M+. Whether the consignor really expected to get that much is anyone’s guess. But if he bought into the National hype and publicity machine, then I’m guessing he feels like $7.2M is on the low end.

Finally, compared to everyone else who has been banking 100% to 300%+ gains over the last few years, 44% (or possibly less) probably feels like losing money.

[molenick]

I just realized that the Dunn also did not meet its reserve. The high bid was $24.6K (with the premium) and (as others pointed out about the 13-card lot) the only thing special about this card was the association with Ruth, so the best way to sell it was at the same time. It will be interesting to see if the 14 unsold cards show up soon in another auction or if they just disappear for awhile.

[calvindog]

Originally Posted by raulus

I’m not familiar with the terms of the private sale, but some of the other posts around here are quoting $6M for that private sale. Not sure which one is accurate or if any of us know for sure. But it seems like it would make a big difference in the gain to the seller, particularly if it was really $6M.

Second, some part of the $7.2M is going to the AH, and not to the seller. Even if it’s only 5% of the hammer, that’s $300K, which reduces the seller’s take a bit. Again, especially if the purchase price was $6M.

Third, $7.2M is only a disappointment when most of the talk in the press was for $10M+. Whether the consignor really expected to get that much is anyone’s guess. But if he bought into the National hype and publicity machine, then I’m guessing he feels like $7.2M is on the low end.

Finally, compared to everyone else who has been banking 100% to 300%+ gains over the last few years, 44% (or possibly less) probably feels like losing money.

Which part of the $7.2M is going to the auction house? The $0 part?

[raulus]

Originally Posted by calvindog

Which part of the $7.2M is going to the auction house? The $0 part?

HA.

Typically an AH is not operated on an eleemosynary basis. My assumption is that they would get at least 5% of the $6M hammer. Said another way, the AH might only keep 5% of the 20% BP. But I guess you never know on a piece like this precisely what the parties negotiated.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Why say charitable when you can say eleemosynary?

[Fred]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Why say charitable when you can say eleemosynary?

Originally Posted by calvindog

REA received more publicity than it’s ever gotten in its entire existence with this Ruth card - and Brian was fantastic with it. REA made huge strides in reaching areas of the marketplace that no other AH besides Christie’s and Sotheby’s ever have seen. I’m pretty sure the fee on this card was 0.

I saw a quick story about the Ruth card on my local news outlet, so yes, lots of free advertising for REA. The story was post auction and indicated the Ruth card sold for the 3rd highest price for a baseball card behind the 52T Mantle (at $12M+) and the T206 Wags at $7.25M.

[calvindog]

Originally Posted by raulus

HA.

Typically an AH is not operated on an eleemosynary basis. My assumption is that they would get at least 5% of the $6M hammer. Said another way, the AH might only keep 5% of the 20% BP. But I guess you never know on a piece like this precisely what the parties negotiated.

REA received more publicity than it’s ever gotten in its entire existence with this Ruth card - and Brian was fantastic with it. REA made huge strides in reaching areas of the marketplace that no other AH besides Christie’s and Sotheby’s ever have seen. I’m pretty sure the fee on this card was 0.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by calvindog

REA received more publicity than it’s ever gotten in its entire existence with this Ruth card - and Brian was fantastic with it. REA made huge strides in reaching areas of the marketplace that no other AH besides Christie’s and Sotheby’s ever have seen. I’m pretty sure the fee on this card was 0.

Awesome. If so, then that's a great deal to the consignor.

[Vintageclout]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

This card was purchased for about $5mm less than two years ago. Last night it sells for $7.2mm - a $2.2mm (44%) increase in two years, which is 22% per year. How on god’s green earth is that result a “failure”? It isn’t. Instead, there was a ton of hype and the result did not meet the hype. But the result was very good. The hype was BS. The BN Ruth was worth $5mm two years ago. Now it’s worth $7.2mm. Seems to me, that is pretty darn positive

Spot on Ryan! Also, consider that the BN Ruth (in the exact same grade) outperformed the SGC 3 T206 Wagner also sold by REA a few years ago by $0.6 million. The Wagner & 1952 Topps Mantle are the undisputed cornerstone cards in the hobby. Thus, this $7.2 million sale should be viewed as a major hobby success. We all got caught up in the “hype” of a potential eight-figure+ sale (including myself), ultimately tainting a solid $7.2 million pricing point. Crazy.

[Republicaninmass]

164 die hard people in the hobby of soley vintage aportscards were wrong, by a lot. About half before the BP.

Me shudders to think what will happen to all these bargain prices and value blue chip chasers.



Keep collecting what you like

[brian1961]

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

164 die hard people in the hobby of soley vintage aportscards were wrong, by a lot. About half before the BP.

Me shudders to think what will happen to all these bargain prices and value blue chip chasers.



Keep collecting what you like

T3d----My cardboard conundrum continues to be the cards I really like keep going up, and up, and up. By all means, not rookie cards; I've never gravitated to that niche, strong as it is. However, the industry continues to produce post-career cards and current Aaron Judge cards I find very attractive. Somehow, my card money continues to be spent. But I love them!!!!! ---Brian Powell