Follow up - Buying Vintage Cards – Buy Now or Buy In 12 Months

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by Musashi

Just curious, are you holding off because you're trying to time the market bottom? Because the reasons you are citing seem to be a good argument to hold off selling, but increase buying

Not time, but just get market value in relation to prices over the next few years. You can never time the market.

I see what you are saying as well. It may be a good time to buy for some, but not for me for what I am seeing.

[Johnny630]

I agree with op views...to me at this particular time if someone was to ask me what’s true market fair value of a any of the cards right now? Could it be coming back to pre Covid levels ? That I doubt but not on second tier or low grade cards. Would it be proper to this it’s 20-30% above pre Covid numbers but not near the highs of 21/22 ? I honestly have no idea none of us do. I don’t know what a fair price is right now. I’m closer to the 20-30% higher then pre Covid numbers which would be far more reasonable growth rate over the past couple years then what we have recently see.

For my theory above I tend to agree with the op, myself I’m waiting for the stabling in pricing..don’t know if that’s 12 months or not could be or could be sooner or longer ..either way I don’t know so I’m waiting and watching closely.

[Rhotchkiss]

I will repost what I said in that earlier thread, highlighting what I think best reflects my opinion on the matter:

Regarding the question of the thread, who the hell knows. As many have said, I think it depends on who you are buying, why you are buying, and how long you intend to keep what you are buying. Personally, for the first time in close to decade, this year I have sold more than I bought. But I have been strategic about what I have sold and bought- I have sold off mainly rare t206s and bought almost exclusively Ruth, Wagner, Cobb, Jackson, Young, Matty and things I need for my T3 and 1933 Goudey sets. I don’t know if my timing is good or bad- I will tell you in 2-4 years! However, I am pretty sure that if I can hold for 10-15 years, timing won’t matter- what you buy is more important then when you buy it if you can hold for a long time.

[anchorednw]

What you buy is more important then when you buy it if you can hold for a long time.

+1 This.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Asking whether to buy now or later is trying to time the market. Good luck with that. The world is littered with people who have been burned trying to figure out where markets are going. Why ask, all you're going to get is either people being smart and saying I have no idea, or people pontificating as if they know something.

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Asking whether to buy now or later is trying to time the market. Good luck with that. The world is littered with people who have been burned trying to figure out where markets are going. Why ask, all you're going to get is either people being smart and saying I have no idea, or people pontificating as if they know something.

I enjoy seeing opinions and obtaining information from these types of posts.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by parkplace33

I enjoy seeing opinions and obtaining information from these types of posts.

You know what they say about opinions.

[Leon]

+1 spot on post.
With what I collect I need to buy something when I see it, or I might not see it for years, if ever again. And while I don't want to lose money, if I see something I really want, I will (in my mind) overpay for it. I can make money faster than seeing another of what I am buying. All of this in the context of my piggy bank, which only has pennys and nickels in it.
A '52 Mantle can be had anytime, in almost any shape, if you have the money.
But if you have a million dollars, you still can't buy one of these, unless it's for sale. (I realize it's not super valuable.)

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I will repost what I said in that earlier thread, highlighting what I think best reflects my opinion on the matter:

Regarding the question of the thread, who the hell knows. As many have said, I think it depends on who you are buying, why you are buying, and how long you intend to keep what you are buying. Personally, for the first time in close to decade, this year I have sold more than I bought. But I have been strategic about what I have sold and bought- I have sold off mainly rare t206s and bought almost exclusively Ruth, Wagner, Cobb, Jackson, Young, Matty and things I need for my T3 and 1933 Goudey sets. I don’t know if my timing is good or bad- I will tell you in 2-4 years! However, I am pretty sure that if I can hold for 10-15 years, timing won’t matter- what you buy is more important then when you buy it if you can hold for a long time.

[ValKehl]

Originally Posted by Leon

+1 spot on post.
With what I collect I need to buy something when I see it, or I might not see it for years, if ever again. And while I don't want to lose money, if I see something I really want, I will (in my mind) overpay for it. I can make money faster than seeing another of what I am buying. All of this in the context of my piggy bank, which only has pennys and nickels in it.
A '52 Mantle can be had anytime, in almost any shape, if you have the money.
But if you have a million dollars, you still can't buy one of these, unless it's for sale. (I realize it's not super valuable.)

+1 to what Leon said. While my very scarce 1947 Champs Hats example is in nowhere near as nice condition as Leon's example nor is mine autographed, I treasure it because Mickey Vernon was my second most favorite Washington Senator when I was a kid.

[raulus]

Congrats on making a call. Hopefully you have the conviction to stick with it!

There’s nothing wrong with making a decision and going for it. I applaud you for going against the grain a bit, at least compared to a good cross section of the hobby that can’t fathom the idea of waiting.