1952T Mantle price drops

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Fred

So, what's next?

Are Ruths, Cobbs, Wagners, WoJos and Mattys dropping this much? Sorry, I don't follow these trends too closely.

It depends. It seems to me that almost every “commodity card” of these players has seen a drop since the 2021. To me, a “commodity card” is something rather common and easy to obtain - like a common back t206. Let’s say cards that have over 200 graded examples. The thing about these players, however, is they have very few commodity cards. Aside from T206, T205, and 1933 Goudey, I don’t think these players are on many (if any) issues with over 200 graded. In my experience, these players in tougher/rarer issues are generally holding value or up, rather than down, recently.

Point is- there is real scarcity here that has not (yet) outstripped the demand. Plus, there is a certain type of buyer for these cards/players, and they are rarely flippers/Johnny-come-latelies, meaning they buy to hold and fewer examples come to market. There is relative safety in these players/cards. They are less liquid, and they may not move up (or down) as quickly. They are the tortoises of cards, and I like the tortoise- he ended up beating that speedy rabbit!

All that said, one issue with these players/types of cards is that the market may get easily flooded. In the past few months, about 4-6 really pretty 1917 Ruth’s came to auction. This is a super tough card - maybe 50 graded total. It’s too many at one time and they sold cheap, in my opinion (still large numbers). Same thing is currently happening with PWCC and all the rare back t206s. I expect Wagner prices will come in some as people see the crazy hammer prices on blue wagners and more and more hit the auction block. This will not cause a crater in prices and the phenomena will be temporary, but the problem with these cards/issues is that the market can be easily flooded by a mere 3-5 examples, making them a relative/temporary commodity card for what it is