Vintage card prices: Will 2023-2030 be like 2008-2015?

[raulus]

Just for fun, I recently read a bitcoin future price prediction report, which I think applies to our little world as well:

The price will go up.

Unless it goes down.

Or it might stay the same.

Naturally, they spent a few paragraphs on each case, discussing the future events and factors that might lead to that outcome. I assume these prognosticators must be paid like lawyers - by the word.

Joking aside, as humans, particularly when it comes to future predictions, current events are a huge mental anchor. Our baseline is to start with today, and then tweak a little up or down depending on whether our views are optimistic or pessimistic. It also happens to be a bit safer when it comes to trying to make a call. Nobody is going to tell you that you're crazy, because that's what everyone else is predicting.

And for the most part, predictions here are pretty well in line with that approach. We're only human, after all.

Personally, I've given up on the fool's errand of attempting to predict future prices. If I want it badly enough and I can afford it, then I buy it, even if I'm forced to pay more than I really want to. And if I can't afford it, then I wait patiently for a day that may never come.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by raulus

Personally, I've given up on the fool's errand of attempting to predict future prices.

Well, yes and no. I think anyone with enough experience in the field can handicap certain classes of cards as being good candidates for future appreciation, and others as not so much, and can buy accordingly. The fun is in trying to predict what out of favor classes might be worth buying now, or what items are still below the radar but have a shot at future gains.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Well, yes and no. I think anyone with enough experience in the field can handicap certain classes of cards as being good candidates for future appreciation, and others as not so much, and can buy accordingly. The fun is in trying to predict what out of favor classes might be worth buying now, or what items are still below the radar but have a shot at future gains.

Yes, especially with hindsight.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Yes, especially with hindsight.

Yeah, and that cuts both ways. My Festival of Bric-a-Brac (TM) portfolio has some bad bets in it too. I just look at those as tax losses to harvest in Q4 each year. But I keep making my bets because



I love to pick and I'm a greedy SOB.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Well, yes and no. I think anyone with enough experience in the field can handicap certain classes of cards as being good candidates for future appreciation, and others as not so much, and can buy accordingly. The fun is in trying to predict what out of favor classes might be worth buying now, or what items are still below the radar but have a shot at future gains.

Not to quibble too much here, but I suspect it makes a difference that you’re a lot more adventurous than the average collector when it comes to moving pretty freely between different eras, sports, and flavors (ie cards, memorabilia, pins, tickets, foreign stuff, etc.). With all of those options, there’s plenty of relatively underloved pieces to choose from in trying to guess what might catch fire in the coming years.

Maybe I’m just the boring collector who sticks to a single era, mostly collects a handful of specific players and well-known and well-loved issues, and doesn’t really venture outside of those parameters. So unless I’m going to make a big bet on junk era wax catching fire and tripling in price, there are a lot fewer variables that could drive my possible results in terms of stuff going nuts and taking off.

[Exhibitman]

Whereas I consider "focus" to be a dirty word. Picked up a NASCAR collection last week:

1962 and 1972 Richard Petty postcards



The 1972 is signed.

[brunswickreeves]

I’m no Economist, but holding all things constant, I’m hopeful the US economy continues to chug along creating wealth, unemployment remains relatively low, and the retiring baby boomer generation, new economy entrants, entrepreneurs and highly compensated employees pump money into the economy. Thus grow discretionary income for more charitable giving, as well as volume and price increasing collectibles purchase and enjoyment.

[Leon]

I mostly look at pre war and some early post war cards. Of those, I think the best ones will rise but not as much as they have. Also, not sure if any of the grading, trimmimg etc.. issues will ever impact prices? Probably not.
.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Leon

I mostly look at pre war and some early post war cards. Of those, I think the best ones will rise but not as much as they have. Also, not sure if any of the grading, trimmimg etc.. issues will ever impact prices? Probably not.
.

I agree. Prewar is blue chip. Collectors have fled to value over the last year or so, and us dinosaurs are reaping the (mostly psychological--most of us ain't selling) benefits now. How long it will go on and how sticky the prices will be? Who can say. Right now, though