Will the new Heritage and REA tobacco finds impact the market?

[Lucas00]

Agree with other folks so far, they aren't very rare cards to begin with.

I don't see any kind of price change incoming.

[Rhotchkiss]

I think these PWCC, fire-sale, rare-back auctions are much more damaging to T206 values than the recent Heritage and REA finds will be.

As others have mentioned, its all about supply and demand. There are many T206s out there already. This means there is a already a lot of supply, and it appears there is already reciprocal demand. I don't think these finds bring so much new supply that it materially impacts demand.

On the other hand, these PWCC fire sales are killing the rare-back supply-demand dynamic and have resulted in a, likely mid-term, deflation of prices. For example, If 1 out of every 100 people collects sports cards, and 5 out of every 100 card collectors collect T206s, that means 0.05% of the population collects T206s (I am sure it is actually WAY smaller). Now, lets suppose that only 25% of T206 collectors care enough about the backs to pay up for a Lenox, we are talking about 0.0125% of the population who is interested in T206s with Lenox backs.

The PSA Pop report shows 293 Lenox graded (regardless of brown vs black) and the SGC Pop Report shows 259 Lenox graded. Thats only 552 Lenox (notwithstanding crossovers and there have been a ton thanks to David Hall). That's a very small supply to satiate the rather tiny demand. In one single auction, PWCC unloads 63 different Lenox cards -- about 11.5% of the entire graded population. That is way too much supply for the meager demand. Sure, seeing the opportunity, some not otherwise inclined to go after a Lenox did in this case, but they were likely rewarded with a relative steal.

Its all supply and demand, and there must be demand for the supply -- you could have a unique, 1 of 1 item, but if nobody wants it, its worthless. That is why rarity does not equal value.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I think these PWCC, fire-sale, rare-back auctions are much more damaging to T206 values than the recent Heritage and REA finds will be.

As others have mentioned, its all about supply and demand. There are many T206s out there already. This means there is a already a lot of supply, and it appears there is already reciprocal demand. I don't think these finds bring so much new supply that it materially impacts demand.

On the other hand, these PWCC fire sales are killing the rare-back supply-demand dynamic and have resulted in a, likely mid-term, deflation of prices. For example, If 1 out of every 100 people collects sports cards, and 5 out of every 100 card collectors collect T206s, that means 0.05% of the population collects T206s (I am sure it is actually WAY smaller). Now, lets suppose that only 25% of T206 collectors care enough about the backs to pay up for a Lenox, we are talking about 0.0125% of the population who is interested in T206s with Lenox backs.

The PSA Pop report shows 293 Lenox graded (regardless of brown vs black) and the SGC Pop Report shows 259 Lenox graded. Thats only 552 Lenox (notwithstanding crossovers and there have been a ton thanks to David Hall). That's a very small supply to satiate the rather tiny demand. In one single auction, PWCC unloads 63 different Lenox cards -- about 11.5% of the entire graded population. That is way too much supply for the meager demand. Sure, seeing the opportunity, some not otherwise inclined to go after a Lenox did in this case, but they were likely rewarded with a relative steal.

Its all supply and demand, and there must be demand for the supply -- you could have a unique, 1 of 1 item, but if nobody wants it, its worthless. That is why rarity does not equal value.

Cases like this are generally temporary price pressures. Dealers/flippers are often the winning bidders when cards under sell, and they will hold out on moving them until they receive what they believe are fair market values for them. I wouldn't worry about longer term ramifications. Those are driven by collectors.

I think the more important question is whether set collecting will still be pursued by future generations.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by Lucas00

Agree with other folks so far, they aren't very rare cards to begin with.

I don't see any kind of price change incoming.

Agreed great finds but there is so many already out there a few more will not impact (except perhaps in short term for very short time) unless they sell them across several auctions over the span of months and in that case we will see no difference

[bbcard1]

One of the reasons T206s are so popular is that they are attainable. Having a couple of finds may actually expand the market.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Somehow prices will go UP.

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Somehow prices will go UP.

Only on the cards you want Peter...

[Fred]

It would be really nice if Heritage did a full accounting of all cards and cataloged it all for hobbyist to see. A back story about where the original collector grew up and how the cards came to the market would be interesting and possibly draw a little more attention to them.

Wouldn't it be cool to see a completed list/table of the back distribution? Anybody want to guess how many common Piedmonts in this find?

Wouldn't 3,300 T206 cards would be a drop in the bucket when considering the full population of this series? It's not like someone coming out with 3,300 Old Judges (N172s). My guess is that the find wouldn't have much of an impact on the price of T206s.

If Heritage played their cards right (sorry about that), then they could promote this collection by having the cards TPG label indicate "The Blah Blah Find/Collection" on the grading flips. I'm sure it wouldn't cost them anything to do this. The TPG and Heritage could try to cash in on this.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Fred

It would be really nice if Heritage did a full accounting of all cards and cataloged it all for hobbyist to see. A back story about where the original collector grew up and how the cards came to the market would be interesting and possibly draw a little more attention to them.

I would love to see AHs do stuff like this. Do collectors care enough about these things, though? So many of them just seem to care about the number on the slab and not much else...

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

Only on the cards you want Peter...

No doubt.