Follow up - Buying Vintage Cards – Buy Now or Buy In 12 Months
 

About 3 weeks ago, I made the following post about whether to buy cards now or wait a year:

https://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=341344

Interesting thoughts from Net54. I did want to follow up and say that I am going to wait 6-12 months to see where the market is at that time, unless something comes up I can't pass up. Heard from a lot of people and made this decision due to three reasons.

1. The amount of collectors/dealers/whoever trying to sell right now is the most I have seen in years. That makes me nervous at this moment.

2. World events. A lot going on right now and I want to see what happens.

3. Collector sentiment right now seems low in my opinion.

I may reassess in a few months, but want to see how things play out.

Just curious, are you holding off because you're trying to time the market bottom? Because the reasons you are citing seem to be a good argument to hold off selling, but increase buying

Not time, but just get market value in relation to prices over the next few years. You can never time the market.

I see what you are saying as well. It may be a good time to buy for some, but not for me for what I am seeing.

I agree with op views...to me at this particular time if someone was to ask me what’s true market fair value of a any of the cards right now? Could it be coming back to pre Covid levels ? That I doubt but not on second tier or low grade cards. Would it be proper to this it’s 20-30% above pre Covid numbers but not near the highs of 21/22 ? I honestly have no idea none of us do. I don’t know what a fair price is right now. I’m closer to the 20-30% higher then pre Covid numbers which would be far more reasonable growth rate over the past couple years then what we have recently see.

For my theory above I tend to agree with the op, myself I’m waiting for the stabling in pricing..don’t know if that’s 12 months or not could be or could be sooner or longer ..either way I don’t know so I’m waiting and watching closely.

I will repost what I said in that earlier thread, highlighting what I think best reflects my opinion on the matter:

Regarding the question of the thread, who the hell knows. As many have said, I think it depends on who you are buying, why you are buying, and how long you intend to keep what you are buying. Personally, for the first time in close to decade, this year I have sold more than I bought. But I have been strategic about what I have sold and bought- I have sold off mainly rare t206s and bought almost exclusively Ruth, Wagner, Cobb, Jackson, Young, Matty and things I need for my T3 and 1933 Goudey sets. I don’t know if my timing is good or bad- I will tell you in 2-4 years! However, I am pretty sure that if I can hold for 10-15 years, timing won’t matter- what you buy is more important then when you buy it if you can hold for a long time.

Quote:

What you buy is more important then when you buy it if you can hold for a long time.

+1 This.

Asking whether to buy now or later is trying to time the market. Good luck with that. The world is littered with people who have been burned trying to figure out where markets are going. Why ask, all you're going to get is either people being smart and saying I have no idea, or people pontificating as if they know something.

1947 Champs Hats
 

+1 spot on post.
With what I collect I need to buy something when I see it, or I might not see it for years, if ever again. And while I don't want to lose money, if I see something I really want, I will (in my mind) overpay for it. I can make money faster than seeing another of what I am buying. All of this in the context of my piggy bank, which only has pennys and nickels in it.
A '52 Mantle can be had anytime, in almost any shape, if you have the money.
But if you have a million dollars, you still can't buy one of these, unless it's for sale. (I realize it's not super valuable.)

I enjoy seeing opinions and obtaining information from these types of posts.

You know what they say about opinions. :D

Trying to time it is fun, especially if it isn't a giant piece of a portfolio and you can indulge yourself. For me, the more important thing is to have an exit strategy and not let the greed overwhelm it. If I want to have a card until I die, that's one thing, but if I don't, I prefer to set a price level I will be happy with, get out when it hits, and put the proceeds into the next deal, preferably something that has not risen lately or that has a proven track record. The odds are that a mainstream card that skyrockets in value for some reason (HOF election, documentary, etc.) will come back down, so I can cash in now and then wait to reacquire it. My favorite basketball player as a kid was Dr. J, Julius Erving. I bought an Erving rookie card before the price run on basketball, watched it soar during the craze for basketball cards, and pulled the trigger on a sale when it was over $5,000. It eventually crested over $9,000 a few months later. I have zero regrets that I didn’t hold on longer and eke out that remaining profit. I made crazy money that I reinvested into vintage cards because they were stagnant at the time. At this point, the card has steadily declined to about $2,000, which is still about 2x its starting price. If I wanted to reacquire it now, given the trends I would wait and see for a few more months. Worst case, I pay about what it costs now, but best case, I buy it for half that.

1947 Champs Hats Premiums
 

+1 to what Leon said. While my very scarce 1947 Champs Hats example is in nowhere near as nice condition as Leon's example nor is mine autographed, I treasure it because Mickey Vernon was my second most favorite Washington Senator when I was a kid.

Congrats on making a call. Hopefully you have the conviction to stick with it!

There’s nothing wrong with making a decision and going for it. I applaud you for going against the grain a bit, at least compared to a good cross section of the hobby that can’t fathom the idea of waiting.

Please explain

Opinions are like good advice

Good advice costs nothing, and it's worth the price
I sincerely doubt
That the world could do without
My good advice

Opinions are like certain body parts, everyone has one.

Back to the OP. I'd say waiting a bit on mainstream cards is not a bad idea. Prices have definitely been slipping the last several months. Something that doesn't come up for sale too often, well, you more or less have to grab it while the item is there to grab.

+1 This all day.

I feel it depends on whether you are in the game short term or the long haul. If the latter, then hold off while the market cools unless ,of course, you run across something that will make your life complete.
Also, I believe there is a direct correlation between card prices and the stock market and right now the market is doing just fine.
But, like life, anything can turn on a dime.

With vintage some of the things you want to buy know may not be on the market in a year it s not quite so simple. It depends on what type of items you are searching for to add to the collection. Also it’s impossible to state as not everycard always moves up and down together. Some things go up while others go down and vice versa. It’s not all always connected like it has seemed to be the past couple years.