Will the new Heritage and REA tobacco finds impact the market?

[parkplace33]

Interesting news broke this week about Heritage and REA finding larger group of prewar tobacco cards:

https://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=341835

and

https://twitter.com/REAOnline/status...7Ctwgr%5Etweet

My question is does the auction of these tobacco cards impact the tobacco card market? I remember what the Black Swamp find has done to the E98 market, could the same happen here? Or will demand continue to exceed the supply?

Either way, it will be interesting to see how these do in the respective auction houses.

[oldjudge]

T206s are common cards and now they are just a little more common

[packs]

Did the Black Swamp find lower all E98's or only high grade copies?

I would actually prefer a lower grade copy in place of a Swamp card, but not sure they came down the same way.

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

T206s are common cards and now they are just a little more common

Basically agree here.

T206 are the 1988 Topps of the prewar world and likely had a similar run over the years of production. E98 just isn't comparable as it was nowhere close on quantity in circulation. These finds have notable effect on what may have been considered a scarce card or issue, not necessarily a common one.

Now what it does effect is temporary sales prices at the time if they flood the market. If there's 25 serious lookers for a specific card and 25 available, then obviously the auction prices will be low. We all know the supply for T206 is huge and other than a couple cards there are more than enough for everyone who wants one. The supply and demand curve on a plentiful item is much more evident in a short cycle with so many on the market and then levels back as the availability at one time returns to the normal levels.

[Lucas00]

Agree with other folks so far, they aren't very rare cards to begin with.

I don't see any kind of price change incoming.

[Rhotchkiss]

I think these PWCC, fire-sale, rare-back auctions are much more damaging to T206 values than the recent Heritage and REA finds will be.

As others have mentioned, its all about supply and demand. There are many T206s out there already. This means there is a already a lot of supply, and it appears there is already reciprocal demand. I don't think these finds bring so much new supply that it materially impacts demand.

On the other hand, these PWCC fire sales are killing the rare-back supply-demand dynamic and have resulted in a, likely mid-term, deflation of prices. For example, If 1 out of every 100 people collects sports cards, and 5 out of every 100 card collectors collect T206s, that means 0.05% of the population collects T206s (I am sure it is actually WAY smaller). Now, lets suppose that only 25% of T206 collectors care enough about the backs to pay up for a Lenox, we are talking about 0.0125% of the population who is interested in T206s with Lenox backs.

The PSA Pop report shows 293 Lenox graded (regardless of brown vs black) and the SGC Pop Report shows 259 Lenox graded. Thats only 552 Lenox (notwithstanding crossovers and there have been a ton thanks to David Hall). That's a very small supply to satiate the rather tiny demand. In one single auction, PWCC unloads 63 different Lenox cards -- about 11.5% of the entire graded population. That is way too much supply for the meager demand. Sure, seeing the opportunity, some not otherwise inclined to go after a Lenox did in this case, but they were likely rewarded with a relative steal.

Its all supply and demand, and there must be demand for the supply -- you could have a unique, 1 of 1 item, but if nobody wants it, its worthless. That is why rarity does not equal value.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by Lucas00

Agree with other folks so far, they aren't very rare cards to begin with.

I don't see any kind of price change incoming.

Agreed great finds but there is so many already out there a few more will not impact (except perhaps in short term for very short time) unless they sell them across several auctions over the span of months and in that case we will see no difference

[bbcard1]

One of the reasons T206s are so popular is that they are attainable. Having a couple of finds may actually expand the market.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Somehow prices will go UP.

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Somehow prices will go UP.

Only on the cards you want Peter...

[Fred]

It would be really nice if Heritage did a full accounting of all cards and cataloged it all for hobbyist to see. A back story about where the original collector grew up and how the cards came to the market would be interesting and possibly draw a little more attention to them.

Wouldn't it be cool to see a completed list/table of the back distribution? Anybody want to guess how many common Piedmonts in this find?

Wouldn't 3,300 T206 cards would be a drop in the bucket when considering the full population of this series? It's not like someone coming out with 3,300 Old Judges (N172s). My guess is that the find wouldn't have much of an impact on the price of T206s.

If Heritage played their cards right (sorry about that), then they could promote this collection by having the cards TPG label indicate "The Blah Blah Find/Collection" on the grading flips. I'm sure it wouldn't cost them anything to do this. The TPG and Heritage could try to cash in on this.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Fred

It would be really nice if Heritage did a full accounting of all cards and cataloged it all for hobbyist to see. A back story about where the original collector grew up and how the cards came to the market would be interesting and possibly draw a little more attention to them.

I would love to see AHs do stuff like this. Do collectors care enough about these things, though? So many of them just seem to care about the number on the slab and not much else...

[raulus]

I’m always a little wary about groupthink, particularly when our thinking is largely self-reinforcing, but I’m inclined to agree that the T206 supply is just so huge and the demand is so deep that these finds will be a drop in the ocean.

Open any recent major auction catalog (or electronic version), and you have to wade through a sea of T206s. These finds just aren’t big enough to move the needle on an existing supply that is already so gigantic.

I suppose if these finds included a gigantic increase in the supply of rare pieces by adding 1,000 Wagners, Doyle errors, or brown Lenox cards then we could talk about a serious market impact. But this isn’t it.

[G1911]

A small fraction of a percent population increase is obviously not going to change anything.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

Only on the cards you want Peter...

No doubt.

[MVSNYC]

Originally Posted by G1911

A small fraction of a percent population increase is obviously not going to change anything.

This.

[butchie_t]

Find me any T-206’s with 1988 Topps prices and I’ll buy’em all.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I think these PWCC, fire-sale, rare-back auctions are much more damaging to T206 values than the recent Heritage and REA finds will be.

As others have mentioned, its all about supply and demand. There are many T206s out there already. This means there is a already a lot of supply, and it appears there is already reciprocal demand. I don't think these finds bring so much new supply that it materially impacts demand.

On the other hand, these PWCC fire sales are killing the rare-back supply-demand dynamic and have resulted in a, likely mid-term, deflation of prices. For example, If 1 out of every 100 people collects sports cards, and 5 out of every 100 card collectors collect T206s, that means 0.05% of the population collects T206s (I am sure it is actually WAY smaller). Now, lets suppose that only 25% of T206 collectors care enough about the backs to pay up for a Lenox, we are talking about 0.0125% of the population who is interested in T206s with Lenox backs.

The PSA Pop report shows 293 Lenox graded (regardless of brown vs black) and the SGC Pop Report shows 259 Lenox graded. Thats only 552 Lenox (notwithstanding crossovers and there have been a ton thanks to David Hall). That's a very small supply to satiate the rather tiny demand. In one single auction, PWCC unloads 63 different Lenox cards -- about 11.5% of the entire graded population. That is way too much supply for the meager demand. Sure, seeing the opportunity, some not otherwise inclined to go after a Lenox did in this case, but they were likely rewarded with a relative steal.

Its all supply and demand, and there must be demand for the supply -- you could have a unique, 1 of 1 item, but if nobody wants it, its worthless. That is why rarity does not equal value.

Cases like this are generally temporary price pressures. Dealers/flippers are often the winning bidders when cards under sell, and they will hold out on moving them until they receive what they believe are fair market values for them. I wouldn't worry about longer term ramifications. Those are driven by collectors.

I think the more important question is whether set collecting will still be pursued by future generations.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

I would love to see AHs do stuff like this. Do collectors care enough about these things, though? So many of them just seem to care about the number on the slab and not much else...

No, effectively, nobody cares.

I had a rare Lebron James & Michael Jordan dual auto Lebron RC that I consigned last year. I also had the original pack of was pulled from and the cards that were in that pack along with the story of which card shop in Florida it was pulled from. Heritage said to just send the card and to throw the rest away.

[Schlesinj]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

I would love to see AHs do stuff like this. Do collectors care enough about these things, though? So many of them just seem to care about the number on the slab and not much else...

I think narrative matters.

The Uncle Jimmy Story is an example that brought a large premium and the average or dormant collector came came out and spent money. Me being one of those.

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by Schlesinj

I think narrative matters.

The Uncle Jimmy Story is an example that brought a large premium and the average or dormant collector came came out and spent money. Me being one of those.

I think a lot of the narratives are exaggerations or compete bs. No one ever says my uncle took them from an old lady down the street whose husband dutiful collected them for decades but dropped dead on his way to the office one morning.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

I think a lot of the narratives are exaggerations or compete bs. No one ever says my uncle took them from an old lady down the street whose husband dutiful collected them for decades but dropped dead on his way to the office one morning.

I politely disagree. Exceptional provenance brings exceptional prices.
.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Leon

Exceptional provenance brings exceptional prices.
.

+1. I think vintage collectors do care (often a lot) about provenance, especially when the card is rare. For example, there can be little doubt that Charlie Sheen and Joe Garagiola’s T206 Wagners sold for a premium bc of prior ownership. Yes, I understand t206 Wagners are special, but the same attitude applies down the number line- most vintage collectors would like to know the chain of ownership on cards and would likely pay a premium for cards with an identifiable chain of ownership and/or for items that come from prestigious collections/collectors.

[anchorednw]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

...an identifiable chain of ownership and/or for items that come from prestigious collections/collectors.

Does this mean you are opening up the vaults for us? (Fingers crossed)

[MVSNYC]

Ryan and I have spoken about this prior...here's my feelings on provenance.

In the world of memorabilia (Game Used Bats, Uniforms, Gloves, etc). Provenance is very important. Chain of ownership is very important. And photo-matching is even more important...it's king. Placing that item in the player's hands is paramount in establishing authenticity and value.

In the world of cards, IMO, provenance adds a cute, even "cool" narrative to the story, BUT if it's authenticated by PSA or SGC that story becomes less relevant and important. Value is almost mostly tied to if it's authentic and grade/condition.

Where it's different, as noted in Ryan's examples, is CELEBRITY ownership. That does increase an item's value, totally.

Edited to add: For the record, I do agree with Ryan, where an item coming from a prestigious collection can add some value. That can add more value versus an item from an attic find named after someone's Uncle.

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

+1. I think vintage collectors do care (often a lot) about provenance, especially when the card is rare. For example, there can be little doubt that Charlie Sheen and Joe Garagiola’s T206 Wagners sold for a premium bc of prior ownership. Yes, I understand t206 Wagners are special, but the same attitude applies down the number line- most vintage collectors would like to know the chain of ownership on cards and would likely pay a premium for cards with an identifiable chain of ownership and/or for items that come from prestigious collections/collectors.

There is a huge difference in my mind between provenance and some fanciful story about how someone found a miraculous box of 125 year old cards supposedly in a barn attic when they moved something.

Maybe the writers of auction catalog stories are the last completely honest folks in the industry.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by MVSNYC

Ryan and I have spoken about this prior...here's my feelings on provenance.

In the world of memorabilia (Game Used Bats, Uniforms, Gloves, etc). Provenance is very important. Chain of ownership is very important. And photo-matching is even more important...it's king. Placing that item in the player's hands is paramount in establishing authenticity and value.

In the world of cards, IMO, provenance adds a cute, even "cool" narrative to the story, BUT if it's authenticated by PSA or SGC that story becomes less relevant and important. Value is almost mostly tied to if it's authentic and grade/condition.

Where it's different, as noted in Ryan's examples, is CELEBRITY ownership. That does increase an item's value, totally.

Edited to add: For the record, I do agree with Ryan, where an item coming from a prestigious collection can add some value. That can add more value versus an item from an attic find named after someone's Uncle.

I would pay more for these cards because I know who first collected them. I am the 2nd "family" to own them since they were collected by the gentleman's grandfather. They came from the T206s that were auctioned on the front page, for several months. They are still raw but will find themsleves in CGC holders eventually. Some of the authenticators do a horrible job, imo, so take grades from them with a grain of salt. I don't collect numbers on plastic though.

[MVSNYC]

Leon, we don't have to agree on everything (although we usually do).

I wouldn't pay more for these because the originally owner/family is known. Again, cool story, but I wouldn't pay a premium for that story.

BTW, very nice T206s.

[darwinbulldog]

I think the effect will be pretty negligible. You'd be hard pressed to find anything from 1910 that's more common than T206s.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by MVSNYC

Leon, we don't have to agree on everything (although we usually do).

I wouldn't pay more for these because the originally owner/family is known. Again, cool story, but I wouldn't pay a premium for that story.

BTW, very nice T206s.

It would be a very small premium, but one nonetheless. It's always ok to agree to disagree on things, otherwise we would just be nodding heads LOL...

And to answer the original question, I don't think the finds move prices.

.

[CJinPA]

Originally Posted by packs

Did the Black Swamp find lower all E98's or only high grade copies?

I would actually prefer a lower-grade copy in place of a Swamp card, but not sure they came down the same way.

I've heard this a couple of times from enthusiasts and I just don't understand it. I love the Black Swamp find collection - I don't collect the E98's at all but intend on adding at least one and it will most definitely be a BSF specimen because of the exceptional condition. To each his own - that's what makes this hobby so appealing!

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by CJinPA

I've heard this a couple of times from enthusiasts and I just don't understand it. I love the Black Swamp find collection - I don't collect the E98's at all but intend on adding at least one and it will most definitely be a BSF specimen because of the exceptional condition. To each his own - that's what makes this hobby so appealing!

The find definitely had an affect on the set, there's two camps, original circulation and BSF, personally I'm in the OC camp but there isn't a wrong way to collect the set. I think it would be more clear if BSF was designated as a separate set altogether since there were so many cards in the find. I don't know the exact number of E98s prior to BSF but I would guess it might have doubled the population which has a significant impact to the collecting dynamic prior to the find. Maybe some long time members who were collecting prior to the find can comment on the E98 world back then.

Good luck on your acquisition btw, go for Cobb if you can.