1952T Mantle price drops

[Fred]

The price of a '52 Mantle in "8" grade dropping doesn't affect me because that card in that condition is so far out of my collecting budget stratosphere that it means nothing.

What would be interesting to see is if this trickles down to the lower grades. If 1s and 2s are impacted by similar percentage drops, then that would be an interesting correlation. In that case, my guess would be the entire card market is dropping back. As I always mention in these threads, I couldn't care less because it's card board and not part of an "investment" portfolio (to me).

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Fred

The price of a '52 Mantle in "8" grade dropping doesn't affect me because that card in that condition is so far out of my collecting budget stratosphere that it means nothing.

What would be interesting to see is if this trickles down to the lower grades. If 1s and 2s are impacted by similar percentage drops, then that would be an interesting correlation. In that case, my guess would be the entire card market is dropping back. As I always mention in these threads, I couldn't care less because it's card board and not part of an "investment" portfolio (to me).

The second screen in Ryan's post are PSA 2 numbers.

[Fred]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

The second screen in Ryan's post are PSA 2 numbers.

Phil - Thank you.

Second screen shot in post# 16

Quite the drop in a short period of time for PSA2 52T Mantles. I'm guessing some would like to believe that the cards sold earlier (higher $$) were just nicer examples of a "2" grade.

So, what's next?

Are Ruths, Cobbs, Wagners, WoJos and Mattys dropping this much? Sorry, I don't follow these trends too closely.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Fred

So, what's next?

Are Ruths, Cobbs, Wagners, WoJos and Mattys dropping this much? Sorry, I don't follow these trends too closely.

It depends. It seems to me that almost every “commodity card” of these players has seen a drop since the 2021. To me, a “commodity card” is something rather common and easy to obtain - like a common back t206. Let’s say cards that have over 200 graded examples. The thing about these players, however, is they have very few commodity cards. Aside from T206, T205, and 1933 Goudey, I don’t think these players are on many (if any) issues with over 200 graded. In my experience, these players in tougher/rarer issues are generally holding value or up, rather than down, recently.

Point is- there is real scarcity here that has not (yet) outstripped the demand. Plus, there is a certain type of buyer for these cards/players, and they are rarely flippers/Johnny-come-latelies, meaning they buy to hold and fewer examples come to market. There is relative safety in these players/cards. They are less liquid, and they may not move up (or down) as quickly. They are the tortoises of cards, and I like the tortoise- he ended up beating that speedy rabbit!

All that said, one issue with these players/types of cards is that the market may get easily flooded. In the past few months, about 4-6 really pretty 1917 Ruth’s came to auction. This is a super tough card - maybe 50 graded total. It’s too many at one time and they sold cheap, in my opinion (still large numbers). Same thing is currently happening with PWCC and all the rare back t206s. I expect Wagner prices will come in some as people see the crazy hammer prices on blue wagners and more and more hit the auction block. This will not cause a crater in prices and the phenomena will be temporary, but the problem with these cards/issues is that the market can be easily flooded by a mere 3-5 examples, making them a relative/temporary commodity card for what it is

[packs]

Ruth Goudeys may have dropped from an all time pandemic high but they're still at general all time highs when you consider the pre-pandemic market and what it still costs to add the card today.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by packs

Ruth Goudeys may have dropped from an all time pandemic high but they're still at general all time highs when you consider the pre-pandemic market and what it still costs to add the card today.

Goudey Ruths have come down some.
I paid way up for this one, but the commodity cards with great eye appeal are not going to see the drops of mediocre looking cards.

[Yoda]

Originally Posted by Leon

Goudey Ruths have come down some.
I paid way up for this one, but the commodity cards with great eye appeal are not going to see the drops of mediocre looking cards.

Leon, I have a hard time calling your beautiful Goudey Ruth a commodity card. To me, commodities are pork bellies and soy beans.

[Seven]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Point is- there is real scarcity here that has not (yet) outstripped the demand. Plus, there is a certain type of buyer for these cards/players, and they are rarely flippers/Johnny-come-latelies, meaning they buy to hold and fewer examples come to market. There is relative safety in these players/cards. They are less liquid, and they may not move up (or down) as quickly. They are the tortoises of cards, and I like the tortoise- he ended up beating that speedy rabbit!

The buyers of those cards certainly aren't the "New Kid in Town"

In general though, I agree with the sentiment. There's a scarcity when it comes to certain cards. The Mantle, while very popular, is far from scarce, when you compare it to some of the premier pre-war issues of certain players. Yes it is "The" post-war card, but you'll never find a shortage of it.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

It depends. It seems to me that almost every “commodity card” of these players has seen a drop since the 2021. To me, a “commodity card” is something rather common and easy to obtain - like a common back t206. Let’s say cards that have over 200 graded examples.

I think of a commodity card as being any card that is effectively as good as cash. A card with both sufficient supply and demand. One that trades often enough that it is easy to comp and easy to predict the hammer price of the next sale.

To your other point about waves of similar cards hitting the market at the same time, this is something that the market doesn't seem to understand very well. Sure, keen observers recognize that it has some effect, but I think it brings about inefficiencies in the market that aren't well understood in general. For example, if you want to know whether a card has "hit the bottom" or not, you can get a pretty good idea by looking at the time series of the number of days between sales and plot it in a chart, then take the derivative of the slope of that curve and you can get a pretty good idea of when a card is in a bubble that is about to pop or if it's at it's floor by comparing that time series against what other cards' time series with similar pop counts look like, or by comparing it to what it otherwise looks like during "normal" times.

[Snowman]

A huge portion of our market is made up of dealers/flippers. Much more so than most people probably realize. It's actually the lifeblood of why the auction formats generally work well in this hobby. They provide a baseline value for cards that would otherwise slip through the cracks. Many despise "flippers", but the truth is, they're a sign of a healthy market. You want them around. They're the worms in our soil. Most cards will never sell below ~70% of comps or so because an army of dealers/flippers peruse the auction sites competing for cards to flip. When a card sells for full comps or higher, it's going to an end collector (or at least an "investor").

But what happens when the market has a correction is that the end collectors stop buying for whatever reason (e.g., fear, money supply, something shinier, etc.), and the dealers begin to experience a slowdown in their cash flow. They will sustain this for some amount of time, acting as a buffer to the cardboard economy as they hold out on pricing and attempt to weather the storm, but if the disruption in demand sustains for long enough, they will be forced to cut their losses and they will also stop competing for cards to flip from the auction sites. The worms leave the soil, so-to-speak. When this happens, the backbone of the hobby (a stable buying & selling economy and "commodity cards") inevitably breaks, and collapse ensues.

[brunswickreeves]

Originally Posted by Snowman

I think of a commodity card as being any card that is effectively as good as cash. A card with both sufficient supply and demand. One that trades often enough that it is easy to comp and easy to predict the hammer price of the next sale.

To your other point about waves of similar cards hitting the market at the same time, this is something that the market doesn't seem to understand very well. Sure, keen observers recognize that it has some effect, but I think it brings about inefficiencies in the market that aren't well understood in general. For example, if you want to know whether a card has "hit the bottom" or not, you can get a pretty good idea by looking at the time series of the number of days between sales and plot it in a chart, then take the derivative of the slope of that curve and you can get a pretty good idea of when a card is in a bubble that is about to pop or if it's at it's floor by comparing that time series against what other cards' time series with similar pop counts look like, or by comparing it to what it otherwise looks like during "normal" times.

How is this derived when there isn’t a large enough sample size to warrant statistical significance? M101-2 Sporting News Supplements come to mind.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by brunswickreeves

How is this derived when there isn’t a large enough sample size to warrant statistical significance? M101-2 Sporting News Supplements come to mind.

It wouldn't really help much with cards that only sell every couple of years or so. For something like that, I would find proxy cards and extrapolate.